trade deadline

[Bellhorn04]

I do think your two statements are kind of contradictory though.

 

Your post about going over the luxury tax suggests that we should do whatever it takes to win this season because we don't know what will happen next season. Your post about Sale suggests that we should be more concerned about next season as opposed to how Sale might help us this season.

 

I do see a difference though. One is about spending a few extra dollars. The other is about a key player's health.

[moonslav59]

RECENT history. And it is not so much a first half v. second thing as much as a decline late in the season, which then carried over into October.

 

2020 was a cluster. I think Ottavino had one bad game that ruined his stats- the sample size was so small.

 

in 2019, his OPS Against was...

 

.724 June

.683 July

.634 Aug

.641 Sept

 

2018:

.604 July

.638 Aug

.542 Sept

 

How RECENT are you looking at?

 

His post season sample size is under 8 innings.

[Kimmi]

Personally I agree with notin and mvp that going over the first tax line this year shouldn't be a big deal. Chaim already said there was no mandate about it. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

The GM always says there is not mandate about staying under the luxury tax.

 

I don't see them going over the tax limit for a rental player. While going over this year, in and of itself, is not a big deal, the future ramifications of going over this year could be a big deal. The longer the Sox can put off having to reset the penalty again, the more flexibility they will have. IMO, we have to look at the bigger picture. This is not the year to do it.

[Kimmi]

I do see a difference though. One is about spending a few extra dollars. The other is about a key player's health.

 

Fair enough.

[Bellhorn04]

2020 was a cluster. I think Ottavino had one bad game that ruined his stats- the sample size was so small.

 

in 2019, his OPS Against was...

 

.724 June

.683 July

.634 Aug

.641 Sept

 

2018:

.604 July

.638 Aug

.542 Sept

 

How RECENT are you looking at?

 

His post season sample size is under 8 innings.

 

It is noticeable that the first 2 months of the year are far and away his best months.

[moonslav59]

Personally I agree with notin and mvp that going over the first tax line this year shouldn't be a big deal. Chaim already said there was no mandate about it. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

It's not a "big deal," but it's also not something you just do because you can.

 

Having one extra year on the back end of this rebuild is of value. The choice is about is going over, this year worth more than having to pay big taxes or reset again 2-4 years from now, when this team rates to be even better than now.

 

Of course, there is no guarantee we will be better in 2023 and 2024 than now. We may kick ourselves in a couple years for not going all in, this year.

 

I like Bloom's outlook and philosophy. It jives with mine.

[Bellhorn04]

The GM always says there is not mandate about staying under the luxury tax.

 

I don't see them going over the tax limit for a rental player. While going over this year, in and of itself, is not a big deal, the future ramifications of going over this year could be a big deal. The longer the Sox can put off having to reset the penalty again, the more flexibility they will have. IMO, we have to look at the bigger picture. This is not the year to do it.

 

I don't see the big deal about going over by a little. I've often thought that going over a little every year makes as much sense as the reset and then splurge idea.

 

Plus I think Bloom is just the guy to be able to manage it.

[moonslav59]

It is noticeable that the first 2 months of the year are far and away his best months.

 

Many times, yes, but when you put up .550-.650 OPS against in the later months, I'm not seeing a problem.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not a "big deal," but it's also not something you just do because you can.

 

This is not about doing something just because you can. It's about capitalizing on an opportunity.

 

If Bloom gets offered a premium reliever with little prospect capital going back, but a salary that puts us over the line, I would not want him to forego that deal.

[Bellhorn04]

Many times, yes, but when you put up .550-.650 OPS against in the later months, I'm not seeing a problem.

 

Career

 

516

566

867

735

635

704

 

Postseason - 17 baserunners in 7.2 IP

[moonslav59]

I don't see the big deal about going over by a little. I've often thought that going over a little every year makes as much sense as the reset and then splurge idea.

 

Plus I think Bloom is just the guy to be able to manage it.

 

In theory, this makes the most sense, and I think that was the goal of Theo and Ben, too. In reality, I think you get to a point where you think this is the year, and you splurge, when maybe you didn't really need to, but with the randomness of the playoffs, you go overboard just to "make sure."

