2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

True.

 

But a lot of that was the littany of weak pitchers not named Uehara...

 

So they needed to trade for pitchers like Kimbrel then?

[notin]

So they needed to trade for pitchers like Kimbrel then?

 

If they did that, they likely could have gotten multiple arms for what Kimbrel was making.

 

The only real positive here is with extra money at his disposal, DD might have gone of and given some extension to a player akin to what he gave Cabrera...

[mvp 78]

Uehara could have closed in 2017. He declined a bit and was not as effective as Kiimbrel, but he was certainly still good.

 

Kimbrel was great in 2017 and the first half of 2018, but then he just fell off a cliff and was not even closing when the won the WS. His postseason that year was questionable at best...

 

In low leverage situations, his WHIP, ERA, FIP all spike to second highest of his career, but you think he could still close? All his pitches had dropped over 2 MPH since his 2013 season. O Swing % was lowest in 7 years. Z swing % was highest of his career. He was no longer fooling anyone. Even with pinpoint command, that's much more hittable.

[mvp 78]

If they did that, they likely could have gotten multiple arms for what Kimbrel was making.

 

The only real positive here is with extra money at his disposal, DD might have gone of and given some extension to a player akin to what he gave Cabrera...

 

Like Mookie?

[notin]

Like Mookie?

 

THAT was my biggest hope.

 

My fear was he would give it to someone like Pedroia or Papi who was clearly not going to last that long...

[mvp 78]

THAT was my biggest hope.

 

My fear was he would give it to someone like Pedroia or Papi who was clearly not going to last that long...

 

That doesn't make much sense. Pedroia was already locked up and Papi was nearly done. All the best players were young (Xander, Mookie).

[notin]

In low leverage situations, his WHIP, ERA, FIP all spike to second highest of his career, but you think he could still close? All his pitches had dropped over 2 MPH since his 2013 season. O Swing % was lowest in 7 years. Z swing % was highest of his career. He was no longer fooling anyone. Even with pinpoint command, that's much more hittable.

 

You think he would not have been able to?

 

He still had a WHIP extremely comparable to many other save leaders that year, including Greg Holland, Cory Knebel and the MLB saves leader Alex Colome.

 

And Fernando Rodney! Think Rodney was more capable of closing than Uehara?

[notin]

That doesn't make much sense. Pedroia was already locked up and Papi was nearly done. All the best players were young (Xander, Mookie).

 

Well, then if the only/best option was he could have extended Mookie, that's exactly why I hated a lot of moves DD made - they made any extension of Mookie much less likely...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, then if the only/best option was he could have extended Mookie, that's exactly why I hated a lot of moves DD made - they made any extension of Mookie much less likely...

 

Maybe they did, or maybe they had no impact at all. Mookie wanted his 12/400 no matter what, and it was a monster risk no matter what.

[mvp 78]

You think he would not have been able to?

 

He still had a WHIP extremely comparable to many other save leaders that year, including Greg Holland, Cory Knebel and the MLB saves leader Alex Colome.

 

And Fernando Rodney! Think Rodney was more capable of closing than Uehara?

 

There's more to life than just WHIP, which is why i showed O Swing and Z Swing %'s combined with MPH loss. He just didn't have the same stuff.

[notin]

There's more to life than just WHIP, which is why i showed O Swing and Z Swing %'s combined with MPH loss. He just didn't have the same stuff.

 

Yes and while he was not as effective as in yeas past, he was hardly ineffective.

 

WHIP is a good measure for number of people getting on base, which is the would-be deathnail of a closer. And while Uehar was clearly allowing more hitters to reach base, likely due to a combination of the stats you pointed out, he was still just as effective as many of the league-leading closers in MLB.

 

Sure, he was no longer Chapman/Jansen. And while it would have been better if he still was, the premise that he could not close any more - which was your question - seems like the answer is "Yes, he could"...

[notin]

Maybe they did, or maybe they had no impact at all. Mookie wanted his 12/400 no matter what, and it was a monster risk no matter what.

 

Absolutely.

