Mookie Betts: Trade or Extend

[Behindenemylines]

I think what JD does may determine the course that the Sox take with Mookie. So it’s hard to make a class just yet. You also have think about the health of Sale and Price. If there is any doubt about their health in 2020 then the Sox are not contending and I would start the reset.

[moonslav59]

I think what JD does may determine the course that the Sox take with Mookie. So it’s hard to make a class just yet. You also have think about the health of Sale and Price. If there is any doubt about their health in 2020 then the Sox are not contending and I would start the reset.

 

Even if JD decides to stay, we might be better off trading him, so it's not all about his choice.

[Spudboy]

Move his ass now to maximize return.

 

I don't see the Sox pulling off a 1 for 5 unless it total shlock they get in return. But they should be able to get more than a comp pick.

 

How many teams are going to be willing to spluge on the trade just to get a player that will demand ove 30 mil and a very long contratc?

 

I love the kid but he does not want to be here. His game is based on speed and he is puney. The type of player you might expect to break down.

 

The Sox also f***ed up by going to arb on him. That must have left a bad taste in his mouth.

[oldtimer]

A good reminder of the predicament the Sox are in is that we have what look to be 4 underperforming contracts on the books in Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Pedroia for $92 Mil. The comp and benefits run about $15 mil and it makes sense to leave a little buffer for mid season moves. I would put that at $6 mil. I believe 2020 is and should be the year of the reset at $208 Mil or less (enough to be certain of reset. That leaves us $95 Mil for the rest of our 40 man and we know Bogaerts is making $20 for the next 6 years and deserves it.

 

This reminder should frame our thinking for trades, FA's, outrighting etc. The JDM decision will come soon and that $23 Mil will impact what we can and cannot do with acquiring starting pitching and top notch relief pitching. It appears we will need to find some of our team from low cost players in our farm system. While our farm is weak, it doesn't mean all the players are hopeless. Our rule 5 players such as Dalbec and Chatham need to be brought onto the 40 man. Chavis has solid possibilities and Beni needs to bounce back but is is likely he will.

 

Short of enumerating all the likely players for the 2020 roster, I will say what we need is a good hard headed GM who will stick to the game plan and make the moves which are necessary to return the club to competitiveness. By the way, this has to be done while navigating Price for 3 years, Sale for 5 years, Eovaldi ffor 3 years and Pedroia for 2 years.

[moonslav59]

Move his ass now to maximize return.

 

I don't see the Sox pulling off a 1 for 5 unless it total shlock they get in return. But they should be able to get more than a comp pick.

 

How many teams are going to be willing to spluge on the trade just to get a player that will demand ove 30 mil and a very long contratc?

 

I love the kid but he does not want to be here. His game is based on speed and he is puney. The type of player you might expect to break down.

 

The Sox also f***ed up by going to arb on him. That must have left a bad taste in his mouth.

 

1) We don't know if Betts doesn't want to be in Boston.

2) Betts did not want to sign a contract. It was more him who forced the arbs not the team.

3) His defense is helped by his speed, but his offense not so much. He has extremely quick twitch reflexes. Do we have any evidence how well or poorly that ages?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think he’s gonna hit for awhile, but his 8WAR baseline is far more linked to his speed and defense than his hitting.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I just don't see any club giving up multiple valuable prospects for one year of Betts... especially not a package that would equal the value of Mookie Betts in his prime in a salary drive season. His 2020 campaign just might put a team on top, and I'm hoping that team is the Red Sox. The first thing I'd do is find a way to dump Price -- eating half his contract and adding a minor leaguer with promise to sweeten the deal; his act has to be a downer for public relations and I almost think his actions (like calling a presser to dis Eck) are a deliberate way to force their hand.

[moonslav59]

I think he’s gonna hit for awhile, but his 8WAR baseline is far more linked to his speed and defense than his hitting.

 

I doubt his base running added much to the 8 WAR baseline, and although his defense is certainly helped by his speed, it's not everything, and besides, it's not like we should expect Betts's speed to diminish all that much over the next 8-10 years.

 

His offense has been boosted by his quick reaction times, power and getting on base skills.

