2021 Spring Training Discussion

[moonslav59]

Better depth than last year.

 

Better depth and better top 5-6, too.

 

BY FAR!

 

Yes, I get that we were the worst, so it's easy to improve, but just saying we are "better" as Jax said, does not tell the full story.

 

Even if ERod gives us only 100 IP at 80% of his norm, Eovalid 80, Richards 70, Sale 60, Perez 140, Houck 130 and Pivetta 130, we should still be way better.

 

I also have more faith in Andriese, Whitlock, Seabold, Mata and others than I ever had in Mazza, Weber, Godley and the scrubs that came after them.

[moonslav59]

Assuming he makes the final roster, he 100% will make some starts this year. There is no earthly chance your opening day starting 5 makes all their starts. Also, if he doesn't make the final roster, then he will be a Yankee farmhand again.

 

If you had to guess, how many starts will our top 6 starters get combined?

 

25 ERod

25 Perez

20 Eovaldi

20 Richards

18 Houck

12 Sale

 

That's 120.

 

Are you thinking 100? 90?

 

Last year, these guys started 26 games for us, and 12 were from Perez.

 

Are we "better" or "way better" than 2020?

 

Be honest. Even 90 starts from these guys would make us way better.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Red Sox games on tv next week:

Mon March 1, Braves, 1p NESN

Tue March 2, Rays, 1p ESPN

Sat March 6, Twins, 1p NESN

Sun March 7, Braves, 1p NESN

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Nick Yorke, the first-round pick in June, is in camp. Was in HS at this time last year.

[harmony]

If you had to guess, how many starts will our top 6 starters get combined?

 

25 ERod

25 Perez

20 Eovaldi

20 Richards

18 Houck

12 Sale

 

That's 120.

 

Are you thinking 100? 90?

 

Last year, these guys started 26 games for us, and 12 were from Perez.

 

Are we "better" or "way better" than 2020?

 

Be honest. Even 90 starts from these guys would make us way better.

Last year Red Sox starters posted 0.5 fWAR in 246 innings. That's a low hurdle to clear.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox starters with a 2021 WAR of 12.2 in 940 innings.

 

Other starting pitching projections:

 

Yankees: 18.0 WAR in 958 innings

Blue Jays: 13.8 WAR in 936 innings

Rays: 11.9 WAR in 942 innings

Mariners: 12.4 WAR in 943 innings

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

Edited February 26, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Last year Red Sox starters posted 0.5 fWAR in 246 innings. That's a low hurdle to clear.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2020&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox starters with a 2021 WAR of 12.2 in 940 innings.

 

Other starting pitching projections:

 

Yankees: 18.0 WAR in 958 innings

Blue Jays: 13.8 WAR in 936 innings

Rays: 11.9 WAR in 942 innings

Mariners: 12.4 WAR in 943 innings

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

 

I realize the major factor in our rotation improving more than anyone else's is the fact that we were rock bottom, last year, but the fact remains, our rotation improved immensely, and these numbers support my claim. Even if you pro-rate our 2020 fWar or 0.5 to 1.2 over a full season, the improvement is by 11!

 

That is astounding!

 

It also had our pen at -0.5 fWAR, last year, which would project to -1.2 over 162 games. They have us projected at + 2.7, so here is another rather astounding projected gain of 3.9 fWAR.

 

Our everyday players has a +7.1 fWAR, last year, which translates to +17.8 over 162 games. They have us at +20.1, this year- a modest 2.3 fWAR gain.

 

Put it all together, and we should see a major improvement.

[moonslav59]

Here might be a reasonable low to high projection for the 2021 Sox players:

 

SP

IP/ERA Low to High

 

ERod 100/4.50> 180/3.70

Eoval 80/5.80> 180/4.00

Rich 80/4.50> 180/3.90

Sale 60/4.50> 120/3.50

Pivet 80/5.80> 160/4.50

Perez 100/5.00> 180/4.20

Houch 80/5.50> 150/3.90

 

OPS

Bogey .880>1.080

Devers .790>.990

JD Mar .750>.950

Verdugo .770>.970

Dalbec .700>.850

Vaz .690>.840

Ren .700>.850

Hern .680>.830

Cord .550>.850

 

Gonzalez, Chavis, Arroyo & Plawecki: .550-.750

 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec?

[moonslav59]

Dalbec?

 

.700>.850 (I'd bet on .790-.840ish)

[mvp 78]

Dalbec?

 

This is a guy who OPS'd well over 900 last season at age 25. We can only expect him to be at or better than that as he enters his prime 27-31. I haven't been wrong in my projections of similar players like Devers over the past 5 years!

 

-jacko's Red Sox fan loving cousin

[moonslav59]

Here might be a reasonable low to high projection for the 2021 Sox players:

 

SP

IP/ERA Low to High

 

ERod 100/4.50> 180/3.70

Eoval 80/5.80> 180/4.00

Rich 80/4.50> 180/3.90

Sale 60/4.50> 120/3.50

Pivet 80/5.80> 160/4.50

Perez 100/5.00> 180/4.20

Houch 80/5.50> 150/3.90

 

OPS

Bogey .880>1.080

Devers .790>.990

JD Mar .750>.950

Verdugo .770>.970

Dalbec .700>.850

Vaz .690>.840

Ren .700>.850

Hern .680>.830

Cord .550>.850

 

Gonzalez, Chavis, Arroyo & Plawecki: .550-.750

 

Fangraphs projects:

 

IP Pitcher ERA

160 Perez 5.09 (seems about right- was at 4.50 in 2020)

151 ERod 4.31 (hasn't been over 4.20 since 2016)

150 Eovaldi 4.47 (hasn't had 150 IP since 2015- ERA looks about right)

132 Richards 4.50 (hasn't had 77 IP since 2015- 3.53 ERA since 2015)

112 Houck 5.28(hard to project, but this seems a bit harsh)

94 Pivetta 5.20 (seems bout right, but I am optimistic, here)

86 Sale 3.40 (hard to project)

37 Seabold 4.99 (unknown)

 

OPS Batter PAs

.865 Devers 658 (I think Devers busts out, this season.)

