A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

they spent big money but also figured out a way to build the Farm at the same time.

thanks Dave!

 

Theo got lucky when he was with us - probably due to better scouts.

 

The Cubs farm is even worse than ours now.

[notin]

You said 'a GM like Dombrowski cannot win without spending'.

 

That may be so. But it's also been true of Theo, Ben and Cashman.

 

Does that fact make them bad at what they do? That's my question to you.

 

Well, as slasher said, both built the farm at the same time. Why is that so unimportant?

 

And neither left the Sox in the position they are in now, with payroll limitations and no help on the horizon in the form of minimum wage players with potential to contribute.

 

Even you yourself said Bloom has a "monumental task" in front of him to be competitive while staying under the limit. Why is that?

 

Spending it an easy way to succeed, but there is a clear an obvious downside, which comes when the expensive players inevitably are no longer the stars that were paid for. At that point, having the farm system helps mitigate that damage, by getting contributing players who don't require $10mill paychecks. Right now the Sox have the expensive contracts whose contributions appear to be declining, but nearly nothing in the way of minimum wage help to offset things. This could be a big problem. And this is where Dombrowski failed. It's like someone who takes their retirement savings to fund a trip to Vegas. Sure the Vegas trip/World Series title were fun, but once they are over, then what?

[S5Dewey]

Money may not be the total solution to winning the WSC but it doesn't hurt. Without doing the research - and I'm sure someone will if I'm wrong here - I'd ask how many teams with a payroll in the lower 2/3 of MLB have won the WS in the past 10 years?

 

Yes, a well-constructed team playing in the right division can get a WC spot or even win their division but when the rubber hits the road - when teams start playing for the League Championship - we learn that many/most of those high-paid players are paid that much for a reason.

 

In a sport where a player is successful 1/3 of the time he's considered very successful it's inevitable that some of them will fail in the playoffs, but if a team has enough of the highly paid players it's a good bet that some of them will be successful enough to be help the team win.

[Bellhorn04]

Even you yourself said Bloom has a "monumental task" in front of him to be competitive while staying under the limit. Why is that?

 

Well, for starters, we're already over the limit.

[Bellhorn04]

Money may not be the total solution to winning the WSC but it doesn't hurt. Without doing the research - and I'm sure someone will if I'm wrong here - I'd ask how many teams with a payroll in the lower 2/3 of MLB have won the WS in the past 10 years?

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19605-Postseason-standings-for-the-last-20-years

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankee fans I talk to also know they won't win a title with Sanchez behind the plate, they're stuck with Stanton, and their lineup is righty-heavy. Schwarber would be a perfect DH in Yankee Stadium, but luckily Epstein knows that and wouldn't want to be responsible for putting him in pinstripes.

 

yet he gladly handed Torres to us. Epstein's loyalty is to his team, that's it

[harmony]

What MLB needs in next CBA is Frugal Tax....Tax any club who has say a payroll of $100M or less. Tax rate can be 50% of delta between $100M and actual CBA Payroll.

 

That will help the players.

Some households live paycheck to paycheck while others set aside savings to be spent at the most opportune time.

 

A team should not be penalized for saving for the future.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

yet he gladly handed Torres to us. Epstein's loyalty is to his team, that's it

 

Great hitter; not as good as Didi at short... another key position where defense wins titles.

 

Granted, Bogaerts never looked as good as Didi, either. Lugo definitely wasn't, Drew and Cabrera were maybe just as solid. But I'm sure someone can dredge up some statistic to tell me what I was seeing wasn't what I actually saw.

[jacksonianmarch]

MLB doesn't want to institute a cap because the MLBPA would require a floor. MLBPA won't require a floor knowing that MLB will institute a cap to do so. It's cat and mouse.

[jacksonianmarch]

Great hitter; not as good as Didi at short... another key position where defense wins titles.

 

Granted, Bogaerts never looked as good as Didi, either. Lugo definitely wasn't, Drew and Cabrera were maybe just as solid. But I'm sure someone can dredge up some statistic to tell me what I was seeing wasn't what I actually saw.

