Since they lost last night, I need to tell you what I REALLY feel about the 2021 Sox!

[mvp 78]

Correct. Returning to the mean does not mean that they will play below .500 the remainder of the season to 'balance out' the above .500 record the first half. It means that the team's record from this point forward will be closer to .500 than it previously was.

 

Thank you.

[Bellhorn04]

I kinda like Gray, and if he doesn't work out he's a straight up rental.

 

And don't sleep on the under-utilized Cooper. Another name I thought of as a fit might be Christian Walker...

 

That would give us 3 Christians.

[notin]

That would give us 3 Christians.

 

Then all we would need is some lions!!!

[iortiz]

Having a lot of LOBs and RISP is a good sign for a team, whether they are able to get those runs in or not. "Clutch hitting", unfortunately, is not a sustainable skill.

 

"Cluster luck", clustering a bunch of hits together to score a lot of runs is just that - luck. It is also not a sustainable skill. Nor is it a sustainable skill for a pitcher to be able to scatter hits.

 

I'm not saying that getting hits for a batter or avoiding hits for a pitcher is not a skill. I'm saying that the clustering of such hits is not a skill.

Well it depends how you define "sustainable".

 

If you perform most of the times, it could be defined as sustainable.

 

This team needs some moves either coming off the farm or via trade in order to be more sustainable in the second half and mostly at clutch hitting. Gonzalez, Santana, Chavis, etc need to be replaced if we want to be considered a serious contender. I bet Bloom will make some moves regarding this.

[mvp 78]

Well it depends how you define "sustainable".

 

If you perform most of the times, it could be defined as sustainable.

 

This team needs some moves either coming off the farm or via trade in order to be more sustainable in the second half and mostly at clutch hitting. Gonzalez, Santana, Chavis, etc need to be replaced if we want to be considered a serious contender. I bet Bloom will make some moves regarding this.

 

I think Gonzalez is fine in a bench role. His glove is useful as a late inning sub.

[moonslav59]

Well it depends how you define "sustainable".

 

If you perform most of the times, it could be defined as sustainable.

 

This team needs some moves either coming off the farm or via trade in order to be more sustainable in the second half and mostly at clutch hitting. Gonzalez, Santana, Chavis, etc need to be replaced if we want to be considered a serious contender. I bet Bloom will make some moves regarding this.

 

To me, "clutch" means doing better in the clutch than not in the clutch. Performing better than the norm.

 

This is NOT sustainable. That does not mean we can't continue getting lucky for the remainder of the season, but clutch is not a skillset in baseball.

[moonslav59]

I think Gonzalez is fine in a bench role. His glove is useful as a late inning sub.

 

Especially when we go with the extra pitcher and short bench. His value as a super sub actually allows Cora to use the other, non-catching bench players more freely, knowing he has an emergency guy like Marwin at the end of the bench.

 

I will say, I think he's been used more than I think he should have been or needed to be. There was a time when he was like 6th or 7th in PAs- ahead of Renfroe, Dalbec & Arroyo.

 

The Kike & Arroyo simultaneous injuries caused some of that, but he was playing a lot before they got hurt.

 

His best role might be never really playing until the very end of games, when another move forces his role to be needed.

 

[notin]

Well it depends how you define "sustainable".

 

If you perform most of the times, it could be defined as sustainable.

 

This team needs some moves either coming off the farm or via trade in order to be more sustainable in the second half and mostly at clutch hitting. Gonzalez, Santana, Chavis, etc need to be replaced if we want to be considered a serious contender. I bet Bloom will make some moves regarding this.

 

Gonzalez is the best CF on the team. Santana is a bench player. Chavis is on the Worcester-Boston shuttle. Not sure these are the guys holding the team back…

[mvp 78]

Gonzalez is the best CF on the team. Santana is a bench player. Chavis is on the Worcester-Boston shuttle. Not sure these are the guys holding the team back…

 

Kiké is the best CFer. Gonzalez has 3 career innings at CF, none with the BOSOX.

[notin]

Kiké is the best CFer. Gonzalez has 3 career innings at CF, none with the BOSOX.

 

I was mixing up Hernandez and Gonzalez. My bad.

 

But then Gonzalez is a bench player so my point still stands that these are not the guys holding the team back

[moonslav59]

Hernandez is the best CF on the team.

 

Nobody believed me when I said this last winter.

 

It was all about Kike playing 2B.

 

I wasn't 100% right, as I saw a Cordero-Renfroe platoon (in LF, no less!) with Kike in CF and Verdugo in RF.

[mvp 78]

I was mixing up Hernandez and Gonzalez. My bad.

 

But then Gonzalez is a bench player so my point still stands that these are not the guys holding the team back

 

What is holding the team back is the starting pitching first and foremost. Dalbec is second or third on the list after that.

[mvp 78]

Nobody believed me when I said this last winter.

 

It was all about Kike playing 2B.

 

I wasn't 100% right, as I saw a Cordero-Renfroe platoon (in LF, no less!) with Kike in CF and Verdugo in RF.

 

Sox announced Kiké as a 2b (probably since JBJ was still unsigned). They had a hole at 2b that seemed like he'd be able to fill. It only makes sense that it was the first reaction. You were correct in recognizing his defensive capabilities in CF.