.854 JD M 644 (Would be nice- could be even better.)

.853 Bogey 651 (I'm expecting neat .900.)

.799 Verdugo 595 (I'm expecting over .850.)

.776 Renfroe 476 (About right.)

.750 EHern 427 (About right.)

.747 Cordero 434 (Who knows?)

.745 Arroyo 259 (Kinda high.)

.742 Vazquez 464 (Has been at .798 from '19-'20.)

.738 Gonzalez 336 (About right.)

.731 Chavis 238 (About right.)

.727 Plawecki 179 (Kinda high.)

.693 Duran 196 (Who knows?)

 

[moonslav59]

This is a guy who OPS'd well over 900 last season at age 25. We can only expect him to be at or better than that as he enters his prime 27-31. I haven't been wrong in my projections of similar players like Devers over the past 5 years!

 

-jacko's Red Sox fan loving cousin

 

LOL! Surely, if he were a Yankee, Jacko would be projecting him over .900.

 

I really like Dalbec and always have. I think he could end up over .850. He may have to make a few adjustments, so it's hard to know.

 

Gotta love the guys OBP, which sets him apart from many big and young HR hitters.

 

.359 MLB (92 PAs)

.362 MiLB (1609)

 

He's had 35 HRs in his last 657 PAs from AA to AAA to MLB.

He had 32 HRs in 2018 in 543 PAs (A+ to AA).

[mvp 78]

LOL! Surely, if he were a Yankee, Jacko would be projecting him over .900.

 

I really like Dalbec and always have. I think he could end up over .850. He may have to make a few adjustments, so it's hard to know.

 

Gotta love the guys OBP, which sets him apart from many big and young HR hitters.

 

.359 MLB (92 PAs)

.362 MiLB (1609)

 

He's had 35 HRs in his last 657 PAs from AA to AAA to MLB.

He had 32 HRs in 2018 in 543 PAs (A+ to AA).

 

We could be in for a very wild rollercoaster of a ride for this season with Dalbec. Dude could mash and be on the All Star team. A more extreme version of the Chris Davis MLB experience?

[moonslav59]

We could be in for a very wild rollercoaster of a ride for this season with Dalbec. Dude could mash and be on the All Star team. A more extreme version of the Chris Davis MLB experience?

 

True, and Davis had an even better OBP in the minors (.374).

 

It's been .291 since 2016, which does not help much. (28 HRs per 650 since 2016). Career, it is .315.

 

I'm optimistic with Bobby.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Vazquez down 15 pounds, Dalbec down 10, Raffy and JDM slimmed down. @MarlyRiveraESPN

was on the Baseball Tonight podcast today talking about how it stuck out to her how good the Red Sox fitness level was.

 

That time of year again, folks.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Vazquez down 15 pounds, Dalbec down 10, Raffy and JDM slimmed down. @MarlyRiveraESPN

was on the Baseball Tonight podcast today talking about how it stuck out to her how good the Red Sox fitness level was.

 

That time of year again, folks.

 

Hope this is good news.

 

I remember the reports of Pablito slimming down.

[Bellhorn04]

Hope this is good news.

 

I remember the reports of Pablito slimming down.

 

Pablito was pretty much a one of a kind model, though, thank goodness.

[mvp 78]

Pablito was pretty much a one of a kind model, though, thank goodness.

 

Built like a cement mixer filled with ice cream and two flat tires.

[mvp 78]

Sawamura update:

 

@PeteAbe

Hirokazu Sawamura yet to make an appearance at #RedSox camp. Cora said it should be less than a week and that he's on a throwing program where he is.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi starts Sinday. Richards Monday.

 

Cordero may return in a week.

 

Plawecki to be added back to the 40 man roster in a few days- roster move needed.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/02/boston-red-sox-notebook-nathan-eovaldi-to-start-spring-opener-franchy-cordero-progressing-toward-return-situational-hitting-a-focus-in-camp.html

[mvp 78]

No Northeastern or BC game this year?

 

How will we know if this team will be good enough to beat up on mediocre college teams

[moonslav59]

 

How will we know if this team will be good enough to beat up on mediocre college teams

 

Is that you, jacko?

[notin]

Built like a cement mixer filled with ice cream and two flat tires.

 

And yet he is still playing. I'd have thought he would have quit baseball to eat full time by now...

[a700hitter]

Pablito was pretty much a one of a kind model, though, thank goodness.

A Belt Breaker.

[moonslav59]

Best Shape of his Life

 

(Sucking it in, hard.)

[moonslav59]

MLBTR

 

Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez will return to the mound Saturday when he throws two innings in a simulated game, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays. That’s welcome news after Rodriguez missed all of last year because of myocarditis and COVID-19. Rodriguez was one of Boston’s top pitchers during the previous couple seasons, and as a pending free agent, the 27-year-old is heading into a pivotal campaign.

[TylerD]

Evo didn’t look too sharp.

[Bellhorn04]

Evo didn’t look too sharp.

 

First game of spring. No biggie.

[moonslav59]

We went from the killer Bees to the killer Dees.

 

Dalbec & Downs with taters, today.

[Bellhorn04]

We went from the killer Bees to the killer Dees.

 

Dalbec & Downs with taters, today.

 

Dalbec, Devers & Downs has a ring to it.