2021 Spring Training Discussion

[notin]

April used to have extra days off to cover for rain delays. Not a fan of front loading off days. The O's series should be game 1, game 2, game 3, off day. If there's rain, just use that 4th day as a make up. I realize that they put the off day on 4/2 as a make good to opening day fans if their game gets rained out.

 

I know, but it is, was, and always will be the stupidest way to handle the rain delay issues.

 

The more off days you put at the front of the season, the fewer opportunities to make up games the rest of the way. Having an off day one day after opening day seems like the dumbest possible time...

[Bellhorn04]

I know, but it is, was, and always will be the stupidest way to handle the rain delay issues.

 

The more off days you put at the front of the season, the fewer opportunities to make up games the rest of the way. Having an off day one day after opening day seems like the dumbest possible time...

 

It's just a marketing thing, making a big deal out of Opening Day.

[notin]

It's just a marketing thing, making a big deal out of Opening Day.

 

Really it winds up making a big deal out of the third game of the season.

 

If opening day gets rained out, they're still going to play the next day; whether it was scheduled to be Game 1 or Game 2 is irrelevant.

 

I'll try to not be confusing here.

 

If the Sox are scheduled to pay April 1, 2 and 3, and April 1 gets rained out, they're still going to play April 2 and 3.

 

If they schedule April 1, 3 and 4, and April 1 gets rained out, they do get in all three games. But they still start the season on April 2nd.

[Bellhorn04]

Really it winds up making a big deal out of the third game of the season.

 

If opening day gets rained out, they're still going to play the next day; whether it was scheduled to be Game 1 or Game 2 is irrelevant.

 

I'll try to not be confusing here.

 

If the Sox are scheduled to pay April 1, 2 and 3, and April 1 gets rained out, they're still going to play April 2 and 3.

 

If they schedule April 1, 3 and 4, and April 1 gets rained out, they do get in all three games. But they still start the season on April 2nd.

 

But it's about the people who have Opening Day tickets, no? If Opening Day gets rained out, those people get their Opening Day game on April 2.

[mvp 78]

But it's about the people who have Opening Day tickets, no? If Opening Day gets rained out, those people get their Opening Day game on April 2.

 

Snowflakes.

[oldtimer]

I see we have an outfielder Gettys at Spring Training who Cora has praised as an athlete with power but likely will wind up playing in AAA. I don't see him on the 4o man or the list of 30 prospects. Is that an oversight?

[notin]

I see we have an outfielder Gettys at Spring Training who Cora has praised as an athlete with power but likely will wind up playing in AAA. I don't see him on the 4o man or the list of 30 prospects. Is that an oversight?

 

Gettys was let go by the Padres after six season of off/on production. He has some good points, like power, speed and the ability to play all three outfield positions. However, he struggles to make contact and has some holes in his swing he has yet to fix after years (plus a foreign season in 2020 as the Padres did not invite him to their alternate site).

 

It’s not so much an oversight as maybe a player whose projected ceiling is being an AAAA up-and-down player. Every minor league system has a player like him...

[moonslav59]

Perez with a nice showing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Perez with a nice showing.

 

He's a good guy to root for because he's very active in using his wealth to help others back home, he loves being a Red Sox, and contributes positive messages on social media.

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

-Rodriguez is scheduled to pitch five innings tomorrow and Bogaerts is scheduled to play his first game at shortstop

-Danny Santana is still in the hospital with the foot infection and it's going to be a while before he's ready to go

-Cora confirms they'll use a five-man rotation

[moonslav59]

@jcmccaffrey

-Rodriguez is scheduled to pitch five innings tomorrow...

 

This blows up jacko’s whole projection foundation.

[Bellhorn04]

This blows up jacko’s whole projection foundation.

 

The Oracle has his own system.

[mvp 78]

The Oracle has his own system.

 

Established 2016.

 

5 Year anniversary!

[moonslav59]

Dalbec with another tater.

Pitching looking better.

ERod looks healthy.

[Jasonbay44]

Dalbec has been on fire. I have extremely low expectations this season so I’m hoping this team can exceed them and be a surprisingly competitive team, but we’ll see.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec has been on fire. I have extremely low expectations this season so I’m hoping this team can exceed them and be a surprisingly competitive team, but we’ll see.