 

Torres is also 22 and like Devers, may end up seeing a big improvement once he gets acclimated. Torres hasn't been the regular SS yet. He will be in 2020

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Torres is also 22 and like Devers, may end up seeing a big improvement once he gets acclimated. Torres hasn't been the regular SS yet. He will be in 2020

 

Certainly a possibility, but the adjustment period in a win-or-else market could be another reason why the Yankees may not be quite as good in '20. NY only had two defensive standouts -- Didi and Judge -- in the past postseason when D was an issue... and that tandem may soon be cut in half.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I want to do this, but here's the scenario of a mega fire sale this winter.

 

Trade:

 

JBJ, Walden, Johnson & Eovaldi & $7M a year for Ryan Pressley & Marisnik. We save about $10M on luxury tax budget.

 

JD Martinez for a prospect. (Save $22M)

 

David Price & $5M a year for Rougned Odor (Save $18M)

 

Mookie Betts for Prospects (Save $28M)

 

Total savings: about $75M. That leaves about $70M to spend and reset.

 

Sign (MLBTR predicted contract values):

 

$18M x 3 Jake Odorizzi

$15M x 3 Marcel Ozuna

$9M x 2 Tanner Rourk

$9M x 2 Julio Teheran

$9M x 2 Will Harris

$4M x 2 Josh Lindblom

$5M x 1 Pedro Strop

 

Look to re-sign Betts in 2021 and go back over the luxury line. The 2020 Sox:

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Erod

SP3 Odorizzi

SP4 Rourk

SP5 Teheran

SP6 Lindblom

 

RP1 W Harris

RP2 Workman

RP3 Pressley

RP4 Barnes

RP5 Strop

RP6 Taylor

RP7 D Hernanzez/Osich/Hembree/Brasier

 

1. Benintendi LF

2. Bogaerts SS

3. Devers 3B

4. Ozuna CF

5. Dalbec 1B

6. Chavis DH

7. Vazquez C

8. Marisnik RF

9. Marco/Lin/Chatham 2B

 

Betts replaces Marisnik in 2021.

[notin]

I don't think it gets that complex for Boston this year.

 

Depending on if they trade Betts and what they get for him, I see no reason this team cannot be competitive in 2020 outside of the health of the 3 starting pitchers....

[moonslav59]

I don't think it gets that complex for Boston this year.

 

Depending on if they trade Betts and what they get for him, I see no reason this team cannot be competitive in 2020 outside of the health of the 3 starting pitchers....

 

There's no way we do what I showed, but if we are looking to be somewhat competitive in 2020 and better positioned for 2021 and beyond, the idea has some merit.

[harmony]

There's no way we do what I showed, but if we are looking to be somewhat competitive in 2020 and better positioned for 2021 and beyond, the idea has some merit.

Most of the trade offers are light on the Red Sox end:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[moonslav59]

Most of the trade offers are light on the Red Sox end:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Okay, then add a prospect we get for JD to the Astros.

 

Bump up some of the cash we give to the Rangers.

[moonslav59]

Most of the trade offers are light on the Red Sox end:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Just playing around, and I found this trade to be about even:

 

To LAD: Betts, Price, Eovaldi, JBJ & Walden

 

To BOS: Jansen, Pederson & Pollock

 

(They actually say the Sox are owed $2M.)

[moonslav59]

Red Sox place Brian Johnson on outright waivers.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/red-sox-place-brian-johnson-on-outright-waivers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just playing around, and I found this trade to be about even:

 

To LAD: Betts, Price, Eovaldi, JBJ & Walden

 

To BOS: Jansen, Pederson & Pollock

 

(They actually say the Sox are owed $2M.)

 

Please retract this asap before someone in LA sees it! Or at least delete Betts' name!!!

 

The last thing we need is past-his-prime Pollock, no hit lefties/no field Joc and half-cooked Jansen (who LA won't even use in big spots anymore). I know you were just trying to make numbers match... and the total of all five of your Sox on that site probably don't add up to just one of Lux, May, Verdugo or Ruiz -- but I have faith those are the types that Bloom is demanding in some combination or no deal.

[harmony]

Please retract this asap before someone in LA sees it! Or at least delete Betts' name!!!

 

The last thing we need is past-his-prime Pollock, no hit lefties/no field Joc and half-cooked Jansen (who LA won't even use in big spots anymore). I know you were just trying to make numbers match... and the total of all five of your Sox on that site probably don't add up to just one of Lux, May, Verdugo or Ruiz -- but I have faith those are the types that Bloom is demanding in some combination or no deal.

