The Official 2021 ALDS Thread

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox are going to advance to the next round regardless of what anyone else does.

 

I'm feeling very confident, too.

 

I'm tired of hearing how great the Rays are. They only won 8 more games than us.

 

Sure, they do a lot of little things right, but we do a lot of big things right.

[YastrzemskI]

I'm not saying recency carries no weight. I'm terrified that we may need to go with Erod and maybe Sale again. Of course, it's our biggest worry, right now. Nothing is even close. My point has always been this can all change on a dime.

 

My point was that no matter how many times the champions of recency bias are proven wrong, they never seem to learn any lessons from those losses. If ERod pitches 6 shutout innings and the pen blows the lead, we'll be hearing our pen is "our biggest issue." If the bats go silent, tomorrow, and we lose 2-0, we'll be hearing how being shut out twice in the series means our offense is the "biggest issue" going forward.

 

If we went by recency bias, Robles would have been DFA'd long ago. Brasier, LMAO!

 

It was not all that long ago, ERod was coming off a very nice 16 game stretch. He's had 2 bad starts, and it's a 100% certainty he will suck his next start. Did we not learn anything from a season full of prompt reversals and sudden meltdowns or hot streaks?

 

Just read the first TB game thread and see how many people made definitive judgements about this team based on the shortest of short sample sizes, then yesterday's game suddenly has Sox fans thinking maybe we can win in 4.

 

I never said I "expect" one of the two to "get it right" let alone both, but it's not even a 60 or 70% certainty ERod will suck in game 4, but it sounds like many here think it is a 99% certainty.

 

I'm scared as hell he will suck his next start, and yes facing the Rays makes it even harder, but I will not be surprised if he does well enough to keep us in the game.

 

It sounds like many here will be in shock.

 

ERod’s performance was brutal and his body language seemed cavalier and indifferent. From a purely observational point of view.. he did not look shocked, angry or upset by his performance. He looked like he expected just that, and that concerns me. Things can absolutely turn on a dime as you said. Absolutely. I don’t really subscribe to the momentum contingent. It does carry over from game to game AT TIMES.. but let’s face it. You have to MAKE momentum happen. A game three doesn’t just fall into place because of a strong game two.

 

One thing I am sure about is that the fans will be plentiful and loud tomorrow. We all think that Nathan will deliver. Hope to God he does.. maybe…. Just maybe….. the Fenway atmosphere will give ERod a shot in the arm on Monday.

[Old Red]

There were times, this year, where the SP'ers carried the team for pretty long stretches, while the bats were cold and the pen was imploding or doing so-so.

 

I'm not sure I would assume some of the starters are doomed to repeat what they did their last outing or two.

 

That being said, I'm not sure if I'd have enough faith to go with Sale or ERod, again, but we may just have to go with one.

 

Moving Houck into a starter role might work well, but he's been doing a fantastic job in our pen.

Pivetta might be an option, but he struggled his last outing, too.

Perez? LMAO!

 

We'll go with Eovaldi for the all important game 3. It was great to split the first 2 games without Eovaldi, but just being able to use him once, this series, really hurts.

 

Who starts game 4?

 

ERod's on 3 day rest? But after such a short game, that may not matter. Then again, maybe nothing matters, and he IS doomed to have an awful game- maybe not.

 

Sale on 2 day rest? I can't see that.

 

Pivetta? He pitched more than Sale on Thursday and did not doo very well.

 

Houck on 2 days rest? I can't see pushing him that hard.

 

Perez? No freaking way!

 

Pen game? Maybe the best bet, and maybe the reason they carried 1-2 more pitchers than I felt were needed when playing 6 games in 11 days.

 

My guess is they start ERod but have the quickest hook imaginable.

 

 

How about Jose Santiago?

[dgalehouse]

I'm feeling very confident, too.

 

I'm tired of hearing how great the Rays are. They only won 8 more games than us.

 

Sure, they do a lot of little things right, but we do a lot of big things right.

 

The Rays have been in existence for 23 years. They have yet to " make their bones " , so to speak. If and when they do , they will get and deserve more recognition.

[Old Red]

There were times, this year, where the SP'ers carried the team for pretty long stretches, while the bats were cold and the pen was imploding or doing so-so.

 

I'm not sure I would assume some of the starters are doomed to repeat what they did their last outing or two.

 

That being said, I'm not sure if I'd have enough faith to go with Sale or ERod, again, but we may just have to go with one.

 

Moving Houck into a starter role might work well, but he's been doing a fantastic job in our pen.

Pivetta might be an option, but he struggled his last outing, too.

Perez? LMAO!

 

We'll go with Eovaldi for the all important game 3. It was great to split the first 2 games without Eovaldi, but just being able to use him once, this series, really hurts.

 

Who starts game 4?

