The Official 2021 ALDS Thread

[jad]

I could care less about sample size, or analytics for that matter. The Sox won the first 7 against the Yankees early in the season, and then went 3-9 against them. The last time the Yankees were in town, and swept the Sox they were better head to head at the moment. The Sox were struggling big time, and had a hard enough time beating the O’s, which they didn’t, and struggled to beat the Nats as well. So what? If the Sox had gone back to NY for that last series instead of Washington I doubt the Sox would have made the playoffs.

 

i.e., If we had some ham, we could have some ham and eggs, if we had some eggs.

[moonslav59]

Let's just pretend that Sox winning over 70% of ERod's starts from 2018-2021 was all luck, incredible run support and whatever else we can dream up.

 

No doubt, he has and has had issues- defense, too much nibbling and early exits, and a body language that impresses nobody, but he probably has the best team winning record in MLB since 2018. His stats are pretty good- not best winning % good, but still pretty damn good.

 

All of this in no way changes the fact that I have very little confidence in him, at this moment in time. Hopefully, that will change, soon.

 

[moonslav59]

I too like where the Sox stand right now. The ALDS is theirs to win. What I don’t understand is why you now claim the Rays really ain’t so good. Those “little things” are hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning, all of which they usually do better than the Sox.

 

What we are looking at now is an upset. Why is that somehow unworthy? The Sox having to play the wild card game and starting Eovaldi gave the Rays a big advantage. Cora had to send ERod up against McClanahan, a mismatch which ensured game 1 for the Rays. Fair enough.

 

Then last night Sale handed game 2 over to the Rays in the first inning when he gave up 5 runs, after which catastrophe struck! The Rays, not the Sox.

 

Cora had already set that in motion by gambling JDM, who did not play in game 1, could still hit with a bad ankle and stuck him in the lineup. Then he pulled Sale after one inning and sent in his best reliever in the 2d freaking inning. He gambled Houck could hold ‘em while the lineup kicked them in the ass—which both did magnificently.

 

Cash helped the Sox by not sending in his best relievers to keep that 3 run lead. Cora simply outmanaged Cash, and the Sox bullpen and lineup came through big time as they did in the Nats series. And against the Yankees.

 

I didn't say the Rays weren't any good.

 

What changed? We now have home field advantage and momentum.

 

The Rays do the little things better than we do, but we do a few of big things better.

 

That was true all year.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It sounds like Pivetta will likely be the starter for game 4.

https://nesn.com/2021/10/nick-pivetta-most-likely-will-get-ball-red-sox-rays-alds-game-4/

 

I find this surprising, why Pivetta over E-Rod? Pivetta threw more pitches than E-Rod in game 1.

 

I guess they want to save E-Rod for game 5? Maybe they don't have any confidence in Sale at this point?

 

I take the position that if the Red Sox lose game 3, the series is over, the Rays will win. I see game 3 as a must win since the Red Sox best SP is on the mound.

 

Edit: I might be inclined to go with a bullpen game in game 3 and move Eavoldi to game 4.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Maxbialystock]

I didn't say the Rays weren't any good.

 

What changed? We now have home field advantage and momentum.

 

The Rays do the little things better than we do, but we do a few of big things better.

 

That was true all year.

 

The only big things the Sox do better is manage. The Rays hitting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning are all better.

 

As evidence I cite game 1 and game 2 of this ALDS. The Rays won game 1 easily and, based on Sale's horrible start, should have won game 2 easily if Cash had taken it seriously as Cora in fact did. Instead, Cash did not use his best relievers, Cora had gambled JDM could still hit with a bad ankle, and the Sox hitting erupted. As others have pointed out, even when the Rays came back to make the score 8-6 Sox, Cash still did not send his good relievers out but a starter instead, and Wacha got stomped on. To me game 1 showed that, when the Rays put their best pitchers on the mound, they can beat the Sox. Cora's smarts ain't much good if the players don't deliver.

 

And game 2 demonstrated that Cora can persevere even when his 2d best starter gives up 5 freaking runs in the first inning. I exaggerate of course because Houck had to pitch 5 terrific innings in relief, the rest of the bullpen pitch 3 scoreless innings, and the Sox lineup to erupt as they did on August 11th (20-8 at Fenway and against the Rays).

[moonslav59]

The only big things the Sox do better is manage. The Rays hitting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning are all better.

