The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Your pitching sucks and you had no down or injury plagued years in your lineup. That’s rare.

 

You're talking gibberish.

 

The Red Sox were 9th in MLB in ERA+ at 111. The Yankees were 5th at 115.

 

And since our defense was lousy, that means the pitching was even better than that.

[Bellhorn04]

Your offense is damn good. I am also wondering if the Sox have some Jedi master healing their players with the force. Schwarber, known to be a chronic IL inhabitor, comes over injured, gets injured recovering from the first injury then returns faster than anticipated from the first injury and avoids the IL thereafter.

 

Bloom wouldn't have made the trade unless he was confident Schwarber was close to healthy.

 

More gibberish.

[Maxbialystock]

Don’t tell the Sox they don’t have the arms, they’ll just beat you into submission. This is lining up a la 2013 again. They’re not a great team on paper, but they’re bludgeoning teams with their bats. They’ve got one reliable starting pitcher. They run into a deep Astros team who lose their ace the game before this series and lose their #3 today (Garcia hurt his knee). Fate couldn’t be drifting further in their favor. Heck, Cora decided to tempt it with his “hold my beer” moment in starting Sale game 1, yet they still come out of Houston with hone field. Not even sure what to believe anymore. Pitching wins titles? That’s utter ******** now. Slug your way to titles, pitching be damned!

 

You aren't quite the Sox expert you claim to be. The 2013 Sox had the lowest ERA, 2.59, of all the postseason teams. Their postseason OPS was .664, whereas this year so far its .925.

 

The Sox postseason ERA this year is a woeful 4.43, granted, but guess what? That's the lowest in the American League. Next lowest is the Astros 5.09 and then the Rays 6.00.

 

The Sox defense has been better than expected in the postseason in part because Kike went back to centerfield and Schwarber, despite that horrendous toss to the pitcher at 1b, has been pretty steady there. The Sox have 1 error in 7 postseason games. Friday Altuve turned an easy GIDP into all hands safe which resulted in an unearned run. Arroyo isn't my fav at 2b, but he is clearly better than Altuve. The baserunning hasn't been great, but also hasn't done the boneheaded things other teams have done.

 

Nevertheless, I do agree that pitching is the big question mark, which is why you think Cora is the best manager. This will be tested more in a seven game series because there will still be just 2 days off. There is little evidence that the 4 days off between ALDS and ALCS benefitted the Sox pitching staff.

 

ERod in game 3 and Pivetta or Houck to start game 4, I think. Either way, the middle three games, back to back to back, are going to test the Sox bullpen. In the Sox seven postseason games, their bullpen has pitched 39 innings and the rotation just 26 innings. Astounding.

 

Of those 39 bullpen innings, here are the four best, totaling 20.2 innings:

 

Pivetta, ERA 3.12 in 8.2 innings

Whitlock, 1.42 ERA in 6.1 innings (Rizzo got that 9th inning dinger off him)

Ottavino ERA 0.0 in 3 innings.

Taylor ERA 0.0 in 2.2 innings.

 

Another 8 innings in relief went to Houck, whose postseason ERA is 4.50. His 5 innings and 1 run in game 2 of the ALDS were what allowed the Sox come back from Sale's disastrous first innings and 5 runs.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[jad]

Don't feed the trolls.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

One thing i notice about the dodgers is just how better they’re offensively than their counterparts in the NL. I mean the giants where just pathetic offensively and the Braves look terrible. That won’t be the case if they advance and face either the Red Sox or Stros.

 

The Dodgers' starters and BP can make the offense of any team they face look pathetic. That being said, it is true that they haven't faced as good an offense as the SOX or Astros. Btw, the Dodgers' offense isn't anything to write home about, but their pitching and defense will make them a very difficult team to beat in the WS, if they get there. I believe they will.

[Maxbialystock]

Don't feed the trolls.

 

jacksonianmarch is no troll and usually writes provocative stuff with a kernel or two of truth. I myself have on occasion said the Sox defense and baserunning stink. The rotation has been bad enough to require Cora to use his bullpen early and often.

[Maxbialystock]

The Dodgers' starters and BP can make the offense of any team they face look pathetic. That being said, it is true that they haven't faced as good an offense as the SOX or Astros. Btw, the Dodgers' offense isn't anything to write home about, but their pitching and defense will make them a very difficult team to beat in the WS, if they get there. I believe they will.

 

Dodgers are tough, no question. They had to win the wild card game before taking on the 107 win Giants with the home field advantage.

