The JD opt out

[moonslav59]

We did get E Rod for couple of months of Miller.

 

I guess 2 months of Miller is worth more than 6+ months of Betts according to Elk.

[moonslav59]

You'd think, if nobody wants Betts at $28M, why would we?

[Elktonnick]

So, to use your logic, nobody wants Betts, or all we'll get is crap for a guy worth over $70M by one estimator.

 

That is your logic not mine. Quite frankly I have always avoided playing the trading game because the average fan simply doesn't have access to all the information to make a rational proposal. It is the same reason that I have a professional financial advisor handle my portfolio than do it myself.

 

IMO and those of virtually every professional baseball analyst the Red Sox would get pennies on the dollar by trading Betts now. If the team does trade Betts the team actually would have more leverage closer to the trade deadline when contenders are likely to offer more than they would now. Plus I think the fan base would be more likely to accept a Betts trade if the Sox are not a contender then they would now. So I am of the opinion make your run next year and see where we stand come trade deadline time.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Elktonnick

[Elktonnick]

I guess 2 months of Miller is worth more than 6+ months of Betts according to Elk.

 

And look what happened to Os pitching. Apples to Oranges in any case. BTW that deal was made at the trade deadline if I am not mistaken.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Elktonnick

[moonslav59]

That is your logic not mine. Quite frankly I have always avoided playing the trading game because the average fan simply doesn't have access to all the information to make a rational proposal. It is the same reason that I have a professional financial advisor handle my portfolio than do it myself.

 

IMO and those of virtually every professional baseball analyst the Red Sox would get pennies on the dollar by trading Betts now. If the team does trade Betts the team actually would have more leverage closer to the trade deadline when contenders are likely to offer more than they would now. So I am of the opinion make your run next year and see where we stand come trade deadline time.

 

Name one professional baseball analyst that says that, and are the factoring the FAs we can sign for $28M as part of the deal?

 

You asked me to name names, now the ball is in your court.

 

For $28M, according to professional analyst MLTR, we could sign:

 

 

Ozuna & Will Smith

 

or

 

Teheran, Will Harris & , Daniel Hudson & Kole Calhoun

[Swiharts Ghost]

Name one professional baseball analyst that says that, and are the factoring the FAs we can sign for $28M as part of the deal?

 

You asked me to name names, now the ball is in your court.

 

For $28M, according to professional analyst MLTR, we could sign:

 

 

Ozuna & Will Smith

 

or

 

Teheran, Will Harris & , Daniel Hudson & Kole Calhoun

Moon don’t take the bait .We know what you meant .

[Elktonnick]

Name one professional baseball analyst that says that, and are the factoring the FAs we can sign for $28M as part of the deal?

 

You asked me to name names, now the ball is in your court.

 

For $28M, according to professional analyst MLTR, we could sign:

 

 

Ozuna & Will Smith

 

or

 

Teheran, Will Harris & , Daniel Hudson & Kole Calhoun

 

Listen to the MLB radio you can hear them your self. The last one I heard was Sean Casey. But the real issue the Sox don't need to trade Betts at all. There will be a backlash. While I am not a season ticket holder, I know the Red Sox are reaching out to their season ticket holders especially those who have not renewed. One complained to me that it now costs 500 dllrs for a family of four to see the average game. At those prices the Sox need attractions like Betts or they can suffer the same fate as other teams who have seen attendance decline.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Elktonnick

[Elktonnick]

Name one professional baseball analyst that says that, and are the factoring the FAs we can sign for $28M as part of the deal?

 

You asked me to name names, now the ball is in your court.

 

For $28M, according to professional analyst MLTR, we could sign:

 

 

Ozuna & Will Smith

 

or

 

Teheran, Will Harris & , Daniel Hudson & Kole Calhoun

 

You may want to reread your post. The way I understand your post you want to trade Betts to cut payroll and get below the LT and then you want to spend the money saved on signing Free Agents is that correct?

[moonslav59]

Listen to the MLB radio you can hear them your self. The last one I heard was Sean Casey. But the real issue the Sox don't need to trade Betts at all. There will be a backlash. While I am not a season ticket holder, I know the Red Sox are reaching out to their season ticket holders especially those who have not renewed. One complained to me that it now costs 500 dllrs for a family of four to see the average game. At those prices the Sox need attractions like Betts or they can suffer the same fate as other teams who have seen attendance decline.

 

I'm not saying we will trade him. The reasons you mention here are real enough to maybe cause us to at least wait until July, if ever.

 

I'm a huge Betts fan. I want to see him stay in Boston forever. I think my position on offering him over $300M/10 might be the only poster here that has gone that high.