 

They put him in the 9 hole yesterday. If he's there hitting 225 and 35+ bombs, I don't think we can complain. I'm not sure he's a long term option and do hope that Casas forces their hand at AA this season.

[Bellhorn04]

They put him in the 9 hole yesterday. If he's there hitting 225 and 35+ bombs, I don't think we can complain. I'm not sure he's a long term option and do hope that Casas forces their hand at AA this season.

 

FWIW I think JBay meant he had low expectations for the Red Sox this year.

 

You sound a little pessimistic about Dalbec.

[oldtimer]

FWIW I think JBay meant he had low expectations for the Red Sox this year.

 

You sound a little pessimistic about Dalbec.

 

I can understand some skepticism about big swing and miss guys on the team including Dalbec, Renfroe, Codero and Chavis. All have positive aspects to their games and we do have players waiting in the wings should any or all of them turn out worse than hoped for.

 

Dalbec is satisfacoty defensively at first and can play third. He was held back until turning 25 because of his high strikeout rate. His power is exciting but only if he can continue to make reasonably consistent contact.

 

Chavis is more of a utility presence who is not outstanding defensively at any position. We were concerned with his inability to hit the high heat. If he has improved in that regard then he could reach 30 hrs if used regularly.

 

Renfroe is someone else's cast-off. He reportedly can hit lefties so is a platoon candidate. His defense is very good. Will he be able to hit righties at anywhere near an acceptable rate

 

Codero may be similar to Refroe and used as his platoon buddy. Maybe the reason his was cast off was his inability to stay healthy. I assume his defense is acceptable but haven't seen him play

 

As others have said, Casas as isis developing should Dalbec slump badly. Duran is also a heartbeat away as is Downs. It's very likely that some of the players we are experimenting with this year will not be around for the 2022 season.

[mvp 78]

FWIW I think JBay meant he had low expectations for the Red Sox this year.

 

You sound a little pessimistic about Dalbec.

 

If he hits 250, I'll be surprised. Like I've said before, I enjoy the Dalbec experience and will look forward to 45 HR's and 225 K's. His OBP will be ok, but his batting average will be closer to Mendoza than many old school fans would like.

[mvp 78]

I can understand some skepticism about big swing and miss guys on the team including Dalbec, Renfroe, Codero and Chavis. All have positive aspects to their games and we do have players waiting in the wings should any or all of them turn out worse than hoped for.

 

Dalbec is satisfacoty defensively at first and can play third. He was held back until turning 25 because of his high strikeout rate. His power is exciting but only if he can continue to make reasonably consistent contact.

 

Chavis is more of a utility presence who is not outstanding defensively at any position. We were concerned with his inability to hit the high heat. If he has improved in that regard then he could reach 30 hrs if used regularly.

 

Renfroe is someone else's cast-off. He reportedly can hit lefties so is a platoon candidate. His defense is very good. Will he be able to hit righties at anywhere near an acceptable rate

 

Codero may be similar to Refroe and used as his platoon buddy. Maybe the reason his was cast off was his inability to stay healthy. I assume his defense is acceptable but haven't seen him play

 

As others have said, Casas as isis developing should Dalbec slump badly. Duran is also a heartbeat away as is Downs. It's very likely that some of the players we are experimenting with this year will not be around for the 2022 season.

 

I think Downs, Casas and Duran could all force their way onto this roster. Is it likely to happen? Probably not. I think at least one of those guys mashes and winds up being a starter after the ASB.

 

Cordero and Renfroe would be a good platoon in theory. We'll just have to see if Cordero can stay healthy. Also, who would the other OFer be aside from Verdugo? Marwin? Kiké? They have pushed Chavis into a IF only role. This team isn't set up for Cordero and Renfroe to be strictly platoon.

[jacksonianmarch]

I definitely can see Downs pushing for 2b or coming up should Bogey go down. I sincerely doubt you see Casas before May of 2022. You have Devers and Dalbec manning the corners and JDM as DH. You don't start a top prospect's clock unless you plan to keep him in the bigs. Durran, maybe? I think he gets way more hype than he is worth and is not a long term fit in any starting lineup.

[mvp 78]

I definitely can see Downs pushing for 2b or coming up should Bogey go down. I sincerely doubt you see Casas before May of 2022. You have Devers and Dalbec manning the corners and JDM as DH. You don't start a top prospect's clock unless you plan to keep him in the bigs. Durran, maybe? I think he gets way more hype than he is worth and is not a long term fit in any starting lineup.

