A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Here's a history of our biggest FA signings by winter:

(All 4+ year deals in red)

(All 4+ year extensions in blue)

19-20:

$145M/5 Chris Sale

$120M/6 Bogaerts

$6M/1 Martin Perez

$4.3/1 Kevin Pillar

$3/1 Mitch Moreland

$3/1 Martin Peraza

 

18-19:

$68M/4 Nathon Eovaldi

$13.6M/4 Vazquez

$6.3M/1 Steve Pearce

 

17-18:

$110M/5 JD Martinez

$13M/2 Moreland

$8M/2 E. Nunez

 

16-17:

$5.5M/1 Moreland

 

15-16:

$217M/7 David Price

$13M/1 Buchholz

$13M/2 Chris Young

 

14-15:

$95M/5 Pablo Sandoval

$88M/4 Hanley Ramirez

$83M/4 Porcello

$18M/2 Koji Uehara

$9.5M/1 J Masterson

 

13-14:

$110M/8 Pedroia

$73M/7 Rusney Castillo

$32M/2 Mike Napoli

$13M/1 John Lester

$10.1M/1 S Drew

$9.5M/2 Edward Mujica

$8.3M/1 AJ Pierzynski

 

12-13:

$39M/3 Shane Victorino

$26.5/2 Ryan Dempster

$26M/2 David Ortiz

$10M/2 Jonny Gomes

$9.5M/1 S Drew

$6.2M/1 David Ross

$5M/1 M. Napoli

$4.3M/1 Uehara

 

11-12:

$154M/7 Adrian Gonzalez

$30M/4 Buchholz

$14.6M/1 David Ortiz

$6M/1 Marco Scutaro

$3M/1 Cody Ross

$3.5/2 Nick Punto

 

10-11:

$142/7 Carl Crawford

$12M/2 Bobby Jenks

$3M/1 Dan Wheeler

 

9-10: John Lackey $83M/5, Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, D Mac, A Embree

8-9: Youkilis ($41M/4), Pedey ($41M/6),Lester ($30M/5), John Smoltz, Brad Penny, J Varitek, T Saito, M Kotsay, R Baldelli

7-8: Lowell ($38M/3), Schilling, Jeff Bailey, Mike Timlin, S Atchison, D Mirabelli, B Colon

6-7: JD Drew, Dicea-K Ortiz ($52M/4), Beckett ($30M/3) Julio Lugo, Alex Cora, Mirabelli, J Piniero

5-6: Alez Gonzalez, J Taveraz, Rudy Seanez, Gabe Kapler, C Breslow, Willie Harris, JT Snow

4-5: Edgar Renteria, David Wells, Matt Clement, Varitek, Wade Miller, D McCarty, M Myers, J Halama, Mirabelli

3-4: K Foulke, Frank Castillo, Pokey Reese, Bobby Jones, M Timlin, Ellis Burks, G Kapler

2-3: David Ortiz, Bill Mueller, Ramiro Mendoza, James Lofton, M Timlin, Chad Fox, B Haselman

1-2: Johnny Damon, John Burkett, Rickey Henderson, James Lofton, Damon Bufford, Rey Sanchez, Michael Coleman

0-1: Manny Ramirez, Hideo Nomo, Tim Wakefield, David Cone, Frank Castillo, Pete Schourek

99-0: Jeff Fassero, Gary Gaetti

98-99: Jose Offerman, Mark Portugal, R Cormier, R. Martinez, Pat Rapp

97-98: Eckersley, Brett Saberhagen, Darren Lewis, Keith Mitchell, Brian Shouse, Jim Corsi

 

As you can see, the Sox went 3 or more years without any large & long deals several times over the last 25 years.

 

The 2012-2013 winter is the sort of deals in line with Kimmi's philosophy.

 

For people who think going 2 years in a row with no major signings is a sign that Henry is getting cheap, this list should persuade you otherwise.

 

It is my position that Henry will okay spending large, again, when the time is right. With Bauer & Springer being the only big prizes, this winter, I am all aboard with the idea that the time is not now to spend big.

 

That does not mean I want us to sit on our hands. I think the time, now, is to find several mid-range bargain deals that will give us some key role players for the next few years, as well as a few shorter term deals that will bridge us to some of our rising prospects or to a point where making a big splash signing is warranted and the right guy is available.