[jacksonianmarch]

And don’t forget picking up a broken Iglesias Sept 6 and the dude plays like Corey Seager for a month

[Fan_since_Boggs]

That was an absolute must-win game for the Braves. If they didn't win with Fried going against the Dodgers bullpen, the series would have been lost after one game IMO. Starting today the Braves will now face the 3-headed monster of Scherzer, Buehler, and Urias, but at least the Braves are up 1-0 and maybe one of the dominant Dodgers starters will stumble.

 

I believe that dominant starting pitching wins championships and that is why the Dodgers are the biggest threat to the Red Sox and will likely win the World Series. The Braves have decent pitching too, but their starters are less dominant than the top 3 of the Dodgers' staff.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

That was an absolute must-win game for the Braves. If they didn't win with Fried going against the Dodgers bullpen, the series would have been lost after one game IMO. Starting today the Braves will now face the 3-headed monster of Scherzer, Buehler, and Urias, but at least the Braves are up 1-0 and maybe one of the dominant Dodgers starters will stumble.

 

I believe dominant starting pitching wins championships and that is why the Dodgers are the biggest threat to the Red Sox and will likely win the World Series. The Braves have decent pitching too, but they don't have the shutdown dominant starters that the Dodgers have.

 

To me the Dodgers, with all the pitching they have, might be getting a little too clever with their strategizing. I laughed with glee when Gonsolin and his kitty-cat cleats gave up the big game-tying homer.

[Bellhorn04]

And don’t forget picking up a broken Iglesias Sept 6 and the dude plays like Corey Seager for a month

 

True, but give Bloom credit for staying on the job by picking up Iggy and Shaw.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

To me the Dodgers, with all the pitching they have, might be getting a little too clever with their strategizing. I laughed with glee when Gonsolin and his kitty-cat cleats gave up the big game-tying homer.

 

Maybe so. I can't figure out why they went with a bullpen game in game 1. There does seem to be a little arrogance behind the decision to go with a bullpen game against Fried, which would have set up the Dodgers really well for the rest of the series. Problem is, they lost game 1 and now the decision doesn't look so wise or prudent.

 

The Dodgers will still likely win this series, but if one of their top starters stumble over the next few games, the Braves will have an opening.....

[jad]

jacksonianmarch is no troll and usually writes provocative stuff with a kernel or two of truth. I myself have on occasion said the Sox defense and baserunning stink. The rotation has been bad enough to require Cora to use his bullpen early and often.

 

I agree with your "usually." But this doesn't apply to his sudden obsession with teams more successful than his own.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Jackson is obviously very distraught over the 2021 season, the year he believed the Yankees were going to win a championship. Not only did the Yankees not win a championship, but the Red Sox proved they are a much better team than the Yankees right now, and the Red Sox have a brighter future with a much stronger farm system and better younger players overall.

 

The Yankee have not beaten the Red Sox in a meaningful and historic game since the Boone HR. The 2004 playoffs, the 2018 playoffs, and the 2021 wild card game = solid evidence that the Yankees are now second class citizens.

 

Speaking of 2004, on the 20th year anniversary I would like to see the Red Sox invite the 2004 Yankees to Fenway Park. They could introduce each 2004 Yankees player to the crowd and each player would get a standing ovation for being part of the biggest losers in the history of sports. The front office should be invited too, Brian Cashman should be there, after all, he was the architect behind the biggest collapse in the history of sports.

[Elktonnick]

We were up six to start the inning. He gave up two runs and we still won 9-5 so what was there to worry about? The tying run never even came up to the plate so why the nerves?

 

I have been following this team for almost 70 years. I have seen them self destruct hundreds of times. Once bitten twice shy.

[Elktonnick]

Jackson is obviously very distraught over the 2021 season, the year he believed the Yankees were going to win a championship. Not only did the Yankees not win a championship, but the Red Sox proved they are a much better team than the Yankees right now, and the Red Sox have a brighter future with a much stronger farm system and better younger players overall.

 

The Yankee have not beaten the Red Sox in a meaningful and historic game since the Boone HR. The 2004 playoffs, the 2018 playoffs, and the 2021 wild card game = solid evidence that the Yankees are now second class citizens.

 

Speaking of 2004, on the 20th year anniversary I would like to see the Red Sox invite the 2004 Yankees to Fenway Park. They could introduce each 2004 Yankees player to the crowd and each player would get a standing ovation for being part of the biggest losers in the history of sports. The front office should be invited too, Brian Cashman should be there, after all, he was the architect behind the biggest collapse in the history of sports.

