2022 Bullpen Thread

[JDavis76]

OK, you're being fair then.

 

If the season ended today, I'd rate the Red Sox chances of beating the Jays at 35-40%. But needless to say I'm hoping things look differently by the actual playoffs.

 

I'm not jackson........

[Maxbialystock]

25-30%

 

I'd give them at least 50-50. Yes, I know the playoffs these days are endless, but the Yankees seem to have no weaknesses. They are like the 2018 Sox (who were 11-3 in the postseason), only better.

[JDavis76]

I'd give them at least 50-50. Yes, I know the playoffs these days are endless, but the Yankees seem to have no weaknesses. They are like the 2018 Sox (who were 11-3 in the postseason), only better.

 

Possibly, but I feel there are maybe 4 top teams, the Yanks, 'stros, mets and dodgers. So I think the Yanks have roughly a 1 in 4 chance.

[Maxbialystock]

Possibly, but I feel there are maybe 4 top teams, the Yanks, 'stros, mets and dodgers. So I think the Yanks have roughly a 1 in 4 chance.

 

1. Yankees may not to have to face the Astros.

2. And they certainly won't have to face both the Dodgers and Mets.

3. However, last year the Braves won it all and they finished 88-73 in the regular season. So there is the unexpected.

4. I still think it's wrong not to put this Yankees team at 50-50.

[JDavis76]

1. Yankees may not to have to face the Astros.

2. And they certainly won't have to face both the Dodgers and Mets.

3. However, last year the Braves won it all and they finished 88-73 in the regular season. So there is the unexpected.

4. I still think it's wrong not to put this Yankees team at 50-50.

 

Anything can happen, that's why you play the games.

[notin]

I know the pen is light this week, but is there a reason the Sox are hoping on Silvino “Who?” Bracho to help out Tyler Danish and Hansel Robles in the bullpen?

[Maxbialystock]

Only slightly related to this bullpen thread, I decided to look at some simple stats to see if they could tell me which kind of pitcher is more valuable to a team, an innings-eater (a starter) or a reliever.

 

So the simple stat is individual pitchers' WAR's. Now, before you jump in cry, "unfair, WAR is biased in favor of more innings just as it is biased in favor of more at bats," I would remind you that relievers never have to pitch to the opposing lineup 2 or more times as starters almost always do.

 

Of the top 102 pitching WAR's--from a high of 4.2 to a low of 1.0--in MLB, 28 belong to relievers and 74 to starters.

 

If you divide each of those two numbers by 30, the number of teams in MLB, it says that the average team has one reliever at the WAR 1.0 or higher level, and 2 1/2 starters.

 

The Sox have a pretty decent staff (6th best ERA in MLB), so they have four pitchers in the top 102: three starters (Pivetta 2.4, Wacha 2.1, and Eovaldi 1.3), and one reliever (Schreiber, 1.3).

 

In passing I might also note that in the innumerable discussions about who the closer should be, almost no one (except me) has said Schreiber might be the best fit. I should add that Cora has also not mentioned Schreiber as a possible closer.

[Maxbialystock]

Anything can happen, that's why you play the games.

 

Completely agree and thank goodness for it. "Anything can happen" is what makes us fans.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Only slightly related to this bullpen thread, I decided to look at some simple stats to see if they could tell me which kind of pitcher is more valuable to a team, an innings-eater (a starter) or a reliever.

 

So the simple stat is individual pitchers' WAR's. Now, before you jump in cry, "unfair, WAR is biased in favor of more innings just as it is biased in favor of more at bats," I would remind you that relievers never have to pitch to the opposing lineup 2 or more times as starters almost always do.

 

Of the top 102 pitching WAR's--from a high of 4.2 to a low of 1.0--in MLB, 28 belong to relievers and 74 to starters.

 

If you divide each of those two numbers by 30, the number of teams in MLB, it says that the average team has one reliever at the WAR 1.0 or higher level, and 2 1/2 starters.

 

The Sox have a pretty decent staff (6th best ERA in MLB), so they have four pitchers in the top 102: three starters (Pivetta 2.4, Wacha 2.1, and Eovaldi 1.3), and one reliever (Schreiber, 1.3).

 

In passing I might also note that in the innumerable discussions about who the closer should be, almost no one (except me) has said Schreiber might be the best fit. I should add that Cora has also not mentioned Schreiber as a possible closer.

 

One of my first thoughts this morning, as I relieved what has happened the last 2 games, was the idea of putting Schreiber in as the closer. But again if you take him out of his current role they may not have a lead to protect in the 9th.

