2020 Yankee Off-Season Thread

[Bellhorn04]

What's the deal on Happ's vesting option?

[jacksonianmarch]

Much like the Sox pitchers, Happ has aged since then. So you keep pointing out that Price, who is 3 years younger than Happ, is getting old and his career is going the wrong way, but now you think 37yo Happ is a prime bounce back candidate? Pinstriped glasses or what?

 

One year ago, Eovaldi (who is significantly younger than Happ) was a hot commodity. Think he still is? He’d be available on a shorter deal than one year ago. Sure he was hurt last year, but which of his past suitors would really be surprised here?

 

Like Happ, Eovaldi makes about $17mill. Unlike Happ, he’s 29 and turns 30 in a couple months. So why go for Happ based on 2 years ago when 30yo Eovaldi is available? If you’re answer involves recency, Happ isn’t coming off a stellar year.

 

Two reasons

 

1. Happ has been FAR more durable than the glass man himself, Eovaldi. Nate and Jacoby are IL buddies. They have been hurt more than healthy

 

2. The guaranteed money left. If Happ is a disaster, he’s a one year disaster. For Nate, if he’s a disaster, you’ve got him for three years

[jacksonianmarch]

He needs to throw 165 innings in 2020. So if he sucks, no way the team acquiring him allows it to vest

[moonslav59]

Then the yanks are planning to blow past the final limit and not give a s***. Don’t like that plan especially when we are now out a fifth and second round pick for signing cole

 

The site of the future, impending cliff is coming into focus.

[notin]

Two reasons

 

1. Happ has been FAR more durable than the glass man himself, Eovaldi. Nate and Jacoby are IL buddies. They have been hurt more than healthy

 

2. The guaranteed money left. If Happ is a disaster, he’s a one year disaster. For Nate, if he’s a disaster, you’ve got him for three years

 

LOL

 

I don’t even think you believe those reasons. I understand it’s tough coming up with good points from the weak side, but those were really weak and EASILY counterable if you want me to.

 

The only reason I don’t is we both know evenyou don’t believe your arguments...

[notin]

He needs to throw 165 innings in 2020. So if he sucks, no way the team acquiring him allows it to vest

 

... which would result in a grievance.

[notin]

The site of the future, impending cliff is coming into focus.

 

No no. Only Red Sox have cliffs...

[jacksonianmarch]

... which would result in a grievance.

 

And one he would lose. Listen, if Happ goes to Milwaukee (most recent articles suggest them as the likely team) and he does his previous standard 3.5-4ERA performance, then the BrewCrew will be happy to let that option vest and have him for another season. If he comes out the game as the near 5ERA pitcher he was last year, they'll move him to the pen mid season and the option won't vest. Very simple

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks signed Adam Warren. Normally, this would actually be news since he has been solid as a Yankee and every time he leaves NY, he sucks. But he had TJS in September and is gonna miss all of 2020. I do wonder if the Yankees baked in an option for 2021

[jacksonianmarch]

With the Ellsbury discussion in full swing, one had to wonder what the impact would be on the Yanks should they win the grievance. If the Yanks are successfully able to void Ellsbury's contract, they will shed his $21.14 mil salary and bring their lux tax total down to $237 mil. This is BEFORE the Yanks offload Happ, which I full expect them to do. I have written in the past that a healthy (remains to be seen if he is) Happ would probably be able to be sold off for about $10 mil, especially with a vesting option attached that could be useful for a club looking for a veteran starter to stabilize a rotation. So if the Yanks include $7 mil with Happ and get out from under Ellsbury's albatross, the Yanks would have a lux tax payroll around $228 mil. Thus leaving us a $20 mil buffer between them and the top tax threshold. This could then be used for a massive deadline upgrade OR make the Yanks players for another pen arm, which they seem to be actively looking at

[jacksonianmarch]

I keep seeing reports of Hader being linked to the Yanks, but I just don't see it. I do see a link for Happ to the Brewers, especially since Milwaukee had a weird purge of talent from their rotation.

 

Their two highest IP starters are gone. Zach Davies went to SD and Chase Anderson is in Toronto. They have added Brett Anderson, who is clearly not a guy you can count on due to injury, Eric Lauer (who was obtained for Davies) , and Josh Lindlom, who was pitching in Korea. Lindblom could be a steal as he seems to have found himself in Korea and could be a cheaper American option a la Miles Mikolas of the Cards and Merril Kelly of the DBacks. Both those guys came back and were either very good (Mikolas) or serviceable (Kelly) after coming back from "finding themselves" overseas.

 

Eric Lauer is a guy who struggled with the longball in San Diego of all places, but as a 24 yr old with good enough command and movement, he likely jumps in as the co-ace of the staff. Anderson is probably their most useful veteran, although he never stays healthy. Adding into their mix is Brandon Woodruff, who is the highest ceiling guy, but has a total of 30 starts under his belt and has never crossed 125 innings in a big league season before. Adrian Houser rounds out the rotation as another stuff guy with a career high IP total of 111 last season at 26 yrs old.

 

The only guy on their roster who has stayed healthy and took the mound regularly the last two years is Lauer, who seems to be a back end guy at best. No idea what Lindblom gets out. Woodruff and Houser have the best stuff, but no pedigree and Anderson's best attribute is he brings veteran leadership while on the IL collecting paychecks. The Brewers need a pitcher who can reliably give innings. So Happ makes sense. Also, with the fact that their starters aren't the most durable and aren't great at going long into games, Hader is absolutely necessary to fill that relief ace role and lock down games their offense gives them leads in.

