Since they lost last night, I need to tell you what I REALLY feel about the 2021 Sox!

[moonslav59]

I would think that the Sox ( and probably all teams) have their own private internal scouting reports on their minor league prospects. Their evaluation may indeed be different than that of the general public.

 

That’s a certainty. Nobody uses just outside sources to value their players or ones the want to trade for or sign.

 

My guess is, when. New GM comes in, he may not value inherited prospects as highly as the previous GM who acquired or developed them.

 

Of course, even players acquired may lose perceived value over time.

[Larry Cook]

That’s a certainty. Nobody uses just outside sources to value their players or ones the want to trade for or sign.

 

My guess is, when. New GM comes in, he may not value inherited prospects as highly as the previous GM who acquired or developed them.

 

Of course, even players acquired may lose perceived value over time.

 

Performance = value regardless of who drafted a prospect.

[Kimmi]

We may be surprised by a bigger move than expected, but we may value some players much more highly than Bloom & Co. do.

 

He may trade Groome, and we think, "Man, I'm surprised he traded a very promising pitching prospect," but maybe Bloom does not see a bright future for him (or some other rather highly ranked prospect).

 

I would not be surprised if Bloom surprises us with a move that none of us were expecting. (Is it possible to not be surprised at being surprised? LOL)

 

Again, we don't know half of what the FO knows. I trust Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Performance = value regardless of who drafted a prospect.

 

There is more to it than that. Prospects are often valued very highly, despite piss poor early numbers on the farm, and sometimes numbers over a couple years.

[moonslav59]

I would not be surprised if Bloom surprises us with a move that none of us were expecting. (Is it possible to not be surprised at being surprised? LOL)

 

Again, we don't know half of what the FO knows. I trust Bloom.

 

Bloom is somewhat of a wildcard, because his history was with a team that had a totally different financial strategy, and his time here was during a re-tooling phase and reset the budget restrictions.

 

I'm pretty sure we won't see him selling off free agents-to-be, like he had to do with the Rays, and last summer with the Sox, but what will he do?

 

I doubt we see any blockbuster deals. I think we will stay below the tax line and try to find deals like 2018. Low cost with high reward upside potential.

[Kimmi]

Bloom is somewhat of a wildcard, because his history was with a team that had a totally different financial strategy, and his time here was during a re-tooling phase and reset the budget restrictions.

 

I'm pretty sure we won't see him selling off free agents-to-be, like he had to do with the Rays, and last summer with the Sox, but what will he do?

 

I doubt we see any blockbuster deals. I think we will stay below the tax line and try to find deals like 2018. Low cost with high reward upside potential.

 

I agree that we won't see any blockbuster deals before the deadline. I certainly expect him to spend and exceed the luxury tax limit in the near future. We have the best of both worlds in Bloom - low budget smarts and a large budget payroll.

[mvp 78]

The "deadline" is the media concoction. Every year, they will look at some team and say "Why didn't the Jellyfish make a move? Why didn't the Buffaloes trade away for the future?" And fans buy into it.

 

And the focus on such a small window. How many times have we seen a team go make a deal on, say, July 2, and do nothing on July 30/31st some ESPN bonehead is asking about their inactivity? And then some fans actually buy into it!!

 

And if you really need to fill a slot, it makes no sense to wait until the last second to do it.

[Bellhorn04]

The "deadline" is the media concoction. Every year, they will look at some team and say "Why didn't the Jellyfish make a move? Why didn't the Buffaloes trade away for the future?" And fans buy into it.

 

And the focus on such a small window. How many times have we seen a team go make a deal on, say, July 2, and do nothing on July 30/31st some ESPN bonehead is asking about their inactivity? And then some fans actually buy into it!!

 

Is it all a media concoction? I don't know about that. I think history shows that most deals in July don't get done until close to the end.

[Bellhorn04]

And if you really need to fill a slot, it makes no sense to wait until the last second to do it.

 

True. But the number of games between now and July 31 is pretty small compared to the number of games between now and the end of the season and the postseason.

 

A lot of these deadline deals are not so much urgent needs as bolstering weaker areas.

[moonslav59]

Is there still no waiver wire deals in August allowed?

[notin]

Is it all a media concoction? I don't know about that. I think history shows that most deals in July don't get done until close to the end.

 

It’s a real deadline.

 

But the media attitude is ridiculous many times about inactive teams. Almost every year there’s some team that pulls of a deal in late June or early July and does nothing else at the end of the month and is labeled “inactive” and questioned about it. Milwaukee is a prime candidate to receive said attention this season…

[Maxbialystock]

The media attitude is predicated on getting fans attention, so of course they hype anything they can think of.

 

Right now they are probably disappointed that the Commish's enforcement of "no foreign substances on the ball" hasn't afforded much news since the first couple of weeks. Just one pitcher got nailed (so far), and he is appealing. And one pitcher pulled his pants down. The others are adapting, but not in ways that grab our attention.

[Bellhorn04]

Right now they are probably disappointed that the Commish's enforcement of "no foreign substances on the ball" hasn't afforded much news since the first couple of weeks. Just one pitcher got nailed (so far), and he is appealing. And one pitcher pulled his pants down. The others are adapting, but not in ways that grab our attention.

 

The whole thing has gotten better than expected. Kind of a pleasant surprise, really.

[notin]

The media attitude is predicated on getting fans attention, so of course they hype anything they can think of.

