The JD opt out

[moonslav59]

It does .The CWS may be desperate enough to really make this a special Reboot winter .I hope it happens in a week not a year .

 

I'd rather we trade JD and get something in return, but if he opts out it would be a positive step in the rebuilding process. It will hurt our chances for next year and maybe 2021 and 2022, too, but if Bloom spends the saved money wisely, maybe it won't hurt so much in the near future as losing JD seems to indicate.

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

I'd rather we trade JD and get something in return, but if he opts out it would be a positive step in the rebuilding process. It will hurt our chances for next year and maybe 2021 and 2022, too, but if Bloom spends the saved money wisely, maybe it won't hurt so much in the near future as losing JD seems to indicate.

 

 

Agree 100 moon

[Tedballgame]

I think his contract is tradeable. I also think they can get a hell of a prospect if they pay some of it down too

Absolutely right. Great post.

[Tedballgame]

I’m ok with jd leaving cos we need cap relief. But yes our lineup will miss him. Then again we have a farm system for a reason. Next man up!

There is nobody in the farm system who can give them what JDM gives them.

[Bellhorn04]

There is nobody in the farm system who can give them what JDM gives them.

 

Seriously.

[notin]

There is nobody in the farm system who can give them what JDM gives them.

 

There are almost no outfielders in the Sox farm system period. Yet the Sox are likely to trade Betts, non-tender Bradley, and might see JDM opt out. And people still want to trade Benintendi!!

 

If all of that happens, I strongly suggest a groundball pitching staff...

[Tedballgame]

There are almost no outfielders in the Sox farm system period. Yet the Sox are likely to trade Betts, non-tender Bradley, and might see JDM opt out. And people still want to trade Benintendi!!

 

If all of that happens, I strongly suggest a groundball pitching staff...

They have to keep Benintendi. I hope they dump JBJ for a cheaper alternative. Hopefully, somebody that can hit.

[moonslav59]

They have to keep Benintendi. I hope they dump JBJ for a cheaper alternative. Hopefully, somebody that can hit.

 

I'd rather we get someone who can field as well as JBJ.

[S5Dewey]

There are almost no outfielders in the Sox farm system period. Yet the Sox are likely to trade Betts, non-tender Bradley, and might see JDM opt out. And people still want to trade Benintendi!!

 

If all of that happens, I strongly suggest a groundball pitching staff...

 

This is what I was saying weeks ago - that if they're going to have an outfield that's even adequate they need to keep either JBJ or Betts.

[Tedballgame]

I'd rather we get someone who can field as well as JBJ.

JBJ's defense is great. We all know that. But him making over 10 million a year is not worth the offensive production he gives the Sox. There are cheaper alternatives out there who can field and hit. They may not field as well but they will provide more consistent hitting. Maybe they put Benintendi in center and get a LF that can hit.

[Slasher9]

They may not field as well but they will provide more consistent hitting. .

 

name one. unless by consistent you mean consistently suck and dont give at least the hot streaks that JBj gives.

as for beni in CF. no, please. he is an AWFUL cfer. dreadful even.

 

that said, if JD doesnt opt out, i fully expect JBj to be gone.

#defensematters

[moonslav59]

JBJ's defense is great. We all know that. But him making over 10 million a year is not worth the offensive production he gives the Sox. There are cheaper alternatives out there who can field and hit. They may not field as well but they will provide more consistent hitting. Maybe they put Benintendi in center and get a LF that can hit.

 

I'm not sure about "cheaper" who can field AND hit, but I know we can get someone who can field about as well as JBJ for maybe $2-3 or 4M.

 

Name someone we can sign for $10M that can field and hit as well as JBJ.

[moonslav59]

name one. unless by consistent you mean consistently suck and dont give at least the hot streaks that JBj gives.

as for beni in CF. no, please. he is an AWFUL cfer. dreadful even.

 

that said, if JD doesnt opt out, i fully expect JBj to be gone.

#defensematters

 

Agreed. No Beni in CF- PLEASE!

[notin]

JBJ batted 8th or 9th. If the Sox get another CF who doesn’t hit but bats 8th or 9th, I’m fine with it. The only issue with JBJ next year for the Sox is likely just his salary...

[notin]

I'm not sure about "cheaper" who can field AND hit, but I know we can get someone who can field about as well as JBJ for maybe $2-3 or 4M.

 

Name someone we can sign for $10M that can field and hit as well as JBJ.

 

Kevin Pillar, if the Giants decline his option...

[moonslav59]

Kevin Pillar, if the Giants decline his option...

 

He's not as good a hitter as JBJ.

 

JBJ: .738 (2019), .727 (last 3 yrs), .765 (last 5 yrs)

 

Pillar: .719 (2019), .711 (last 3 yrs), .705 (last 5 yrs)

 

It's close, but JBJ is better.

 

3 yr UZR/150:

 

JBJ 4.2

Pillar 2.8

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by moonslav59

[Tedballgame]

I'm not sure about "cheaper" who can field AND hit, but I know we can get someone who can field about as well as JBJ for maybe $2-3 or 4M.

 

Name someone we can sign for $10M that can field and hit as well as JBJ.

They aren't going to sign someone for 10M to take JBJ's place. They are cutting payroll. They will get a cheaper alternative. I would try to trade JBJ to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader. Bader is a really good CFer who hasn't hit yet but he is young and would be the type of guy to take a chance on. A change in scenery would do him good. He just needs confidence and the Green Monster. Bader is also cheap.