Cashman seems to love these big ballplayers who physically should be playing tight end for the Jets or Giants. As Pete Rose says Ray Charles would not have struck out as often.

[YastrzemskI]

I have been following this team for almost 70 years. I have seen them self destruct hundreds of times. Once bitten twice shy.

 

Again.. the tying run never even got to the plate. The Astros should have been nervous in game one because they won by the skin of their teeth.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Cashman seems to love these big ballplayers who physically should be playing tight end for the Jets or Giants. As Pete Rose says Ray Charles would not have struck out as often.

 

Cashman should make a move to the NFL, like Paul DePodesta, and bring Joey Gallo with him. LOL.

[Maxbialystock]

That was an absolute must-win game for the Braves. If they didn't win with Fried going against the Dodgers bullpen, the series would have been lost after one game IMO. Starting today the Braves will now face the 3-headed monster of Scherzer, Buehler, and Urias, but at least the Braves are up 1-0 and maybe one of the dominant Dodgers starters will stumble.

 

I believe that dominant starting pitching wins championships and that is why the Dodgers are the biggest threat to the Red Sox and will likely win the World Series. The Braves have decent pitching too, but their starters are less dominant than the top 3 of the Dodgers' staff.

 

Well said. Thanks.

[Maxbialystock]

I have been following this team for almost 70 years. I have seen them self destruct hundreds of times. Once bitten twice shy.

 

Meh.

 

I've been following the Sox since 1949, so we both suffered through a lot of lousy seasons. But we are now--since 2003--in the John Henry era, which includes four WS wins and no WS losses. The Cardinals whipped the Sox and Ted Williams in 1946, but the 2004 Sox took the Cardinals four straight.

 

If you want to argue this year's Sox team has flaws, I agree, but, as moonslav and some others--notably, Kimmi--have reminded us all along, they have a heckuva lineup and, thanks to Cora, a penchant for playing well and winning games when some of us--notably, yours truly--have about give up.

 

Specifically, after the Yankees took 3 straight at Fenway and the Orioles then took 2 of 3, this team was dead, dead, dead going into October. Well, maybe just mostly dead because then the Sox took all 3 at the Nats, whipped Cole and the Yankees in the wild card game, stunned the Rays 3-1 in the ALDS, and now have a bonafide shot at getting to their 5th WS in the John Henry era.

 

I do think the Astros, with or without their best starters, are a tough out. They have a good bullpen to go along with fierce hitting, good fielding (sort of), and good baserunning.

[dgalehouse]

The Astros have a potent lineup , but their starting pitching is simply not good enough to stop the Sox onslaught. The Sox hitters are confident and locked in.

[moonslav59]

JD was one of the worst players in all of baseball last year and he rebounded to being very good. Maybe not near his peak, but that’s a big turnaround.

 

Renfroe had a career year

 

Devers continued to rake

 

Bogaerts continued to rake

 

Vaz wasn’t far off career averages

 

Kike had a career year

 

Schwarber is having a career year

 

Arroyo sucks and has always sucked, so trailing off second half isn’t surprising

 

You don’t know what Verdugo is long term, this could be his peak or he could get better

 

Overall your lineup either performed near career norms or well above and stayed pretty healthy.

 

Using career stats for young players is misleading.

 

You normally expect improvement from ages 22-28 or 29 not flatining or regression from previous better years.

 

You keep brining up JD's massive drop off in a 60 game season, like it actually meant something and set his "new norm." A normal regression due to his age makes 2021's numbers just about right.

 

Bogey and Devers had better years before, this. They may be better next year.

 

Vaz dropped off a lot, and using his career stats is like saying LeMahieu was close to his career norm, this year (.711 to .778). You know damn well a player's most recent 2-3 years is a better indicator of norm than career numbers.

 

It's not uncommon to have 2 or your top 10 PA players having career years. It should actually expected- just as a couple having drop off years. That's what we had. The rest held true to their recent norms or season (2019 or 2020).

 

When we hit even better, next year, maybe you'll be convinced it was no fluke.

[moonslav59]

You aren't quite the Sox expert you claim to be. The 2013 Sox had the lowest ERA, 2.59, of all the postseason teams. Their postseason OPS was .664, whereas this year so far its .925.

