2021 Prospects

[notin]

0.00% chance.

 

Lower

[mvp 78]

Lower

 

0.000%

[notin]

0.000%

 

Better

[moonslav59]

Sox select 4:

 

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

Crawford

[moonslav59]

Sox select 4:

 

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

Crawford

 

Must mean we plan on adding 3 or more players.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com finally came out with their end of season rankings.

 

https://soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

They used to post them in October, but the last 2 years have been late November.

 

Here are the Rankings (Rise or Fall from Aug 8 rankings). Houck was ranked 5th and is no longer a prospect, so everyone after #5 moved up 1 by attrition, so I did not count that in my +/- numbers.

 

1. Casas

2. Mayer

3. Yorke (+4)

4. Duran (-1)

5. Downs (-1)

6. Bello (+0)

7. Jordan (+5)

8. Groome (+1)

9. Jimenez (-2)

10. Mata (+0)

11. Seabold (-1)

12. Gonzalez (+7)

13. Winckowski (+0)

14. Murphy (+1)

15. Blies (not in top 20 in Aug)

16. Wong (+2)

17. Walter (n/a)

18. Song (-5)

19. Ward (-1)

20. McDonough (n/a)

21. Bonaci (-6)

22. R Hernandez (was 14th in April)

23. Rafaela

24. Paulino

25. Crawford

26. Lugo (-7)

27. Hickey

28. Decker

29. Bazardo (was 19th in April)

30. Lira

31. Santos

Notables:

34. Feltman

37. Fitzgerald

45. Rosario (was 20th in April)

46. Howlett

48. German

49. Potts

50. Gambrell

52. Cottam

53. Castellanos

60. Granberg

 

[moonslav59]

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Yorke

4. Bello

5. Duran

6. Jordon

7. Downs

8. Groome

9. Seabold

10. Gonzalez

11. Mata

12. Winckowski

13. Jimenez

14. Blies

15. Song

16. Murphy

17. Wong

18. McDonough

19. R Hernandez

20. Ward

21. Walter

22. Hickey

23. Rafaela

24. Crawford

25. Santos

26. Bazardo

27. Feltman

28. Lugo

29. Gambrell

30. Howlett/Cottam/FValdez/German

 

 

[moonslav59]

I think our biggest gaps in skill value is between #4 and #5 and #13 to #14.

 

(I guess between #2 and #3, too.)

 

BTV has these values:

 

50 Casas

48 Mayer

22 Yorke

12 Downs

10 Bello

6.6 Jordan

6.0 Mata

4.8 Winckowski

3.9 Gonzalez

3.5 Seabold

3.0 McDonough & Rosario

2.9 Groome & R Hernandez

2.6 Bonaci, Decker & Lugo

2.4 Blies, Potts & Valdez

2.3 Jimenez, Wong & Murphy

1.8 Gonzalez (OF) & Lopez

1.7 Howlett & Walter

1.6 Bazardo, Cannon, Chacon & Ward

1.4 Song

1.3 Feliz, Kavadas & Vaughn

1.1 Rafaela & others

(Feltman & Santos are listed at 0.5/ Cottam 0.2)

 

Edited November 22, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Must mean we plan on adding 3 or more players.

 

That was my initial thought too. They could have just added another name or two and DFA'd the guys we don't like when it comes time to adding a FA.

 

However, they probably had internal discussions that said Ward/Jimenez were unlikely to be picked in Rule V so they determined it was more value to have open 40 man spots than protecting those guys. With Feltman, I think they just see him as a middle reliever at best. Guys like that come and go.

[mvp 78]

I think our biggest gaps in skill value is between #4 and #5 and #13 to #14.

 

(I guess between #2 and #3, too.)

