The Official 2021 ALDS Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From what I just read from John Tomase, the Rays are better in every facet of the game and won't lose a single game in this series.

 

And yet, while considering how many Red Sox veteran players have World Series rings compared to the Rays -- I count 10 to ZERO -- I'm wondering: how many teams in history were ever such an overconfident favorite that it could start rookie pitchers in the first two games of a postseason series... and neither one of them had a nervous breakdown or at least faltered on the mound?

[moonslav59]

The actual Sox roster for the ALDS, without the confusion of incorrect additions and deletions, is 13 pitchers (a surprise to me) and 13 position players--

 

ERod, Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Robles, Brasier, Richards (huge surprise), Perez, Ottavino, Davis, Taylor.

 

Vazquez, Plawecki, Schwarber, Dalbec, Arroyo, Bogaerts, Devers, Verdugo, Kike, Renfroe, JDM, Shaw, and Santana.

 

I was thinking we could go with 11 pitchers but expected 12. I don't see the need for 13.

 

I'd have gone with 3 catchers.

 

That being said, the rosters looks fine, too me.

[dgalehouse]

You have to be pretty dumb to favor a team that has never won a championship over a team with four titles in recent years. To paraphrase The Greatest , Muhammad Ali , " If you want to lose your money , and regret it for days , be a fool and bet on the Rays. "

[Bellhorn04]

You have to be pretty dumb to favor a team that has never won a championship over a team with four titles in recent years. To paraphrase The Greatest , Muhammad Ali , " If you want to lose your money , and regret it for days , be a fool and bet on the Rays. "

 

Well, the Rays are the defending AL champs, finished 8 games ahead of us and were 11-8 against us head to head this year.

 

So I've seen wackier things than them being favored in this series.

[notin]

You have to be pretty dumb to favor a team that has never won a championship over a team with four titles in recent years. To paraphrase The Greatest , Muhammad Ali , " If you want to lose your money , and regret it for days , be a fool and bet on the Rays. "

 

The Rays have won 11 of the last 16 games between the two teams and did have some post-season success as recently as last year. Those factors both might be a bit more relevant to this series than the Sox titles in 2004, 2007 and 2013...

[mvp 78]

Lowe has a little higher overall WAR, and a little lower negative dWAR. He hit 5 homers vs. Boston, so I'm sure they'll have a plan to keep him in the yard. Arozarena can be a force on the bases and is more of a threat to hurt the Sox in different ways.

 

Lowe 137 WRC+, 4.9 BSR

Arozarena 128 WRC+, 1.5 BSR

 

Fangraphs doesn't like that Arozarena is thrown out every third SB attempt.

[YastrzemskI]

The Rays have won 11 of the last 16 games between the two teams and did have some post-season success as recently as last year. Those factors both might be a bit more relevant to this series than the Sox titles in 2004, 2007 and 2013...

 

What about 2018? 😆

[dgalehouse]

The Rays have won 11 of the last 16 games between the two teams and did have some post-season success as recently as last year. Those factors both might be a bit more relevant to this series than the Sox titles in 2004, 2007 and 2013...

 

You probably bet Liston to kayo Ali ( Clay) .

[mvp 78]

You have to be pretty dumb to favor a team that has never won a championship over a team with four titles in recent years. To paraphrase The Greatest , Muhammad Ali , " If you want to lose your money , and regret it for days , be a fool and bet on the Rays. "

 

Uh, I don't think this Sox team has ANY connection to 04 and 07. From 13, only Xander remains. Still hard to even compare 18 and 21.

[mvp 78]

What about 2018?

 

18 would have been a better comparison if they had done the right thing and signed Porcello in the offseason.

[notin]

What about 2018?

 

At least there are a few players on this team that played on that one. The only member of the 2013 team left is Bogaerts, and obviously no one is left from wither the 2004 and 2007 championship teams...

[dgalehouse]

Uh, I don't think this Sox team has ANY connection to 04 and 07. From 13, only Xander remains. Still hard to even compare 18 and 21.

 

The flags are still flying. No flags are flying at the Trop.

[mvp 78]

The flags are still flying. No flags are flying at the Trop.

 

Yankees have more flags than the Sox. I guess they should have won? Only the dumb man would have bet on the Sox.