 

The other side of this, also, is that the Brewers lost a LOT of offense. Grandal, Thames, Shaw, and Moustakas are gone. They likely pilfered Urias from the Padres, so he should add something if he reaches his potential. They did add in Garcia, who slots in with Cain and Yelich as a top 5 OF in the game. Their IF adds Braun back, likely as a 1b option and sometimes moving to LF. They added Smoak and Sogard to an infield that includes the aforementioned Urias, Hiura and Arcia. They did deal for Narvaez to replace Grandal, which brings offense from a defensive position, although Narvaez is a butcher behind the dish.

 

The link I keep seeing brought up by pundits is an Andujar plus prospects (likely Garcia) for Hader. I don't see how this helps the Brewers. They have a great OF. They have an infield loaded with talent without a perceivable hole and with 2 high upside rookies who will need full time PT in Urias and Hiura. They do not have a "full time" 3b on the roster, which I understand, but between Urias, Sogard, Arcia and Urias, they have 4 players vying for 3 spots.

 

Hence, I think a Happ deal to the Brewers could very much be in play. But with the way the current Brewers roster is constructed, there is no way the Brewers are actively looking to move Hader unless they plan to tank

[notin]

The Brewers also have Corbin Burnes (age 25) and Freddy Peralta (23) they could use in their rotation.

 

Calling trading Hader tanking should at least wait until we see what he is dealt for. And you really don’t see Andujar and Garcia helping Milwaukee? I could see them plugging Andujar in at 1b, much like New York should...

[jacksonianmarch]

The brewers are built on a strong pen. Hader offers them flexibility in their relief roles that they need with how their rotation is built

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop here. This Yankee team is deep. That depth allowed us to win the East going away with a record amount of injuries, so I’m not a huge fan of depleting it. But there comes a time when you need to chose which guys to deal when their value is high before they start getting paid a lot of money and end up less valuable or risk losing them to FA. There is too much smoke here for me to assume nothing is gonna happen. It seems Cashman is looking for a cheaper but still dominant option in the pen. I know Hader is the hot topic, but I wonder if there’s another guy that can be had for less. Maybe a guy like Brad Hand (not cheap, I know) or even Leclerc from Texas (who sucked first half but dominated second half). It certainly seems like this is a probability.

[notin]

Two reasons

 

1. Happ has been FAR more durable than the glass man himself, Eovaldi. Nate and Jacoby are IL buddies. They have been hurt more than healthy

 

2. The guaranteed money left. If Happ is a disaster, he’s a one year disaster. For Nate, if he’s a disaster, you’ve got him for three years

 

 

Unless Nate isn’t a disaster for all 3 years. One bad year doesn’t ruin him as an option...

[jacksonianmarch]

What about a full career of being a sub average starter?

[notin]

What about a full career of being a sub average starter?

 

You mean like Happ had at the same age nearly a decade ago?

[jacksonianmarch]

You mean like Happ had at the same age nearly a decade ago?

 

Happ re-made himself and also found more velocity (HGH, roids, who knows).

[notin]

Happ re-made himself and also found more velocity (HGH, roids, who knows).

 

 

So a 37 year old $17mill 1 fWAR possible cheater is the guy you think is the better option?

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s on a one year deal. Eovaldi could be an albatross for three seasons

[moonslav59]

He’s on a one year deal. Eovaldi could be an albatross for three seasons

 

Eovaldi usually pitches significant innings every other year or so, it's not likely he sucks or is injured all 3 years.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Many pitchers who have equal or worse injury histories than Eovaldi and Price have signed for significant money.

 

These two pitchers are not valueless. The key is finding the GM who values them the most or is desperate enough to take a flyer on the risk-reward situation.

[bkzwhitestrican]

There was finally a ruling on German's suspension today, and he will miss the first 63 games of the year (81 games in total, retroactive to 9/19/19) for domestic violence.

[Station 13]

Chapman got a new friend.

[moonslav59]

Another Yankee caught cheating with PEDs.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/domingo-german-reportedly-facing-significant-suspension.html

[jacksonianmarch]

That’s wrong. I’d rather it have been PEDs, but it was domestic violence

[moonslav59]

That’s wrong. I’d rather it have been PEDs, but it was domestic violence

 

My bad. I just assumed...

[bkzwhitestrican]

Domestic violence AND steroids?? We must be talkin bout Steven Wright

[jacksonianmarch]

I am now reading about how the Yanks intend on keeping Andujar and will probably stash him in AAA to start the year. I think that is a swell idea. Andujar is supposedly healthy and while shoulder injuries are never great, they're far more devastating to pitchers. Also, Miggy is pretty young. The big knock on Miggy is that he cannot field, or at least sucked in his one year of big league experience. Well, pulling him from the bright lights and forcing him to focus on his glove would be great. The other reason is because of Urshela. Gio was amazing last year, but it was FAR and away his best season of his career. Is he likely to replicate it? Not at all. But does he slip to a .270-20-70 guy, which would be perfectly acceptable as a good but not great glove man? Or does he slip to a .230, no power dumpster fire with the stick that he was previously? Nobody knows. Miggy is Urshela insurance. Gio is healthy, has the better glove and hit like Miggy last year. He also has no more MiLB options. Gio gets at least 2 months of rope here. If he reverts to a pile of s***, then Miggy rises and assumes his spot. If Gio continues to smash, then we have a great predicament. Then I would move Miggy all over the diamond as insurance and use him as a COF/CIF hybrid with the intent to get his stick in the lineup

[notin]

Domestic violence AND steroids?? We must be talkin bout Steven Wright

 

Yeah his personality does not seem to have much in common with that of his comedian namesake...