A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

Truck day is the last call before ST. You really should have a manager and a plan in place by ST

 

The Sox had both those things last year and how did that turn out?

[mvp 78]

Truck day is the last call before ST. You really should have a manager and a plan in place by ST

 

The plan is to hire internally. The next manager will already be down in Fort Myers when the players start showing up.

 

Honestly, the only difference right now is that players would report to a bench coach rather than a manager. This is supposed to be more concerning that getting under a salary tax and fielding a team?

[jacksonianmarch]

Seems like the Pads were just interested in jettisoning Myers' salary?

 

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

[notin]

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

 

That's one of the most commonly floated trade suggestions on this site, for all the reason you cited, along with the Padres getting a 2fWAR starter for a net cost $9mill per year for the next 3 years.

 

In fact, once before when I floated this same proposal, you questioned why San Diego would be interested...

Edited January 27, 2020 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

That's one of the most commonly floated trade suggestions on this site, for all the reason you cited, along with the Padres getting a 2fWAR starter for a net cost $9mill per year for the next 3 years.

 

In fact, once before when I floated this same proposal, you questioned why San Diego would be interested...

 

I floated it wondering why the Padres would take on $17 mil more per season for Price. But when I looked at the amount owed, it is more a lux tax fudge and really only $8 mil more per year for the Pads

[moonslav59]

I floated it wondering why the Padres would take on $17 mil more per season for Price. But when I looked at the amount owed, it is more a lux tax fudge and really only $8 mil more per year for the Pads

 

Yes, but the tax saving to the Sox is much bigger. That's why a deal involving Price or Eovaldi for Myers makes sense, even if we pitch in a few million. (Betts or no Betts.)

[mvp 78]

Maybe a Price for Myers deal works?

 

Do you have moon on ignore?

[moonslav59]

Do you have moon on ignore?

 

LOL.

 

notin and I have been discussing this for ages. It looks too good to both teams to be ignored.

 

If we make Betts part of the deal, I can't see how SD can say no.

 

The foundations....

 

Betts & Price for Myers, Patino & Campusano

 

Betts & Eovaldi for Myers, Lucchesi & Campusano

 

We can add Workman or cash, if needed.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

Fangraphs ZIPS projection article for the Sox is up.

[mvp 78]

Interesting note about Casas from the ZIPS projection:

 

ZiPS does like Triston Casas, and in terms of projected career WAR remaining, he’s the sixth ranked first baseman among the 20 teams that have had their ZiPS writeups so far, behind Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Bell.

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

Fangraphs ZIPS projection article for the Sox is up.

 

5.0 Sale seems encouraging, but the article says "I'd take the under."

 

3.3 ERod

 

3.0 Price (WOW!)

 

[mvp 78]

They can do that without Betts. Like many on here have suggested, the Padres need pitching. Maybe a Price for Myers deal works? Myers' contract is real interesting. He signed a 6 yr $83 mil deal, but it was really two deals baked into one. He got a $15 mil signing bonus broken up over the 6 years, so $2.5 mil a year. His first 3 years, his salary was $7 mil TOTAL. So with the $7.5 mil in signing bonus and $7 mil in salary, he was paid only $14.5 mil over the first 3 years of the deal. The rest of the deal, Myers is gonna make BANK. We are talking $68.5 mil over those three seasons, including the $1 mil buyout of his 7th year option. What makes him appealing to the sox is the $14 mil AAV. The sox could even kick Price, OTOH, is costing $93 mil over those final 3 seasons at $31 mil AAV. The sox would get $17 mil over AAV savings per year while only seeing an outlay savings of $25 mil

 

Paddack

Richards

Davies

Lucchesi

Lamet

Quantril (spot starter)

 

Seems pretty good for the Padres to me.

[mvp 78]

I thought the article below was an interesting read, so I highlighted what I thought were more important points without just copy and pasting random sentences.

 

Benny did struggle a bit last year and maybe and uptick in his hitting can offset the loss of Betts somewhat (especially if Verdugo comes back).

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/1/30/21114678/boston-red-sox-season-preview-2020-andrew-benintendi

 

The Big Question: Is Andrew Benintendi’s 2019 strikeout rate the new normal?

For the last few years, the thing with Andrew Benintendi has been his power. What I mean by “the thing,” of course, is the thing that we have most complained about. Benintendi was the top prospect in baseball before he got to the majors, and with that obviously comes with huge expectations. He has been good for two of his four years in the majors and about average in the other two. A consistent factor hanging over said performance has been the lack of standout power, particularly in his good years where it’s held him back from being great.