 

Right now they are probably disappointed that the Commish's enforcement of "no foreign substances on the ball" hasn't afforded much news since the first couple of weeks. Just one pitcher got nailed (so far), and he is appealing. And one pitcher pulled his pants down. The others are adapting, but not in ways that grab our attention.

 

And because they hype anything they can think of,they emphasize a very small window at the deadline as if it’s all that matters.

 

For example, Tampa has made a deal for two relievers and promoted a consensus top prospect. They might very well do nothing in the July 30/31 timeframe. If so, they’ll fall into the trade deadline “losers” column for the crime of being proactive. Had they added Feyereisen a few weeks later, they’d be listed as “winners.” Milwaukee added Willy Adames, who has posted all star numbers and played stellar overall, but if they do nothing at the end of July, they’ll also be listed as “trade deadline losers”. Again, their crime is being proactive. (They also added Rowdy Tellez in a deal tat should absolutely thrill Red Sox fans. He’ll be forgotten amidst the July 31st media hype, too.)

[iortiz]

We lost the last couple of series mostly because our clutch hitting wasn't there against s***** pitching. We left tons of LOBs & RISPs. Also our SPs wasn't sharp either.

 

Clutch hitting was key in the first half of the season, hopefully it keeps that way in the second half and not like the last couple of series.

[mvp 78]

We lost the last couple of series mostly because our clutch hitting wasn't there against s***** pitching. We left tons of LOBs & RISPs. Also our SPs wasn't sharp either.

 

Clutch hitting was key in the first half of the season, hopefully it keeps that way in the second half and not like the last couple of series.

 

They've been lucky in 1 run games so far. It's just going to return to the mean.

[Bellhorn04]

They've been lucky in 1 run games so far. It's just going to return to the mean.

 

It doesn't always do that. In 2018 they were 25-14 in one run games.

[mvp 78]

It doesn't always do that. In 2018 they were 25-14 in one run games.

 

It doesn't always do that, but we can't expect them to make a comeback every game.

[Bellhorn04]

It doesn't always do that, but we can't expect them to make a comeback every game.

 

Yes, our starting pitchers have put us in a lot of holes.

[moonslav59]

They've been lucky in 1 run games so far. It's just going to return to the mean.

 

That's not a certainty.

 

If they just play to the norm the rest of the way, they'll still be way above the mean at the end of the season.

[moonslav59]

Yes, our starting pitchers have put us in a lot of holes.

 

True, but they have also carried us in some ways.

 

They rarely get pulled before the 4th or 5th inning and are 4th in the AL in SP'er IP, so with a 13 man staff for much of the way, they have allowed our pen to not be over-worked all that much.

 

Our starters are also 4th in AL SP'er fWAR.

[notin]

Thinking Jon Gray and Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper as realistic trade targets… Edited July 13, 2021 by notin

[Kimmi]

We lost the last couple of series mostly because our clutch hitting wasn't there against s***** pitching. We left tons of LOBs & RISPs. Also our SPs wasn't sharp either.

 

Clutch hitting was key in the first half of the season, hopefully it keeps that way in the second half and not like the last couple of series.

 

Having a lot of LOBs and RISP is a good sign for a team, whether they are able to get those runs in or not. "Clutch hitting", unfortunately, is not a sustainable skill.

 

"Cluster luck", clustering a bunch of hits together to score a lot of runs is just that - luck. It is also not a sustainable skill. Nor is it a sustainable skill for a pitcher to be able to scatter hits.

 

I'm not saying that getting hits for a batter or avoiding hits for a pitcher is not a skill. I'm saying that the clustering of such hits is not a skill.

[mvp 78]

Thinking Jon Gray and Jesus Aguilar or Garrett Cooper as realistic trade targets…

 

Jesus Aguilar would be good. Pass on Jon Gray.

[mvp 78]

That's not a certainty.

 

If they just play to the norm the rest of the way, they'll still be way above the mean at the end of the season.

 

But it still trends to the mean as the % of 1 run game wins would be lowered.

[Kimmi]

It doesn't always do that. In 2018 they were 25-14 in one run games.

 

Though teams will often end up with really good or bad records in one run games, that record will eventually revert very closely back to .500. The point about one run games is that the notion that good teams know how to win close games is largely false. Good teams tend to win more than their fair share of close games than bad teams do, but that record typically still hovers around .500.

 

That year, the Sox were 8-2 in the month of April in one run games (.800). The remainder of the year, they were 17-12 (.586).

 

It's important to note that the Sox record in blowout games in 2018 was 38-17 (.691).

[notin]

Jesus Aguilar would be good. Pass on Jon Gray.

 

I kinda like Gray, and if he doesn't work out he's a straight up rental.

 

And don't sleep on the under-utilized Cooper. Another name I thought of as a fit might be Christian Walker...

[mvp 78]

I kinda like Gray, and if he doesn't work out he's a straight up rental.

 

And don't sleep on the under-utilized Cooper. Another name I thought of as a fit might be Christian Walker...

 

793 OPSA Away from Coors this year.

 

I didn't sleep on Cooper either. He's fine. I just think Aguilar would be cheaper.

[moonslav59]

But it still trends to the mean as the % of 1 run game wins would be lowered.

 

Yes, trend towards but never reach it, unless the script is flipped, which goes against the “norm”

[Kimmi]

But it still trends to the mean as the % of 1 run game wins would be lowered.

 

Correct. Returning to the mean does not mean that they will play below .500 the remainder of the season to 'balance out' the above .500 record the first half. It means that the team's record from this point forward will be closer to .500 than it previously was.