 

I don't see "the right guy" available, this winter.

 

 

Big extensions added in BLUE

Edited January 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

You're going off on this deferred money angle like it's a new discovery and teams have not been doing it for decades.

 

No, it's not that. The big deal is that in the last CBA they changed the rules so that present values would actually be calculated and AAV's would be based on present value. I think the first time any of us became aware of it was with Sale's extension.

[Bellhorn04]

This is an old strategy and been used probably hundreds of time. So it is possible the Sox made such an offer and Betts still declined. Or it is possible Dombrowski is a moron and never thought to do so. (But I highly doubt the latter. I'm sure DD has done deferred money deals before, or at the very least prepared them.)

 

I'm not so sure Mookie would have been open to the deferred money thing if negotiations weren't taking place during a pandemic.

[notin]

I'm not so sure Mookie would have been open to the deferred money thing if negotiations weren't taking place during a pandemic.

 

So then it is a bit moot for the Sox to have offered one. Which for all we know, they might have...

[Bellhorn04]

I think the bottom line is that the Dodgers clearly got a tidy pandemic discount.

[moonslav59]

All this stuff is open for debate and there are no simple answers, because every strategy entails its own risks.

 

In 2013, Ben did that mid level free agents thing, right?

 

And it worked brilliantly, for one year.

 

Victorino is a classic example. 3 years/39 million. He was fantastic for one year and useless for two. Good signing or not? I don't complain about it because he helped us get a ring. But if we didn't get the ring it would look pretty bad.

 

I agree. And, if you look at any of those 2013 signings, in isolation, and not counting how they were needed for the 2013 ring, they all looked like bad signings.

 

I like Kimmi's philosophy.It's hard not to like it, but I think I feel like large and long signings are needed more than she does.

 

Her point about Porcello is a good one. I loved that signing, too. All of his contract years were withing prime range. The dollars per year seemed high, but the length was just right.

 

Had we signed Porcello to 5-7 years- OUCH!

[moonslav59]

There is a much simpler way of expressing it:

 

"A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow."

 

Us accountants live by this principle. Always trying to defer tax liabilities and such.

 

True, and if you invest your dollar "today" well, it can be a huge plus.

 

There is something to getting that deferred money, too, especially gto those types of people who blow their money away as soon as they get it.

[Bellhorn04]

Her point about Porcello is a good one. I loved that signing, too. All of his contract years were withing prime range. The dollars per year seemed high, but the length was just right.

 

Folks that only look at ERA or ERA +/- will argue that Porcello only had one season for us, 2016, in which he was a $20 million pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Folks that only look at ERA or ERA +/- will argue that Porcello only had one season for us, 2016, in which he was a $20 million pitcher.

 

One could argue he was a $40M pitcher, that year, and indeed, fangraphs had his value at $40.9M in 2016.

 

Here are the values they assigned to Porcello for those 4 years after his initial $13.8M valued season before the signing at $20M x 4:

 

$40.9M

$16.2M

$19.3M

$14.2M

 

Total: 90.6M for 4 years (22.7M/yr) . Paid $80M for 4 years ($20M/yr).

 

As a comp, here is what Price's numbers were after posting $42.5M & $53.6M seasons before signing with the Sox for $31M x 7:

 

$35.2M

$11.7M

$19.3M

$18.8M

 

Total: $85M for 4 years ($21.3M/yr). He was paid $31M/yr.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue he was a $40M pitcher, that year, and indeed, fangraphs had his value at $40.9M in 2016.

 

Here are the values they assigned to Porcello for those 4 years after his initial $13.8M valued season before the signing at $20M x 4:

 

$40.9M

$16.2M

$19.3M

$14.2M

 

Total: 90.6M for 4 years (22.7M/yr) . Paid $80M for 4 years ($20M/yr).

 

Porcello is one of those guys who almost always has a higher fWAR than bWAR. His advanced numbers always look better than his standard numbers. (That trend continued in 2020.)

 

For his career he has a 4.40 ERA and a 98 ERA+.

 

With the Red Sox, 4.43 ERA and 102 ERA+.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, I'll pose this one to you directly.

 

In 2020 Porcello had an fWAR of 1.7 in a 60 game season, equivalent to a 4.6 fWAR in a full season.