 

The Sox postseason ERA this year is a woeful 4.43, granted, but guess what? That's the lowest in the American League. Next lowest is the Astros 5.09 and then the Rays 6.00.

 

The Sox defense has been better than expected in the postseason in part because Kike went back to centerfield and Schwarber, despite that horrendous toss to the pitcher at 1b, has been pretty steady there. The Sox have 1 error in 7 postseason games. Friday Altuve turned an easy GIDP into all hands safe which resulted in an unearned run. Arroyo isn't my fav at 2b, but he is clearly better than Altuve. The baserunning hasn't been great, but also hasn't done the boneheaded things other teams have done.

 

Nevertheless, I do agree that pitching is the big question mark, which is why you think Cora is the best manager. This will be tested more in a seven game series because there will still be just 2 days off. There is little evidence that the 4 days off between ALDS and ALCS benefitted the Sox pitching staff.

 

ERod in game 3 and Pivetta or Houck to start game 4, I think. Either way, the middle three games, back to back to back, are going to test the Sox bullpen. In the Sox seven postseason games, their bullpen has pitched 39 innings and the rotation just 26 innings. Astounding.

 

Of those 39 bullpen innings, here are the four best, totaling 20.2 innings:

 

Pivetta, ERA 3.12 in 8.2 innings

Whitlock, 1.42 ERA in 6.1 innings (Rizzo got that 9th inning dinger off him)

Ottavino ERA 0.0 in 3 innings.

Taylor ERA 0.0 in 2.2 innings.

 

Another 8 innings in relief went to Houck, whose postseason ERA is 4.50. His 5 innings and 1 run in game 2 of the ALDS were what allowed the Sox come back from Sale's disastrous first innings and 5 runs.

 

Good stuff, max, as always.

[moonslav59]

And don’t forget picking up a broken Iglesias Sept 6 and the dude plays like Corey Seager for a month

 

We aren't going to apologize for having a better GM than you.

 

It's part of how good a team is.

 

Same with the manager.

[moonslav59]

I agree with your "usually." But this doesn't apply to his sudden obsession with teams more successful than his own.

 

He was obsessed with us when we sucked, too.

[moonslav59]

Meh.

 

I've been following the Sox since 1949, so we both suffered through a lot of lousy seasons. But we are now--since 2003--in the John Henry era, which includes four WS wins and no WS losses. The Cardinals whipped the Sox and Ted Williams in 1946, but the 2004 Sox took the Cardinals four straight.

 

If you want to argue this year's Sox team has flaws, I agree, but, as moonslav and some others--notably, Kimmi--have reminded us all along, they have a heckuva lineup and, thanks to Cora, a penchant for playing well and winning games when some of us--notably, yours truly--have about give up.

 

Specifically, after the Yankees took 3 straight at Fenway and the Orioles then took 2 of 3, this team was dead, dead, dead going into October. Well, maybe just mostly dead because then the Sox took all 3 at the Nats, whipped Cole and the Yankees in the wild card game, stunned the Rays 3-1 in the ALDS, and now have a bonafide shot at getting to their 5th WS in the John Henry era.

 

I do think the Astros, with or without their best starters, are a tough out. They have a good bullpen to go along with fierce hitting, good fielding (sort of), and good baserunning.

 

Every AL team had known serious flaws from day one.

 

Even if the Astros had no new rotation injuries, we'd have had a very good chance at beating them.

 

Just watch us against the vaunted Dodger staff..

[jad]

He was obsessed with us when we sucked, too.

 

You're right. Maybe we should ask someone in the medical profession to explain this for us.

[moonslav59]

You're right. Maybe we should ask someone in the medical profession to explain this for us.

 

You crack me up.

[Maxbialystock]

I think these middle three games on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be decisive. No, I don't expect either team to win all three, but I do think the winner of 2 of the 3 will likely get to the WS.

 

They will be a grind for both pitching staffs. Stating the obvious, I give the Sox the edge in starters and the Astros the edge in the bullpen. Both teams have good hitting, but the Sox lineup is deeper. Renfroe, it should be noted, is fading fast because he swings at everything. The Astros have the edge in fielding despite Altuve's error--they have 8 double plays to the Sox 2. The also have 6 SB's to the Sox 1.

[moonslav59]

If our bats stay this hot, maybe nothing else matters. This has been spectacular!

 

Our D has even looked passable. Even Schwarber is making plays at 1B.

 

Of course, if our pitching can pull it together and guys like ERod and Pivetta can keep it up, there can be no stopping us!