Yankees sign a Gerrit Cole...

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees have some trade chips. Some good (Andujar), some overrated but not bad (Frazier), and some flat out bad (Happ).

 

But I think Cashman spent his allowance...

 

I agree, although a team will take the chance on Happ with the pitching prices where they are. It’s a one year deal that could be two if the team makes it happen. For one year of a guy coming off a poor 2019 but was a durable 3 WAR pitcher for the prior four seasons, it’s not exorbitant. I also think Happ will benefit in a move back to the NL. I said before that I thought we could deal him for IFA money and we’d need to include $7 mil. With the prices for pitching going up, dealing Happ on his own, we’d probably now have to kick in $5 mil.

 

Here’s the deal. Cole Hamels just got a 1 yr $18 mil deal with Atlanta. Cole’s WHIP was nearly 1.4. Happ outpaced him there. Cole has a better K rate, Happ the better walk rate. The area of absolute killer concern for Happ was the HR rate, nearly 2 per 9. That’s likely an anomaly and would be benefited by having him move to the NL or to a bigger park.

 

As I said with Sonny Gray last year (who was an all star and got CY votes this year), Happ isn’t “done”. He’s not useless. He has clear value. He just needs to leave NY both from a performance and a logistical standpoint.

[notin]

I agree, although a team will take the chance on Happ with the pitching prices where they are. It’s a one year deal that could be two if the team makes it happen. For one year of a guy coming off a poor 2019 but was a durable 3 WAR pitcher for the prior four seasons, it’s not exorbitant. I also think Happ will benefit in a move back to the NL. I said before that I thought we could deal him for IFA money and we’d need to include $7 mil. With the prices for pitching going up, dealing Happ on his own, we’d probably now have to kick in $5 mil.

 

Here’s the deal. Cole Hamels just got a 1 yr $18 mil deal with Atlanta. Cole’s WHIP was nearly 1.4. Happ outpaced him there. Cole has a better K rate, Happ the better walk rate. The area of absolute killer concern for Happ was the HR rate, nearly 2 per 9. That’s likely an anomaly and would be benefited by having him move to the NL or to a bigger park.

 

As I said with Sonny Gray last year (who was an all star and got CY votes this year), Happ isn’t “done”. He’s not useless. He has clear value. He just needs to leave NY both from a performance and a logistical standpoint.

 

Sonny Gray isn't 37 and won't be for a few more years.

 

Happ is actually less desirable than Eovaldi for a few reasons. And you know this based on the activity and contracts both got when they were competing free agents one year ago. Eovaldi's injury really doesn't change this, since it was hardly a surprise.

 

If the Yankees can move Happ, be happy. But they are going to eat a good chunk and probably get back very little, if anything. But the proposal on the Yankee thread was the team could move all $17mill by including some ubiquitous mediocrity like Steve Tarpley. Not going to happen. While he's a better trade target than Price, that doesn't put Happ in demand. And while the Yankees have some good pitchers on the farm, that doesn't mean teams are clamoring to get any of them to the point where they will gladly pay $17mill to any warm body coming down the pipeline with them. Want someone to take Happ's contract? Attach a real prospect. Flovial still might get the job done, but he won't if he continues down this path. Maybe Gil?

 

And if your selling point at any time uses the words "he could," then you don't have a selling point. We might as well have posts saying "David Price could bounce back to Cy Young form. And if he does he's a bargain." And you know what, that is a true statement. But it's not a selling point, since its not very likely.

 

Happ is an innings eater at this point, which even you yourself said, but in more market-friendly verbiage. He is the older (re: less durable) version of Rick Porcello. If a 30yo innings-eater is worth $10mill, a 37yo innings eater is not worth $17mill. That the price of Cole and Strasburg went up really doesn't affect the price of Happ...

Edited December 15, 2019 by notin

[harmony]

Sonny Gray isn't 37 and won't be for a few more years.

 

Happ is actually less desirable than Eovaldi for a few reasons. And you know this based on the activity and contracts both got when they were competing free agents one year ago. Eovaldi's injury really doesn't change this, since it was hardly a surprise.

 

If the Yankees can move Happ, be happy. But they are going to eat a good chunk and probably get back very little, if anything. But the proposal on the Yankee thread was the team could move all $17mill by including some ubiquitous mediocrity like Steve Tarpley. Not going to happen. While he's a better trade target than Price, that doesn't put him in demand.