 

As evidence I cite game 1 and game 2 of this ALDS. The Rays won game 1 easily and, based on Sale's horrible start, should have won game 2 easily if Cash had taken it seriously as Cora in fact did. Instead, Cash did not use his best relievers, Cora had gambled JDM could still hit with a bad ankle, and the Sox hitting erupted. As others have pointed out, even when the Rays came back to make the score 8-6 Sox, Cash still did not send his good relievers out but a starter instead, and Wacha got stomped on. To me game 1 showed that, when the Rays put their best pitchers on the mound, they can beat the Sox. Cora's smarts ain't much good if the players don't deliver.

 

And game 2 demonstrated that Cora can persevere even when his 2d best starter gives up 5 freaking runs in the first inning. I exaggerate of course because Houck had to pitch 5 terrific innings in relief, the rest of the bullpen pitch 3 scoreless innings, and the Sox lineup to erupt as they did on August 11th (20-8 at Fenway and against the Rays).

 

2 games prove nothing.

 

BTW, he hit better than the Rays. (.777 to .749) That's a big thing.

 

They scored more due to better timely hitting and better baserunning, but we hit better.

 

Want evidence? Look at game 2. LOL.

 

BTW, we blew the Rays away in SP'er fWAR (14.6 to 10.8).

 

[moonslav59]

It sounds like Pivetta will likely be the starter for game 4.

https://nesn.com/2021/10/nick-pivetta-most-likely-will-get-ball-red-sox-rays-alds-game-4/

 

I find this surprising, why Pivetta over E-Rod? Pivetta threw more pitches than E-Rod in game 1.

 

I guess they want to save E-Rod for game 5? Maybe they don't have any confidence in Sale at this point?

 

I take the position that if the Red Sox lose game 3, the series is over, the Rays will win. I see game 3 as a must win since the Red Sox best SP is on the mound.

 

Edit: I might be inclined to go with a bullpen game in game 3 and move Eavoldi to game 4.

 

Game 3 is the big game. Eovaldi is on extra rest. Why push him back?

 

Pivetta may work out better than ERod, especially since both would be on short rest.

 

I trust Cora.

 

Interesting choice.

[oldtimer]

Game 3 is the big game. Eovaldi is on extra rest. Why push him back?

 

Pivetta may work out better than ERod, especially since both would be on short rest.

 

I trust Cora.

 

Interesting choice.

 

The Rays seem to dominate our lefties. Maybe Pivetta makes more sense from that POV also.

[moonslav59]

The Rays seem to dominate our lefties. Maybe Pivetta makes more sense from that POV also.

 

Pivetta has been hot and cold pretty much all year. He's risen to the occasion a few times.

 

Need Big Nate to come through, first.

 

One game at a time.

[jad]

The fan obsession with E-rod's "body language" or "lack of emotion" says more about fandom than athletics. Not every athlete has to charge into the dugout in rage after a K, throwing bats around and smashing things, a la Keven Youkilis before Manny offered to punch him out for doing it. Getting excited, jumping up and down, pounding one's chest, and screaming is entertaining (and sports is, after all, entertainment), but has absolutely nothing to do with effective performance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The fan obsession with E-rod's "body language" or "lack of emotion" says more about fandom than athletics. Not every athlete has to charge into the dugout in rage after a K, throwing bats around and smashing things, a la Keven Youkilis before Manny offered to punch him out for doing it. Getting excited, jumping up and down, pounding one's chest, and screaming is entertaining (and sports is, after all, entertainment), but has absolutely nothing to do with effective performance.

 

Good point. Stoic is the preferred approach for pros. Mike Yaz from SF was just comparing growing up as a fan of Boston, with playing for the Giants; fans ride the emotional ups and downs, while the pros seek to never get too high or too low. It's natural fans are attracted to players who "look like" they care as much as they do, because we don't really know what guys like ERod are thinking inside.

 

To be absolutely contrary, I have more confidence in Houck when he never changes his expressions than Ottavino, who wears his hangers on his frowns.

[Bellhorn04]

2 games prove nothing.

 

BTW, he hit better than the Rays. (.777 to .749) That's a big thing.

 

They scored more due to better timely hitting and better baserunning, but we hit better.

 

You're kidding, right?

 

The Rays had an OPS+ of 112 compared to the Red Sox OPS+ of 104.