 

ERod's on 3 day rest? But after such a short game, that may not matter. Then again, maybe nothing matters, and he IS doomed to have an awful game- maybe not.

 

Sale on 2 day rest? I can't see that.

 

Pivetta? He pitched more than Sale on Thursday and did not doo very well.

 

Houck on 2 days rest? I can't see pushing him that hard.

 

Perez? No freaking way!

 

Pen game? Maybe the best bet, and maybe the reason they carried 1-2 more pitchers than I felt were needed when playing 6 games in 11 days.

 

My guess is they start ERod but have the quickest hook imaginable.

 

 

The problem with the way today’s game is played you need the equivalent of 2 starters pitching every game, and the way the last two games with early exits by ERod, and Sale you’ve needed three. The game hasn’t changed for the better.

[moonslav59]

ERod’s performance was brutal and his body language seemed cavalier and indifferent. From a purely observational point of view.. he did not look shocked, angry or upset by his performance. He looked like he expected just that, and that concerns me. Things can absolutely turn on a dime as you said. Absolutely. I don’t really subscribe to the momentum contingent. It does carry over from game to game AT TIMES.. but let’s face it. You have to MAKE momentum happen. A game three doesn’t just fall into place because of a strong game two.

 

One thing I am sure about is that the fans will be plentiful and loud tomorrow. We all think that Nathan will deliver. Hope to God he does.. maybe…. Just maybe….. the Fenway atmosphere will give ERod a shot in the arm on Monday.

 

Agreed, and momentum can change on a dime.

[moonslav59]

How about Jose Santiago?

 

How about him?

[moonslav59]

The problem with the way today’s game is played you need the equivalent of 2 starters pitching every game, and the way the last two games with early exits by ERod, and Sale you’ve needed three. The game hasn’t changed for the better.

 

I won't argue with this, but it is what it is.

 

I'm glad we have big Nate going for us, but remember the rumblings after he let up 7 runs vs the Yanks just 3 starts ago? And, that was after he let up 8 H+BB and 3 ERs in 5 IP vs the lowly birds.

 

He turned on a dime. Others can and might, too.

 

(I would not bet on it, but it is possible.)

[Old Red]

How about him?

 

That’s what we need to start game 4.

[moonslav59]

That’s what we need to start game 4.

 

He's not on our roster.

[Old Red]

I won't argue with this, but it is what it is.

 

I'm glad we have big Nate going for us, but remember the rumblings after he let up 7 runs vs the Yanks just 3 starts ago? And, that was after he let up 8 H+BB and 3 ERs in 5 IP vs the lowly birds.

 

He turned on a dime. Others can and might, too.

 

(I would not bet on it, but it is possible.)

 

I didn’t worry to much about what happened to EO 3 starts ago against the Yankees, and that it would carry over to his last game. I don’t think he turned on a dime, and it was the bad start that was the abnormally, and just got back to pitching good like he usually does against the Yankees.

[Old Red]

He's not on our roster.

 

To old at this point. Big contribution in 67 though.

[illinoisredsox]

That’s what we need to start game 4.

 

He’d be working on only 51 years rest. Is that enough?

[oldtimer]

Not much mention of Barnes. Cora gave him a shot with an 8 run lead and he got through it, but looked pretty bad with a lack of command. He has a lot of work to do to regain the form needed to be a high leverage BP arm next season.

[moonslav59]

I'm very confident with big Nate on the mound, but every month, this season, I can dig up a 2-4 game sample size that looks scary.

 

Sure, ERod and other Sox starters have more of those sample sizes than Eovaldi, but my point is about not judging pitchers on just 2 game sample sizes.

 

7.15 ERA in 2 consecutive starts in April (6.06 in 3)

 

6.46 in 3 straight May starts. (5.79 in 6 straight April>May)

 

4.41 in 3 June starts.

 

10.80 7/31 + 8/6 (6.35 in 5 July-Aug starts)

 

11.74 in 2 end of Sept starts (7.82 in 3 straight)

 

This is not meant to raise doubts on Nate. It is meant to point out that most pitchers have 2-3 game rough patches several times a season.

 

[moonslav59]

I didn’t worry to much about what happened to EO 3 starts ago against the Yankees, and that it would carry over to his last game. I don’t think he turned on a dime, and it was the bad start that was the abnormally, and just got back to pitching good like he usually does against the Yankees.

 

So, a 16 game sample size followed by 2 bad games, means very little to nothing?

 

Not long ago, you were arguing that what the Sox had done vs the Yanks, days, weeks and even 2 months ago mattered. You implied we had little chance based on those games vs them.

[notin]

I hope we put put an end to this nonsense that Houck doesn't have the arsenal to be a starter.

 

Why? What is being proven is that he is a serious weapon out of the bullpen...

[notin]

He’d be working on only 51 years rest. Is that enough?