 

So tell me again why you say he's no good any more?

[moonslav59]

Porcello is one of those guys who almost always has a higher fWAR than bWAR. His advanced numbers always look better than his standard numbers. (That trend continued in 2020.)

 

For his career he has a 4.40 ERA and a 98 ERA+.

 

With the Red Sox, 4.43 ERA and 102 ERA+.

 

Here are the bWARs of Porcello & Price's 4 years under their long term deals:

 

Porcello paid $80M/4 and Price paid $124M/4...

 

8.7 Porcello

10.4 Price

 

fWAR:

11.3 Porcello

10.6 Price

 

Average the two:

10.0 Porcello

10.5 Price

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

moon, I'll pose this one to you directly.

 

In 2020 Porcello had an fWAR of 1.7 in a 60 game season, equivalent to a 4.6 fWAR in a full season.

 

So tell me again why you say he's no good any more?

 

I wouldn't have wanted Porcello's contract to be 7 years long. The last 3 years would be post-prime.

 

Will Porcello get $20M a year, this winter?

 

No.

 

I don't put much stock into 60 game sample sizes. I barely put much into selected 162 game sample sizes.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't have wanted Porcello's contract to be 7 years long. The last 3 years would be post-prime.

 

Will Porcello get $20M a year, this winter?

 

No.

 

I don't put much stock into 60 game sample sizes. I barely put much into selected 162 game sample sizes.

 

1) In 2020, he made $10 million. I highly doubt he'll be looking for much more than that-probably less, I'm guessing.

2) As you posted above, even in 2019, he was worth $14.2 million, and that was a 4-year low.

 

So why are you so down on him?

[Bellhorn04]

Another one for ya, moon, along the same lines.

 

Ryan Dempster. You've often said how much you hated that signing.

 

But if you look at Dempster's fWAR's for the preceding years with the Cubs, it was not a bad signing at all.

 

Is it fair to say you don't really buy into the FanGraphs valuations?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for the chart, Moon. Maybe the big extensions in 18/19 that kept Sale and Bogaerts from becoming free agents should be included, since the earlier Ortiz extensions were listed. I guess then other biggies like Pedroia's, AGon, and Pedro's first, too.

 

One thing for sure: the top numbers on the red contracts for the most part were massive overpays or abject failures. Price at 217 is the real sore thumb (despite three good starts in Oct '18), then in order come Crawford 142, JD 100, Pablo 95, Hanley 88, Eovaldi 68... though JD -- two great seasons, one bad -- and Incomplete Nate could still be good earners.

 

Nevertheless, I agree with posters who state that signing top talent will always require longer contracts. We're not going to have a shot at a guy like Juan Soto in five years if we offer half as many years as New York or LA (but maybe the glut of star free agent shortstops next winter will change parameters).

 

I also fully expect Mookie will be worth his market value as a fan favorite and productive Dodger for the next six seasons, whether LA ever wins another ring.

[harmony]

I wouldn't have wanted Porcello's contract to be 7 years long. The last 3 years would be post-prime.

 

Will Porcello get $20M a year, this winter?

 

No.

 

I don't put much stock into 60 game sample sizes. I barely put much into selected 162 game sample sizes.

We now have the luxury of combining a 162-game season and a 60-game season for a 222-game sample.

 

Over the past two seasons Rick Porcello has posted 3.5 fWAR in 44 starts, which prorates in 32 starts to 2.5 fWAR, which this year was valued at about $20 million.

 

Which is not to say Porcello will land a $20 million AAV this offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

We now have the luxury of combining a 162-game season and a 60-game season for a 222-game sample.

 

Over the past two seasons Rick Porcello has posted 3.5 fWAR in 44 starts, which prorates in 32 starts to 2.5 fWAR, which this year was valued at about $20 million.

 

Which is not to say Porcello will land a $20 million AAV this offseason.

 

Exactly. If you believe in FanGraphs methodology for pitchers, getting Porcello for $10 million or less should be a solid value.

[notin]

Exactly. If you believe in FanGraphs methodology for pitchers, getting Porcello for $10 million or less should be a solid value.

 

And I think that is a fair statement, although I bet he winds up a bigger bargain than even that...