 

I'm not sure I want to trade him, unless I see what we can get for him. I know that might be impossible until and unless he actually gets traded or some team admits to an actual offer made (rare). My point was about what we MIGHT want to do to make the rebuild quicker and better. Srely, trading Betts for something and then signing him in 2021 is better for teh rebuild than not doing it. Yes, it lessens our chances in 2020 and hurts our viewership for one year, but it might be worth it.

 

IMO, our 2020 chances are slim, so I'm leaning towards making any deal that helps us in 2021 and beyond. I'd also be fine with waiting until July to see if we have a chance to win a ring in 2020. If we are out of it, then make some deals.

 

[moonslav59]

You may want to reread your post. The way I understand your post you want to trade Betts to cut payroll and get below the LT and then you want to spend the money saved on signing Free Agents is that correct?

 

Non tendering JBJ or trading him gets us to the line. Trading Betts is one plan. Trading JD is another. Trading both would be a total rebuild, but even that plan has merits. Trading Price and/or Eovaldi won't save us much as we'd have to take salary back or give cash.

 

Let's take the trade Betts plan. Yes, if we trade him, we'd be $28M under the tax line, assuming we don't get anyone higher than min salary in return. Then in theory, we can spend $28M a year on FAs to make us respectable in 2020, but I'd only sign players that look to help us beyond 2020. Some would be one year deals to allow us enough space that when JD opts out after 2020, we'll have enough space to sign Betts. (We should be able to go back over the line after the 2020 reset., even if JD does not opt out.)

 

I don't think it's that complicated to understand.

 

Yes, the fams paying for season tickets probably prefer to see Betts over Ozyuna and Smith or the other 4 I suggested below, but we'd be better positioned for 2021 without a doubt in my mind.

[Elktonnick]

Non tendering JBJ or trading him gets us to the line. Trading Betts is one plan. Trading JD is another. Trading both would be a total rebuild, but even that plan has merits. Trading Price and/or Eovaldi won't save us much as we'd have to take salary back or give cash.

 

Let's take the trade Betts plan. Yes, if we trade him, we'd be $28M under the tax line, assuming we don't get anyone higher than min salary in return. Then in theory, we can spend $28M a year on FAs to make us respectable in 2020, but I'd only sign players that look to help us beyond 2020. Some would be one year deals to allow us enough space that when JD opts out after 2020, we'll have enough space to sign Betts. (We should be able to go back over the line after the 2020 reset., even if JD does not opt out.)

 

I don't think it's that complicated to understand.

 

Yes, the fams paying for season tickets probably prefer to see Betts over Ozyuna and Smith or the other 4 I suggested below, but we'd be better positioned for 2021 without a doubt in my mind.

 

The goal is to get below the LT. If you get below the LT by X dllrs you can't spend X dllrs on FAs and expect to stay under the LT in 21. You will be back to where you started. Moreover if you trade Betts he isn't coming back. A far simpler plan is trade JBJ and Cushner, DFA Leon and Hembree do not resign Porcello and I believe you are at about 24 million in savings.

[moonslav59]

The goal is to get below the LT. If you get below the LT by X dllrs you can't spend X dllrs on FAs and expect to stay under the LT in 21. You will be back to where you started. Moreover if you trade Betts he isn't coming back. A far simpler plan is trade JBJ and Cushner, DFA Leon and Hembree do not resign Porcello and I believe you are at about 24 million in savings.

 

 

Not re-signing Porcello and Cashner are already part of the equation. Not bringing anyone back leaves us about $10M over the line.

 

Trading Betts allows us to spend up to $28M and still reset, which is the goal. We can spend about $28M and still reset. If they are all one year deals, we'll have $28M to spend in 2021, too, plus more from newly departing FAs and/or maybe JD opting out.

 

There is no indication Henry wants to stay under the tax line every year. I'm thinking he wants to reset and then would be okay going over the first line and maybe the second only when needed.

 

Your "simpler plan" shows you are clueless about where we are budget wise.

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Such a deal would be for the Braves and not very good for Boston. Incarte injury history last year makes him problematic and the two pitchers are unlikely to be major league ready if at all in the near term.

 

Let Atlanta keep Enderman and give us the two elite OF prospects, plus the pitching prospects -- that's the only kind of haul that would maybe make it worth happening... to me, a Red Sox fan.

 

Anyone remember the Von Hayes trade?

