A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

If I'm the Dodgers, I trade Ruiz over Cartaya.

 

Granted, I don't have as much info to go on as they do. But it seems to be everything written about these two players, Cartaya is the superior defender, and Ruiz stock is actually now what it was when he was at the lower levels. Also, with Will Smith on the parent club, Cartaya's timeline makes him more likely to reach the majors when Smith is reaching free agency. (That does operate on the assumption he ever reaches them at all.) Ruiz, on the other hand, is already in the upper minors, and while he is certainly more likely to reach the majors than Cartaya, he finds himself blocked at his primary position.

 

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

 

23.4 Ruiz

 

15.4 Cartaya

 

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

[mvp 78]

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

 

23.4 Ruiz

 

15.4 Cartaya

 

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

 

Vaz is under contract, but he's had health and performance issues before. He's no sure bet.

[notin]

I don't know much about either one, but the trade value site has this:

 

23.4 Ruiz

 

15.4 Cartaya

 

Since Vaz is under team control for a while, Cartaya might match up better with the timing of need.

 

I would think so.

 

And Ruiz is not the same as he once was. He was #1 on the Dodgers system before 2019, but he has fallen down the ranks. Reportedly his hard hit rate dropped significantly this past year, and his defense is a work in progress, but nothing horrible.

 

Cartaya impressed more, but he is younger and much, much further away.

 

But if I'm the Dodgers, I am less likely to ever need Ruiz. Ruiz is still a good prospect, but maybe not what he once was. And the emergence of Will Smith made him superfluous and therefore should be more available in any trade...

[moonslav59]

Vaz is under contract, but he's had health and performance issues before. He's no sure bet.

 

Yes.

 

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

 

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

[harmony]

Yes.

 

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

 

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

Kevin Plawecki remains under team control for three arbitration seasons.

[moonslav59]

Kevin Plawecki remains under team control for three arbitration seasons.

 

Thanks for the correction.

[mvp 78]

Yes.

 

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

 

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

 

Not sure Plawecki factors in at all. That's getting too far in the weeds IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes.

 

His offense is literally up and down year to year. His defense was supposed to be good, but his CERA was horrible compared to Leon.

 

Plawecki is signed for 2 years, so I still think Cartaya might match up better, but if Ruiz is the real deal, we could trade Vaz.

 

Did you ever see a supposedly good defensive catcher miss so many catches on pitches than last year (and I'm not counting Tek or anyone else who couldn't catch a knuckleball)?

 

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls -- because, to quote the infamous article "illegal sign stealing, particularly through advanced technology, is everywhere."

 

...you know, the story that got three managers fired (but none anywhere else -- case closed -- with not even an investigation of the previous team we know too well in this next quote: "One was a hitter who was struggling at the plate and had benefited from sign stealing with a previous team, according to club sources; another was a coach who wanted to help." I won't name names, either, but both of those guys are now unemployed, while "the previous team" is favored by the planet to win it all this year.

[moonslav59]

Did you ever see a supposedly good defensive catcher miss so many catches on pitches than last year (and I'm not counting Tek or anyone else who couldn't catch a knuckleball)?

 

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls -- because, to quote the infamous article "illegal sign stealing, particularly through advanced technology, is everywhere."

 

...you know, the story that got three managers fired (but none anywhere else -- case closed -- with not even an investigation of the previous team we know too well in this next quote: "One was a hitter who was struggling at the plate and had benefited from sign stealing with a previous team, according to club sources; another was a coach who wanted to help." I won't name names, either, but both of those guys are now unemployed, while "the previous team" is favored by the planet to win it all this year.

 

He was certainly "off" last year. His 9 PBs doesn't look right, but 55 WPs were way more than any other year.

PB+ WP

24 in 458 innings 2014 (.052)

22 in 439 in 2016 (.050)

34 in 771 in 2017 (.044)

32 in 604 in 2018 (.053)

64 in 918 in 2019 (.070)

 

 

[notin]

Thanks for the correction.

 

Or not

[moonslav59]

Or not

 

Brutal or not.

[Slasher9]

I honestly have to wonder if all the panic about constantly changing signs caused more cross-ups, wild pitches and passed balls

 

.

 

this is a great point. bet there is some truth to this.

[Bellhorn04]

this is a great point. bet there is some truth to this.

 

I'd say no question. Not even Gary Sanchez can be as much of a stunned bunny as he looked on a lot of pitches last year.

[Michigan adam]

If given the choice, would you rather trade Mookie AND Price to get pool of prospects C(dodgers), Mookie alone for pool of prospects B(Dodgers) or Mookie alone for Pool of prospects A plus myers(SD) and not get under the threshold. Obviously A>B>C. I think I take Pool C to empty the salary commitment and allow them to rebuild more quickly out of FAgency next year. I would focus on higher talent, further away prospects if possible. Suffer through a year with holes(maybe take on a couple 1 year deals for short money to patch holes), go after a couple of the bigger FA's next year after reset AND move the long term commitment to price...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If given the choice, would you rather trade Mookie AND Price to get pool of prospects C(dodgers), Mookie alone for pool of prospects B(Dodgers) or Mookie alone for Pool of prospects A plus myers(SD) and not get under the threshold. Obviously A>B>C. I think I take Pool C to empty the salary commitment and allow them to rebuild more quickly out of FAgency next year. I would focus on higher talent, further away prospects if possible. Suffer through a year with holes(maybe take on a couple 1 year deals for short money to patch holes), go after a couple of the bigger FA's next year after reset AND move the long term commitment to price...

 

If Mookie is gone, Price has to go -- but not necessarily in the same deal. A Mookie trade is a white flag on 2020, and if they're committed to changing the culture, next on the hit list has to be Price -- the anti-Betts as far as embarrassing the Red Sox with constant, bitter PR. Wipe it clean, Chaim.