 

Also with a 30mph fastball...

[Old Red]

So, a 16 game sample size followed by 2 bad games, means very little to nothing?

 

Not long ago, you were arguing that what the Sox had done vs the Yanks, days, weeks and even 2 months ago mattered. You implied we had little chance based on those games vs them.

 

I could care less about sample size, or analytics for that matter. The Sox won the first 7 against the Yankees early in the season, and then went 3-9 against them. The last time the Yankees were in town, and swept the Sox they were better head to head at the moment. The Sox were struggling big time, and had a hard enough time beating the O’s, which they didn’t, and struggled to beat the Nats as well. So what? If the Sox had gone back to NY for that last series instead of Washington I doubt the Sox would have made the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I could care less about sample size, or analytics for that matter. The Sox won the first 7 against the Yankees early in the season, and then went 3-9 against them. The last time the Yankees were in town, and swept the Sox they were better head to head at the moment. The Sox were struggling big time, and had a hard enough time beating the O’s, which they didn’t, and struggled to beat the Nats as well. So what? If the Sox had gone back to NY for that last series instead of Washington I doubt the Sox would have made the playoffs.

 

So, you were right, then?

 

Those past games mattered and we lost the slot in the playoffs and the play-in game to the Yanks?

 

Those past games (some the exact same games as the above example) don't count for ERod, because it fits your pre-determined opinion that he sucks and will continue to suck, right?

[Old Red]

So, you were right, then?

 

Those past games mattered and we lost the slot in the playoffs and the play-in game to the Yanks?

 

Those past games (some the exact same games as the above example) don't count for ERod, because it fits your pre-determined opinion that he sucks and will continue to suck, right?

 

Right about what? I didn’t know I was talking about ERod.

[moonslav59]

Right about what? I didn’t know I was talking about ERod.

 

My point was, those past games matter to your opinion on the Sox chances at making the playoffs and/or beating the Yanks in the play-in, but they don't matter in your opinion of ERod.

 

I just sense a change in criteria or a moving of the goalposts a bit.

 

Just my opinion. Not overanalyzing.

[Old Red]

My point was, those past games matter to your opinion on the Sox chances at making the playoffs and/or beating the Yanks in the play-in, but they don't matter in your opinion of ERod.

 

I just sense a change in criteria or a moving of the goalposts a bit.

 

Just my opinion. Not overanalyzing.

 

The play-in had nothing to do with the regular season it’s a whole different animal, and in any one game situation anything can happen. What’s my opinion of E Rod outside of his glazed eye look. I could care less if he won 16 games in a row in the regular season, that deer in the headlights look the other night was not very confident. Lot more pressure than the regular season.

[notin]

The play-in had nothing to do with the regular season it’s a whole different animal, and in any one game situation anything can happen. What’s my opinion of E Rod outside of his glazed eye look. I could care less if he won 16 games in a row in the regular season, that deer in the headlights look the other night was not very confident. Lot more pressure than the regular season.

 

Lighten up on ERod.

 

He missed all of 2020 with not only COVID, but also COVID-induced myocarditis (aka an inflammation of his heart). There were questions if he would ever pitch again, let alone make 31 starts and throw 157 innings. It’s really a minor miracle he’s playing ball at all, let alone pitching in the postseason after throwing that many innings so soon after his health-nightmare of 2020.

 

There is a lot in play here that has nothing to do with whatever “glazed look in his eye” people seem to cling to as if it has any significance. He’s had enough actual physical problems that confidence is the least of his issues…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lighten up on ERod.

 

He missed all of 2020 with not only COVID, but also COVID-induced myocarditis (aka an inflammation of his heart). There were questions if he would ever pitch again, let alone make 31 starts and throw 157 innings. It’s really a minor miracle he’s playing ball at all, let alone pitching in the postseason after throwing that many innings so soon after his health-nightmare of 2020.

 

There is a lot in play here that has nothing to do with whatever “glazed look in his eye” people seem to cling to as if it has any significance. He’s had enough actual physical problems that confidence is the least of his issues…

 

Odd that most are talking about Game 4 before Game 3 is even played. But in Game 4, it's a fact that one team gets a chance to win the series, while another faces elimination.

 

And it probably won't matter what Nate Eovaldi does Sunday when it comes to who starts Monday...

 

... it has to be ERod. He can be maddeningly inconsistent, and come up small in key spots -- after errors, bad calls, cheap hits, when it's time for a shutdown inning -- but there's really no better alternative. Pivetta threw more pitches Thursday, and Sale looks done.

 

Sale said he worked on his change-up all week, but he still couldn't find it in Game 2. Otherwise, he would've thrown it on the 0-2 pitch that turned into a grand slam. The fact it was a high fastball above the zone is even more cause for concern. Pre-TJ, could any .202 batter -- or hitter on the planet -- go yard on a Sale high heater?

