Will the Sox give Eduardo Rodriguez a Qualifying Offer?

[notin]

I think he would definitely reject the QO and go for a multi-year deal. He's very much in the same ballpark as Stroman, and Stroman has been projected to get 4/92.

 

I like him better than Stroman, but the two are definitely comparable.

 

The biggest difference is we know Stroman won’t have a QO attached…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like him better than Stroman, but the two are definitely comparable.

 

The biggest difference is we know Stroman won’t have a QO attached…

 

I think -- and I have no evidence whatsoever, so this is just my opinion -- that free agents who don't come with QOs (because they accepted them a year ago or were traded midseason) will be among the most attractive -- and possibly sought after -- if Bloom is shopping this winter. That could include Graveman, Stroman, Gausman, Scherzer, Rich Hill, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Starling Marte.

[moonslav59]

I think -- and I have no evidence whatsoever, so this is just my opinion -- that free agents who don't come with QOs (because they accepted them a year ago or were traded midseason) will be among the most attractive -- and possibly sought after -- if Bloom is shopping this winter. That could include Graveman, Stroman, Gausman, Scherzer, Rich Hill, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Starling Marte.

 

Good point. All the more reason to do our best to keep ERod, although, if we give the QO, he declines and signs elsewhere, we'd get a pick for losing him and then losing our 2nd pick by signing a FA with a QO would be a wash.

 

I found this...

 

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

 

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

 

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

 

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

 

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

 

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

 

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good point. All the more reason to do our best to keep ERod, although, if we give the QO, he declines and signs elsewhere, we'd get a pick for losing him and then losing our 2nd pick by signing a FA with a QO would be a wash.

 

I found this...

 

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

 

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

 

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

 

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

 

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

 

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

 

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

 

 

 

 

Good research. It explains why a club like Detroit may make a serious bid for Correa, who has past success playing for Hinch, plus would be a star to lead a team with good prospects (from past high draft picks) to the brink of contention.

 

It also shows why a lot of clubs might be inclined to wait until after the new CBA is in effect -- if new tax/penalty terms are better for clubs signing free agents...

[moonslav59]

Good point. All the more reason to do our best to keep ERod, although, if we give the QO, he declines and signs elsewhere, we'd get a pick for losing him and then losing our 2nd pick by signing a FA with a QO would be a wash.

 

I found this...

 

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres

 

If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.

 

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins

 

These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.

 

All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees

 

These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.

 

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

 

Losing a second round pick and a little money from the pool is not all that big a deal when compared to gaining a player worthy of a QO, especially the Correas and Semiens.

[Donnie Sadler was short]

I would give him the QO for many of the reasons stated...its only a slight overpay & just 1 yr, plus if declined, we get the draft pick. That being said....Im sure Im not the only one thats pretty much done waiting for him to blossom into "something special"...In my mind he's kinda like a left handed Bucholz....a very serviceable starter.

[notin]

I think -- and I have no evidence whatsoever, so this is just my opinion -- that free agents who don't come with QOs (because they accepted them a year ago or were traded midseason) will be among the most attractive -- and possibly sought after -- if Bloom is shopping this winter. That could include Graveman, Stroman, Gausman, Scherzer, Rich Hill, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Starling Marte.

 

 

And Schwarber and Robles…

[jacksonianmarch]

You gotta offer him one. If he stays, you get a prime ERod with a full off-season and maybe he continues his post ASB dominance. If he walks, you collect the pick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You gotta offer him one. If he stays, you get a prime ERod with a full off-season and maybe he continues his post ASB dominance. If he walks, you collect the pick

 

The QO also limits the teams that would be interested in signing a good but not great starting pitcher. A club like Boston with a CBO like Bloom may prefer a Stroman over an ERod simply because the cost is only money and doesn't also include losing a draft pick.

 

This is what JD is up against more than ERod: why sign a guy like JD in his mid-30s for $20+ mil, plus a draft pick, when you can sign a younger Schwarber and keep your pick.

[notin]

The only reason to NOT give a player a QO is you fear he’ll accept it. This reasoning is acceptable to not give one to Robles or Travis Shaw. But the Sox are consistently an upper tier team in payroll; are they really a team worried about the financial impact of contributing players having one pricey season?

