Fire Bloom .

[moonslav59]

While I recognize that Bill James isn't everyone's cup of tea I still like much of what he said. At the very onset of Free Agency he said that free agency is going to help teams that need one or two players to get over the top - teams that are built through their farm system but are lacking in one position or two - but teams that depend on free agency for their players are going to find that it doesn't work.*

I'm paraphrasing that, of course. I don't have the direct quote nor the time nor the inclination to find it.

 

*Cue up some poster who researches the past 50 years of baseball to find an isolated incident to "prove" James is wrong while ignoring the times he was right.

 

Certainly, this has been the rule way more than the exception.

 

The Sox have never won without at least a couple key FA signings.

 

2004: Manny, Damon & Foulke (Mueller)

 

2007: Manny, Drew & Dice-K (Lugo)

 

2013: Vic, Napoli & Lackey (S Drew, Gomes)

 

2018: Price & JD (Moreland)

 

[Bellhorn04]

While I recognize that Bill James isn't everyone's cup of tea I still like much of what he said. At the very onset of Free Agency he said that free agency is going to help teams that need one or two players to get over the top - teams that are built through their farm system but are lacking in one position or two - but teams that depend on free agency for their players are going to find that it doesn't work.*

I'm paraphrasing that, of course. I don't have the direct quote nor the time nor the inclination to find it.

 

*Cue up some poster who researches the past 50 years of baseball to find an isolated incident to "prove" James is wrong while ignoring the times he was right.

 

Seems like Bill said it right.

[moonslav59]

You misunderstood I said a farm team has never won a World Series that the big league team has to play the games, all it means is you need more than a farm system you need a good team with solid players before you can win anything, I don’t believe Betts Bogey and Devers were still considered minor leagers

 

No, I fully understood your point. Of course no AAA teams play in MLB, so cannot win a MLB ring, but every single team that won a ring did so because they had major contributions from the farm. That was my added response to your point.

 

In the context of the current Sox team, we cannot really expect to compete until we start getting meaningful contributions from the farm, and when judging the effectiveness of our current GM, the context should be applied to why we aren't having parades in November and when judging whether we think the farm is improving, or not.

 

A good farm does not just build itself. While the success of Bloom's farm (and leftovers from DD's) is still speculative, we can view the building of the farm as looking very good, okay or bad, so far. To me, it looks way better and way deeper than 3-6 years ago. I think that has to be part of the total grade we give Bloom, so far, since that was a major priority he was handed.

[Bobe2]

You're certainly correct about that. It was just kind of an ambiguous statement.

 

Good to see you posting more BTW.

 

I come and go, it’s going to get interesting after the series players have three days to opt out or declare free agency and teams five days to make qualifying offer, I think Bogaerts opts out, there are 4 or 5 high quality short stop free agents this year so at least that many teams will be looking for a short stop including the Dodgers

[Bobe2]

No, I fully understood your point. Of course no AAA teams play in MLB, so cannot win a MLB ring, but every single team that won a ring did so because they had major contributions from the farm. That was my added response to your point.

 

In the context of the current Sox team, we cannot really expect to compete until we start getting meaningful contributions from the farm, and when judging the effectiveness of our current GM, the context should be applied to why we aren't having parades in November and when judging whether we think the farm is improving, or not.

 

A good farm does not just build itself. While the success of Bloom's farm (and leftovers from DD's) is still speculative, we can view the building of the farm as looking very good, okay or bad, so far. To me, it looks way better and way deeper than 3-6 years ago. I think that has to be part of the total grade we give Bloom, so far, since that was a major priority he was handed.

Did I say something bad about our farm system, I just pointed out that it’s a supporting character, without the big league team it’s all for nothing

[notin]

I think he makes it until our 2nd or 3rd FA signing.

 

No way.

 

The Sox have to re-add all of the 60 day IL players and then protect the "draftables" like Rafaela...

[notin]

I come and go, it’s going to get interesting after the series players have three days to opt out or declare free agency and teams five days to make qualifying offer, I think Bogaerts opts out, there are 4 or 5 high quality short stop free agents this year so at least that many teams will be looking for a short stop including the Dodgers

 

If the Sox do spend at SS, I'm still holding that it will be Correa.

 

Bogaerts? I will predict Philly. DD has signed him before...

[moonslav59]

Did I say something bad about our farm system, I just pointed out that it’s a supporting character, without the big league team it’s all for nothing

 

I just pointed out there is no big league team without the farm. It wasn't meant to contradict the vice versa.

[moonslav59]

No way.

 

The Sox have to re-add all of the 60 day IL players and then protect the "draftables" like Rafaela...