[Behindenemylines]

A neg Covid test within 24 hour is way better than a vaccine certificate. A vaccinated person could be festering with Covid and enter Canada with no problem.

 

Agree! The shot mandate does not make any sense at all. Those with the shot can be spreaders. It is frustrating as a fan to see brain dead government policies effect the outcome of games. I do not place any of the blame on the players who have chosen to not take the experimental shot. Live in Jersey and witness the NBA version of this with the New York City mandate that allows road players who did not take the shot play, but not home players.

[Bellhorn04]

One of my first thoughts this morning' date=' as I relieved what has happened the last 2 games, was the idea of putting Schreiber in as the closer. But again if you take him out of his current role they may not have a lead to protect in the 9th.[/quote']

 

Aye, there's the rub.

[notin]

One of my first thoughts this morning' date=' as I relieved what has happened the last 2 games, was the idea of putting Schreiber in as the closer. But again if you take him out of his current role they may not have a lead to protect in the 9th.[/quote']

 

Schreiber is being used like a best reliever should be.

 

In the last two games, he’s faced 6 hitters - Vlad Jr. (twice!), Bichette, Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Gurriel. He held them to 1 for 6 late in the game. And in both cases, if the rest of the Sox bullpen had been as efficient, none of these hitters would have come up again.

 

The problem with Tuesday’s game was leaving Tyler Danish in to face the top of the Jays’ lineup. Not sure who the other options were, however..

[jacksonianmarch]

The thing I love about this Yankee team is that their problems are easily replaceable. We need a corner OFer. There are plenty of guys who are a fit for that. And that’s about it. Cash always finds a trash bin reliever who turns out nails, so I’ll bet he finds that too. But it isn’t like year’s past where our holes were C, CF, SS

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing I love about this Yankee team is that their problems are easily replaceable. We need a corner OFer. There are plenty of guys who are a fit for that. And that’s about it. Cash always finds a trash bin reliever who turns out nails, so I’ll bet he finds that too. But it isn’t like year’s past where our holes were C, CF, SS

 

What made the Yankees so lovable for me is that for five years they insisted they could win with Sanchez behind the plate and guys like Gleybar at shortstop -- and fans like you agreed, because you weren't being honest with yourselves. Now they finally decide to use real catchers, and an actual defensive player at short, and they're suddenly the greatest team in the history of this century that hasn't won a ring yet.

[Kimmi]

No, he didn't prevent them from reeling then.

 

Many teams would have folded after a start like that.

[Kimmi]

I think the Red Sox got back in contention more so by playing for the most part against the bad losing teams in the league for over a month than Cora being good enough. Let’s see how the next month goes against the better Div teams.

 

Yes, the Sox played against mostly sub .500 teams, but they did what they had to do against those teams.

 

It will be be a tough month of baseball coming up. I don't expect the Sox to continue the record that they have in June. I do, however, expect the Sox to hold their own and to stay in contention.

[Kimmi]

Would you like the sox odds playing a 1st round series against the bluebirds starting in toronto?

 

Yes.

[Kimmi]

Ahem. Forget the past month and just look at the last 2 weeks--during which the Sox took 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (who were then leading the NL Central Division) and 3 of 3 from Cleveland, who were then leading the AL Central Division.

 

And about those bottom feeders. The very worst team in MLB, the A's, wins 1 out of every 3 games, but the Sox took 5 of 6. Detroit wins 4 of 10, but the Sox swept 3 of 3. The Angels win 5 of 10 (46.8%), and the Sox took 3 of 4. Seattle, almost as good at 46.1%, lost 2 of 3 to the Sox.

 

What I will agree with is that the Sox so far have struggled against all four of the other AL East Division teams. Not just the Yankees, Rays, and Jays, but also the Orioles, who have taken 4 of 7 games so far. And, as you imply, this could well doom the Sox, but I'm not yet ready to go there.

 

As for the Jays, let's not forget that playing in Toronto has removed our newly crowned closer, Houck, who has the Sox 5 most recent saves. Ya think Cora could have used Houck last night? Plus Duran, for whatever that's worth. And Sale, if he ever returns.

 

About Cora last night. Does he get no credit for sticking with Wacha after that disastrous 1st inning? I ask because, while Wacha didn't have his best stuff, he battled thru the 2d thru 5th innings, giving up just 1 more run. I say, "well done, Alex." Also Wacha of course.

 

Then Cora sent in Brasier, Schreiber, and Danish to hold the line for innings 6-8--which they in fact did. Still no credit?

 

Finally, came the 9th, and not many good options, thanks to Houck's fear of a shot that billions of people have taken without negative side effects.

