The Official 2021 ALCS Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Sure they could, and would. Maybe from the Giants fans who claim, like two-year olds, it's UNFAIR to end a season on a check-swing.

 

If I was a Giants fan, I'd be more apt to think it a tad unfair that the reward for winning 107 games and the division was to play a best 3 of 5 against a team that won 106 and had a run differential of +269 in the first round.

[Maxbialystock]

This is a good order. In '18, Altuve and Correa weren't 100 percent, but we all have our nagging issues...

 

...like JD and Rafie this October. Just look at their postseason OPS so far: JD 1.200, Devers 1.067!

 

Meh. It's gotta be 2004 for three reasons: the Sox were wild cards, which gave the Angels, Yankees, and Cardinals home field advantage; the Sox had to come from 3 games down to the Yankees to win the ALCS; the Sox had to overcome the curse.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2013 is flukish only because the Sox pitching was so great in the postseason--an insane ERA of 2.59. Lester went 34.2 innings with an ERA of 1.56. Lackey 26 innings and 2.77, plus he won than pitching duel against Verlander, 1-0. And of course Uehara pitched 13.2 innings with an ERA of .66. The Sox lineup meanwhile had a cumulative OPS of .664, but did get some timely hits, especially from Ortiz and Victorino.

 

Ha, that was the other fluke -- that despite how bad the rest of the lineup was, the Cards thought it was a good idea to keep pitching to Papi.

[Maxbialystock]

If I was a Giants fan, I'd be more apt to think it a tad unfair that the reward for winning 107 games and the division was to play a best 3 of 5 against a team that won 106 and had a run differential of +269 in the first round.

 

Good point. However, like our Sox, the Dodgers had to play and win the wild card game before taking on the Giants. The Rays and Giants both failed to exploit a real advantage in setting up their pitching.

[Maxbialystock]

Ha, that was the other fluke -- that despite how bad the rest of the lineup was, the Cards thought it was a good idea to keep pitching to Papi.

 

Love it!

[mvp 78]

I don't think people thought Vic, Napoli and Dempster were any better than AGon & Beckett.

 

I think it was a reasonable assumption to expect better seasons out of Lester and Lackey though. Victorino was better in 2013 than CC was in 2011. Napoli held his own. WMB was coming off an interesting year at 3b. The bigger question for that team was BP and SS.

[Bellhorn04]

Good point. However, like our Sox, the Dodgers had to play and win the wild card game before taking on the Giants. The Rays and Giants both failed to exploit a real advantage in setting up their pitching.

 

Max, the Dodgers are freaking stacked.

 

They sign Bauer for huge money, lose him because of his off-field crimes, and then they trade for Scherzer and Trea Turner.

 

The Giants had no real advantage playing a team that loaded with high-priced, elite talent.

[moonslav59]

I think it was a reasonable assumption to expect better seasons out of Lester and Lackey though. Victorino was better in 2013 than CC was in 2011. Napoli held his own. WMB was coming off an interesting year at 3b. The bigger question for that team was BP and SS.

 

I know what they did. I was talking about what was expected on opening day 2013.

 

Vic, Nap and Demp? Meh.

[kenmeister]

About Sale vs. Valdez tonight. I prefer Eovaldi, but trust Cora, who says Sale rediscovered his best stuff in some bullpen sessions.

 

Valdez was really tough vs. the Sox June 8 @ Houston and June 2 @ Fenway: 14.1 innings, 2 ER's, 18 K's, 2 BB's. He went 4.1 vs. the White Sox a week ago and gave up 4 runs. And a week before that he went 5 vs. the A's, also giving up 4 runs. But he pitched 24 innings in September with an ERA of 3.28.

 

Both teams have rested bullpens, so the edge in starters may not mean much.

 

Both teams are hitting well in the postseason.

 

Oh I hadn't heard that line about "rediscovered his best stuff"; that's wonderful news. If Chris can be Chris Freakin' Sale, as Moon puts it, then our rotation looks tough to beat. Sale, then Eovaldi, then Rodriguez, then either Pivetta or Houck. Combine that with our surging offense and we might repeat the 4-1 result.

[Maxbialystock]

The 2011 team was supposedly the greatest Sox team of all time on 4/1/11. Due to injuries, they missed the playoffs on game 162. They played .500 ball in 2012 and traded 3 players midseason because they made the shittiest manager hire in my lifetime. In the offseason, they replenished what was traded away and became contenders. It wasn't all that surprising.

 

2011 team totally collapsed in September, but I don't recall that being caused by injuries. They had picked up Carl Crawford who bombed, but Ellsbury had a career year which he never came close--before or after 2011--to duplicating and which caused the Yankees to stupidly offer him a ridiculous contract. That September collapse cost Francona his job.