 

At this point, though, I think I’m kind of coming to terms with the fact that Benintendi might just not develop that power. That’s not to say he can’t — I certainly think he can be a 20-homer hitter, at least — but that it’s not worth focusing on that and only that year in and year out. Benintendi, at his best, has enough skills to be a very good hitter without hitting the ball over the fence. In 2018, for example, he finished with a 122 wRC+ with only 16 homers.

 

Last year, though, that wRC+ fell to just an exactly average 100, which is both not great for a left fielder nor for someone with his pedigree. The power was part of that, too, as he hit only 13 homers and put up a .165 Isolated Power in a year when power was booming across baseball. What stands out more to me than the power, however, is the plate discipline.

 

This has long been the best part of Benintendi’s game at the plate, as he’s been able to control the strike zone and use that to his advantage to get good pitches to hit and spray line drives all over the field. Last year, his walk rate fell to 9.6 percent, a good rate but a full percentage point below his previous two seasons. His strikeout rate, meanwhile, jumped up to 22.8 percent, about seven percentage points higher than 2018 and about six higher than 2017. It’s that that I want to focus on today.

 

 

I said above that Benintendi can be good even without standout power, and it’s the ability to make contact that makes it possible. He was able to stay afloat at times in 2019 because his hit tool is good enough and he can turn batted balls into hits very well, but the ceiling is severely limited if he’s striking out like this unless there is more power. Last year at this time, I wondered about what Benintendi would look like if he sold out for more power. I don’t know if that’s what he was doing, but if it is, A) it didn’t work and I hated it.

 

Looking into the issues a little more, there were a few interesting points I want to touch on, starting with the obvious. Benintendi swung and missed a lot more. In fact, he swung a lot more, which may lend some credence to that idea of selling out for power. Per Baseball Savant, his swing rate jumped from 46 percent to 51 percent while the rate of pitches he saw in the zone fell from 48 percent to 46 percent. Predictably, a big part of his increased swinging strike rate came on pitches out of the zone.

 

Also predictably, after his good 2018 he also saw fewer fastballs, which makes sense. Pitchers aren’t going to be eager to feed a good hitter a bunch of fastballs. Also, it’s a lot harder to lay off breaking ball or offspeed pitch than a fastball. At least, that is what one would think. Interestingly, the swing charts don’t really reflect that with Benintendi. Look at the pitches he was chasing in 2019 compared to 2018.

 

There was a big jump in pitches down and in, which certainly would apply to breaking balls and offspeed pitches. The bigger jump, though, was up and away. Some of those were probably poorly located non-fastballs, but for the most part he was chasing fastballs. A similar trend is seen with the whiff rates.

 

Again, there are jumps everywhere, but the big one is up and away. This would suggest he had trouble with fastballs out of the zone more than any other pitch. The overall numbers don’t totally bear this out — his whiff rate (per Baseball Savant) against all three types of pitches jumped by roughly the same amount — but in terms of the pitches out of the zone it sure seems like the fastball was the big issue.

 

On top of all that, what was most interesting to me was the issue Benintendi had after falling behind early. In 2018, he struck out only 20 percent of the time after seeing a first-pitch strike. Among the 279 hitters who had at least 150 0-1 counts, that ranked 40th. Then, in 2019, that rate jumped up to 32 percent, ranking 183rd among 280 hitters. That is a massive jump in the wrong direction. Weirdly enough, as far as I could tell there was no substantial change in approach from pitchers after getting ahead 0-1. This was just Benintendi being a totally different, and worse, hitter under the same circumstances.

 

So, what does all of this mean? I get the impression — and this is total speculation — that Benintendi got a little into his own head, first trying to take a leap at the start of the year then pressing when things didn’t go well. That played out on a macro level judging by his end-of-year numbers and also on a more granular level with the numbers on 0-1 counts. Before Alex Cora left the Red Sox, he mentioned that Benintendi had come in last season in different shape. Not out of shape, but bigger. The way I read that was that he was trying to be someone he wasn’t. Tim Hyers said more recently that Benintendi has dropped weight ahead of this year, which seems like a good sign to me. To answer the question, I think Benintendi should cut down that strikeout rate, and the biggest factor just seems to be accepting who he is and being the best possible version of that, which is a very good player. Even if it’s short of being a great one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Paddack

Richards

Davies

Lucchesi

Lamet

Quantril (spot starter)

 

Seems pretty good for the Padres to me.