[notin]

The flags are still flying. No flags are flying at the Trop.

 

The 1918 World Series flag is still flying. Think it intimidates the Rays?

 

"Guys, we are going against a team that won a title back when there when the Kaiser was threatening Europe and Woodrow Wilson was still pushing for the League of Nations!! So they are clearly experienced at this kind of thing!!"

[YastrzemskI]

the 1918 world series flag is still flying. Think it intimidates the rays?

 

"guys, we are going against a team that won a title back when there when the kaiser was threatening europe and woodrow wilson was still pushing for the league of nations!! So they are clearly experienced at this kind of thing!!"

 

lmao!!!

[YastrzemskI]

Santana and Perez may be subtractions by addition . The demise of Matt Barnes is a shame and a waste of talent , but unless he has a hidden physical problem, I'm not surprised that he's considered currently unreliable. He will have the offseason to visit his favorite sports psychologist.

 

Barnes was the closer for a significant portion of the season, even taking home AL Reliever of the Month honors early in the season. In the first half of the season, he held opposing lineups to a .174/.238/.280 line and .518 OPS in 38 games. By midseason, the Sox announced that they had signed the first-time All-Star to a lucrative extension.

 

However, Barnes struggled to a 13.50 ERA over 11 August appearances and only made six appearances in September, due in part to a stint on the COVID IL during the team outbreak. Over those six appearances, he threw a total of five innings, struck out six, and allowed two earned runs. The Red Sox still won the games in which Barnes allowed runs, but it certainly didn’t help his case.

 

By season’s end, Barnes’ numbers were nearly identical to the three full seasons before the pandemic. Between 2017-2019, he had an ERA between 3.65-3.88, pitching between 62-70 appearances in each of those seasons. This year, he had a 3.79 ERA over 60 appearances, though he finished a career-high 44 games and earned 24 saves.

[Maxbialystock]

The flags are still flying. No flags are flying at the Trop.

 

While I love the reference to the four WS titles/flags, I'm enough of a realist to believe the Rays are a tough out. In case you've forgotten, they beat the Sox in the 2008 ALCS.

[Maxbialystock]

Barnes was the closer for a significant portion of the season, even taking home AL Reliever of the Month honors early in the season. In the first half of the season, he held opposing lineups to a .174/.238/.280 line and .518 OPS in 38 games. By midseason, the Sox announced that they had signed the first-time All-Star to a lucrative extension.

 

However, Barnes struggled to a 13.50 ERA over 11 August appearances and only made six appearances in September, due in part to a stint on the COVID IL during the team outbreak. Over those six appearances, he threw a total of five innings, struck out six, and allowed two earned runs. The Red Sox still won the games in which Barnes allowed runs, but it certainly didn’t help his case.

 

By season’s end, Barnes’ numbers were nearly identical to the three full seasons before the pandemic. Between 2017-2019, he had an ERA between 3.65-3.88, pitching between 62-70 appearances in each of those seasons. This year, he had a 3.79 ERA over 60 appearances, though he finished a career-high 44 games and earned 24 saves.

 

I think the key to Barnes early success this year was relying on just two good pitches, fastball and knuckle curve--very much like Kimbrel in 2018 but without the posturing and with not quite as fast fastball.

 

I'm convinced that what killed him was the restriction on doctoring the baseball which affected that terrific knuckle curve.

[Maxbialystock]

The 1918 World Series flag is still flying. Think it intimidates the Rays?

 

"Guys, we are going against a team that won a title back when there when the Kaiser was threatening Europe and Woodrow Wilson was still pushing for the League of Nations!! So they are clearly experienced at this kind of thing!!"

 

Nicely said.

[notin]

I think the key to Barnes early success this year was relying on just two good pitches, fastball and knuckle curve--very much like Kimbrel in 2018 but without the posturing and with not quite as fast fastball.

 

I'm convinced that what killed him was the restriction on doctoring the baseball which affected that terrific knuckle curve.

 

 

 

MLB started to enforce the sticky stuff rule on June 21.

 

From June 22nd through August 7, Matt Barnes made 17 appearances totaling 15.2 IP and had an ERA of 1.15 and an OPSA of .530.

 

I'm not at all convinced it was the sticky stuff. He did fine for a long time without it.