 

And if your selling point at any time uses the words "he could," then you don't have a selling point. We might as well have posts saying "David Price could bounce back to Cy Young form. And if he does he's a bargain."

 

Happ is an innings eater at this point, which even you yourself said, but in more market-friendly verbiage. He is the older (re: less durable) version of Rick Porcello. If a 30yo innings-eater is worth $10mill, a 37yo innings eater is not worth $17mill. That the price of Cole and Strasburg went up really doesn't affect the price of Happ...

Baseball Trade Values gives J.A. Happ a negative value of $9.1 million, Nathan Eovaldi a negative value of $29.5 million and David Price a negative value of $60 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/team-values/

[notin]

Baseball Trade Values gives J.A. Happ a negative value of $9.1 million, Nathan Eovaldi a negative value of $29.5 million and David Price a negative value of $60 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/team-values/

 

I don't think any GM would line up for any of them, but when they had a chance to one year ago, the line in front of Eovaldi was reportedly longer...

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball Trade Values gives J.A. Happ a negative value of $9.1 million, Nathan Eovaldi a negative value of $29.5 million and David Price a negative value of $60 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/team-values/

 

Please, I beg you, don't post Price's trade value again. This is about the dozenth time you've done it.

[notin]

Please, I beg you, don't post Price's trade value again. This is about the dozenth time you've done it.

 

 

And he’s starting to include it in posts where it’s not even relevant...

[harmony]

And he’s starting to include it in posts where it’s not even relevant...

My latest post was in response to your post that brought David Price into the conversation.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think any GM would line up for any of them, but when they had a chance to one year ago, the line in front of Eovaldi was reportedly longer...

 

Mostly because Eovaldi is the freakish talent. He’s the guy you’d pay to see pop that gun at 100. And he did it in the playoffs. Circumstance certainly plays up values. But he turned out to be a dud.

 

I think Cash is playing this offseason perfectly thus far. He’s been aggressive bringing guys back and making the team better and being patient dealing off parts

[notin]

My latest post was in response to your post that brought David Price into the conversation.

 

 

The mere mention of Price’s name mean it needs to come up.

 

Oh no! I mentioned Price name!! And there I did it again!! That’s two more trade value references..,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There should be separate columns for small market teams trying to tank, mid markets seeking improvement, and big markets pushing for the promised land. Then it'd be more reasonable to assign plus/minus values...

 

... for example, veteran starters with large contracts would definitely be negatives for the tankers, but maybe positives for big-timers looking for one more piece to get over the top. On the other hand, prospects would seem to have positive value for the small markets, but not so much for those in win-now windows.

 

Without some sort of modifications that consider individual needs, it's hard to take something so formulaic that seriously...

[notin]

There should be separate columns for small market teams trying to tank, mid markets seeking improvement, and big markets pushing for the promised land. Then it'd be more reasonable to assign plus/minus values...

 

... for example, veteran starters with large contracts would definitely be negatives for the tankers, but maybe positives for big-timers looking for one more piece to get over the top. On the other hand, prospects would seem to have positive value for the small markets, but not so much for those in win-now windows.

 

Without some sort of modifications that consider individual needs, it's hard to take something so formulaic that seriously...

 

 

Seriously? That’s like criticizing Amazon because it doesn’t tell you if you need to buy something...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Seriously? That’s like criticizing Amazon because it doesn’t tell you if you need to buy something...

 

Ya, because according to the magic formula, Texas just "overpaid" -- based entirely on assigned dollar values -- to get Kluber. What in the world were they thinking? Quick, send them the link, maybe it's not too late to undo.

[notin]

Ya, because according to the magic formula, Texas just "overpaid" -- based entirely on assigned dollar values -- to get Kluber. What in the world were they thinking? Quick, send them the link, maybe it's not too late to undo.

 

 

Teams do that all the time, too. People also overpay for cars by giving up more money than the Kelly Blue Book says the car is worth. Does that mean the Blue Book is useless? Or that people make bad deals?

[harmony]

There should be separate columns for small market teams trying to tank, mid markets seeking improvement, and big markets pushing for the promised land. Then it'd be more reasonable to assign plus/minus values...

 

... for example, veteran starters with large contracts would definitely be negatives for the tankers, but maybe positives for big-timers looking for one more piece to get over the top. On the other hand, prospects would seem to have positive value for the small markets, but not so much for those in win-now windows.

 

Without some sort of modifications that consider individual needs, it's hard to take something so formulaic that seriously...