 

However, Danish wasn't a horrible choice for the 9th: he had just pitched a clean 8th: fly out, K, groundout.

 

Moreover--and no one but me has noticed this--so far this year Danish has pitched 27 innings in 23 games, which means this wouldn't have been his first time going more than 1 inning. I say that because a lot of talksoxers wanted Schreiber to go 2 innings even though he has pitched just 23.2 innings in 25 games.

 

Unfortunately, Danish panicked in the 9th by walking Springer after giving up the single to Kirk (a great hitter for the Jays this year).

 

So in came Robles, whom none of us like. That said, both game-winning singles by Bichette and Guerrero were seeing-eye grounders that got through the Sox computer-drive shift. So I would argue that Robles was not a horrible choice based on what happened and even though none of us like him this year.

 

Nice post Max. Thank you for seeing the positive in what the Sox are doing.

[Kimmi]

What made the Yankees so lovable for me is that for five years they insisted they could win with Sanchez behind the plate and guys like Gleybar at shortstop -- and fans like you agreed, because you weren't being honest with yourselves. Now they finally decide to use real catchers, and an actual defensive player at short, and they're suddenly the greatest team in the history of this century that hasn't won a ring yet.

 

The importance of defense is too often overlooked. IMO, a significant part of the Yankees success is due to no longer having Sanchez behind the plate. Not to mention the vastly improved defense overall.

 

While on the subject of vastly improved defenses, we should also give a shout out to our own infield defense.

[JDavis76]

Yes.

 

Of course you would. But you would also like the pawsox chances against a Major League All Star team......

[JDavis76]

Many teams would have folded after a start like that.

 

My point was if he was capable of stopping it, then they wouldn't have been sub .500 for as long as they were.

[Maxbialystock]

Yes, the Sox played against mostly sub .500 teams, but they did what they had to do against those teams.

 

It will be be a tough month of baseball coming up. I don't expect the Sox to continue the record that they have in June. I do, however, expect the Sox to hold their own and to stay in contention.

 

Actually, this whole over and under .500 thing makes little mathematical or predictive sense. In order, here are the winning percentages in the AL:

 

1. Yankees 74%

2. Astros 63%

3. Red Sox 57%

4. Jays 56%

5. Twins 55%

6. Rays 54%

7. Guards 53%

8. Rangers 49%

9. Angels 47%

10. White Sox 47%

11. Mariners 47%

12. Orioles 46%

13. Tigers 39%

14. Royals 37%

15. Athletics 33%

 

If you take away the Yankees at the top and the A's at the bottom, in between are 13 teams who win on average between 6 of 10 games and 4 of 10 games. Each of the 13 has a decent chance of taking a series against the other 12 teams, as well as the A's.

 

What makes it tough for the Sox, Jays, Rays, and O's is that each of them has to play the freaking Yankees 19 times. The AL East Division is far and away the best Division in MLB and skews things against the other 4 teams--the ones not from NYC. Thus it is all the more amazing that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all have winning records and the Orioles are tougher than they have been.

 

In terms of positioning for the end of the season, the Twins, Guardians, and Astros--all teams with winning records-- have big advantages over the Sox, Jays, and Rays, also teams with winning records, simply because they don't play the Yankees as often. I might add that it's also daunting that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all play each other 19 times--and this year even the Orioles (@46%) aren't pushovers. They've taken 3 of 5 from the Sox so far.

 

While I agree the road ahead is tough, I do not agree that the AL is knee deep in "bottom feeders." Also, to date the Sox have taken 2 of 3 from the Astros, split with the Braves (58% winning %), taken 6/7 from the Mariners (47%), taken 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (55%), and swept the Guardians (53%).

 

Also this. Too many Talksoxers appear to believe that the Jays completely and utterly dominate the woebegone Sox. This was true in the early part of the season. But in this just concluded series in Toronto, I contend that the Sox win the series, despite having to start Seabold in game 1, if Houck had taken his freaking vaccination--and Alex Cora emphatically agrees with me, not the rest of you.

 

Be cautious about disagreeing with me. Last night I was the only one on the game thread who said--before the 10th inning--the Sox would win.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[JDavis76]

Actually, this whole over and under .500 thing makes little mathematical or predictive sense. In order, here are the winning percentages in the AL:

 

1. Yankees 74%

2. Astros 63%

3. Red Sox 57%

4. Jays 56%

5. Twins 55%

6. Rays 54%

7. Guards 53%

8. Rangers 49%

9. Angels 47%

10. White Sox 47%

11. Mariners 47%

12. Orioles 46%

13. Tigers 39%

14. Royals 37%

15. Athletics 33%

 

If you take away the Yankees at the top and the A's at the bottom, in between are 13 teams who win on average between 6 of 10 games and 4 of 10 games. Each of the 13 has a decent chance of taking a series against the other 12 teams, as well as the A's.