 

Back in the early-80s, the Phillies bit on a 5-for-1, sending four prospects (plus veteran Manny Trillo, on the downside of his career) to Cleveland for Hayes, a young outfielder coming off a decent rookie year. None of the players Philly gave up amounted to much -- except Julio Franco, who played until he was 48 and won five Silver Slugger Awards, a batting title, and earned 43.5 bWAR -- but for eight different clubs.

 

Hayes had a few good seasons in a 12-year career in which he contributed 29.1 WAR. He was never a superstar... or even Julio Franco. The deal was a stunner at the time, but maybe an example of a trade that was ultimately mediocre, that no one really won. Each team involved eventually lost more games than it won through the end of that decade.

 

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it.

[moonslav59]

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it.

 

Betts could actually be worth $60-70M a year for 2-3 years. $320M/10 could be a steal for us... or not.

[Elktonnick]

Not re-signing Porcello and Cashner are already part of the equation. Not bringing anyone back leaves us about $10M over the line.

 

Trading Betts allows us to spend up to $28M and still reset, which is the goal. We can spend about $28M and still reset. If they are all one year deals, we'll have $28M to spend in 2021, too, plus more from newly departing FAs and/or maybe JD opting out.

 

There is no indication Henry wants to stay under the tax line every year. I'm thinking he wants to reset and then would be okay going over the first line and maybe the second only when needed.

 

Your "simpler plan" shows you are clueless about where we are budget wise.

 

 

 

 

Sporttrac lists the Sox 2020 budget as follows: Proj. Comp. Balance Payroll $226,783,333

Comp. Balance Tax Space -18,783,333

 

Those figures already exclude Porcello. Trading JBJ and Cushner(the latter's salary is included in the Sporttrac figures) save 11m and 8m putting the club below the LT level. DFA Leon and Hembree save another 4.4 million. The Sportstrac data projects Betts at 27.7mafter arb so that is included in the above figures. I don't know where you got you budget numbers but those are the ones published in Sporttrac which I take as more authentic than anything you cited. What was your source anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$

Edited November 6, 2019 by Elktonnick

[moonslav59]

Sporttrac lists the Sox 2020 budget as follows: Proj. Comp. Balance Payroll $226,783,333

Comp. Balance Tax Space -18,783,333

 

Those figures already exclude Porcello. Trading JBJ and Cushner(the latter's salary is included in the Sporttrac figures) save 11m and 8m putting the club below the LT level. DFA Leon and Hembree save another 4.4 million. The Sportstrac data projects Betts at 27.7mafter arb so that is included in the above figures. I don't know where you got you budget numbers but those are the ones published in Sporttrac which I take as more authentic than anything you cited. What was your source anyway.

 

Believe what you want. There is a $15M player benefit cost that counts against the luxury budget. I used cots- the most respected source out there and the arb projections from MLBTR, who have been very accurate over the years.

 

With nobody re-signed and no FAs singed, we are about $10M over. Not bringing JBJ back puts us about even. We can let Leon and Hembree go to as a bit more, but my numbers are very close to accurate.

 

The tax limit next year is $208M, so that site is messed up. cots has us $57M under the line, but they do not count arbs.

 

Your claim of not signing Porcello would open $24M to spend is wrong on so many levels, I'm getting close to putting you on ignore. (I've only done that once on this site, so consider yourself special.)

Edited November 6, 2019 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

Believe what you want. There is a $15M player benefit cost that counts against the luxury budget. I used cots- the most respected source out there and the arb projections from MLBTR, who have been very accurate over the years.

 

With nobody re-signed and no FAs singed, we are about $10M over. Not bringing JBJ back puts us about even. We can let Leon and Hembree go to as a bit more, but my numbers are very close to accurate.

 

The tax limit next year is $208M, so that site is messed up.

 

Your claim of not signing Porcello would open $24M to spend is wrong on so many levels, I'm getting close to putting you on ignore. (I've only done that once on this site, so consider yourself special.)

 

The site lists the Sox budget for 2020 as 226M and change. It lists the sox projected budget as being 18m and change over the LT if you subtract 18 from 226 you get 208. The site isn't messed up at all. It lists every Sox players salary. It doesn't include Porcello's salary in the 226 million. You aren't quibbling with me. You are now challenging Spotracs budgets figures. I don't know where you get your data but all anyone has to do is Google Red Sox 2020 Payroll Go to the Spotrac website and read the columns and look up the salaries and do the math. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

Ignore me if you want but you can not argue with the math. I showed you where I got my figures which anyone can go to the website and see for themselves. I still haven't seen the source for your data.

[kenmeister]

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it.

 

Betts could actually be worth $60-70M a year for 2-3 years. $320M/10 could be a steal for us... or not.