 

His BB totals have risen steadily: 46, 49, 77, 81, 97

 

He's hit 29 or more HRs in 3 of his last 4 seasons.

 

He just turned 27. Many of his next contract years will be in prime or near prime. This is why I like the idea of re-signing him (maybe after we trade him).

[moonslav59]

I just don't see any club giving up multiple valuable prospects for one year of Betts... especially not a package that would equal the value of Mookie Betts in his prime in a salary drive season. His 2020 campaign just might put a team on top, and I'm hoping that team is the Red Sox. The first thing I'd do is find a way to dump Price -- eating half his contract and adding a minor leaguer with promise to sweeten the deal; his act has to be a downer for public relations and I almost think his actions (like calling a presser to dis Eck) are a deliberate way to force their hand.

 

Teams have given up multiple prospects for 2 month rentals of worse ability than Betts.

 

You may not think we get back what one year of Betts is worth, but we will get very good value back- maybe 2-3 very good prospects or 1-2 excellent ones and a throw in.

[notin]

Teams have given up multiple prospects for 2 month rentals of worse ability

 

While true, none of those 2 month rentals were making $27-30 million.

 

Of course, none also had draft pick compensation...

[moonslav59]

While true, none of those 2 month rentals were making $27-30 million.

 

Of course, none also had draft pick compensation...

 

Yes, the $27M will keep a lot of teams out of the running, but it's still a lower price than a FA of his stature.

[d-money]

The Sox need to stop acting like they’re a small market. How will you replace these players? The Yankees have some terrible contracts yet they will go out there and likely sign gerrit cole which is ridiculous.

[moonslav59]

The Sox need to stop acting like they’re a small market. How will you replace these players? The Yankees have some terrible contracts yet they will go out there and likely sign gerrit cole which is ridiculous.

 

They also reset the tax this year.

 

So did the Dodgers.

 

Short memory.

[notin]

The Sox need to stop acting like they’re a small market. How will you replace these players? The Yankees have some terrible contracts yet they will go out there and likely sign gerrit cole which is ridiculous.

 

There's a big difference between resetting the tax penalties and acting like a small market team. In fact, they are opposite behaviors...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any Betts trade would have to bring back major league ready prospects. For example, to LA for Lux, Verdugo and May -- young players that could slot right into the lineup and rotation. Of course, the Dodgers would have to take Price, too (subsidized by Boston). This would be the quickest way to help lower payroll, change the culture a bit and stay competitive. The Sox can't afford to just take back 19 and 20-year olds that are a few years away from the bigs. We already have those guys.

[harmony]

Any Betts trade would have to bring back major league ready prospects. For example, to LA for Lux, Verdugo and May -- young players that could slot right into the lineup and rotation. Of course, the Dodgers would have to take Price, too (subsidized by Boston). This would be the quickest way to help lower payroll, change the culture a bit and stay competitive. The Sox can't afford to just take back 19 and 20-year olds that are a few years away from the bigs. We already have those guys.

According to one website, Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $85.1 million, Alex Verdugo $55.8 million and Dustin May $63.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $51.4 million and David Price a value of a negative $69.9 million.

[notin]

Any Betts trade would have to bring back major league ready prospects. For example, to LA for Lux, Verdugo and May -- young players that could slot right into the lineup and rotation. Of course, the Dodgers would have to take Price, too (subsidized by Boston). This would be the quickest way to help lower payroll, change the culture a bit and stay competitive. The Sox can't afford to just take back 19 and 20-year olds that are a few years away from the bigs. We already have those guys.

 

Not getting Lux or Verdugo or May, let alone all threes.

 

I see something more along the lines of Drew Waters and Touki Toussaint...

[Bellhorn04]

 

You just want those crazy names...

[notin]

You just want those crazy names...

 

I want Ian Anderson, just so we can pair him with Brian Johnson and have some serious rock and roll on that pitching staff..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

According to one website, Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $85.1 million, Alex Verdugo $55.8 million and Dustin May $63.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $51.4 million and David Price a value of a negative $69.9 million.

 

Thanks, it wasn't so much a trade proposal as an example of the kind of package the Sox should ask for for someone entering his prime on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In other words, don't settle for Fred Lynn for the twilight of Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana right after he blew out his arm.