 

When we add the four on the 60 day IL to the 40 (Sale, Taylor, Houck & maybe Cordero), we'll have 43.

 

Bye Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Strahm & Pham- that brings us to 37.

 

Add Rafaela #38

 

Add Walter #39

 

Add E Valdez #40

 

Add T Ward/ Subtract

 

Add Abreu/ Subtract

 

Add FA1/ Subtract Chang

 

Add FA2/ Subtract C Hamilton (or RHern)

 

Add FA3/ Subtract Cordero

 

Add FA4/Subtract Ort

 

Add FA5/ Subtract Brasier

 

Next (Trade or DFA?)

Seabold

RHernandez (or C Hamilton but not both)

J Reed

E McGee

Hosmer

[dgalehouse]

While I recognize that Bill James isn't everyone's cup of tea I still like much of what he said. At the very onset of Free Agency he said that free agency is going to help teams that need one or two players to get over the top - teams that are built through their farm system but are lacking in one position or two - but teams that depend on free agency for their players are going to find that it doesn't work.*

I'm paraphrasing that, of course. I don't have the direct quote nor the time nor the inclination to find it.

 

*Cue up some poster who researches the past 50 years of baseball to find an isolated incident to "prove" James is wrong while ignoring the times he was right.

 

I am not a fan of Bill James and I can't think of many teams that depend on free agency for their players. I think the most common way to build a winner is through a combination of the farm , trades and free agency. I think the farm prospects can be used either to fill the team's needs or traded for someone who can. But no matter what method you use , you do need to be good at evaluating talent.

[moonslav59]

I am not a fan of Bill James and I can't think of many teams that depend on free agency for their players. I think the most common way to build a winner is through a combination of the farm , trades and free agency. I think the farm prospects can be used either to fill the team's needs or traded for someone who can. But no matter what method you use , you do need to be good at evaluating talent.

 

Depend on free agents "to get over the top."

 

Many teams don't even try to get "over the top," and hence don't depend on free agents much at all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A lot of posters here would agree a deep farm yields both core players and prospect capital to trade for MLB areas of need; which, for the Red Sox rings, was usually pitching.

 

But free agents have a long history of putting teams over the top, whether you call them key or prime, or just Howie Kendrick, the 2019 World Series MVP.

 

Pre-free agency trivia (from an old Baseball Digest, circa 1968): the '67 Impossible Dream Red Sox won the AL pennant with 17 homegrown players on their 25-man roster. They actually did add a free agent that season -- Ken Harrelson -- signed after being released by the A's for bad-mouthing owner Charlie Finely. The Hawk was recruited down the stretch to replace injured slugger Tony Conigliaro, beaned out of the season in mid-August.

 

Unfortunately, Harrelson didn't approximate Tony C's All-Star bat in '67. But the Hawk led the bigs in RBI in '68 and finished third in AL MVP voting.

[moonslav59]

A lot of posters here would agree a deep farm yields both core players and prospect capital to trade for MLB areas of need; which, for the Red Sox rings, was usually pitching.

 

But free agents have a long history of putting teams over the top, whether you call them key or prime, or just Howie Kendrick, the 2019 World Series MVP.

 

Well said, and the flip side highlights just how difficult it is to win when you don't have a deep farm that is yielding core players or providing trade capital to fill some key, high need slots.

 

When you look at the significant prospects we have called up or traded since the Devers call-up in mid 2017, a context becomes apparent to anyone willing to look deep enough at the team situation.

 

It's nearly impossible to build a consistently winning team when your farm gives you, basically just Houck and Dalbec in 5 years.

 

The good news is, that all seems to be changing with the mid 2022 season callups of Casas, Bello, Kelly and quite a few on the immediate horizon.

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to conceive of this team making the playoffs in 2023 without some big moves. As in JH really opening the wallet. But it would seem he hired Bloom to avoid having to do that.

 

It's a conundrum.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hard to conceive of this team making the playoffs in 2023 without some big moves. As in JH really opening the wallet. But it would seem he hired Bloom to avoid having to do that.

 

It's a conundrum.

 

What - no faith in Bloom to swing a six-way trade for an ace starter, a closer, a clean-up man, and a leadoff hitter?

[notin]

It's hard to conceive of this team making the playoffs in 2023 without some big moves. As in JH really opening the wallet. But it would seem he hired Bloom to avoid having to do that.

 

It's a conundrum.

 

The Sox did win 78 games and the stays made the postseason with only 86 wins. So the climb to the postseason shouldn’t be too daunting.