 

I tend to look for simpler solutions. Possibly that after only throwing 23 IP last year, he simply was not ready for a long season. He did not start to fall apart until early August...

[Maxbialystock]

MLB started to enforce the sticky stuff rule on June 21.

 

From June 22nd through August 7, Matt Barnes made 17 appearances totaling 15.2 IP and had an ERA of 1.15 and an OPSA of .530.

 

I'm not at all convinced it was the sticky stuff. He did fine for a long time without it.

 

I tend to look for simpler solutions. Possibly that after only throwing 23 IP last year, he simply was not ready for a long season. He did not start to fall apart until early August...

 

Good answer. If it wasn't the stick stuff--and it probably wasn't--the long season could be the answer.

[mvp 78]

MLB started to enforce the sticky stuff rule on June 21.

 

From June 22nd through August 7, Matt Barnes made 17 appearances totaling 15.2 IP and had an ERA of 1.15 and an OPSA of .530.

 

I'm not at all convinced it was the sticky stuff. He did fine for a long time without it.

 

I tend to look for simpler solutions. Possibly that after only throwing 23 IP last year, he simply was not ready for a long season. He did not start to fall apart until early August...

 

^^^

[dgalehouse]

Yankees have more flags than the Sox. I guess they should have won? Only the dumb man would have bet on the Sox.

 

It was dumb to bet against the Yanks back in day. Not now. Folks who are mostly concerned with analytics and numbers just don't get the overall feeling of these things. The confidence that comes from winning . The doubt that comes from never quite getting there. The difference between them. We all know that anything can happen in a short series , but my money is on the Sox in this one.

[oldtimer]

Barnes was the closer for a significant portion of the season, even taking home AL Reliever of the Month honors early in the season. In the first half of the season, he held opposing lineups to a .174/.238/.280 line and .518 OPS in 38 games. By midseason, the Sox announced that they had signed the first-time All-Star to a lucrative extension.

 

However, Barnes struggled to a 13.50 ERA over 11 August appearances and only made six appearances in September, due in part to a stint on the COVID IL during the team outbreak. Over those six appearances, he threw a total of five innings, struck out six, and allowed two earned runs. The Red Sox still won the games in which Barnes allowed runs, but it certainly didn’t help his case.

 

By season’s end, Barnes’ numbers were nearly identical to the three full seasons before the pandemic. Between 2017-2019, he had an ERA between 3.65-3.88, pitching between 62-70 appearances in each of those seasons. This year, he had a 3.79 ERA over 60 appearances, though he finished a career-high 44 games and earned 24 saves.

 

I trust Cora's assessment of Barnes readiness to contribute. Perhaps the long season just got to him and the hope he can recover for next season as we have laid money on the line for his extension. I doubt if Perez gets in unless we get far behind. Santana vs Arauz or Duran is 6 of one half a dozen of another. Probably none of them get in without an injury or if a pinch runner is needed.

[dgalehouse]

The 1918 World Series flag is still flying. Think it intimidates the Rays?

 

"Guys, we are going against a team that won a title back when there when the Kaiser was threatening Europe and Woodrow Wilson was still pushing for the League of Nations!! So they are clearly experienced at this kind of thing!!"

 

The Kaiser was a choker.

[d-money]

I feel good about this series if we jump on them early tonight. Also i guess we should be rooting for the white sox in the other series.

[d-money]

Well ERod has a chance to erase his crappy season by pitching well here in the postseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well ERod has a chance to erase his crappy season by pitching well here in the postseason.

 

He led the staff in victories! After a lost Covid season! He won two of our last three must-wins on the same weekend a week ago! We got this.

[YastrzemskI]

I feel good about this series if we jump on them early tonight. Also i guess we should be rooting for the white sox in the other series.

 

I’m watching a bit of WS vS Astros right now. The umpiring is all over the place. Hitters are keeping their cool tho.. as are the pitchers. Outside pitches are being called strikes, not so much on the inside part of the plate but as long as it’s being called the same for both teams I don’t mind much, even tho I hate the whole idea of “well MY strike zone is blah blah blah.”

[dgalehouse]

I feel good about this series if we jump on them early tonight. Also i guess we should be rooting for the white sox in the other series.

 

I think the White Sox would be easier to beat than the Astros.