 

Player value considerations include actual WAR and salary estimates (ie. the cost of Betts, the savings on pre-arb guys), but projected WAR for prospects is more dubious. And only the teams know how much they value a player's marketability... my 8-year-old owns six different Mookie shirts. In that regard, Price is definitely a negative; it doesn't matter if he has friends in the workplace if he devalues the company product in a waning industry via media spats, getting shelled by the Yankees and taking five minutes to throw every pitch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thread speculation here and elsewhere of Bloom getting hired as maybe the guy assigned to trade Betts is stressful. To help both the Red Sox and Boston fans ease their concerns about the aging effects of "undersized" and "speed" players, here are total b-WARs and yearly averages for the prime 27-32 ages of recent Hall of Famers listed under 5 foot, 10 inches in height: Tim Raines 26.4, 4.4; Pudge Rodriguez 28.3, 4.7; Kirby Puckett 31.1, 5.2; Joe Morgan 53.4, 8.9. Also included is Dustin Pedroia 31.7, 5.3; Irod and Pedey weren't feared base-stealers (though Pedroia actually swiped more bags than Puckett), but both made their livings with quick feet.

 

There is absolutely no reason to expect Mookie Betts' overall value not to average between 4.5 and 5 WAR for the next six seasons, which would give him a career total commensurate with the average outfielder enshrined in Cooperstown. Open the vaults and pay this future Hall of Famer through his prime!

Edited October 25, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
error

[moonslav59]

According to one website, Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $85.1 million, Alex Verdugo $55.8 million and Dustin May $63.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $51.4 million and David Price a value of a negative $69.9 million.

 

So, maybe we package Betts and Price in a trade to the Dodgers for the next Ruby de la Rosa.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thread speculation here and elsewhere of Bloom getting hired as maybe the guy assigned to trade Betts is stressful. To help both the Red Sox and Boston fans ease their concerns about the aging effects of "undersized" and "speed" players, here are total b-WARs and yearly averages for the prime 27-32 ages of recent Hall of Famers listed under 5 foot, 10 inches in height: Tim Raines 26.4, 4.4; Pudge Rodriguez 28.3, 4.7; Kirby Puckett 31.1, 5.2; Joe Morgan 53.4, 8.9. Also included is Dustin Pedroia 31.7, 5.3; Irod and Pedey weren't feared base-stealers (though Pedroia actually swiped more bags than Puckett), but both made their livings with quick feet.

 

There is absolutely no reason to expect Mookie Betts' overall value not to average between 4.5 and 5 WAR for the next six seasons, which would give him a career total commensurate with the average outfielder enshrined in Cooperstown. Open the vaults and pay this future Hall of Famer through his prime!

 

Here is the deal with Mookie Betts. Mookie is 27 yrs old and well within his prime. Nobody is saying he won't be great for his last year under contract with the sox. He also is adamant about seeing how much he is worth on the open market. So you aren't going to sign him beyond 2020 before he hits the market. So that point is entirely moot. You are talking about giving a contract to a guy who will be 28 yrs old on opening day of the first season of his new contract. The consensus on here is that most of you guys are willing to back up the Brinks truck and pay Mookie the most money. That will likely be in the 10 year rage at a lower AAV or at a much higher rate for 8 years. Let's look at your comps a little more closely for a 10 year deal.

 

Tim Raines

year 28 season had a 6.7 WAR

year 29 season had a 3.3 WAR

year 30 season had a 3.9WAR

year 31 season had a 2.4 WAR

year 32 season had a 2.7 WAR

year 33 season had a 5.5 WAR

year 34 season had a 3.3 WAR

 

The following 3 seasons combined for 4WAR total. That is 31.8WAR over 10 seasons. Only 2 seasons was he All Star caliber (WAR 5+), the rest he was simply good and the final 3 he was replacement level. Would you be willing to spend 10 seasons having him be good for 5, All-Star level for 2 and replacement level for 3? Let's look at others

 

