A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Has to be a good limerick in there somewhere.

 

There once was a player named Dalbec

Who loved to have him some Malbec

It became a crutch

As he drank way to much

And got lost on his way to Quebec

[jacksonianmarch]

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?).

 

Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot?

 

What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it?

 

(I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

 

I don’t think so. The most important thing to consider right now is what you have.

 

In the rotation, the only “healthy” starters are Houck and Eovaldi. Eovaldi can be counted on for one or two long DL stints and when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible. Up until September, Houck was touted as a future reliever, which still may be accurate. ERod had a heart condition from covid 19. After the Florida basketball player nearly died on court after having covid over the summer, I wonder how much tighter they’re gonna be with him. Also, you have to wonder how much he may have deconditioned. This isn’t a guy with an arm injury who could still run, lift weights, do core, etc. He wasn’t even allowed to walk long distances. He’s a crap shoot who, IMO, is likely to start the year in extended spring to get his stamina up. Then you have Sale who is coming off March TJS and likely isn’t an option til the ASB. Adding Odorizzi as your only “healthy” addition this offseason doesn’t lend much hope to your chances in a pretty loaded ALE.

 

On top of that, your pen stinks. Barnes is a setup guy at best. DHern is promising. The rest stink to high heaven. The best way to address the pen is to ensure you have one top reliever and a farm full of promising arms who can move there. You don’t have either.

 

Kike Hernandez is more a Brock Holt than a solution at 2b. It doesn’t address your lack of a CF. I think you’ll need a lock down ace (Bauer), 2 more rotation additions, a closer, a setup man, a CFer, Kike and a 2b to be in contention. The roster is too light on talent to survive what will be a rough division with 3 returning playoff teams from 2020

[moonslav59]

I don’t think so. The most important thing to consider right now is what you have.

 

In the rotation, the only “healthy” starters are Houck and Eovaldi. Eovaldi can be counted on for one or two long DL stints and when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible. Up until September, Houck was touted as a future reliever, which still may be accurate. ERod had a heart condition from covid 19. After the Florida basketball player nearly died on court after having covid over the summer, I wonder how much tighter they’re gonna be with him. Also, you have to wonder how much he may have deconditioned. This isn’t a guy with an arm injury who could still run, lift weights, do core, etc. He wasn’t even allowed to walk long distances. He’s a crap shoot who, IMO, is likely to start the year in extended spring to get his stamina up. Then you have Sale who is coming off March TJS and likely isn’t an option til the ASB. Adding Odorizzi as your only “healthy” addition this offseason doesn’t lend much hope to your chances in a pretty loaded ALE.

 

On top of that, your pen stinks. Barnes is a setup guy at best. DHern is promising. The rest stink to high heaven. The best way to address the pen is to ensure you have one top reliever and a farm full of promising arms who can move there. You don’t have either.

 

Kike Hernandez is more a Brock Holt than a solution at 2b. It doesn’t address your lack of a CF. I think you’ll need a lock down ace (Bauer), 2 more rotation additions, a closer, a setup man, a CFer, Kike and a 2b to be in contention. The roster is too light on talent to survive what will be a rough division with 3 returning playoff teams from 2020

 

Um, my point was we'd acquire a closer like Hand. (We may also add a minor pen piece, but I only mentioned major additions.)

 

Kike Hernandez is a capable 2Bman and CF'er, so he could possibly upgrade both positions. While he has a minus UZR/150 at 2B, he's +18 DRS and plus in both metrics in CF. A career .738 OPS for a 2Bman is better than the norm for 2B, since he started playing in 2014 and pretty close to the league average for CF'ers, too. He may not be a plus, but he's about as close to average as one can be.

 

The question marks you raise about the Sox rotation, after adding Ordorrizi & Kluber can be equally raised with almost every other AL rotation, including your Yankees.

Edited January 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

jacko continuing to undersell the Sox offense.

[moonslav59]

jacko continuing to undersell the Sox offense.

 

And our pitching, too.

 

Severino is returning from TJS and all is bright.

 

Sale is written off.

 

5 game sample sizes for Garcia- bright. Houck- dark.

 

Eovaldi? A physical wreck. Montgomery? A shining example of an iron man.