[moonslav59]

Sox announced Kiké as a 2b (probably since JBJ was still unsigned). They had a hole at 2b that seemed like he'd be able to fill. It only makes sense that it was the first reaction. You were correct in recognizing his defensive capabilities in CF.

 

I thought he'd play some 2B, too, but his metrics showed he was a very good defensive CF'er.

 

He seems to have stepped up his D in CF the more he plays there.

 

I never thoguth we'd bring JBJ back with those demands, so I guess I saw Arroyo at 2B as more likely to stick than Cordero playing FT OF.

[moonslav59]

What is holding the team back is the starting pitching first and foremost. Dalbec is second or third on the list after that.

 

Agreed.

 

I'd say these are our biggest needs:

 

#1. SP 1 or 2 (Sale?)

#2. SP 3 or 4 (FA)

#3. Solid Set Up RP'er (Houck/Bazardo/Valdez?)

#4. LH'd hitting Utility who can play 1B well or a 1B/OF type- maybe just a 1Bman- (FA)

[iortiz]

To me, "clutch" means doing better in the clutch than not in the clutch. Performing better than the norm.

 

This is NOT sustainable. That does not mean we can't continue getting lucky for the remainder of the season, but clutch is not a skillset in baseball.

 

To me it is. Some players perform better with RISP than others. Papi was by definition a clutch hitter specially in Pos.

[mvp 78]

To me it is. Some players perform better with RISP than others. Papi was by definition a clutch hitter specially in Pos.

 

931 career OPS. 947 career OPS in the postseason.

[iortiz]

931 career OPS. 947 career OPS in the postseason.

 

what is his OPS with RISP?

[Bellhorn04]

931 career OPS. 947 career OPS in the postseason.

 

The 947 in the postseason was against better pitching.

 

One of those things the stat people have never attempted to address. Not that I blame them...

[iortiz]

931 career OPS. 947 career OPS in the postseason.

 

his clutch stats are really impressive.

[iortiz]

The 947 in the postseason was against better pitching.

 

One of those things the stat people have never attempted to address. Not that I blame them...

 

very good point.

[mvp 78]

what is his OPS with RISP?

 

943 career. Can't find postseason splits.

[moonslav59]

To me it is. Some players perform better with RISP than others. Papi was by definition a clutch hitter specially in Pos.

 

If you roll the dice, not every sample size will come out to be exactly the mean.

 

BTW, here are Papi's numbers:

 

.931 Career OPS

 

.870 Late & Close

.943 High Leverage

 

Now, of course he had way more clutch hits in the playoffs than his career OPS would suggest he have, but the sample size is small and scattered.

 

Playoffs: .947 in 369 PAs

 

It looked like Papi was "regressing back to the norm" starting in 2008. He his .243 in 115 playoff PAs after 2007. (He did have 6 HRs and 19RBI).

 

It's hard to prove he had a skill that was repeatable, just because he did it so many times.

[moonslav59]

To me it is. Some players perform better with RISP than others. Papi was by definition a clutch hitter specially in Pos.

 

RISP in a 12-0 game is not clutch.

 

"Late & Close" and High Leverage are better defining "clutch" stats.

 

I can't find Papi's Late & Close playoff numbers, but I expect they were significantly better than .930, but that still does not prove clutch is a sustainable skill.

 

Even setting up a random numbers generator for a .930 hitter would generate some 395 PA samples sizes that are great, okay and bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Ah yes, the good old clutch argument will never die.

 

One theory that we floated at some point was that a clutch hitter is a guy who hits as well in big situations as he does in other situations. He doesn't get better, but he doesn't get worse. Which obviously implies that some guys do get worse.

[mvp 78]

The 947 in the postseason was against better pitching.

 

One of those things the stat people have never attempted to address. Not that I blame them...

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benoijo01.shtml 207 ERA+ in regular season, then Papi makes him famous.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml Runner up for CY

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/siegrke01.shtml 832 ERA+ in regular season, Papi hit a bomb off him

[mvp 78]

They walked him 4 times in game 6. That's how good he was.

[moonslav59]

Ah yes, the good old clutch argument will never die.

 

One theory that we floated at some point was that a clutch hitter is a guy who hits as well in big situations as he does in other situations. He doesn't get better, but he doesn't get worse. Which obviously implies that some guys do get worse.

 

I can't see how hitting the same as you normally do is clutch, but a 1.000 OPS hitter would get way more clutch hits than a .600 hitter, if they all followed their norms- which is something not to be expected.

 

The argument that these hitters are facing better pitching in the playoffs does not hold much water, to me.

 

I'm not saying what Papi did was totally random. Random shuffling would create samples like his, but what I'm saying is that just because a hitter did what Papi did in a scattered and short sample size, does not make it a repeatable skill.

[moonslav59]

They walked him 4 times in game 6. That's how good he was.

 

He was great almost all the time.

 

Saying clutch is not sustainable is not counter to calling him great and fearing him as a pitcher.

 

Man, that granny vs Detroit was the balls, though, right?

[mvp 78]

Controversial take:

 

David Ortiz was good.

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/10/15/every-david-ortiz-walk-off/