[moonslav59]

You gotta offer him one. If he stays, you get a prime ERod with a full off-season and maybe he continues his post ASB dominance. If he walks, you collect the pick

 

Yes, and one year commitments are much easier to handle, if they don't work out. Like Richards and Kluber.

 

To me the debate is about the one year QO vs a longer term deal.- perhaps at a slightly lower AAV.

Edited November 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Today's the day we find out!

[notin]

Yes, and one year commitments are much easier to handle, if they don't work out. Like Richards and Kluber.

 

To me the debate is about the one year QO vs a longer term deal.- perhaps at a slightly lower AAV.B]

 

That’s no debate.

 

You offer the QO, and unless he immediately accepts (which is unlikely), you continue to negotiate…

[moonslav59]

That’s no debate.

 

You offer the QO, and unless he immediately accepts (which is unlikely), you continue to negotiate…

 

True. Technically, it's not a debate. You do both.

 

The debate is only what ERod chooses to do: take the offer or try to get a better longer deal- perhaps with the Sox.

 

He may have already gotten some idea of what they are willing to give, longer term.

[moonslav59]

Today's the day we find out!

 

Today is the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents. Teams must make their decisions by 4pm CT, but the identities of some QO free agents have already been reported or even officially announced by their respective clubs. We’ll update this list throughout the day, but here are the players who already know will be getting the one-year, $18.4MM deal…

 

Nick Castellanos, Reds

Michael Conforto, Mets

Robbie Ray, Blue Jays

Corey Seager, Dodgers

Marcus Semien, Blue Jays

Trevor Story, Rockies

Noah Syndergaard, Mets

 

More on QOs from MLBTR...

 

These players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer. If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022. They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team). Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

 

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team. Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

 

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

 

A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.

A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.

A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers. This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date. In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

 

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout. By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

[Bellhorn04]

Knowing Bloom's patience, we probably won't find out until a little after 4 PM CT.

[moonslav59]

Knowing Bloom's patience, we probably won't find out until a little after 4 PM CT.

 

Makes me wonder, if he is working on a longer term deal, as we speak.

[notin]

Makes me wonder, if he is working on a longer term deal, as we speak.

 

Maybe, or maybe he’s waiting on JD so he only has to have one press conference…

[moonslav59]

Maybe, or maybe he’s waiting on JD so he only has to have one press conference…

 

Both dates are today?

[Bellhorn04]

Both dates are today?

 

Plus NFL football? I may have to make a run to the liquor store.

[moonslav59]

Plus NFL football?

 

If they'd stop doing instant replay, I'd start watching the NFL, again.

[notin]

If they'd stop doing instant replay, I'd start watching the NFL, again.

 

I hear they’re adding instant replay to qualifying offer decisions. So I refuse to watch them…

[moonslav59]

I hear they’re adding instant replay to qualifying offer decisions. So I refuse to watch them…

 

There are no "do-overs" in QOs or life!

[notin]

ERod did get his QO.

 

My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…

[notin]

ERod did get his QO.

 

My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…

 

And maybe Brandon Belt, although a one year deal is risky for him

[Bellhorn04]

I say yes. I'm a yes man.

 

2 for 2 for the yes men.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

ERod did get his QO.

 

My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…

 

... unless there's just one club willing to spend $30 mil plus a draft pick for Taylor (probably not).

 

But can he at least be this winter's Kike and get the same AAV, like $21 mil for three? It's not much more than the QO -- but a couple million to a guy in his 30s at his peak earning power? Would Bloom offer that, plus a pick? Take the QO, Chris...

[moonslav59]

... unless there's just one club willing to spend $30 mil plus a draft pick for Taylor (probably not).

 

But can he at least be this winter's Kike and get the same AAV, like $21 mil for three? It's not much more than the QO -- but a couple million to a guy in his 30s at his peak earning power? Would Bloom offer that, plus a pick? Take the QO, Chris...

 

I'm glad Taylor is off the boards.

 

I really do not want to hear "sign Chris" all winter long.

[moonslav59]

ERod did get his QO.

 

My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…

 

Iglesias had a real good year, and there is a shortage of top closers on the market. He may test the waters.

[Larry Cook]

I'm glad Taylor is off the boards.

 

I really do not want to hear "sign Chris" all winter long.

 

I was all in on signing chris Taylor. I really did not think the dodgers would offer him a q.o.

 

This is very disheartening to say, but we need to pass on Taylor now.