 

No doubt, Odorrizi is no Cole, but Kluber could be, and Odorrizi could be better than the Yankee 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Our pen is certainly worse than the Yanks' pen, even if we added the Brad Hands, but I wasn't projecting even a WS appearance.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Um, my point was we'd acquire a closer like Hand. (We may also add a minor pen piece, but I only mentioned major additions.)

 

The question marks you raise about the Sox rotation, after adding Ordorrizi & Kluber can be equally raised with almost every other AL rotation, including your Yankees.

 

Being realistic and not pessimistic about contending: it won't be enough to add two starting pitchers coming off injuries like Kluber and Odorizzi to a rotation counting on a top two coming off injuries or illness -- Eovaldi and ERod -- and hoping for the continued development of Pivetta and Houck. Sale's contributions, even if he's great again by next summer, will be minimal.

 

Even if we add Kluber and Odorizzi, that's not one single starting pitcher who took a regular turn last year... for the entire 60-game season. Could they all be healthy and good at the same time? It could happen, but I wouldn't bet those extra cans of beans we're storing in the basement for the next quarantine on it.

 

The other starter the Sox are aggressively seriously pursuing -- Sugano -- was a proven innings eater in his league, but he'd just be another question mark as to whether he can even consistently get MLB hitters out.

[mvp 78]

And our pitching, too.

 

Severino is returning from TJS and all is bright.

 

Sale is written off.

 

5 game sample sizes for Garcia- bright. Houck- dark.

 

Eovaldi? A physical wreck. Montgomery? A shining example of an iron man.

 

No doubt, Odorrizi is no Cole, but Kluber could be, and Odorrizi could be better than the Yankee 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Our pen is certainly worse than the Yanks' pen, even if we added the Brad Hands, but I wasn't projecting even a WS appearance.

 

And competing for the WC is much different than competing for the WS. Many flawed teams make the playoffs. Rays will fall back. Jays are still young and unproven. It wouldn't be a complete shock if this team were in the thick of things at the end.

[notin]

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?).

 

Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot?

 

What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it?

 

(I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

 

FAvored? Probably not.

 

But that doesn't mean anything.

 

It is pretty unlikely, but if the Sox signed Kluber, Odorizzi, and 2 good RPs like Hand, Bradley, Kela, or maybe Colome, they would be a very improved team. That still leaves 2B and CF to fill. 2B has numerous good candidates (Wong, C Hernandez, E Hernandez, Schoop, Villar, La Stella, and Semien) even if you cassume the Sox will avoid DJ LeMahieu.. CF not so much, assuming Springer is off limits like DJM, as there is JBJ, Pillar, and maybe DeShields, all followed a bunch of good glove/no bat options like Marisnick, Almora, Dyson, Hamilton who all make JBJ, Pillar and DeShields look like good hitters. If budget allows, a corner OF like Puig would be more exciting, but I do not expect Bloom to sign THAT many quality players. Most likely, expect Bradley, Pillar, or DeShields.

 

Soxprospects.com (Motto: Less Accurate than a Magic 8 Ball!) seems to think the Sox will acquire 2 SPs, 1 RP, a 2B, a CF, and a LHH bench bat. I would hope they get one more RP on top of all that. (They also have Chavis in AAA.) But yes, with the right additions, and minimal health issues, this team could absolutely compete for a playoff spot...

[notin]

I don’t think so. The most important thing to consider right now is what you have.

 

In the rotation, the only “healthy” starters are Houck and Eovaldi. Eovaldi can be counted on for one or two long DL stints and when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible. Up until September, Houck was touted as a future reliever, which still may be accurate. ERod had a heart condition from covid 19. After the Florida basketball player nearly died on court after having covid over the summer, I wonder how much tighter they’re gonna be with him. Also, you have to wonder how much he may have deconditioned. This isn’t a guy with an arm injury who could still run, lift weights, do core, etc. He wasn’t even allowed to walk long distances. He’s a crap shoot who, IMO, is likely to start the year in extended spring to get his stamina up. Then you have Sale who is coming off March TJS and likely isn’t an option til the ASB. Adding Odorizzi as your only “healthy” addition this offseason doesn’t lend much hope to your chances in a pretty loaded ALE.