 

There's a non zero chance that Dalbec is hitting .200 in July. If that happens, Casas will have every opportunity to come up, especially if the Sox are competing.

Edited March 18, 2021 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

I’m not sure why Dalbec should be projected to hit .200 to .225. He’s been a .260 hitter in the minors with a pretty large sample size.

 

Yes, he strikes out a lot, but unlike many other high K hitters, he walks a lot. That shows some discipline that many high K players just don’t have. His .360 OBP in the minors is more than decent, and even if he drops to a .250 BA and .340 OBP, the Ks won’t matter at all.

 

I know the Middy & Chablis comps are getting repetitive, but both of them had a .325 OBP in the minors. They both showed plus power and rather low BA numbers, but it was the low OBP numbers and non plus defense the made Middy a bust and threatens to make Chablis follow in his footsteps. I just don’t see that with Dalbec. He’s a decent fielder, and even if he hits .235 with a .333 OBP, he’ll stick around a be FT player.

[moonslav59]

There's a non zero chance that Dalbec isn't hitting .200 in July. If that happens, Casas will have every opportunity to come up, especially if the Sox are competing.

 

The double negative makes it hard to know what you mean.

[mvp 78]

I’m not sure why Dalbec should be projected to hit .200 to .225. He’s been a .260 hitter in the minors with a pretty large sample size.

 

Yes, he strikes out a lot, but unlike many other high K hitters, he walks a lot. That shows some discipline that many high K players just don’t have. His .360 OBP in the minors is more than decent, and even if he drops to a .250 BA and .340 OBP, the Ks won’t matter at all.

 

I know the Middy & Chablis comps are getting repetitive, but both of them had a .325 OBP in the minors. They both showed plus power and rather low BA numbers, but it was the low OBP numbers and non plus defense the made Middy a bust and threatens to make Chablis follow in his footsteps. I just don’t see that with Dalbec. He’s a decent fielder, and even if he hits .235 with a .333 OBP, he’ll stick around a be FT player.

 

Steamer has him at .234 and that's the high-water mark of projections. He only hit .234 in 439 games in AA in 2019.

[mvp 78]

The double negative makes it hard to know what you mean.

 

Fixed.

[moonslav59]

Steamer has him at .234 and that's the high-water mark of projections. He only hit .234 in 439 games in AA in 2019.

 

The fact that the .234 number you highlight is so recent makes your point valid, but I want to point out that his OBP that year was .371, which is 10 points higher than the rest of his minor league numbers.

 

I’ll take .235/.371 as his career numbers in a flash, even without the high HR and Slg % of .454. His 2019 number slightly improve if you add in his AAA numbers that year (123 PAs).

 

.239 BA (OBP dips to .356)

.816 OPS

 

Career in

AA .240

AAA .257

MLB .263 (80 PAs)

I’m just not seeing .200 to .225, but certainly it’s not out of the question.

Edited March 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

The fact that the .234 number you highlight is so recent makes your point valid, but I want to point out that his OBP that year was .371, which is 10 points higher than the rest of his minor league numbers.

 

I’ll take .235/.371 as his career numbers in a flash, even without the high HR and Slg % of .454. His 2019 number slightly improve if you add in his AAA numbers that year (123 PAs).

 

.239 BA (OBP dips to .356)

.816 OPS

 

As I said above "His OBP will be ok, but his batting average will be closer to Mendoza than many old school fans would like."

[notin]

There's a non zero chance that Dalbec is hitting .200 in July. If that happens, Casas will have every opportunity to come up, especially if the Sox are competing.

 

But then the Sox are penciling him into the lineup knowing very well he could be hitting .215 by July 1st. Chances are they pay more attention to what they know he can do - draw walks and hit home runs.

 

If he is hitting .215/.335/.450 with 12 Hrs on July 1st while batting 8th/9th, is his job really in jeopardy?

[moonslav59]

Steamer has him at .234 and that's the high-water mark of projections. He only hit .234 in 439 games in AA in 2019.

 

I can see .234, and of course a range of about 30 points plus or minus seems justifiable, especially for a rookie.

 

.200 to .265 seems about right.

 

To me, the OBP is way more important, and maybe that range is from .310-.380.

 

I’ll project something like this:

 

BA .235-.260

 

OBP .333-.360

 

HRs 35-45 assuming 550+ PAs