 

Personally, I don't see 2020 as a year to "splurge," and it seems like Bloom & Co. did not see it that way, last winter, but we have won more than expected, and maybe that has changed.

 

Certainly many posters want us to make a big splash or two, which would have to be at the expense of future projected productivity.

 

I'm thinking Bloom still has his eye on the long term, but we have some pieces that are not part of the long term plan we can afford to trade. The question is, how much do other GMs want those pieces and what will they give us for them?

 

It might not look like much, but Eovaldi and Pearce did not look like all that much in July 2018.

[moonslav59]

This is not about doing something just because you can. It's about capitalizing on an opportunity.

 

If Bloom gets offered a premium reliever with little prospect capital going back, but a salary that puts us over the line, I would not want him to forego that deal.

 

I've said all along getting a salary dump type player at the deadline makes the most sense, since the prospect return will be lower, but we have a few million to play with, and I think Bloom will try to get a very helpful piece that still keeps us under the tax line.

 

That being said, if he can get someone way better, but we have to go over the line to get him, I can see him do that, and I'd have no issue with it. I just think there is a priority not to go over. Not a mandate.

 

Also, I could see us trade for a high priced player, then trade Richards, Perez or Sawamura to keep us under the line and free up a roster slot for Sale and Sawamura.

[moonslav59]

Career

 

516

566

867

735

635

704

 

Postseason - 17 baserunners in 7.2 IP

 

Those Aug-Sep numbers look real good.

[Nick]

There's no one that will give us the 'push' more than Sale. Today is another big day. Sale is scheduled to pitch in his 3rd rehab start.

 

I do want to point out to the management that Sale is just not any pitcher.

 

If he's healthy enough, he should be getting innings at the major league level.

 

What's the big deal? Our current guys hardly go past 5 innings.

 

It would be waste to pitch Sale in minors much longer.

 

Will he get hurt easier pitching 4 innings in majors as opposed to in the minors?

 

Are we afraid that Sale lacks confidence? That he'll cry if he gets shelled against major league hitting his first time out?

 

I rather watch Sale work on his pitches than Richards. Don't waste his bullets in meaningless games.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Getting Sale back is exciting. Would still like to add a late inning reliever.

[Nick]

You don't ever want to perform unnecessary surgeries. But this TJ issue is certainly alarming. With so much money invested in these guys, I'm more inclined to think when in doubt, go ahead and do the surgery. It seems inevitably the surgery will be needed.

 

Sale could have been ready for spring training had he had the surgery right away.

 

Anyone going to the Portland game today? Can you stream it on your cell phone? Please?

Edited July 25, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There's no one that will give us the 'push' more than Sale. Today is another big day. Sale is scheduled to pitch in his 3rd rehab start.

 

I do want to point out to the management that Sale is just not any pitcher.

 

If he's healthy enough, he should be getting innings at the major league level.

 

What's the big deal? Our current guys hardly go past 5 innings.

 

It would be waste to pitch Sale in minors much longer.

 

Will he get hurt easier pitching 4 innings in majors as opposed to in the minors?

 

Are we afraid that Sale lacks confidence? That he'll cry if he gets shelled against major league hitting his first time out?

 

I rather watch him pitch 3 innings than Richards. Don't waste his bullets in meaningless games.

 

I agree, but there is one danger we have to admit is possible.

 

Being the fierce competitor he is, he would likely throw harder in the bigs than in the minors.

 

There comes a point where throwing your hardest is going to happen. Is that time now? One week? Two weeks? Next year?

[Nick]

I agree, but there is one danger we have to admit is possible.

 

Being the fierce competitor he is, he would likely throw harder in the bigs than in the minors.

 

There comes a point where throwing your hardest is going to happen. Is that time now? One week? Two weeks? Next year?

 

Who is going to tell Sale not the max out? What you say is very logical.

 

So do you get as many innings as possible in the minors thinking that will lessen his chance of hurting himself if he does 'push' little harder once he gets to the majors?

 

What's the history of pitchers attempting to return and blowing his arm again? Anyone?

[jacksonianmarch]

Post TJS guys typically do not dominate their first season back. Same will be said for Severino if he ever comes back. Next year will be telling, but this year could be a mixed bag

[Bellhorn04]

Who is going to tell Sale not the max out? What you say is very logical.