 

On top of that, your pen stinks. Barnes is a setup guy at best. DHern is promising. The rest stink to high heaven. The best way to address the pen is to ensure you have one top reliever and a farm full of promising arms who can move there. You don’t have either.

 

Kike Hernandez is more a Brock Holt than a solution at 2b. It doesn’t address your lack of a CF. I think you’ll need a lock down ace (Bauer), 2 more rotation additions, a closer, a setup man, a CFer, Kike and a 2b to be in contention. The roster is too light on talent to survive what will be a rough division with 3 returning playoff teams from 2020

 

How come you prop up the Yankee rotation as ready to go despite their equally obvious health concerns and question marks?

 

Jordan Montogomery makes Nathan Eovaldi look like Rick Porcello.

 

Domingo German has not pitched since 9/2019. And not because he has been injured, but because he is an idiot. That's worse, because injuries can heal.

 

Deivi Garcia's start this past year was roughly the same as Houck's, and despite his better pedigree, an equal amount of questions linger. Roster Resource has Michael King, a pitcher who has never dominated in the minors let alone MLB, in the current opening day rotation.

 

So Gerrit Cole and a bunch of question marks....

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects.com (Motto: Less Accurate than a Magic 8 Ball!)

 

The real Crapshoot Theory.

[moonslav59]

FAvored? Probably not.

 

But that doesn't mean anything.

 

It is pretty unlikely, but if the Sox signed Kluber, Odorizzi, and 2 good RPs like Hand, Bradley, Kela, or maybe Colome, they would be a very improved team. That still leaves 2B and CF to fill. 2B has numerous good candidates (Wong, C Hernandez, E Hernandez, Schoop, Villar, La Stella, and Semien) even if you cassume the Sox will avoid DJ LeMahieu.. CF not so much, assuming Springer is off limits like DJM, as there is JBJ, Pillar, and maybe DeShields, all followed a bunch of good glove/no bat options like Marisnick, Almora, Dyson, Hamilton who all make JBJ, Pillar and DeShields look like good hitters. If budget allows, a corner OF like Puig would be more exciting, but I do not expect Bloom to sign THAT many quality players. Most likely, expect Bradley, Pillar, or DeShields.

 

Soxprospects.com (Motto: Less Accurate than a Magic 8 Ball!) seems to think the Sox will acquire 2 SPs, 1 RP, a 2B, a CF, and a LHH bench bat. I would hope they get one more RP on top of all that. (They also have Chavis in AAA.) But yes, with the right additions, and minimal health issues, this team could absolutely compete for a playoff spot...

 

My point included adding Hernandez and a closer like Hand, along with Odorizzi & Kluber. It's unclear what other teams will add, and surely the Yanks and jays will be making some sort of a major addition or two.

 

Right now, fangraphs has our estimated 2021 team WAR as 9th best in the AL. My thoughts are that we would climb to 4 or 5 after these additions.

 

40.6 Yankees

38.9 Astros (don't seem inclined to add any big pieces)

38.3 Twins (may not add much more)

38.1 Angels (may not add much more)

37.7 White Sox (may not add much more)

37.2 Guardians (may not add much more)

36.7 Athletics (may not add much more)

35.1 Blue Jays (seem interested in adding key pieces)

34.3 Red Sox (May add more than anyone else on this list.)

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi can be counted on for one or two long DL stints and when he’s on the mound, his results will vary from terrible to good with the body of work trending towards terrible.

 

No bias there!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we could use a new thread on the crapshoot principle.

 

I'll start:

 

108 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two position players at 6 WAR; 11 of those teams won the World Series. So 10% of the time a team with at least two superstar performers wins it all. Or 90% of the time they don't...

 

17 teams had three position players at 6 WAR; only 2 won a ring -- 1993 Toronto and 1973 Oakland -- around 12%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality stars lose their last game 88% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 players of 6+ WAR: '18 Boston, '17 Houston, '13 Boston, '92 Toronto, '84 Detroit, '83 Baltimore, '76/'75 Cincinnati, '71 Pittsburgh.