 

Trading those three guys in 2012 was a solid move and probably led--along with firing Valentine and hiring Farrell as the manager--to the success of 2013.

[Maxbialystock]

Oh I hadn't heard that line about "rediscovered his best stuff"; that's wonderful news. If Chris can be Chris Freakin' Sale, as Moon puts it, then our rotation looks tough to beat. Sale, then Eovaldi, then Rodriguez, then either Pivetta or Houck. Combine that with our surging offense and we might repeat the 4-1 result.

 

I like Sale and Cora a lot, but will watch tonight's game with bated breath.

[Maxbialystock]

Max, the Dodgers are freaking stacked.

 

They sign Bauer for huge money, lose him because of his off-field crimes, and then they trade for Scherzer and Trea Turner.

 

The Giants had no real advantage playing a team that loaded with high-priced, elite talent.

 

I stand corrected, as always. It was, however, one heckuva NLDS.

[mvp 78]

Oh I hadn't heard that line about "rediscovered his best stuff"; that's wonderful news. If Chris can be Chris Freakin' Sale, as Moon puts it, then our rotation looks tough to beat. Sale, then Eovaldi, then Rodriguez, then either Pivetta or Houck. Combine that with our surging offense and we might repeat the 4-1 result.

 

All he needs to do is get his changeup back and he's golden.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

All he needs to do is get his changeup back and he's golden.

 

I still think Sale's issues are more physical than we know. Jordan Lupus hit a grand salami off an 0-2 fastball above the frickin strike zone -- could that have ever happened pre-TJ? Since that Tampa start, no one has been saying Sale needs to find his waste pitch, but maybe there's a reason for that...

 

Sorry, just being a realist (not a pessimist).

[kenmeister]

I still think Sale's issues are more physical than we know. Jordan Lupus hit a grand salami off an 0-2 fastball above the frickin strike zone -- could that have ever happened pre-TJ? Since that Tampa start, no one has been saying Sale needs to find his waste pitch, but maybe there's a reason for that...

 

Sorry, just being a realist (not a pessimist).

 

My understanding is the velocity was quite good on that pitch. If you are beat for a grand slam on a good pitch above the strike zone, I think you tip your cap. That said, yeah he's probably missing the changeup to keep hitters guessing.

[Maxbialystock]

All he needs to do is get his changeup back and he's golden.

 

"Golden" dates you, as it does me. But there can be no doubt that Sale is much better when his changeup is working.

 

That said, three short years ago Sale started game 1 of the ALCS against the Astros and went 4 innings and 2 ER's. He did not start another game vs. the Astros even though game 5 was 5 days later. Price, the game 2 starter, started game 5.

[mvp 78]

The decision between Davis and Hernandez is an interesting one. Hernandez is a low floor/high ceiling guy. If he really harnessed his stuff, he'd be a closer. However, I wonder if Cora is less likely to use him in the postseason since he is also apt to walk the bases loaded. Now that pitchers are forced to throw to 3 guys, it's hard to trust a wild reliever who can sometimes just not have it. His 6.98 bb/9 is scary in close games. You can't give free passes to anyone in October.

 

@TomCaron

Sox #ALCS roster. Barnes, Davis off. Sawamura, Darwinzon Henandez on. Everything else stays the same.

[mvp 78]

My understanding is the velocity was quite good on that pitch. If you are beat for a grand slam on a good pitch above the strike zone, I think you tip your cap. That said, yeah he's probably missing the changeup to keep hitters guessing.

 

If you don't have to worry about the changeup, you can sit on that fastball.

[Maxbialystock]

I still think Sale's issues are more physical than we know. Jordan Lupus hit a grand salami off an 0-2 fastball above the frickin strike zone -- could that have ever happened pre-TJ? Since that Tampa start, no one has been saying Sale needs to find his waste pitch, but maybe there's a reason for that...

 

Sorry, just being a realist (not a pessimist).

 

Realism is called for in this case. I think Sale has recaptured his changeup in the bullpen--which is crucial to his repertoire, especially against righty bats--but will watch tonight's game with bated breath.

[Maxbialystock]

@TomCaron

Sox #ALCS roster. Barnes, Davis off. Sawamura, Darwinzon Henandez on. Everything else stays the same.