 

So do you get as many innings as possible in the minors thinking that will lessen his chance of hurting himself if he does 'push' little harder once he gets to the majors?

 

What's the history of pitchers attempting to return and blowing his arm again? Anyone?

 

Look up pitchers who have had 2 TJ surgeries, I guess. Eovaldi is one.

[oldtimer]

Bloom is likely to pull of a trade that none of us saw coming. Not that it will be a blockbuster, just unexpected.

 

My own shoot for the moon is Trey Mancini. A first baseman, a real pro, 29 years old and control for next year. He is a right handed hitter but in Fenway he fits. I doubt if Baltimre will trade him but they need prospects. Maybe we have enough to interest them.

[oldtimer]

If we trade Richards we presumably have no roadblocks with pitching, we lose significant salary which could be applied to get a first baseman and a relief pitcher. I assume we would add other pieces if others want them. Chavis, Cordero a prospect. Time for Bloom to make a move.

[harmony]

You don't ever want to perform unnecessary surgeries. But this TJ issue is certainly alarming. With so much money invested in these guys, I'm more inclined to think when in doubt, go ahead and do the surgery. It seems inevitably the surgery will be needed.

 

Sale could have been ready for spring training had he had the surgery right away.

 

Anyone going to the Portland game today? Can you stream it on your cell phone? Please?

The start has been delayed in Portland:

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/senators-vs-sea-dogs/2021/07/25/645586#game_state=preview,game_tab=,game=645586

[jacksonianmarch]

If we trade Richards we presumably have no roadblocks with pitching, we lose significant salary which could be applied to get a first baseman and a relief pitcher. I assume we would add other pieces if others want them. Chavis, Cordero a prospect. Time for Bloom to make a move.

 

dealing Richards would be selling low and the only upside to Richards is the fact that he is controllable at reasonable money next year if he shows life at the end of this season. Right now, he has negative value.

 

The sox have a chance to do something big, but I doubt they do it. I think Bloom et al realize the power vacuum in the AL with the Yankees falling off a cliff, so they won't sit entirely idle, but I doubt they pony up for a Kris Bryant or a Scherzer. Next year, presumably with Sale and Houck healthy from the start, Pivetta in the middle of the rotation and maybe a QO accepted ERod, they could spend on a big arm to have a formidable top 5. That plus a stabilized Durran in year two and a lineup that still has the 4 horseman should make for a top title contender. Too much uncertainty this year and too thin a farm to gut with the window likely being a year away

[Nick]

dealing Richards would be selling low and the only upside to Richards is the fact that he is controllable at reasonable money next year if he shows life at the end of this season. Right now, he has negative value.

 

The sox have a chance to do something big, but I doubt they do it. I think Bloom et al realize the power vacuum in the AL with the Yankees falling off a cliff, so they won't sit entirely idle, but I doubt they pony up for a Kris Bryant or a Scherzer. Next year, presumably with Sale and Houck healthy from the start, Pivetta in the middle of the rotation and maybe a QO accepted ERod, they could spend on a big arm to have a formidable top 5. That plus a stabilized Durran in year two and a lineup that still has the 4 horseman should make for a top title contender. Too much uncertainty this year and too thin a farm to gut with the window likely being a year away

 

Richards did not cost us anything other than his paycheck.

 

If someone would take the entire amount owed for remainder of season then no harm no foul.

 

Having said that, we'd probably go for the infamous PTBNL.

[Bellhorn04]

I would not be so quick to trade Richards. Might regret it if other starters develop health issues.

[dgalehouse]

Must be a stressful time for the players , especially those with families. You don't know where you are going to be in a week or less.

[Nick]

Is Scherzer > E Rod (projected $15M?) + Richards ($10M) + Perez ($6M).

 

Bloom will not pull the trigger without knowing he can extend him.

 

Then the question becomes how much talent do we give up? Will the Nationals be satisfied by quantity versus quality?

 

Sale

Scherzer

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Houck

Edited July 25, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I would not be so quick to trade Richards. Might regret it if other starters develop health issues.

 

I'm not recommending trading away anyone.

 

I'd wait on Sale before trading away any pitchers.

[Nick]

Cordero starting at 1B today. He needs to get hot right away.

 

We should have training JD at 1B.