[notin]

My point included adding Hernandez and a closer like Hand, along with Odorizzi & Kluber. It's unclear what other teams will add, and surely the Yanks and jays will be making some sort of a major addition or two.

 

Right now, fangraphs has our estimated 2021 team WAR as 9th best in the AL. My thoughts are that we would climb to 4 or 5 after these additions.

 

40.6 Yankees

38.9 Astros (don't seem inclined to add any big pieces)

38.3 Twins (may not add much more)

38.1 Angels (may not add much more)

37.7 White Sox (may not add much more)

37.2 Guardians (may not add much more)

36.7 Athletics (may not add much more)

35.1 Blue Jays (seem interested in adding key pieces)

34.3 Red Sox (May add more than anyone else on this list.)

 

And if the Sox can add two SP's, Houck is not likely to even be in the opening day rotation.

 

So if Soxprpsects.com is right, and the Sox add 2 SPs (Kluber and Odorizzi) and only 1 RP (Colome, who is the only name they are connected to to date?), and a 2B (C Hernandez?), a CF (tough call, since none of them ever played for Tampa), and a LHH bench bat (sticking with Brad Miller here) then yes, the Sox could certanly be competitive.

 

A bullpen with Colome(?), Barnes, Brasier, Hernandez, Houck, Taylor, Andreise, Whitlock and Valdez is actually not awful.

 

Especially since you absolutely know that Bloom is going to sign Ryne Stanek at some point. Might even get him on a MiLB deal, since he has been so ineffective since joining Miami. For all of 31 IP....

[Bellhorn04]

I'll start:

 

108 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two position players at 6 WAR; 11 of those teams won the World Series. So 10% of the time a team with at least two superstar performers wins it all. Or 90% of the time they don't...

 

17 teams had three position players at 6 WAR; only 2 won a ring -- 1993 Toronto and 1973 Oakland -- around 12%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality stars lose their last game 88% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 players of 6+ WAR: '18 Boston, '17 Houston, '13 Boston, '92 Toronto, '84 Detroit, '83 Baltimore, '76/'75 Cincinnati, '71 Pittsburgh.

 

Wow, you've already been working on this.

[notin]

I'll start:

 

108 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two position players at 6 WAR; 11 of those teams won the World Series. So 10% of the time a team with at least two superstar performers wins it all. Or 90% of the time they don't...

 

17 teams had three position players at 6 WAR; only 2 won a ring -- 1993 Toronto and 1973 Oakland -- around 12%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality stars lose their last game 88% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 players of 6+ WAR: '18 Boston, '17 Houston, '13 Boston, '92 Toronto, '84 Detroit, '83 Baltimore, '76/'75 Cincinnati, '71 Pittsburgh.

 

How many instances of there being multiple qualifying teams in the same season?

[moonslav59]

How come you prop up the Yankee rotation as ready to go despite their equally obvious health concerns and question marks?

 

Jordan Montogomery makes Nathan Eovaldi look like Rick Porcello.

 

Domingo German has not pitched since 9/2019. And not because he has been injured, but because he is an idiot. That's worse, because injuries can heal.

 

Deivi Garcia's start this past year was roughly the same as Houck's, and despite his better pedigree, an equal amount of questions linger. Roster Resource has Michael King, a pitcher who has never dominated in the minors let alone MLB, in the current opening day rotation.

 

So Gerrit Cole and a bunch of question marks....

 

Yankee Pitcher WAR 2019-2020:

 

1. 4.1 Tanaka (#1 in IP at 230) GONE

2. 3.8 Paxton (#3 in IP at 171) GONE

3. 2.4 Chapman

4. 2.0 German

5. 1.9 JA Happ (#2 in IP at 211) GONE

6. 1.8 Green (7th in IP at 95)

7. 1.5 Ottavino (8th in IP at 85)

8. 1.4 G Cole (10th in IP at 73)

9. 1.4 Britton (9th in IP at 80)

10. 1.2 Kahnle (14th in IP at 62) GONE

11. 1.0 Montgomery (16th in IP)

12. 0.8 Garcia (18th in IP)

 

(Note: CC Sabathia is 5th in IP from 2019-2020)

 

They've lost their 3 top IP pitchers who are also 3 of in their top 5 pitching WAR!