 

What makes it tough for the Sox, Jays, Rays, and O's is that each of them has to play the freaking Yankees 19 times. The AL East Division is far and away the best Division in MLB and skews things for the other 4 teams--the ones not from NYC. Thus it is all the more amazing that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all have winning records.

 

That said, in terms of positioning for the end of the season, the Twins, Guardians, and Astros--all teams with winning records-- have big advantages over the Sox, Jays, and Rays, also teams with winning records simply because they don't play the Yankees as often. I might add that it's also daunting that the Sox, Jays, and Rays all play each other 19 times--and this year even the Orioles (@46%) aren't pushovers. They've taken 3 of 5 from the Sox so far.

 

I understand what you are saying, but having a stretch where you play a lot of teams that are under .500 can certainly help with your winning % over that stretch.

 

And just because the orioles are 3 out of 5 vs the sox doesn't mean they aren't pushovers. It just means they have taken care of the sox so far.

Edited June 30, 2022 by JDavis76

[Bellhorn04]

I understand what you are saying, but having a stretch where you play a lot of teams that are under .500 can certainly help with your winning % over that stretch.

 

And just because the orioles are 3 out of 5 vs the sox doesn't mean they aren't pushovers. It just means they have taken care of the sox so far.

 

I guess it depends on what you call a pushover. To me a team that's won 46% of their games would not fall in that category.

[Maxbialystock]

The importance of defense is too often overlooked. IMO, a significant part of the Yankees success is due to no longer having Sanchez behind the plate. Not to mention the vastly improved defense overall.

 

While on the subject of vastly improved defenses, we should also give a shout out to our own infield defense.

 

Hmmmm. You and moonslav are in cahoots again, so I'm forced to admit defense can be important.

[Maxbialystock]

I understand what you are saying, but having a stretch where you play a lot of teams that are under .500 can certainly help with your winning % over that stretch.

 

And just because the orioles are 3 out of 5 vs the sox doesn't mean they aren't pushovers. It just means they have taken care of the sox so far.

 

Actually, I think the Sox problem is that they are in the toughest Division in MLB. Consider: to date the Sox have taken 2 of 3 from the Astros, split with the Braves (58% winning %), taken 6/7 from the Mariners (47%), taken 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (55%), and swept the Guardians (53%). On the other hand, to date they have losing records against all four of the other AL East teams.

[JDavis76]

Actually, I think the Sox problem is that they are in the toughest Division in MLB. Consider: to date the Sox have taken 2 of 3 from the Astros, split with the Braves (58% winning %), taken 6/7 from the Mariners (47%), taken 2 of 3 from the Cardinals (55%), and swept the Guardians (53%). On the other hand, to date they have losing records against all four of the other AL East teams.

 

seattle sucks and part of the Guardians success so far this year is that they play in a crappy division. But I do understand your point that the AL East is once again the AL Beast.

[Maxbialystock]

Listen up for another dictum from Chairman Max--

 

Knock off the whining about the bullpen because, without making a single trade or acquisition, the Sox already have the ingredients for a good one.

 

When Whitlock returns, which should be soon, he will join the bullpen.

 

Whitlock, Schreiber, who has been unbelievably good this season and who shut down the the heart of the Jays order twice in this recent series, and Mr. Unvaccinated will take care of all 8th and 9th inning situations in winnable games. That's the sore spot everyone complains about, and those three can make it a strength. Now and then, they could even handle the 7th inning as well.

 

I think any of them could close. My personal preference would be Schreiber, but Houck now has six straight saves and no blown saves and should keep the job. Besides, there's bound to be a game or two when he needs to rest.

 

Until Sale and Eovaldi return, the above will put some pressure on the rotation, currently Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Winckowski (who has indeed buckled down), and A Player To Be Named Later. Not great, but not terrible.

 

As for the rest of the bullpen, I'm no expert, but think Davis, Strahm, Danish, Brasier, Valdez, and even Sawamura would suffice--although I like that new guy Plawecki

 

For you doubting thomases, consider this: if Houck had been available vs. the Jays, the Sox win the series. Adding Whitlock will seal the deal.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[Larry Cook]

We desperately need 2 quality right handed relief pitchers. Preferably a high end set up man and a high end closer.

[Maxbialystock]

We desperately need 2 quality right handed relief pitchers. Preferably a high end set up man and a high end closer.

 

Very good point. I clean forgot that Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber are all lefties.