 

It does come down to what you think is the greater risk - 12 years and $400 mill for a 25/26 yo outfielder on a HOF track, of 7 years $217 mill for an excellent starting pitcher heading into his declining years (with degree of decline unknown).

[mvp 78]

Yes and while he was not as effective as in yeas past, he was hardly ineffective.

 

WHIP is a good measure for number of people getting on base, which is the would-be deathnail of a closer. And while Uehar was clearly allowing more hitters to reach base, likely due to a combination of the stats you pointed out, he was still just as effective as many of the league-leading closers in MLB.

 

Sure, he was no longer Chapman/Jansen. And while it would have been better if he still was, the premise that he could not close any more - which was your question - seems like the answer is "Yes, he could"...

 

He could close out games sometimes. It's why he only pitched 40 innings. He just was no longer durable. They had Robbie f-r-e-a-k-i-n Ross get 6 saves in 2015. Jean Hatchimachi had 4 saves. Uehara was the closer because of a lack of other options. I bet the Sox would have rather had Uehara in a different role if they could have (which is why the traded for Kimbrel after the fact).

[Bellhorn04]

Absolutely.

 

It does come down to what you think is the greater risk - 12 years and $400 mill for a 25/26 yo outfielder on a HOF track, of 7 years $217 mill for an excellent starting pitcher heading into his declining years (with degree of decline unknown).

 

And you would need some actuarial algorithms to calculate those relative risks.

 

But I do know one indisputable fact - any player's career can end on a single play.

[Kimmi]

Unless you're the Rays.

 

Ha. Good point.

[Kimmi]

There was an anthropologist that my father knew at Harvard University who wrote a book, Up From the Apes His last name was Hooten. He sired two children. The son they named Newton and the daughter Ima. My father was born in 1896 and was one of the knot hole gang and had lots of quirky stories. I used to think it something when my dad could throw a baseball well at 75. Now I'm very close to 80 and have a brother 85 and we both still play competitive softball and have good arms. Must run in the family. Enough nostalgia, but not much will get going until after the WS.

 

Good story Oldtimer. It's great that this anthropologist had a sense of humor, but you wonder what those kids went through their entire lives. LOL

 

Also, keep on playing! That's awesome!

[Kimmi]

So they needed to trade for pitchers like Kimbrel then?

 

That is a hard no.

[oldtimer]

I have watched a lot of playoff baseball and hate to bring back a sore subject but there have been a lot of questionable to downright wrong ball and strke calls, some of which have a definite impact on the games. Some of the pitchers seem to have the idea to never throw a pitch in the strike zone and batters often get themselves out swinging at these. Are they concerned that pitches 2 inches off the plate will be called strikes? I am still for technology assisted ball and strike calling butt through the umpire behind the plate. Maybe this will be brought up during the next player/owner agreement.

[Nick]

The Red Sox have only four players -- Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi -- locked into salaries through 2022, with the rest of the roster either arbitration-eligible or set to hit free agency by that point. Some of the club’s young players are candidates for extensions, even in these uncertain financial times.

 

Music to my ears....Bloom has blank canvass to paint his masterpiece...

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox have only four players -- Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi -- locked into salaries through 2022, with the rest of the roster either arbitration-eligible or set to hit free agency by that point. Some of the club’s young players are candidates for extensions, even in these uncertain financial times.

 

Music to my ears....Bloom has blank canvass to paint his masterpiece...

 

The $30M to Sale every year will be tough to swallow if he doesn't come back to form.

[Bellhorn04]

The $30M to Sale every year will be tough to swallow if he doesn't come back to form.

 

No question.

 

It'll be 4 years, at 25.6 million present value/AAV.

[Nick]

The $30M to Sale every year will be tough to swallow if he doesn't come back to form.

 

very true.....rest of article spoke of Bloom's history with Rays to buy out couple of free agent years during player's pre-arbitration period and not wait to extend during arbitration years.

[Nick]

Pedey's $13.75 after 2021 season ought to buy us a decent starter.

[Bellhorn04]

Pedey's $13.75 after 2021 season ought to buy us a decent starter.

 

Yep. And Price's $16 departs after 2022.