[notin]

Well, they did add some guy who slots into their top IP range since 2019. I forget his name. Gary Cole? Somethng like that. It's like the guy who voiced Harvey Birdman and played the boss in "Office Space"?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How many instances of there being multiple qualifying teams in the same season?

 

There were more clubs that made the playoffs or even won the pennant, but I just looked for world champs, since that's the ultimate goal.

 

Next, I'll scan for pitchers, since a lot of us agree having a top dog on the mound in the postseason is key... although, having a "hot" dog is more important in October than a guy who maybe burned out having a great season.

[moonslav59]

No bias there!

 

The guy has an ERA+ of 102 since 2018. If that is "terrible," I'm not sure what is decent.

 

 

125 pitchers have more IP'd than Eovaldi since 2018. That's about 4 per team.

 

He was 126th in IP but 98th in WAR (4th starter numbers) and 71st in ERA- (3rd starter numbers).

 

He had a 94 ERA from 2013-2016, which may be bad, but even that is not really "terrible."

 

From 2013-2016, only 56 pitchers had more IP'd than Eovaldi's 858, and his WAR placed him 38th at 8.7. He placed 61st out of 73 pitchers with 550+ IP. (He placed 147th out of 191 SP'ers with 200+ IP with a 111 ERA-.)

[moonslav59]

I'll start:

 

108 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two position players at 6 WAR; 11 of those teams won the World Series. So 10% of the time a team with at least two superstar performers wins it all. Or 90% of the time they don't...

 

17 teams had three position players at 6 WAR; only 2 won a ring -- 1993 Toronto and 1973 Oakland -- around 12%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality stars lose their last game 88% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 players of 6+ WAR: '18 Boston, '17 Houston, '13 Boston, '92 Toronto, '84 Detroit, '83 Baltimore, '76/'75 Cincinnati, '71 Pittsburgh.

 

Good research, but why is the number of superstars the aspect you are addressing.

 

How about looking at team WAR each year?

 

How many bottom tier team WAR playoff teams made the WS? How many won it?

[moonslav59]

I'll start:

 

108 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two position players at 6 WAR; 11 of those teams won the World Series. So 10% of the time a team with at least two superstar performers wins it all. Or 90% of the time they don't...

 

17 teams had three position players at 6 WAR; only 2 won a ring -- 1993 Toronto and 1973 Oakland -- around 12%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality stars lose their last game 88% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 players of 6+ WAR: '18 Boston, '17 Houston, '13 Boston, '92 Toronto, '84 Detroit, '83 Baltimore, '76/'75 Cincinnati, '71 Pittsburgh.

 

How about seasonal winning % rank going into the playoffs?

 

(Wild Card era began in 2012. Wild Card WS winners in RED)

 

2020 LAD 1st

2019 WSH 9th out of 10

2018 BOS 1st

2017 HOU 3rd

2016 CCubs 1st

2015 KCR 4th

2014 SFG 10th out of 10

2013 BOS 1st

2012 SFG 5th out of 10(Start of Wild Card ERA

 

From 2012-2020, I would not say it's a crap shoot. In these 9 years, the best record team won 4 times. (10 teams make playoffs)

 

The 1-3 ranked team won 5 of 9 times.

6 of the 1-4 ranked teams won.

7 of the top 5 ranked teams won the WS. THAT'S 78% of the time.

 

Also, the #1 or #2 record in the league team lost the WS, three times in those 9 years.

 

12 of the 18 teams that made the WS in the last 9 years were top 5 teams (out of 10)- 67%.

 

11 out of 18 were top 4 (61%).

 

8 of 18 were the #1 or #2 record team. That's 44% of the time. If it was totally random, you'd expect about 2 (1.8) teams to make it, not 8.

 

2011 STL 8th of 8

2010 SFG 5th of 8

2009 NYY 1st of 8

2008 PHI 5th of 8

2007 BOS 1st of 8

2006 STL 13th in MLB (8 teams made playoffs) Had best record in 2005.

2005 CWS 2/8

2004 BOS 3/8 WC team

2003 FLA 7/8 WC team

2002 ANA 4/8

2001 AZ 6/8

 

2000 NYY

1999 NYY

1998 NYY

1997 FLA

1996 NYY

1995 ATL

 

It looks like the 10 year period from 2002-2011, the crapshoot principle carried some weight.