 

I've said it before, but I think it's worth repeating. Overpaying one guy on a 25 man roster is a disaster, unless ownership doesn't care about the luxury tax. If we pay Mookie $30 million plus, we'll never win, because the rest of the roster will suck. Unless we trade Price. But if I'm another MLB team, I only take Price if you also give me Bogaerts and E-Rod.

[moonslav59]

The site lists the Sox budget for 2020 as 226M and change. It lists the sox projected budget as being 18m and change over the LT if you subtract 18 from 226 you get 208. The site isn't messed up at all. It lists every Sox players salary. It doesn't include Porcello's salary in the 226 million. You aren't quibbling with me. You are now challenging Spotracs budgets figures. I don't know where you get your data but all anyone has to do is Google Red Sox 2020 Payroll Go to the Spotrac website and read the columns and look up the salaries and do the math. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

Ignore me if you want but you can not argue with the math. I showed you where I got my figures which anyone can go to the website and see for themselves. I still haven't seen the source for your data.

 

"Budget cap space" implies being under the line by $18M.

 

Here's cots:

 

 

They don't list arb costs, but here is MLBTR's estimates:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

 

It shows us with about $56.8M to spend on arbs

 

Red Sox (12)

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM

Sandy Leon – $2.8MM

Chris Owings – $3.0MM GONE

Mookie Betts – $27.7MM

Brandon Workman – $3.4MM

Steven Wright – $1.5MM GONE

Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM

Matt Barnes – $3.0MM

Heath Hembree – $1.6MM

Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM

Marco Hernandez – $700K

Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM GONE

 

Counting the guys who are "GONE", the arbs total about $64M

 

If we shed JBJ, we get under the line by a little bit. There is no room to sign anybody and reset, unless we trade some salary. We can gain a little by axing Hembree & Leon and maybe sign a cheap FA, but that's it.

 

Your site:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

It has JD at $23.75M for luxury tax. It's $22M because the AVV is $22M. They are also counting Cashner, and his $8M option will not be taken. That's just 2 mistakes I found while looking quickly.

 

Either way, take off Cashner and JBJ and they'd have us near the $208M line, just as I said.

 

 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

"Budget cap space" implies being under the line by $18M.

 

Here's cots:

 

 

They don't list arb costs, but here is MLBTR's estimates:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

 

It shows us with about $56.8M to spend on arbs

 

Red Sox (12)

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM

Sandy Leon – $2.8MM

Chris Owings – $3.0MM GONE

Mookie Betts – $27.7MM

Brandon Workman – $3.4MM

Steven Wright – $1.5MM GONE

Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM

Matt Barnes – $3.0MM

Heath Hembree – $1.6MM

Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM

Marco Hernandez – $700K

Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM GONE

 

Counting the guys who are "GONE", the arbs total about $64M

 

If we shed JBJ, we get under the line by a little bit. There is no room to sign anybody and reset, unless we trade some salary. We can gain a little by axing Hembree & Leon and maybe sign a cheap FA, but that's it.

 

Your site:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

It has JD at $23.75M for luxury tax. It's $22M because the AVV is $22M. They are also counting Cashner, and his $8M option will not be taken. That's just 2 mistakes I found while looking quickly.

 

Either way, take off Cashner and JBJ and they'd have us near the $208M line, just as I said.

 

 

 

 

Actually that was what I said about JBJ and Cashner if you check back over the posts. Like I said you do not need to trade Betts so what are you arguing with me about anyway?

[moonslav59]

Actually that was what I said about JBJ and Cashner if you check back over the posts. Like I said you do not need to trade Betts so what are you arguing with me about anyway?

 

I never said we had to trade Betts. Never.

 

I mentioned trading Betts getting something good in return and then having his salary to spend for 2020, and that the FAs signed plus the return in trade might help us beyond 2020. It would be a deal for the future not 2020, but all would not be lost on 2020, if Bloom spends the $28M wisely. We reset in 2020, and then we look better in 2021 both financially and roster wise, since we can still bring Betts back either way.

 

You went off on me like I was nuts, and I wasn't even saying we should trade Betts, just that it is an option that would likely improve our longer term rebuild.

 

What are we arguing about?

 

(BTW, my eyesight is bad, and I did not see the minus sign on the $18M "cap space". My bad- sorry! That site is not far off.

 

We won't trade Cashner. We'll just not give him the $8M club option.)

[Elktonnick]

I never said we had to trade Betts. Never.