[moonslav59]

If Mookie is gone, Price has to go -- but not necessarily in the same deal. A Mookie trade is a white flag on 2020, and if they're committed to changing the culture, next on the hit list has to be Price -- the anti-Betts as far as embarrassing the Red Sox with constant, bitter PR. Wipe it clean, Chaim.

 

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

[notin]

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

 

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

 

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

[moonslav59]

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

 

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

 

We’d probably still be pretty good with verdugo, Myers & Quantrill and no Betts & Price. Wait to the deadline on the others.

It begs the question on who are our sell now stock highest now candidates? I say, Workman, Walden, Chavis & Duran.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe they are not punting 2020.

 

Bloom has built teams that do well after dealing away veterans before. He made the post-season without Chris Archer, for example...

 

Yes, I think Bloom has been given the dual assignment of getting under the cap and fielding a competitive team.

 

It's a lot to ask, but he just might be up to it.

[Kimmi]

I agree, but why stop at Price? If we are punting 2020, then let’s trade Workman and maybe Barnes, JD and Eovaldi- maybe at the deadline.

 

Trading Mookie does not mean we are punting the season.

 

Trading Mookie and Price probably does mean we're punting, though that would remain to be seen.

 

If we are punting, then it would make sense to trade whoever will not help us in 2021 and beyond.

 

The team will be competitive this year. In Bloom, I trust.

[harmony]

Trading Mookie does not mean we are punting the season.

 

Trading Mookie and Price probably does mean we're punting, though that would remain to be seen.

 

If we are punting, then it would make sense to trade whoever will not help us in 2021 and beyond.

 

The team will be competitive this year. In Bloom, I trust.

What qualifies as "competitive" for a franchise that has advanced to the postseason four times in the past decade, capturing two World Series titles, and winning a combined one game over the other two postseason trips?

 

The Red Sox and their fans have survived a wide range of outcomes.

[notin]

What qualifies as "competitive" for a franchise that has advanced to the postseason four times in the past decade, capturing two World Series titles, and winning a combined one game over the other two postseason trips?

 

The Red Sox and their fans have survived a wide range of outcomes.

 

Beating the Yankees...

[kenmeister]

If we trade Betts & Price and don't get any major league players in return, what free agents are available to plug the outfield and starting pitching spots?

[mvp 78]

If we trade Betts & Price and don't get any major league players in return, what free agents are available to plug the outfield and starting pitching spots?

 

Puig

[moonslav59]

Denyi Reyes optioned to make room for Moreland.

[Kimmi]

What qualifies as "competitive" for a franchise that has advanced to the postseason four times in the past decade, capturing two World Series titles, and winning a combined one game over the other two postseason trips?

 

The Red Sox and their fans have survived a wide range of outcomes.

 

Making the postseason. It may be as a wildcard, which I know some people think doesn't count, but that means we'll be one of the 5 best teams in the AL, even if we trade Mookie.

[jacksonianmarch]

Making the postseason. It may be as a wildcard, which I know some people think doesn't count, but that means we'll be one of the 5 best teams in the AL, even if we trade Mookie.

 

Depends on what you get for Mookie. If you can get another starter and a replacement for Mookie, your lineup will still be deep and you wont have a minus starter in there should you have an injury or deal Price. Stripling has been a 2WAR starter the last 2 seasons. Johnson and Velazquez gave you 0 WAR as the 5th starter. I do wonder if the sox actually had a minus WAR in games not started by Price, Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi and ERod. That means you add to an area of weakness. Now, Verdugo looks like he could be a 4WAR type of player. If the sox get Stripling and Verdugo plus anything else, then they are recalibrating their WAR. Will the team WAR go down? Maybe not. As a matter of fact, the offense may suffer slightly, but the pitching may be helped considerably.

 

As it stands right now, I think the sox are a contender for the 2nd WC, but not a strong one. Dealing Betts and getting any now pitching might give the sox enough contingencies to suppress runs allowed and push the sox closer to contention for that second WC spot

[Kimmi]

Depends on what you get for Mookie. If you can get another starter and a replacement for Mookie, your lineup will still be deep and you wont have a minus starter in there should you have an injury or deal Price. Stripling has been a 2WAR starter the last 2 seasons. Johnson and Velazquez gave you 0 WAR as the 5th starter. I do wonder if the sox actually had a minus WAR in games not started by Price, Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi and ERod. That means you add to an area of weakness. Now, Verdugo looks like he could be a 4WAR type of player. If the sox get Stripling and Verdugo plus anything else, then they are recalibrating their WAR. Will the team WAR go down? Maybe not. As a matter of fact, the offense may suffer slightly, but the pitching may be helped considerably.

 

As it stands right now, I think the sox are a contender for the 2nd WC, but not a strong one. Dealing Betts and getting any now pitching might give the sox enough contingencies to suppress runs allowed and push the sox closer to contention for that second WC spot

 

I really don't disagree with most of what you said, though I think the Sox are a strong contender for the at least the 2nd WC.

 

IMO, the Sox can take a hit on offense and still be very good offensively. It's going to come down to how healthy our starting pitchers are this season. I am confident that if we trade Mookie, the return will be sufficient enough to keep the team in contention.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’ve got to get a big league ready starter in a deal for Mookie. Your lineup is deep enough to take the hit especially if Verdugo is the Betts replacement, but your made of glass rotation has a s*** starter at #5 and literally zero contingencies heading into ST. You’ve got to have a 6th and 7th option.

[Station 13]

Trading Betts ends any shot of contending in 2020, but opens up with the reset. if they can dump Price somehow that is a win today and tomorrow.