 

5 of the top 4 teams won, and 5 of the 5-8 teams won, but 7 of the top 5 teams won the WS. Still- a crap shoot, yes

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

If you cherry-pick the stretch from 2007 to 2020, you've got 6 times in 14 years that the #1 regular season team won the WS.

 

3 times it was us!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good research, but why is the number of superstars the aspect you are addressing.

 

How about looking at team WAR each year?

 

How many bottom tier team WAR playoff teams made the WS? How many won it?

 

There reason I focused on winners with superstars is because that is a huge topic of debate here -- signing or extending great players and how they correlate to trophies and banners. Of course, I'm one of those fans of this entertainment product who values the journey as much as reaching the ultimate destination (I'm selfish and want to enjoy as many journeys as I can while I can).

 

111 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two pitchers at 5 WAR (there were only 45 clubs with two pitchers at 6 WAR); only 6 of those teams won the World Series. So 5% of the time a team with at least two superstar pitchers wins it all. Or 95% of the time they don't...

 

11 teams had three pitchers at 5 WAR; only one won a ring -- 2019 Washington, with Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin -- 9%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality starters lose their last game 91% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 pitchers of 5+ WAR: '16 Cubs, '04 Red Sox, '01 Dbacks, '85 Royals, '69 Mets.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How about seasonal winning % rank going into the playoffs?

 

(Wild Card era began in 2012. Wild Card WS winners in RED)

 

2020 LAD 1st

2019 WSH 9th out of 10

2018 BOS 1st

2017 HOU 3rd

2016 CCubs 1st

2015 KCR 4th

2014 SFG 10th out of 10

2013 BOS 1st

2012 SFG 5th out of 10(Start of Wild Card ERA

 

From 2012-2020, I would not say it's a crap shoot. In these 9 years, the best record team won 4 times. (10 teams make playoffs)

 

The 1-3 ranked team won 5 of 9 times.

6 of the 1-4 ranked teams won.

7 of the top 5 ranked teams won the WS. THAT'S 78% of the time.

 

Also, the #1 or #2 record in the league team lost the WS, three times in those 9 years.

 

12 of the 18 teams that made the WS in the last 9 years were top 5 teams (out of 10)- 67%.

 

11 out of 18 were top 4 (61%).

 

8 of 18 were the #1 or #2 record team. That's 44% of the time. If it was totally random, you'd expect about 2 (1.8) teams to make it, not 8.

 

2011 STL 8th of 8

2010 SFG 5th of 8

2009 NYY 1st of 8

2008 PHI 5th of 8

2007 BOS 1st of 8

2006 STL 13th in MLB (8 teams made playoffs) Had best record in 2005.

2005 CWS 2/8

2004 BOS 3/8 WC team

2003 FLA 7/8 WC team

2002 ANA 4/8

2001 AZ 6/8

 

2000 NYY

1999 NYY

1998 NYY

1997 FLA

1996 NYY

1995 ATL

 

It looks like the 10 year period from 2002-2011, the crapshoot principle carried some weight.

 

5 of the top 4 teams won, and 5 of the 5-8 teams won, but 7 of the top 5 teams won the WS. Still- a crap shoot, yes

 

 

It's interesting that the Nationals were ranked so low by record but were also one of only 11 clubs in 50 years with three star quality starting pitchers of 5+ WAR -- and the only one that won it all.

[moonslav59]

It's interesting that the Nationals were ranked so low by record but were also one of only 11 clubs in 50 years with three star quality starting pitchers of 5+ WAR -- and the only one that won it all.

 

I get your reasoning for selecting that criteria, but I was really addressing the "crapshoot" point.

[notin]

There reason I focused on winners with superstars is because that is a huge topic of debate here -- signing or extending great players and how they correlate to trophies and banners. Of course, I'm one of those fans of this entertainment product who values the journey as much as reaching the ultimate destination (I'm selfish and want to enjoy as many journeys as I can while I can).