[mvp 78]

Pedey's $13.75 after 2021 season ought to buy us a decent starter.

 

I've heard that if Pedey retires now, he still gets paid, but doesn't go against the lux cap? Can anyone else confirm?

[Bellhorn04]

I've heard that if Pedey retires now, he still gets paid, but doesn't go against the lux cap? Can anyone else confirm?

 

I'd be surprised if it's true.

[Nick]

Core players

 

Devers, Verdugo, Xander, Vazquez... Vaz can be extended at some point or could be a valuable trade chip.

 

Would love to see Dalbec join this bunch....

 

I just don't see the playoff chase in 2021. I don't see Sale returning until All Star break. Not enough starting pitching depth.

 

I rather Bloom continue to make incremental improvements via trades and small FA deals.

 

But the big elephant in the room is the news that Sox had the biggest drop off in TV viewership in 2020. Not sure Henry's reaction to that. I hope he doesn't overreact. We'll see.

Edited October 9, 2020 by Nick

[notin]

Core players

 

Devers, Verdugo, Xander, Vazquez... Vaz can be extended at some point or could be a valuable trade chip.

 

Would love to see Dalbec join this bunch....

 

I just don't see the playoff chase in 2021. I don't see Sale returning until All Star break. Not enough starting pitching depth.

 

I rather Bloom continue to make incremental improvements via trades and small FA deals.

 

But the big elephant in the room is the news that Sox had the biggest drop off in TV viewership in 2020. Not sure Henry's reaction to that. I hope he doesn't overreact. We'll see.

 

If he assumes it is because the final product was unwatchable, which it was, the reaction could be a positive one for us fans...

[mvp 78]

How it worked with David Wright:

 

For Wright to receive the rest of his contract the Mets could simply release him. But a possible scenario is to continue what has basically happened the last two-plus years, for Wright to stay on the Mets’ 40-man roster while unavailable. It’s not so restrictive during the season, when Wright can be stashed on the 60-day disabled list which frees his 40-man spot for someone else. But during the offseason, when building the roster, there is no DL, so the Mets would effectively be limited to 39 spots.

 

Keeping a disabled Wright on the 40-man roster would also allow the Mets to receive insurance to cover the bulk of Wright’s salary, which they have done the past two years. Insurance was on the hook for 75 percent of Wright’s $20 million salary in 2017, and mostly the same in 2018, save for the pro-rated portion of Wright’s salary the Mets will pay for the six days he is active, roughly $642,000.

 

Under this scenario the Mets would only pay $6.75 million of the $27 million remaining due Wright, with insurance picking up the remaining $21.25 million. The parties could agree to a buyout arrangement of some sort which could alleviate the Mets’ roster crunch, presumably at some financial cost.

 

Prince Fielder was in this position after his career ended in July 2016 with a neck injury. He remained on the Rangers’ 40-man roster until October 2017, with insurance paying a portion of his salary. With three more years left on Fielder’s contract, the Rangers reached a settlement with the insurance company and released Fielder.

 

Not all major league contracts are insured, for various reasons. The Red Sox did not insure their five-year, $95 million contract with Pablo Sandoval, who was a colossal bust in Boston and was injured for all but three games in 2016.

 

“The fact is that it’s a case-by-case basis, and we have insurance on some players, not all players,” Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said on WEEI in 2016. “Collecting on an insurance is not the easiest thing and then you have a debate on how much insurance and when do you collect? We do it on a case-by-case basis, and we did not do it for Pablo.”

 

I guess it just depends on if the Sox had insurance on Pedroia? My guess is they just don't do that since they are so CHEAP!

[Nick]

Other issue in the horizon is that current CBA ends after 2021 season. I thought owners got the better end of the stick last time around. But this COVID thing will be used against the players due to significant financial losses suffered by entire baseball. Sure the players suffered too but the owners will take care of themselves first.

 

Not sure where the luxury tax threashhold is headed. If you had asked me last year I would have said jumping up to $220-$225M range but now I'm not sure. Obviously as a Sox fan, I want that number to be as high as possible. In essence it becomes our de facto player budget. Any thoughts?

Edited October 9, 2020 by Nick