 

They need someone to take the reigns. Paddack was good, but he was babied. Richards is coming off TJS, so he needs to be brought along as well. Davies is a solid mid to back end guy. Lucchesi is a back end guy. Lamet, meh? Their division has a juggernaut. You don't shoot the shot for a rental without a realistic chance at the division. They aren't there

[mvp 78]

They need someone to take the reigns. Paddack was good, but he was babied. Richards is coming off TJS, so he needs to be brought along as well. Davies is a solid mid to back end guy. Lucchesi is a back end guy. Lamet, meh? Their division has a juggernaut. You don't shoot the shot for a rental without a realistic chance at the division. They aren't there

 

That seems to be the best they can do with their budget considering that MLB attendance has dropped 4 consecutive years and the Padres don't have a record breaking tv deal.

[jacksonianmarch]

That seems to be the best they can do with their budget considering that MLB attendance has dropped 4 consecutive years and the Padres don't have a record breaking tv deal.

 

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

[mvp 78]

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

 

They are only really making that trade to get rid of Myers' salary. Getting Betts for a year just would help ticket sales.

[moonslav59]

They are only really making that trade to get rid of Myers' salary. Getting Betts for a year just would help ticket sales.

 

Right or wrong, the Padres keep acting like they think they can win with "one more bid addition."

 

Betts is not a salary dump, so they shouldn't treat him like one by demanding we take Myers and pay a big chunk of his contract.

[mvp 78]

Right or wrong, the Padres keep acting like they think they can win with "one more bid addition."

 

Betts is not a salary dump, so they shouldn't treat him like one by demanding we take Myers and pay a big chunk of his contract.

 

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.

[notin]

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.

 

After the job he did on that farm system, he will be unemployed for potentially dozens of minutes...

[harmony]

The GM is on the hot seat. He has a limited budget and needs to get the owners to believe in him. If he doesn't get Betts, he's probably fired as the Padres will be a for sure also ran team.

If A.J. Preller gets Mookie Betts and experiences another losing season (after losing 92 games last year), then loses Betts to free agency, he's probably gone.

 

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

[Slasher9]

 

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

 

Booooo! this should have been "mookie betts is the solution to the Padres woes. or not."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They spent for sure. Maybe this is the year Machado returns to the .900+OPS guy. Maybe this is the year Hosmer returns to a .300/25/100 guy. Who knows. But when you are facing LA, who is loaded, you need more than hope. And right now, in that division, I still think the DBacks are better too. Heck, if the Rockies pitchers rebound, they have more firepower than anyone. Even with Betts, the Padres aren't a juggernaut and still may not make the POs. If you are a team on the rise but not quite there, you don't make a rental move and give up future pieces. Now signing someone? Go for it. But jettisoning talent? No way

 

I'm going to agree with you here. Maybe SD is hoping Betts turns them into an instant contender like Yelich (and Cain) did for the Brewers. But I have to think (and hope) there's no way Bloom will deal Mookie to the Pads unless they cave on hoarding their "untouchables".

[mvp 78]

I'm going to agree with you here. Maybe SD is hoping Betts turns them into an instant contender like Yelich (and Cain) did for the Brewers. But I have to think (and hope) there's no way Bloom will deal Mookie to the Pads unless they cave on hoarding their "untouchables".

 

He only gets moved to the Padres is the deal gets them under the lux tax OR it's the only deal on the table.

 

Padres should have just worked out a quick deal before the Dodgers could roll up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bloom has waited all winter, and isn't the GM who has the Dodgers' tail lights in his windshield to worry about. Bloom is sitting on a Hall of Famer; the worst that can happen is that he keeps a superstar in his prime for his entire salary-drive season.

 

Myers won't be stumbling through that gate in right field. Gore, Patino, Abrams...

[moonslav59]

Even if Myers turns into one of Blooms famed reclamation success stories, it’s still a bad deal for the Sox, unless they kick in some talent.

[notin]

If A.J. Preller gets Mookie Betts and experiences another losing season (after losing 92 games last year), then loses Betts to free agency, he's probably gone.

 

Mookie Betts might not be the solution to the Padres' woes.

 

And if he is well on his way to another 92 loss season on July31, and still holds on to Betts all the way to free agency, he should be gone...

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Trevor Kelley DFA'd by Phillies.

 

 

Phillies had grabbed him after being put through waivers by BOS. Does Bloom bring him back?

[jacksonianmarch]

@ChrisCotillo

Trevor Kelley DFA'd by Phillies.

 

 

Phillies had grabbed him after being put through waivers by BOS. Does Bloom bring him back?

 

Bloom owes him no loyalty, so my bet is no. If Bloom had drafted and developed him, I would say, maybe

[mvp 78]

I just wonder if he passes through waivers and the Sox bring him back on a MiLB deal. He was a AAA All Star or some s*** last year.

 

By the time he played in BOS last year, I had already tuned out the season.