Pudge Rodriguez

year 28 season had a 6.8 WAR

year 29 season had a 4.7 WAR

year 30 season had a 5.0 WAR

year 31 season had a 3.3 WAR

year 32 season had a 4.5 WAR

year 33 season had a 4.7 WAR

year 34 season had a 3.2 WAR

 

The next 3 seasons, he had 5.2WAR total. Pudge held up well to the test of time. Pudge also played during the juiced ball era and was rumored to be doing roids. He also played a position where being shorter may have given him advantages as he was in a squat all day long. He is not as good a comparison as Raines was as Raines was also an OFer relying on speed

 

Kirby Puckett

7.1 in his first year. 4.7, 2.4, 3.8, 5.9. Half his contract was good. Defense fell off a cliff thereafter than his career ended with glaucoma. 6.4 total his last 3 years and then retirement.

 

Morgan was a much different era. Pedroia is the cautionary tale. The injury bug creeping in is where you lose the value. What you expect from a 10 yr deal with Betts is 28-32 he is prime, maybe has one bad season mixed in due to injury or an off year. 32-34 he can be a good player, 3 WAR ish as the speed fades. 35 he is a replacement level defender who can slug.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, maybe we package Betts and Price in a trade to the Dodgers for the next Ruby de la Rosa.

 

The question is, are there teams out there with cash to burn and a thin farm who would like to get Betts for a year and are willing to eat a bad contract for a player that still has a little value in Price? The Dodgers wont be that team.

[moonslav59]

The question is, are there teams out there with cash to burn and a thin farm who would like to get Betts for a year and are willing to eat a bad contract for a player that still has a little value in Price? The Dodgers wont be that team.

 

No, they won't. My post was in jest.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I appreciate the breakdown of the comps but in no way are they predictive of a breakdown in Betts. Puckett's eyes would be bad luck for a player of any height. Raines may have lost an edge getting hooked on recreational drugs. People may have been smaller in Morgan's century, but he was known as Little Joe and also hands-down the best MLBer for an entire decade. To go back even further, Willie Mays -- listed as 5'10, 170 -- posted 58.5 WAR from age 33 through the end of his career. I'm not saying Betts is another Mays, but some professional writers have made those 5-tool, boyish-enthusiasm comps; when I first saw Mookie's swing, with his inhumanly quick wrists, I actually thought Aaron... and The Hammer was another player without huge muscles who starred a long, long time. Mays and Aaron were small compared to contemporaries like Frank Robinson, McCovey, Stargell, etc. Why can't Betts be another Mays or Aaron, not in pure slugging, but longevity? Granted, Trout is built like a linebacker and you'd think he'd be more durable, but he's been hurt the past two years, as have Stanton and Judge. Maybe body types aren't as important in projections as a player's make-up and pedigree. Maybe wiry sinew is more supple than bulk. Before he was a star, the Sox held a spring training athletic competition where they split one side of the roster vs. another -- I remember reading all these guys with rings (Papi, Pedey, etc.) wanted to be on Betts' team, because he was such a better all-around athlete. I think every team accepts the fact that when they sign someone long term that they're actually paying for the first two-thirds of a contract (hopefully). Boston can't possibly replace Betts, and the only thing they know for sure is that they have him now. Generational talent doesn't grow on a farm (team, ha), and the Sox got lucky with a 5th round pick. If they trade him, someone else will get lucky.

[Swiharts Ghost]

So, maybe we package Betts and Price in a trade to the Dodgers for the next Ruby de la Rosa.

 

Bwaaaaahaaaaa lol sooooooo clutch .

[Bellhorn04]

I've come to a conclusion...the idea of trading Mookie makes me nauseous.

[OH FOY]

Mays was built like a NFL Halfback, that dude was one of the strongest ballplayers ever. 170lbs, looked like 200lbs, that's what muscle does, I saw him in Shea at batting practice at the Cage, (they used to let you into Park 3 hours before game time to watch that), Mookie is not even close to that built.

As Mays got older he got slower too. Mays was a pure wrist hitter too. Very powerful wrists.

Hit one of the longest HR's I ever seen at Shea, off Seaver.

Edited November 7, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie has super quick twitch muscles and, I assume, very strong wrists and forearms. That's where he gets his power from.