 

But then the roster is in real flux right now. Really outside of 2b, how confident are you to name the starter at any position?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox did win 78 games and the stays made the postseason with only 86 wins. So the climb to the postseason shouldn’t be too daunting.

 

But then the roster is in real flux right now. Really outside of 2b, how confident are you to name the starter at any position?

 

Minion poster: "Bello!"

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox did win 78 games and the stays made the postseason with only 86 wins. So the climb to the postseason shouldn’t be too daunting.

 

But then the roster is in real flux right now. Really outside of 2b, how confident are you to name the starter at any position?

 

Devers at 3b, possibly unhappy because of no extension

Verdugo in LF

 

That's about it.

[notin]

Devers at 3b, possibly unhappy because of no extension

Verdugo in LF

 

That's about it.

 

 

And Kike in either CF or SS.

 

I’m actually not all that confident Verdugo returns. And speculation about Devers is rampant.

 

I suppose if Verdugo does stay, it might only be because the Sox wouldn’t be selling high. But then they didn’t with Benintendi…

[cukes]

Devers at 3b, possibly unhappy because of no extension

Verdugo in LF

 

That's about it.

 

The bat boy is safe to return

[cukes]

What - no faith in Bloom to swing a six-way trade for an ace starter, a closer, a clean-up man, and a leadoff hitter?

 

give Bloom the credit he deserves, he did get VAZ a ring

[notin]

Minion poster: "Bello!"

 

Fair point.

 

I wasn’t referring to the staff and bullpen yet. But Bello feels like a lock for the rotation, along with Pivetta. Sale certainly has a spot if he’s healthy.

 

The bullpen? Beyond Houck and Schreiber I don’t know. Whitlock could be in it, but probably won’t. Zack Kelly will be. And Barnes, unless he’s dealt in a bad contract swap…

[Bellhorn04]

The bat boy is safe to return

 

Are we sure about this?

[moonslav59]

It's hard to conceive of this team making the playoffs in 2023 without some big moves. As in JH really opening the wallet. But it would seem he hired Bloom to avoid having to do that.

 

It's a conundrum.

 

I think Bloom's initial priority was to build up the farm and 40 man roster depth foundations. He was given about $40M AAV to spend for 2021, which isn't bad, but with 15 holes to fill, it was clearly "not enough." The Story signing in March of this year and the current state of the improved farm might mean the priority is starting to shift from farm building to the making the big club into a solid contender.

 

Personally, I think they view 2024 as a "better chance" than 2023, but I don't think that means we are still in "rebuild mode." We can and should make moves designed for 2024 and beyond that also help us improve in 2023. It's a tricky road, and I think many here will be unhappy we "didn't do more" in this upcoming winter.

 

We have a lot of recent prospect graduates and ML ready prospects that are looking at getting some playing time in 2023. It's hard to think of a Red Sox team that is looking at playing maybe 15 prospects/grads while also looking to be a top contender. I think we look to pick 2-3 slots we want to fill with additions on 3+ year contracts and the rest will be 1-2 year place-holder signings, in hopes a prospect steps up and wins the job over the next 1-2 years.

 

This doesn't mean we will suck in 2023. We have some very promising young talent to be optimistic about, and the good thing is, we don't need all 15 to do well, to significantly improve on our 2022 record. If just 4-5 do well and another 4-5 do okay, we might see a very nice team in 2023, assuming the roster additions we make do well.

 

Bloom did okay, last winter by adding Wacha, Strahm, Hill, Refsnyder and to a lesser extent Story. (The Schreiber addition made last year came through, too.)

 

It's too early to be "doom & gloom" over 2023's outlook. We should have over $60M to spend on AAV. That's enough to fill 3-5 slots with some promising talent.

[moonslav59]

The Sox did win 78 games and the stays made the postseason with only 86 wins. So the climb to the postseason shouldn’t be too daunting.

 

But then the roster is in real flux right now. Really outside of 2b, how confident are you to name the starter at any position?

 

1B Casas

2B Story

3B Devers

LF Dugo

CF Kike

 

I'm okay with McGuire at catcher. If we upgrade nicely in 3-4 slots, I'd be okay with Hosmer-Dalbec-Arroyo-EValdez at DH.

 

SP Bello

SP Pivetta

SP/RP Whitlock

RP/SP Houck

RP Schreiber

RP Barnes

[notin]

1B Casas

2B Story

3B Devers

LF Dugo

CF Kike

 

I'm okay with McGuire at catcher. If we upgrade nicely in 3-4 slots, I'd be okay with Hosmer-Dalbec-Arroyo-EValdez at DH.