 

Yep. I gotta agree on Sawamura over Barnes right now, also D.Hernandez over Davis. Cora is sensibly staying with 13 pitchers despite the days off in the ALCS. Besides, who else you going to add to the lineup players? If JDM had not injured his ankle, Cora would have used the nine bats for all 5 postseason games: Kike, Schwarber, Bogey, Devers, JDM, Verdugo, Renfroe, Vazquez, Arroyo--with tweaks in the batting order. Santana is a versatile backup, Dalbec is good for first base, especially with a late lead, Shaw can pinch hit, and Plawecki is the 2d catcher.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My understanding is the velocity was quite good on that pitch. If you are beat for a grand slam on a good pitch above the strike zone, I think you tip your cap. That said, yeah he's probably missing the changeup to keep hitters guessing.

 

Alright, but if Cora really thought it was good pitch and lucky guess by a big league hitter, maybe he doesn't yank him so soon.

 

When Sale and Co. say his current fastball lacks command, might they be referring to using his warmer to set up his true outpitches -- the slider and change?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'd like to face Betts & the Dodgers, but I won't be upset if the Braves win.

 

It would be pretty cool to see Verdugo have a big World Series and outplay Betts.

 

The Dodgers are so loaded. They were loaded even before they traded for Scherzer and Turner.

[mvp 78]

Yep. I gotta agree on Sawamura over Barnes right now, also D.Hernandez over Davis. Cora is sensibly staying with 13 pitchers despite the days off in the ALCS. Besides, who else you going to add to the lineup players? If JDM had not injured his ankle, Cora would have used the nine bats for all 5 postseason games: Kike, Schwarber, Bogey, Devers, JDM, Verdugo, Renfroe, Vazquez, Arroyo--with tweaks in the batting order. Santana is a versatile backup, Dalbec is good for first base, especially with a late lead, Shaw can pinch hit, and Plawecki is the 2d catcher.

 

DHern vs R: 677 OPS

Davis vs R: 876 OPS

 

HOU has the lowest k rate of any MLB team. They put the ball in play.

[mvp 78]

It would be pretty cool to see Verdugo have a big World Series and outplay Betts.

 

The Dodgers are so loaded. They were loaded even before they traded for Scherzer and Turner.

 

Even cooler to see Kiké win a WS MVP. Dodgers intentionally let Kiké leave for nothing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

DHern vs R: 677 OPS

Davis vs R: 876 OPS

 

HOU has the lowest k rate of any MLB team. They put the ball in play.

 

Best OBP, most RBIs. They get them on and get them in.

[Maxbialystock]

A change-up story. The 1954 NY Giants had a pretty good pinch-hitter, Dusty Rhodes, who, however, was known to struggle hitting changeups. He once even said that, if he went up against a team of Eskimos, one of them would claim, "can't hit the change." In the 1954 World Series against the Guardians, Rhodes hit two dingers, both off of change-ups.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I watched the Dodgers/Giants game last night and found it appropo that the last out of the game was on an atrocious check swing call by the 1st base chUMP. Supposedly, the chUMPIRES' union is tasked with picking the best chUMPS from the regular season to work the PO's. Of course, that was proven BS when I saw Angel Hernandez working the Brewers/Braves series.

I believe every call these chUMPS make should be reviewable for the simple reason that they suck so bad.

Edited October 15, 2021 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

Even cooler to see Kiké win a WS MVP. Dodgers intentionally let Kiké leave for nothing.

 

They sure spent the money "saved," though.

[moonslav59]

Alright, but if Cora really thought it was good pitch and lucky guess by a big league hitter, maybe he doesn't yank him so soon.

 

When Sale and Co. say his current fastball lacks command, might they be referring to using his warmer to set up his true outpitches -- the slider and change?

 

There is something strange going on with Sale.

 

He might have been lucky to only have a 4.08 ERA in his last 4 starts of the 2021 regular season, but he got K's in 21 of his last 38 outs, including all 7 outs in his start vs WASH.

 

He K'd 2 out of 3 in that one start vs TBR, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I watched the Dodgers/Giants game last night and found it appropo that the last out of the game was on an atrocious check swing call by the 1st base chUMP. Supposedly, the chUMPIRES' union is tasked with picking the best chUMPS from the regular season to work the PO's. Of course, that was proven BS when I saw Angel Hernandez working the Brewers/Braves series.

I believe every call these chUMPS make should be reviewable for the simple reason that they suck so bad.

 

The MLB should just ban check-the-check. Baseball already has too many swinging strikeouts where batters actually swing. Plus, it would cut down the length of games if batteries couldn't appeal every single time a hitter flutters an eyelash. At least make it like with replays; each team is limited to three check-the-checks, so pick your spots.

 

The home plate ump's job is to call balls and strikes, while base umps call plays on the bases. We never see the home blue overrule a tag or slide call at third base, even when he has a better angle than the base ump (for example, standing behind a sliding runner; that's a personal peeve from amateur leagues, where there are only two umps).