 

ERod can be inconsistent, but that also means he's a better bet to bounce back. Sale may be an option out of the bullpen to face a lefty with two outs.

[Old Red]

Lighten up on ERod.

 

He missed all of 2020 with not only COVID, but also COVID-induced myocarditis (aka an inflammation of his heart). There were questions if he would ever pitch again, let alone make 31 starts and throw 157 innings. It’s really a minor miracle he’s playing ball at all, let alone pitching in the postseason after throwing that many innings so soon after his health-nightmare of 2020.

 

There is a lot in play here that has nothing to do with whatever “glazed look in his eye” people seem to cling to as if it has any significance. He’s had enough actual physical problems that confidence is the least of his issues…

 

I’m very well aware of what he went through last year, but he’s been back playing ball for a year now. I don’t think his look the other night, or his bad performance the other night had anything to do with Covid, and I haven’t heard he’s having any physical problems. He just like anybody on here, and when he does good he’ll get praised, and cheered, and when he does bad some he’ll have say he sucks like Bogey sucks, Raffy sucks, and last night Renfroe was the whipping boy, and sucked, who without any of them the Sox wouldn’t have gotten as far as they have.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m very well aware of what he went through last year, but he’s been back playing ball for a year now. I don’t think his look the other night, or his bad performance the other night had anything to do with Covid, and I haven’t heard he’s having any physical problems. He just like anybody on here, and when he does good he’ll get praised, and cheered, and when he does bad some he’ll have say he sucks like Bogey sucks, Raffy sucks, and last night Renfroe was the whipping boy, and sucked, who without any of them the Sox wouldn’t have gotten as far as they have.

 

His look was the same as always, which is as unemotional as he can make it. I do think he choked because he walked the first batter in both innings, which is why Cora pulled him. My heartburn with EROD is his unprofessional defense—he sometimes doesn’t cover 1b on grounders to the right. He has, however, pitched well in august and September.

 

He will start game 4 because he’s the best of poor choices, and Cora will again be ready to pull him early.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[Maxbialystock]

I could care less about sample size, or analytics for that matter. The Sox won the first 7 against the Yankees early in the season, and then went 3-9 against them. The last time the Yankees were in town, and swept the Sox they were better head to head at the moment. The Sox were struggling big time, and had a hard enough time beating the O’s, which they didn’t, and struggled to beat the Nats as well. So what? If the Sox had gone back to NY for that last series instead of Washington I doubt the Sox would have made the playoffs.

 

Wrong!!!! The Sox could not go back to NYC for the final 3 games because the had already played them 19 times. Stop making stuff up.

 

I might add the wild card game clearly defined where both teams stood in the postseason. The Sox were better, period.

[Old Red]

Wrong!!!! The Sox could not go back to NYC for the final 3 games because the had already played them 19 times. Stop making stuff up.

 

I might add the wild card game clearly defined where both teams stood in the postseason. The Sox were better, period.

 

Wrong. You didn’t even get what I was saying. What I said was as bad as the Sox were playing the last part of the season, and especially the last 9 games of the season if the schedule had been different, and the Sox had played the Yankees instead of the Nats who they had a hard time beating, and lost 2 of 3 to the O’s they probably would have lost to the Yankees,and not got into the playoffs. I know they had already played 19 times, and was just a what if. Don’t get so excited about little things. So a 1 game playoff defines who the better team is. Since when? The playoffs themselves sometimes don’t prove who the better team is just who’s playing better at the moment.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm feeling very confident, too.

 

I'm tired of hearing how great the Rays are. They only won 8 more games than us.

 

Sure, they do a lot of little things right, but we do a lot of big things right.

 

I too like where the Sox stand right now. The ALDS is theirs to win. What I don’t understand is why you now claim the Rays really ain’t so good. Those “little things” are hitting, pitching, defense, and baserunning, all of which they usually do better than the Sox.

 

What we are looking at now is an upset. Why is that somehow unworthy? The Sox having to play the wild card game and starting Eovaldi gave the Rays a big advantage. Cora had to send ERod up against McClanahan, a mismatch which ensured game 1 for the Rays. Fair enough.

 

Then last night Sale handed game 2 over to the Rays in the first inning when he gave up 5 runs, after which catastrophe struck! The Rays, not the Sox.

 

Cora had already set that in motion by gambling JDM, who did not play in game 1, could still hit with a bad ankle and stuck him in the lineup. Then he pulled Sale after one inning and sent in his best reliever in the 2d freaking inning. He gambled Houck could hold ‘em while the lineup kicked them in the ass—which both did magnificently.

 

Cash helped the Sox by not sending in his best relievers to keep that 3 run lead. Cora simply outmanaged Cash, and the Sox bullpen and lineup came through big time as they did in the Nats series. And against the Yankees.