Perhaps there should be a category for a team under constraints to get under the luxury tax threshold while trying to improve on an 84-win season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Perhaps there should be a category for a team under constraints to get under the luxury tax threshold while trying to improve on an 84-win season.

 

Except what they value might be considered subtracting value -- as long as that doesn't include a guy most deem their most valuable...

[Swiharts Ghost]

That contract and pitching for a s*** team in Pitt with soft as Downey media then going to Houston on a team he didn't have to be the Ace ....yeah NY is an all or nothing for most players .Cole has as much chance of being a gutterball as a success .Huuuuuuuuuge Pressure now .

[jacksonianmarch]

That contract and pitching for a s*** team in Pitt with soft as Downey media then going to Houston on a team he didn't have to be the Ace ....yeah NY is an all or nothing for most players .Cole has as much chance of being a gutterball as a success .Huuuuuuuuuge Pressure now .

 

That's because you want him to be. Cole is going to go as far as his health carries him. If he is healthy, he will dominate. His presence will also take the weight off the shoulders of Severino and Paxton. I expect big things from those two this year

[Swiharts Ghost]

Jax you know I'm right on Cole .The guy has never faced a league like he's facing the next 9.....Cole is a stud no question

he will get shelled like many before him early and often especially coming from the no pressure environment he's been coddled in .The AL east eats players alive .

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol, you're entirely delusional.

[Swiharts Ghost]

I can't wait to chant Cooooooole Cooooooole Coooooooooole as he gets dismantled and figured out .Fun fun fun Jax .Good luck

[jacksonianmarch]

Saying something that you want to happen doesn't make it so. Cole is going to be pretty dominant. Deal with it

[Larry Cook]

It will be interesting to see how Cole’s shoulder and elbow hold up over the next couple of years.

[moonslav59]

Saying something that you want to happen doesn't make it so. Cole is going to be pretty dominant. Deal with it

 

He should be for at least a year or two, but things often happen.

 

We got Price when he was just 1 year older than Cole is now. He was a clear ace with a strong recent and extended history of health and excellence.

 

Things happen.

 

While you are right, one could also say wanting him to be dominant going forward "doesn't make it so."

[Bellhorn04]

It will be interesting to see how Cole’s shoulder and elbow hold up over the next couple of years.

 

You can say that about pretty much every pitcher.

[notin]

You can say that about pretty much every pitcher.

 

... except for Greg Harris and Billy Wagner, where you had to make the words plural instead..

[jacksonianmarch]

Price is a string bean. Cole is built sturdier and throws harder. Either way, we won’t know until 2020 concludes, but I’m sure as hell gonna enjoy the ride

[moonslav59]

Price is a string bean. Cole is built sturdier and throws harder. Either way, we won’t know until 2020 concludes, but I’m sure as hell gonna enjoy the ride

 

I don't blame you, but as a Sox fan with an eye on budget costs, I'm glad the Yanks signed Cole for mega bucks. I'm thinking the long term negative effects will out weight the short term gains you likely will see.

[notin]

I don't blame you, but as a Sox fan with an eye on budget costs, I'm glad the Yanks signed Cole for mega bucks. I'm thinking the long term negative effects will out weight the short term gains you likely will see.

 

Flags might fly forever, but most fans forget about them in a coupe years. I don't see anyone touting the 2013 banner anymore...

[moonslav59]

Price is a string bean. Cole is built sturdier and throws harder. Either way, we won’t know until 2020 concludes, but I’m sure as hell gonna enjoy the ride

 

String bean or not, Price was a horse when we signed him.

 

Before we signed him, he had these numbers:

 

469 IP in his previous 2 seasons- most in MLB

208+ IP in 4 of his previous 5 seasons (with 187 in the fifth)

27+ starts in 5 straight seasons (31+ in 4 of 5)

Previous 4 season totals:

63-30 2.90 (133 ERA+)

2.90 FIP

8.9 K/9 (4.98 K/BB)

1.087 WHIP

 

He then led the AL in IP in his first year with the Sox at age 30 (230 IP)

2014-2016 IP Leaders

699 Price

677 Scherzer

675 Cueto

673 Kluber

662 Bumgarner

637 Samardzija

627 Lester

[moonslav59]

Flags might fly forever, but most fans forget about them in a coupe years. I don't see anyone touting the 2013 banner anymore...

 

Maybe not the actual banner, but there was a lot of recent discussion about the sell-off of 2012 and the 2013 ring year.