 

SP Bello

SP Pivetta

SP/RP Whitlock

RP/SP Houck

RP Schreiber

RP Barnes

 

I’m just talking about absolute locks as starters (assuming no one is injured).

 

C - McGuire is the current front runner, but would you really be surprised if the Sox brought in someone to start over him? He’s defensively above average, but his offense in Boston is definitely not sustainable.

 

1b - Casas is the front runner, too. But Hosmer is still here for now. Either one might be the DH.

 

2b - Story until he gets hurt

 

3b - We all hope it’s Devers, but a lot depends on his contract situation. He might get extended, traded, or just play out his last year.

 

SS - Bogaerts’ opting out is extremely likely. Free agent? Will it be a big name like Correa or a stopgap like Segura? Or will Kike move in and hold it down for a year?

 

LF - Verdugo for now, but apparently the Sox were not too happy with his attempts to bulk up and the effect it has on his play offensively and defensively.

 

CF - Most likely Kike. Unless he plays somewhere else, like SS.

 

RF - No front runners. I’m sticking to my prediction of Gallo. But nothing has obviously happened yet.

 

DH - Please not Hosmer. The position is designated hitter, not designated mediocrity.

[Bellhorn04]

DH - Please not Hosmer. The position is designated hitter, not designated mediocrity.

 

Hosmer had an OPS+ of 113 with San Diego this year. Platoon him with Dalbec.

 

Reasoning: a team with our payroll issues almost has to make use of a guy with some ability that we only have to pay minimum wage.

[moonslav59]

I’m just talking about absolute locks as starters (assuming no one is injured).

 

C - McGuire is the current front runner, but would you really be surprised if the Sox brought in someone to start over him? He’s defensively above average, but his offense in Boston is definitely not sustainable.

 

1b - Casas is the front runner, too. But Hosmer is still here for now. Either one might be the DH.

 

2b - Story until he gets hurt

 

3b - We all hope it’s Devers, but a lot depends on his contract situation. He might get extended, traded, or just play out his last year.

 

SS - Bogaerts’ opting out is extremely likely. Free agent? Will it be a big name like Correa or a stopgap like Segura? Or will Kike move in and hold it down for a year?

 

LF - Verdugo for now, but apparently the Sox were not too happy with his attempts to bulk up and the effect it has on his play offensively and defensively.

 

CF - Most likely Kike. Unless he plays somewhere else, like SS.

 

RF - No front runners. I’m sticking to my prediction of Gallo. But nothing has obviously happened yet.

 

DH - Please not Hosmer. The position is designated hitter, not designated mediocrity.

 

Devers, Story, Kike and Dugo are locks for starting positions.

 

It's not a lock, but I'm 99% sure they view Casas as the FT 1Bman for 2023. I doubt we even add a back-up, since we already have Hosmer and Dalbec at min cost. We might not like the idea of not adding insurance, but Casas is the starter.

 

My guess is McGuire is, too, but they did mention adding someone there, so I'm not sure, there.

 

I hope they don't view Refsnyder as a FT RF option, but I'm fine starting the year with him as the 4th OF'er or maybe even platoon RF'er to start the season. (I do hope we add someone there.)

 

I'm more worried about our staff:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____ (Whitlock?)

SP3 Sale (big Q)

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Ward/Seabold/Murphy (Houck/Whitlock)

 

Closer _____

RP2A Houck

RP2B Whilock (SP?)

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 _____

RP6 Barnes

RP7 _____

RP8 Taylor (Health?)/Kelly/German/Brasier/McGee/Reed/Ort/Politi (Converted SP)

 

[moonslav59]

Hosmer had an OPS+ of 113 with San Diego this year. Platoon him with Dalbec.

 

Reasoning: a team with our payroll issues almost has to make use of a guy with some ability that we only have to pay minimum wage.

 

Another reason to start the year with Hosmer/Dalbec (Refsnyder/Arroyo/EValdez) at DH is if we end up being in the race, it's much easier to add a DH at the deadline than a good pitcher, RF'er or SS.

[notin]

Hosmer had an OPS+ of 113 with San Diego this year. Platoon him with Dalbec.

 

Reasoning: a team with our payroll issues almost has to make use of a guy with some ability that we only have to pay minimum wage.

 

If Hosmer does stay for a while, his salary will be a BIG part of it. I expect him to be on the trade block all winter.

 

And once all the other MLB teams pass, he might get a shot at DH.

 

Honestly, I do think his salary makes him a good fit for a deal with Milwaukee as they have their arbitration-crunch. For Adrian Houser? I’d do it…