 

I mentioned trading Betts getting something good in return and then having his salary to spend for 2020, and that the FAs signed plus the return in trade might help us beyond 2020. It would be a deal for the future not 2020, but all would not be lost on 2020, if Bloom spends the $28M wisely. We reset in 2020, and then we look better in 2021 both financially and roster wise, since we can still bring Betts back either way.

 

You went off on me like I was nuts, and I wasn't even saying we should trade Betts, just that it is an option that would likely improve our longer term rebuild.

 

What are we arguing about?

 

(BTW, my eyesight is bad, and I did not see the minus sign on the $18M "cap space". My bad- sorry! That site is not far off.

 

We won't trade Cashner. We'll just not give him the $8M club option.)

 

I think we are all a bit too sensitive. Fan is short for fanatic so we all little nuts about our team. I think you and I are in the same place on Betts that is wait until July.

[S5Dewey]

Did the Sox make Lester the best offer when he was a free agent, only to get eschewed just because they dealt him?

 

I don't know. You tell me.

[moonslav59]

I think we are all a bit too sensitive. Fan is short for fanatic so we all little nuts about our team. I think you and I are in the same place on Betts that is wait until July.

 

I think the Sox will wait until July.

 

I want Betts here, but I'm on the fence about trading him now for something useful, signing some decent small cost FAs and then go for broke in 2021 by signing Betts back or some other big name player.

 

I'm more geared towards 2021 and beyond over 2020. I don't think our chances are that good for 2020. I realize the lost revenue coupled with trading Betts may make trading him this winter not happen, but I'm 50-50 on trading Betts this winter. I'm not sure we are exactly on the same page.

 

I would certainly look into trading Price and Eovaldi. I'd also look into trading JD. To me, JBJ is as good as gone, sadly.

 

I don't want the rebuild to be hampered or delayed, but I'd also like to see us be good in 2020. I'm not sure trying to have it both ways accomplishes much. I doubt we win in 2020, and keeping everybody may make rebuilding harder and longer.

[moonslav59]

I don't know. You tell me.

 

I think it was revealed the Cubs out bid us by a significant amount.

 

I'm not even sure he'd have come back had we matched it or topped it by $1M.

[S5Dewey]

I think it was revealed the Cubs out bid us by a significant amount.

 

I'm not even sure he'd have come back had we matched it or topped it by $1M.

 

Exactly. Once a team lets a player go the relationship is broken. Which is why I say if we let Mookie go he's gone for good.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. Once a team lets a player go the relationship is broken. Which is why I say if we let Mookie go he's gone for good.

 

Not always, but your point is well taken.

 

I'd offer Betts a #320M/10 year contract. That's no Lester low ball offer. That would not cause any hard feelings.

 

If he declines, like he likely would, I'd look for a good trade. If I found one, I'd tell him we want him back, but we are doing what we think is best for the club, and we'll be better in 2021, so look for another great offer next year. If he takes it the wrong way, so be it. If he gets a better offer in 2021, we'd probably have lost him anyways- trade or not.

 

It's a tough call. If I really felt like we'd have a much better chance at signing him by not trading him, I might swing to the no trade side. I'm like right on the fence, right now. The other thing that makes me second guess keeping him is that a $320M or more - 10 year deal is a big risk. I'd do it, but it's not a slam dunk good deal. I doubt we get him for less than $320M/10, unless he gets hurt or sucks in 2020.

 

I'm torn. I'm literally 50-50.

 

If we don't trade Betts, I'd try hard to trade Price and/or Eovaldi. If I can't move one, I'd look to deal JD before he opts out next winter. All this talk about how it would be a slap in the face to trade him, will it be a slap when he opts out after 2020? He will, unless he gets hurt badly or sucks in 2020.

 

Making no trades of big contracts will delay and reduce the quality of our rebuild.

 

[notin]

Such a deal would be for the Braves and not very good for Boston. Incarte injury history last year makes him problematic and the two pitchers are unlikely to be major league ready if at all in the near term.

 

Injury history? Last year was the first time. Inciarte played less than 130 games since 2014.

 

Kyle Wright has already made his MLB debut and was BA#39. Muller was in AA last year with a 3.14 ERA at age 21.

 

 

For one year of Betts, it’s actually a fair deal...

[Bellhorn04]

Peter Abraham's piece about JD not opting out says that JD's AAV for 2020 will now be 23.75 mill instead of 22 mill.

 

Which makes no sense whatsoever and which I believe is dead wrong.

[notin]

Exactly. Once a team lets a player go the relationship is broken. Which is why I say if we let Mookie go he's gone for good.

 

If Betts just wants the money, then why? He’s not going to eschew the Six if they make the top offer because he was traded away. Players return to former teams all the time...