[Bellhorn04]

The fan obsession with E-rod's "body language" or "lack of emotion" says more about fandom than athletics. Not every athlete has to charge into the dugout in rage after a K, throwing bats around and smashing things, a la Keven Youkilis before Manny offered to punch him out for doing it. Getting excited, jumping up and down, pounding one's chest, and screaming is entertaining (and sports is, after all, entertainment), but has absolutely nothing to do with effective performance.

 

Also, tough guy fans love saying "deer in the headlights".

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also, tough guy fans love saying "deer in the headlights".

 

Some deer aren't afraid to move, they're just stubborn... domesticated, even.

[Kimmi]

We have to break the pattern.

 

Last night, we out hit them 9-6 and they even committed an error.

 

Walks and key hits by them, and the lack of walks and key hits by us, hard hit outs by us and soft hits by them (not all of them) has been something we seem to fall into for long stretches.

 

We need to break the pattern- starting tonight.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Rays are where they are offensively in large part because of cluster luck.

[Kimmi]

We know you've already got that one wrong. The reality is that the Rays could easily flip your prediction watching last night game the Rays have solid good pitching with a strong BP and good defense and some pop all the right combination to go far in the playoffs they didn't fluke out their divisional title this season the won it fair and square. We keep overlooking what they accomplish with a low budget and young talent with no superstar. They got another good young fireballer going today in Shane Baz could be another tough day for the Red Sox hitter today. They very well could be in WS as the AL Champions.

 

The Rays are a very good team. I won't deny that. It's amazing how they never seem to skip a beat, regardless of which players they lose. At this point, I like our chances even more. Today's game will end up being the deciding game of the series, IMO. Win today and I think we take the series in four.

[Kimmi]

Not yet, as the ALDS is a best of 5. So if Sale wins tonight and the Sox take both at Fenway. It’s not likely IMO but it is certainly possible…

 

Since I'm not posting in the game threads, I have to give a shoutout to Houck here. Our offense exploded, but IMO, Houck was the MVP of that game.

[Kimmi]

Rays are the best at clustering hits and runs when they have to. It's not random. They are mentally strong when they have to execute. The sample is not small.

 

Kimmi's nostrils were made to quiver by this post.

 

LOL I was about to post something in response to iortiz, but this sums it up well enough. LOL

[Kimmi]

LOL really?

 

Rays somehow very often hit at clutch. It is not coincidence or randomness.

 

It's not called "cluster luck" for nothing.

 

Teams have little control over the clustering of their hits.

[Kimmi]

Geez, thanks for the concerns, guys. I'm ok, and just made a bad joke about ESPN and Fox by not naming them directly when calling them "Yankee" channels (which, anyone watching their constant ARod/Judge/Bucky features may possibly agree with). I'm actually content with anything that happens the rest of the postseason -- since the underdogs knocked off the overrateds in the WC.

 

I'm with you. I hate seeing those kinds of clips, despite our recent WS success. If the Rays end up winning this series, I don't ever want to see that Arozarena clip again. Of course, if we win, they can show the clip as much as they want to.

[oldtimer]

It's not called "cluster luck" for nothing.

 

Teams have little control over the clustering of their hits.

 

Putting your best hitters consecutively in the lineup seems to be the best way to cluster hits. The manager therefore can set the lineup to obtain the highest probability of hits in clusters. Am I missing the meaning of cluster hitting (luck)?

[Kimmi]

Putting your best hitters consecutively in the lineup seems to be the best way to cluster hits. The manager therefore can set the lineup to obtain the highest probability of hits in clusters. Am I missing the meaning of cluster hitting (luck)?

 

There's more to it than that. The best example is of two teams both getting 9 singles in a game. Team 1 gets those 9 singles in the same inning. They are going to score 6 runs, assuming no double plays in between. Team 2 gets 1 single each inning. They won't score any runs.

 

On a somewhat related note, there was something very cool about JD hitting 6th in Friday's game. To me, the line up seemed much more lengthened.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I too like where the Sox stand right now. The ALDS is theirs to win. What I don’t understand is why you now claim the Rays really ain’t so good. Those “little things” are hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning, all of which they usually do better than the Sox.

 

What we are looking at now is an upset. Why is that somehow unworthy? The Sox having to play the wild card game and starting Eovaldi gave the Rays a big advantage. Cora had to send ERod up against McClanahan, a mismatch which ensured game 1 for the Rays. Fair enough.

 

Then last night Sale handed game 2 over to the Rays in the first inning when he gave up 5 runs, after which catastrophe struck! The Rays, not the Sox.