 

111 Teams in the Divisional Era (1969-2019) had at least two pitchers at 5 WAR (there were only 45 clubs with two pitchers at 6 WAR); only 6 of those teams won the World Series. So 5% of the time a team with at least two superstar pitchers wins it all. Or 95% of the time they don't...

 

11 teams had three pitchers at 5 WAR; only one won a ring -- 2019 Washington, with Strasburg, Scherzer and Corbin -- 9%. That also means teams lucky enough to have three Top Ten-quality starters lose their last game 91% of the time.

 

1969-2019 World champs with 2 pitchers of 5+ WAR: '16 Cubs, '04 Red Sox, '01 Dbacks, '85 Royals, '69 Mets.

 

While everyone agrees SP is important, one has to wonder exactly how important.

 

In 2002, in a meaningless final game of the season, Tim Wakefield gave up 2 hits in the 6th inning, and both runners scored (one as an inherited runner with Bobby Howery on the mound). Those 2 runs raised Wakefield's seaon ERA from 2.70 to 2.81, pushing him behind Barry Zito (2.75) for 4th place in the AL.

 

Had Wakefield simply come out after 5 innings, the Red Sox would have had the starters who finished first (Pedro Martinez - 2.26), second (Derek Lowe - 2.58) and third (Wakefield - 2.70) in the AL in ERA. They also would have still missed the playoffs, finishing 10.5 game behind the Yankees for the AL East title and 6 games behind the eventual World Series Champion Angels for the Wild Card...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I get your reasoning for selecting that criteria, but I was really addressing the "crapshoot" point.

 

My interpretation here is that some posters imply that great players help teams get to the postseason, but don't make much of a difference once the tournament begins, and thus aren't really worth expensive longterm investments because they don't guarantee titles.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While everyone agrees SP is important, one has to wonder exactly how important.

 

In 2002, in a meaningless final game of the season, Tim Wakefield gave up 2 hits in the 6th inning, and both runners scored (one as an inherited runner with Bobby Howery on the mound). Those 2 runs raised Wakefield's seaon ERA from 2.70 to 2.81, pushing him behind Barry Zito (2.75) for 4th place in the AL.

 

Had Wakefield simply come out after 5 innings, the Red Sox would have had the starters who finished first (Pedro Martinez - 2.26), second (Derek Lowe - 2.58) and third (Wakefield - 2.70) in the AL in ERA. They also would have still missed the playoffs, finishing 10.5 game behind the Yankees for the AL East title and 6 games behind the eventual World Series Champion Angels for the Wild Card...

 

That was the same year DLowe and Pedro were 20-game winners (which doesn't mean so much to a lot of fans these days -- though that they averaged around 7 IP per start should still matter, especially to Sox fans who had to stomach 2020).

 

But the WAR stats for position players and pitchers doesn't show much connection as far as winning rings in such a team sport. A better debate might be what makes for more fun as a fan: watching a team consistently contend for six months of most years or a team that alternates between titles and the cellar.

[jacksonianmarch]

And our pitching, too.

 

Severino is returning from TJS and all is bright.

 

Sale is written off.

 

5 game sample sizes for Garcia- bright. Houck- dark.

 

Eovaldi? A physical wreck. Montgomery? A shining example of an iron man.

 

No doubt, Odorrizi is no Cole, but Kluber could be, and Odorrizi could be better than the Yankee 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Our pen is certainly worse than the Yanks' pen, even if we added the Brad Hands, but I wasn't projecting even a WS appearance.

 

Sale is certainly not written off. But you’re talking about a guy with tons of miles on his tread who had a shoulder injury that sapped his velocity then blew out his elbow. You don’t have a reliable indicator of what he’ll be. Severino had that lat strain, came back hitting 100 in the POs in 2019 and then blew out his elbow. I’m pretty sure he should come back with his velocity intact. But as I’ve said for both, they’re not options til the ASB and likely aren’t going to be at their best til September.

 

As far as the Sox offense, what am I underselling? Sox were 11th in baseball in runs scored per game last year. Now you’re losing Moreland from that equation and JBJ is a FA (he ended up having a good 2020 offensively). They’re a middle of the pack offense