According to the website, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Marcus Walden have a combined negative trade value of $81.7 million. Mookie Betts' surplus value of $50 million still leaves a negative value of $31.7 million.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

A.J. Pollock, Joc Pederson and Kenley Jansen have a combined negative value of $33.5 million, according to that website. Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $88.5 million, Dustin May $61.4 million, Keibert Ruiz $50.6 million and Alex Verdugo $50.1 million.

 

Be realistic ... perhaps Mookie Betts for five years of 23-year-old outfielder Alex Verdugo would work.

[notin]

Please retract this asap before someone in LA sees it! Or at least delete Betts' name!!!

 

The last thing we need is past-his-prime Pollock, no hit lefties/no field Joc and half-cooked Jansen (who LA won't even use in big spots anymore). I know you were just trying to make numbers match... and the total of all five of your Sox on that site probably don't add up to just one of Lux, May, Verdugo or Ruiz -- but I have faith those are the types that Bloom is demanding in some combination or no deal.

 

I honestly doubt the Dodgers give up any of their best prospects for the right to pay Betts $25-30mill for one season. Think more along the lines of maybe Tony Gonsolin, Jeter Downs and/or Josiah Gray...

Edited November 25, 2019 by notin

[mvp 78]

Red Sox place Brian Johnson on outright waivers.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/red-sox-place-brian-johnson-on-outright-waivers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

Finally

[notin]

Red Sox place Brian Johnson on outright waivers.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/red-sox-place-brian-johnson-on-outright-waivers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

Oh no! Whose going to gill that gaping void?

[moonslav59]

Please retract this asap before someone in LA sees it! Or at least delete Betts' name!!!

 

The last thing we need is past-his-prime Pollock, no hit lefties/no field Joc and half-cooked Jansen (who LA won't even use in big spots anymore). I know you were just trying to make numbers match... and the total of all five of your Sox on that site probably don't add up to just one of Lux, May, Verdugo or Ruiz -- but I have faith those are the types that Bloom is demanding in some combination or no deal.

 

This deal would be to shed contract money. It is not intended to be an even talent trade.

 

In theory, the money saved could be used to sign Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, errr.... wait a minute....

[moonslav59]

According to the website, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Marcus Walden have a combined negative trade value of $81.7 million. Mookie Betts' surplus value of $50 million still leaves a negative value of $31.7 million.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

A.J. Pollock, Joc Pederson and Kenley Jansen have a combined negative value of $33.5 million, according to that website. Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $88.5 million, Dustin May $61.4 million, Keibert Ruiz $50.6 million and Alex Verdugo $50.1 million.

 

Be realistic ... perhaps Mookie Betts for five years of 23-year-old outfielder Alex Verdugo would work.

 

Hey, you gave me the link to the silly site.

 

The deal I put together is near even.

[Bellhorn04]

Hey, you gave me the link to the silly site.

 

The deal I put together is near even.

 

harmony agrees with you. His response was to 5GoldGloves.

[moonslav59]

harmony agrees with you. His response was to 5GoldGloves.

 

Thanks for pointing that out.

 

(Sorry, harmony.)

[moonslav59]

Please retract this asap before someone in LA sees it! Or at least delete Betts' name!!!

 

The last thing we need is past-his-prime Pollock, no hit lefties/no field Joc and half-cooked Jansen (who LA won't even use in big spots anymore). I know you were just trying to make numbers match... and the total of all five of your Sox on that site probably don't add up to just one of Lux, May, Verdugo or Ruiz -- but I have faith those are the types that Bloom is demanding in some combination or no deal.

 

You'll love this one:

 

To SDP: Betts, Price & Eovaldi

 

To BOS: Quantrill, Margot & Myers

 

(The trade simulator says we may have to kick in $1.5M.)

[notin]

You'll love this one:

 

To SDP: Betts, Price & Eovaldi

 

To BOS: Quantrill, Margot & Myers

 

(The trade simulator says we may have to kick in $1.5M.)

 

Out of the approximate $120mill that trade would cost San Diego...

[moonslav59]

Out of the approximate $120mill that trade would cost San Diego...

 

Shows just how silly the whole thing is. Maybe we could throw in $40M and get a nice prospect, too.