 

Cora had already set that in motion by gambling JDM, who did not play in game 1, could still hit with a bad ankle and stuck him in the lineup. Then he pulled Sale after one inning and sent in his best reliever in the 2d freaking inning. He gambled Houck could hold ‘em while the lineup kicked them in the ass—which both did magnificently.

 

Cash helped the Sox by not sending in his best relievers to keep that 3 run lead. Cora simply outmanaged Cash, and the Sox bullpen and lineup came through big time as they did in the Nats series. And against the Yankees.

 

Actually, McHugh is one of the Rays' best relievers. Wisler, he pretty much had nothing on Friday.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Game 3 is the big game. Eovaldi is on extra rest. Why push him back?

 

Pivetta may work out better than ERod, especially since both would be on short rest.

 

I trust Cora.

 

Interesting choice.

 

It's a no-brainer. This is the game the SOX have to win, and this is the game you want your best pitcher starting.

[moonslav59]

It's a no-brainer. This is the game the SOX have to win, and this is the game you want your best pitcher starting.

 

Plus, not to think past one game at a time, Eovaldi in game 3 lines him up for game 1 of the ALCS.

[Maxbialystock]

Since I'm not posting in the game threads, I have to give a shoutout to Houck here. Our offense exploded, but IMO, Houck was the MVP of that game.

 

Two mvp's. Houck was one. You were the other when, in the midst of the Sox losing game 1, you said the Sox would win the ALDS in 4 games. Then Sale started game 2 by giving up 5 runs in the first inning. Who knew then that your prediction would hold up?

[Maxbialystock]

Plus, not to think past one game at a time, Eovaldi in game 3 lines him up for game 1 of the ALCS.

 

Yes it does, and that's certainly good news. Less good is that Sale and ERod both look like stinkers, Pivetta is up and down, and Houck can't pitch 4 or 5 great innings whenever Eovaldi isn't starting.

[moonslav59]

Yes it does, and that's certainly good news. Less good is that Sale and ERod both look like stinkers, Pivetta is up and down, and Houck can't pitch 4 or 5 great innings whenever Eovaldi isn't starting.

 

We will almost certainly need someone or two to step up in a big way, and that is assuming Eovaldi, Houck and a few other Sox pitchers that have done well, recently, continue to do so.

 

As of right now, with the recency bias playing a big role in our confidence levels, here is how I line up our staff:

 

Very High confidence:

Eovaldi

Houck

 

High confidence:

Whitlock

Robles

Brasier

 

Moderate confidence:

Taylor

Davis

Pivetta

 

Low confidence:

Ottavino

ERod

Sale

 

Very Low confidence:

Barnes

Perez

 

Inactive:

Richards

Sawamura

DHern

Valdez

 

[Maxbialystock]

Actually, McHugh is one of the Rays' best relievers. Wisler, he pretty much had nothing on Friday.

 

I stand corrected. The Rays pitching stats--individual WAR's--say McHugh is the Rays 3d best pitcher, period. Wisler, not so much. Wacha actually has a WAR of -.7, so why would Cash insert him when the Rays were only down 8-6?

[Maxbialystock]

We will almost certainly need someone or two to step up in a big way, and that is assuming Eovaldi, Houck and a few other Sox pitchers that have done well, recently, continue to do so.

 

As of right now, with the recency bias playing a big role in our confidence levels, here is how I line up our staff:

 

Very High confidence:

Eovaldi

Houck

 

High confidence:

Whitlock

Robles

Brasier

 

Moderate confidence:

Taylor

Davis

Pivetta

 

Low confidence:

Ottavino

ERod

Sale

 

Very Low confidence:

Barnes

Perez

 

Inactive:

Richards

Sawamura

DHern

Valdez

 

 

Absolutely neat list, with which I completely agree. Others may differ, but not by much. And a good manager cannot afford to ignore the recency factor.

 

With 2 very high, 3 high, and 3 moderate, I'm think Cora has enough to get through the next 2 or 3 games. There's another day off before the last game. So Eovaldi--on 5 days rest--hopefully goes at least 5 innings today and Houck, also on 5 days rest, the same Wednesday.

 

Tomorrow is tricky both because ERod and Pivetta will be on 4 days rest and because much will depend on today's outcome.

 

Tomorrow is tricky. ERod and Pivetta will both be on 4, not 5 days rest.