 

BTV has these values:

 

50 Casas

48 Mayer

22 Yorke

12 Downs

10 Bello

6.6 Jordan

6.0 Mata

4.8 Winckowski

3.9 Gonzalez

3.5 Seabold

3.0 McDonough & Rosario

2.9 Groome & R Hernandez

2.6 Bonaci, Decker & Lugo

2.4 Blies, Potts & Valdez

2.3 Jimenez, Wong & Murphy

1.8 Gonzalez (OF) & Lopez

1.7 Howlett & Walter

1.6 Bazardo, Cannon, Chacon & Ward

1.4 Song

1.3 Feliz, Kavadas & Vaughn

1.1 Rafaela & others

(Feltman & Santos are listed at 0.5/ Cottam 0.2)

 

 

Big drop off after Bello. Mayer and Casas are clear best in show. If Yorke was a better defender, he'd have a higher value. There are reports that he may not stick at 2b long term. After that, it's just a bunch of $2 lottery tickets.

[moonslav59]

That was my initial thought too. They could have just added another name or two and DFA'd the guys we don't like when it comes time to adding a FA.

 

However, they probably had internal discussions that said Ward/Jimenez were unlikely to be picked in Rule V so they determined it was more value to have open 40 man spots than protecting those guys. With Feltman, I think they just see him as a middle reliever at best. Guys like that come and go.

 

It does seem like we have 3 glaring holes in our 26 man roster (maybe 4).

 

SP

SP/RP (depending on how Houck/Whitman will be used)

RP

Utility middle infielder

 

I think they new they'd cut these guys loose, eventually, and maybe did them a favor of doing it now. Plus, we may get selected players back, if the team returns them, later.

 

The thing that puzzles me, still, and I get that my evaluation of talent/skill level is not on par with Bloom & Co, is that I think several Rule 5 list players are better than Potts and maybe Rosario, Arauz and others.

 

Sure, these players are more likely to help in 2022, and maybe that's the deciding factor, but to me I feel those guys are easily replaced from the waiver wire with equal talent, should the need arise..

[moonslav59]

Big drop off after Bello. Mayer and Casas are clear best in show. If Yorke was a better defender, he'd have a higher value. There are reports that he may not stick at 2b long term. After that, it's just a bunch of $2 lottery tickets.

 

Would you think Yorke might move to the OF?

 

I think Bello, Downs, Jordan and maybe a surprise player or two could make a big jump in 2022, but I agree- big drop off and lottery ticket stuff.

[mvp 78]

Would you think Yorke might move to the OF?

 

I think Bello, Downs, Jordan and maybe a surprise player or two could make a big jump in 2022, but I agree- big drop off and lottery ticket stuff.

 

I've heard that scouts say his future could be LF. He's not very athletic. He's just a pure hitter.

[Hugh2]

I've heard that scouts say his future could be LF. He's not very athletic. He's just a pure hitter.

 

Defense seems to be the Achilles heal of Yorke. If this dude was a good defender he might be in #1 prospect of baseball territory, the man can hit.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Appearing on the #SP60 for the first time at 59th is 18-year-old outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia (pronounced jo-STINKS-on). He is passive at the plate and his swing is pull-heavy, but when he makes contact, he hits the ball hard and has power potential.

 

Garcia slashed .281/.424/.481 over 172 PA for the DSL Red Sox Blue in 2021. In the outfield, he has decent instincts, which he needs to make up for his lack of pure speed.

 

I've loved his name since the first time I saw it.

[mvp 78]

Defense seems to be the Achilles heal of Yorke. If this dude was a good defender he might be in #1 prospect of baseball territory, the man can hit.

 

If only the Sox had history with moving a pure hitter from 2b to LF. Ah well, nevertheless.

[notin]

If only the Sox had history with moving a pure hitter from 2b to LF. Ah well, nevertheless.

 

You mean like Wil Cordero? Or Chico Walker?

[mvp 78]

You mean like Wil Cordero? Or Chico Walker?

 

Cordero was more of a SS than a 2B.

[notin]

Cordero was more of a SS than a 2B.

 

You wouldn’t say that if you ever saw him play SS…

[mvp 78]

You wouldn’t say that if you ever saw him play SS…

 

Can't say I watched many Expos games in 92-95. Negative TZ wherever he played except 1b. Yuck.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Yorke cannot be a reliable defender, he drops a fair amount as he becomes more of a utility or COF guy. Reminds me of a guy the Yanks had named Nick Solak

[moonslav59]

If Yorke cannot be a reliable defender, he drops a fair amount as he becomes more of a utility or COF guy. Reminds me of a guy the Yanks had named Nick Solak

 

If the guy can hit, and it seems like he can, he's an easy candidate for LF or DH not utility.