[moonslav59]

1) In 2020, he made $10 million. I highly doubt he'll be looking for much more than that-probably less, I'm guessing.

2) As you posted above, even in 2019, he was worth $14.2 million, and that was a 4-year low.

 

So why are you so down on him?

 

He's post prime.

 

Just because I'd prefer we signed him to $80M/4 rather than $120M0r 125M/7 does not mean I have something against him.

[moonslav59]

Another one for ya, moon, along the same lines.

 

Ryan Dempster. You've often said how much you hated that signing.

 

But if you look at Dempster's fWAR's for the preceding years with the Cubs, it was not a bad signing at all.

 

Is it fair to say you don't really buy into the FanGraphs valuations?

 

Yes, I hated the signing. My philosophy is that the best way to build a winning rotation is by rebuilding from the top (#1 or #2 pitchers not #4 and #5's).

 

That does not mean some signings of 4 and 5 starters don't ever work out.

 

We were lucky he retired. I don't recall anyone thinking they wish he didn't.

 

Also, I'm often wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I hated the signing. My philosophy is that the best way to build a winning rotation is by rebuilding from the top (#1 or #2 pitchers not #4 and #5's).

 

That does not mean some signings of 4 and 5 starters don't ever work out.

 

From 2008 to 2012, Dempster's fWAR was never lower than 2.6.

 

How did that make him project as a 4-5 starter?

 

C'mon, go ahead and admit it: you think the FanGraphs values are bunk.

[moonslav59]

We now have the luxury of combining a 162-game season and a 60-game season for a 222-game sample.

 

Over the past two seasons Rick Porcello has posted 3.5 fWAR in 44 starts, which prorates in 32 starts to 2.5 fWAR, which this year was valued at about $20 million.

 

Which is not to say Porcello will land a $20 million AAV this offseason.

 

Your combination of seasons 19 & 20 includes the 2019 season in prime. It does nothing for or against my point.

[Bellhorn04]

Your combination of seasons 19 & 20 includes the 2019 season in prime. It does nothing for or against my point.

 

Post-prime = gradual regression, not instant death.

[moonslav59]

From 2008 to 2012, Dempster's fWAR was never lower than 2.6.

 

How did that make him project as a 4-5 starter?

 

C'mon, go ahead and admit it: you think the FanGraphs values are bunk.

 

Okay, he was a 3 starter.

 

Look, he was post prime. Expecting him to have a WAR of 2.6, because he had done it from 2008 to 2012.

 

The guy was 36 years old.

 

Two years at $13M each was a lot of cash for a player way past prime who only had a bWAR, yes "B" WAR, of over 2.2 four times from 2001 to 2012 (12 years!).

 

He did okay for us in 2013, but it's not the type of signing I like.

[moonslav59]

Post-prime = gradual regression, not instant death.

 

Yes, and he proved he was barely worth $20M per year in prime, and most of that was fueled by one monster year.

 

Would you have rather signed him for $125M/7 or $80M/4?

[moonslav59]

From 2008 to 2012, Dempster's fWAR was never lower than 2.6.

 

How did that make him project as a 4-5 starter?

 

C'mon, go ahead and admit it: you think the FanGraphs values are bunk.

 

Are you for signing Jon Lester to $27M/2 (no adjustment made for inflation due to the COVID affect)?

 

He's the same age Dempster was, when we signed him, and he has had many more seasons over a 2.2 bWAR than Dempster had (9 to 5).

[harmony]

Your combination of seasons 19 & 20 includes the 2019 season in prime. It does nothing for or against my point.

On the topic of post-prime, check out these dates of birth:

 

12/27/88 - Rick Porcello

3/30/89 -- Chris Sale

2/13/90 -- Nathan Eovaldi

8/28/89 -- Matt Andriese

4/4/91 -- Martin Perez

[dgalehouse]

For those who wonder why the old school fans question the value of things like fWAR ; In 2020 , Rick Porcello had a record of 1 - 7 , with an ERA of 5.64 . The Mets have little to no interest in bringing him back.

[moonslav59]

On the topic of post-prime, check out these dates of birth:

 

12/27/88 - Rick Porcello

3/30/89 -- Chris Sale

2/13/90 -- Nathan Eovaldi

8/28/89 -- Matt Andriese

4/4/91 -- Martin Perez

 

I'm not getting your point.