[moonslav59]

They aren't going to sign someone for 10M to take JBJ's place. They are cutting payroll. They will get a cheaper alternative. I would try to trade JBJ to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader. Bader is a really good CFer who hasn't hit yet but he is young and would be the type of guy to take a chance on. A change in scenery would do him good. He just needs confidence and the Green Monster. Bader is also cheap.

 

I agree, and I'm fine with us finding a cheap defensive whiz to play CF, even if he hits for a .650-.700 OPS.

[notin]

He's not as good a hitter as JBJ.

 

JBJ: .738 (2019), .727 (last 3 yrs), .765 (last 5 yrs)

 

Pillar: .719 (2019), .711 (last 3 yrs), .705 (last 5 yrs)

 

It's close, but JBJ is better.

 

3 yr UZR/150:

 

JBJ 4.2

Pillar 2.8

 

 

If you look at OPS+ over the last 3 years, Bradley has a 90 and Pillar has an 89. That’s pretty equal.

 

Anyway, Pillar’s option is like $9mill and no way SF exercises it. So he’ll be available for less.

 

And like I said, the Sox should just non-tender Bradley and re-sign him for less as a free agent...

[moonslav59]

If you look at OPS+ over the last 3 years, Bradley has a 90 and Pillar has an 89. That’s pretty equal.

 

Anyway, Pillar’s option is like $9mill and no way SF exercises it. So he’ll be available for less.

 

And like I said, the Sox should just non-tender Bradley and re-sign him for less as a free agent...

 

Well, I'm going on the assumption that JBJ is worth close to $10M on the open market, since there were rumors someone wants to trade for him.

 

Yes, if Pillar would get $7M or less on the open market, he's a better choice than JBJ at $10-11M. If they both cost the same, I'd choose JBJ. I still think JBJ has the potential to hit over .800 again. He did it twice. Pillar has never come close.

[harmony]

They aren't going to sign someone for 10M to take JBJ's place. They are cutting payroll. They will get a cheaper alternative. I would try to trade JBJ to the Cardinals for Harrison Bader. Bader is a really good CFer who hasn't hit yet but he is young and would be the type of guy to take a chance on. A change in scenery would do him good. He just needs confidence and the Green Monster. Bader is also cheap.

According to one website, Harrison Bader has a surplus value of $35.2 million and Jackie Bradley Jr. a surplus value of $1.8 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Edited October 29, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

Well, I'm going on the assumption that JBJ is worth close to $10M on the open market, since there were rumors someone wants to trade for him.

 

Yes, if Pillar would get $7M or less on the open market, he's a better choice than JBJ at $10-11M. If they both cost the same, I'd choose JBJ. I still think JBJ has the potential to hit over .800 again. He did it twice. Pillar has never come close.

 

Well, no one ever wanted to trade for Bradley when he was making that much. Reportedly DD shopped him heavily last winter with no takers. And DD was reportedly in a cost cutting mode where he also shopped Porcello and Bogaerts.

 

Now Bradley is more expensive with less control. Doubtful the Sox find takers

[moonslav59]

According to one website, Harrison Bader has a surplus value of $35.2 million and Jackie Bradley Jr. a surplus value of $1.8 million;

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Ig JBJ has a surplus value, then he must be worth more than his arb will award him.

 

I'm not saying I agree his open market value is that high, but I still think we'll trade him not non tender. (Close call.)

[moonslav59]

Well, no one ever wanted to trade for Bradley when he was making that much. Reportedly DD shopped him heavily last winter with no takers. And DD was reportedly in a cost cutting mode where he also shopped Porcello and Bogaerts.

 

Now Bradley is more expensive with less control. Doubtful the Sox find takers

 

I disagree. Every year, excpet maybe last year, teams wanted JBJ.

 

I think teams wanted him, but DD was asking for too much in return.

[notin]

I disagree. Every year, excpet maybe last year, teams wanted JBJ.

 

I think teams wanted him, but DD was asking for too much in return.

 

But Bradley was always cheaper and with more control...

[moonslav59]

But Bradley was always cheaper and with more control...

 

Yes, but they knew his arb costs were going up. It's not like he was cheap in 2019.

 

I'm pretty sure people wanted him last winter- just not as much as DD hoped.

[moonslav59]

Sox not going to offer JD another contract.

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/10/jd-martinezs-opt-out-boston-red-sox-havent-made-new-contract-offer-have-5-day-exclusive-window-at-start-of-mlb-free-agency.html?fbclid=IwAR0Xjb8WmiGPp90t_frrxKUA2VWQjZYZ9co1blMqx9oswNTdZdhHME49AM0

[harmony]

Ig JBJ has a surplus value, then he must be worth more than his arb will award him.

 

I'm not saying I agree his open market value is that high, but I still think we'll trade him not non tender. (Close call.)

The same website suggests that one year of Jackie Bradley has the same surplus value as three years of 31-year-old St. Louis DH-in-waiting Jose Martinez, who has a set 2020 salary of $2.125 million plus up to $1 million in incentives.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

If J.D. Martinez leaves ...😊

[moonslav59]

The same website suggests that one year of Jackie Bradley has the same surplus value as three years of 31-year-old St. Louis DH-in-waiting Jose Martinez, who has a set 2020 salary of $2.125 million plus up to $1 million in incentives.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

If J.D. Martinez leaves ...😊

 

Are you making a point?

[notin]

Yes, but they knew his arb costs were going up. It's not like he was cheap in 2019.

 

I'm pretty sure people wanted him last winter- just not as much as DD hoped.

 

But it's like a long term deal, and the value is greater at the lower salaries.

 

If Bradley is worth 2 fWAR per yer, then he is viewed as being more worth it when you get 6 fWAR for $24mill than if you get 2 fWAR for $10mill....