[mvp 78]

It's not a terrible comparison, but that's not to say Yorke will turn into Solak.

 

Yorke in low A as a 19 year old: 323/413/500, 10 HR

Solak in low A as a 21 year old: 321/412/421, 3 HR

 

Yorke had more HR's in 2021 in A ball than Solak did in 2 years (including an age 22 season in A+).

[jacksonianmarch]

If the guy can hit, and it seems like he can, he's an easy candidate for LF or DH not utility.

 

Guys who can play the position but not well usually end up as utility guys, COFers and DH's. Helps the team out if Yorke can handle 2b, 3b in a pinch and not be absolutely abysmal

[moonslav59]

Guys who can play the position but not well usually end up as utility guys, COFers and DH's. Helps the team out if Yorke can handle 2b, 3b in a pinch and not be absolutely abysmal

 

He can probably play FT LF and not embarrass himself, especially with a team like the Sox, who play half their games in Fenway

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Another solid start from Kutter Crawford last night in the DR. 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 5 K. Included getting out of a bases loaded jam with Ks of Emilio Bonifacio and Chris Owings.

 

Now at 21.1 IP, 0.42 ERA, 23 K, 8 BB for the winter.

[moonslav59]

Where do these prospects fit in the rankings?

 

David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

 

soxprospects.com

 

1. Casas

2. Mayer

3. Yorke

4. Duran

5. Downs

6. Bello

7. Jordan

8. Groome

9. Jimenez

10. Mata

11. Seabold

12. Gonzalez

13. Winckowski

14. Murphy

15. Bleis

16. Wong

17. Walter

18. Song

19. Ward

20. McDonough

21. Bonaci

22. R Hern

23. Rafaela

24. Paulino

25. Crawford

26. Lugo

27. Hickey

 

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Where do these prospects fit in the rankings?

 

David Hamilton and Alex Binelas

 

soxprospects.com

 

1. Casas

2. Mayer

3. Yorke

4. Duran

5. Downs

6. Bello

7. Jordan

8. Groome

9. Jimenez

10. Mata

11. Seabold

12. Gonzalez

13. Winckowski

14. Murphy

15. Bleis

16. Wong

17. Walter

18. Song

19. Ward

20. McDonough

21. Bonaci

22. R Hern

23. Rafaela

24. Paulino

25. Crawford

26. Lugo

27. Hickey

 

 

 

I'd put Binelas after Winckowski at 14 (MLB Pipeline has him at 16).

Hamilton would be after McDonough at 22.

[moonslav59]

I'd put Binelas after Winckowski at 14 (MLB Pipeline has him at 16).

Hamilton would be after McDonough at 22.

 

Sounds about right.

 

BTV has these values:

50 Casas

48 Mayer

22 Yorke

12 Downs

10 Bello

6.0 Mata

5.4 Hamilton

4.9 Binelas

4.8 Winckowski

3.9 Gonazalez

3.5 Seabold

3.0 McDonough

3.0 Rosario

2.9 Groome

 

(Duran is 20 and Whitlock is 17.)

 

Edited December 3, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox Prospects by Position (soxprospects.com ranking)

 

P Bello 6, Groome 8, Mata 10, Seabold 11, Winckowski 13, W Gonzalez 12

Murphy 14, B Walter 17, Song 18, Ward 19, Crawford 25, Bazardo29, Santos 31

Wu-Yelland 32, Feltman 34, Drohan 35, Blalock 36, Chih-Jung 38, Wallace 40, German 48

 

C Wong 16, R Hernandez 22, Hickey 27, Lira 30

1B Casas 1, Kavadas 42

2B Yorke 3, Downs 5, Binelas ??, Cannon 41

3B Jordan 7, Paulion 24, Howlett 46, Potts 49

SS Mayer 2, Hamilton ??, Bonaci 21, Lugo 26, Koss 33, Fitzgerald 37

LF Duran 4,

CF Jimenez 9, Bleis 15, Rafaela 23, Lopez 39, Rosario 45

RF McDonough 20, Decker 28