A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

The fact is, we didn’t become a back to back 100 win team by spending.

 

2019 payroll for tax purposes:

 

Boston 242 million

NYY 234 million

[jacksonianmarch]

2019 payroll for tax purposes:

 

Boston 242 million

NYY 234 million

 

NYY $231 mil

BOS $241 mil

 

Yes, we ended up in the lux tax, but we didn't rebuild by spending. We rebuild then filled in around the core with FA talents or guys we got in trade.

[Bellhorn04]

NYY $231 mil

BOS $241 mil

 

Yes, we ended up in the lux tax, but we didn't rebuild by spending. We rebuild then filled in around the core with FA talents or guys we got in trade.

 

Not to be fighting over peanuts, but I'm quite sure the 234 mill number for the Yankees is correct. It explains why they capped their offer to Keuchel at 11.5 mill and wouldn't match the 13 mill offered by Atlanta.

[harmony]

Christopher Smith of masslive.com weighs in on the Red Sox payroll:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/10/boston-red-sox-likely-to-cut-payroll-at-non-tender-deadline-with-701m-projected-for-salary-arbitration-players.html

[Bellhorn04]

Christopher Smith of masslive.com weighs in on the Red Sox payroll:

 

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/10/boston-red-sox-likely-to-cut-payroll-at-non-tender-deadline-with-701m-projected-for-salary-arbitration-players.html

 

Mr. Smith makes a glaring error when he reports that JBJ has two years of control left.

[moonslav59]

We kept adding ancillary pieces to stay relevant, but we didn’t really jump in the standings until the kids graduated and took on huge roles. It took from 13-16 to grow the farm. We drafted Judge in 13. We signed Sanchez in 11. Sevy was around that time. We drafted JMont in 14. We dealt for Hicks by using JR Murphy. We dealt for Didi by sending off Greene. We got Torres by dealing off Chap then resigned him. We dealt off Miller and got Sheffield who we flipped for Paxton. We dealt off Beltran for Tate who we flipped for Britton. We dealt off Nova for Polo who we paired with Rutherford in the big CWS deal that brought us KRob and Kahnle. We dealt off McCann for Abreu and Guzman. Guzman was the centerpiece for Stanton.

 

The fact is, we didn’t become a back to back 100 win team by spending. We became a back to back 100 win team by dismantling in 16 while also grooming the #2 farm system in baseball. We then used that farm system to build a team that’s won the second most regular season games in baseball over the last three seasons and is very much arrow up in terms of future projections. That we didn’t end up below .500 from 13-16 was due to the additions on the big league end.

 

Please. I've always respected you, buy you are losing my respect. 2013 was NOT ancillary pieces added. You guys signed 4 QO free agents plus Tanaka! Two were for 7 year contracts! At least admit your rebuild was just from 2014 to 2016.

 

You've been saying mediocrity is not the way to rebuild, yet the model you keep using, your own team, did just that.

 

It was not a 4 year rebuild.

 

IMO, it was not even a 3 year rebuild; it was 1.5 to 2 years.

 

I'm not arguing dismantling is not the key. I believe it is to some extent. You rebuilt when you sold your pieces for young players and prospects. That was not over a 4 year span. It was quick, and the turn around was quick.

 

Our ring in 2013 was largely a result of the Dodger sell-off trade in August 2012. That was a less than one year rebuild and turn around.

 

Our 3 division titles and ring in 2018 were helped by the pitching sell-off in 2014. We won 71 games in 2014, 78 in 2015 and then won the division 3 years in a row. That was a 1.5 year rebuild and complete turnaround.

 

Quick turn arounds are doable, and I'm surprised you have forgotten such recent history already.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re way off. Two QO FAs in McCann and Ellsbury. We signed Beltran, who wasn’t eligible for a QO and we signed Tanaka.

 

We spent to stay mediocre. We made no major prospect trades. The biggest names we dealt as prospects were Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo and Yangervis Solarte. Not exactly a who’s who of prospects. This is how we stayed competitive. We had dead contracts on the books. We built around a rotten core and stayed above .500. Is that what you want? The one thing we did was build our farm. We didn’t deal any prospect of value from 13-16. We added tons of prospects in that time. It paid off. I’d have rather lost 90 games from 13-16 and gotten better picks and have rather dealt off even more.

[moonslav59]

You’re way off. Two QO FAs in McCann and Ellsbury. We signed Beltran, who wasn’t eligible for a QO and we signed Tanaka.

 

We spent to stay mediocre. We made no major prospect trades. The biggest names we dealt as prospects were Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo and Yangervis Solarte. Not exactly a who’s who of prospects. This is how we stayed competitive. We had dead contracts on the books. We built around a rotten core and stayed above .500. Is that what you want? The one thing we did was build our farm. We didn’t deal any prospect of value from 13-16. We added tons of prospects in that time. It paid off. I’d have rather lost 90 games from 13-16 and gotten better picks and have rather dealt off even more.

 

Yes, Beltran was a QO, and so was Kuroda, who you re-signed. That's 4 (Ellsbury & McCann). Tanaka was not a QO. That's 5 major signings. That's either rebuilding by free agency or it's not a rebuild like you have been expounding.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014-mlb-free-agent-tracker/team-19__status-1

 

You guys thought you could win after these massive signings. It was NOT the rebuild plan you are saying the Sox should do, right? So, cross off one year from your 4 year rebuild claim. Maybe cross off more from what you read next.

 

You added the vast majority of prospects via trade in a very short window- not over 4 years. I'm not an expert on Yankee trades, but I recall their big fire sale was not spread over 4 or even 3 years. Almost all were within a year or 1.5 years. Right?

 

And, stop with the "Is that what you want?" You know my position is to trade deadwood and free agents to be. This is not about us needing to have some sort of fire sale. We agree on that.

 

Our argument is about quick rebuilds and turn arounds. The Sox did it twice: the Dodger dump which led to a ring the very next year and the 2014 pitcher dump which led to 3 division titles in a row less than 1.5 years later. You never responded to these examples.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beltran was not a QO. He couldn’t be a QO, he was dealt to SF midseason. And we resigned Kuroda, so cmon now, that’s a guy on the roster

[notin]

Beltran was not a QO. He couldn’t be a QO, he was dealt to SF midseason. And we resigned Kuroda, so cmon now, that’s a guy on the roster

 

Beltran was dealt midseason to the Giants 3 years before the Yankees signed him. He was with the Cardinals for two full seasons before signing with the Yankees.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtm

 

And he did receive a QO from St. Louis.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/no-free-agents-accept-qualifying-offers.html

[moonslav59]

Beltran was dealt midseason to the Giants 3 years before the Yankees signed him. He was with the Cardinals for two full seasons before signing with the Yankees.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtm

 

And he did receive a QO from St. Louis.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/no-free-agents-accept-qualifying-offers.html

 

I think he's stretched out a 1 year rebuild into 4 years and messed up some years and facts.

[moonslav59]

Beltran was not a QO. He couldn’t be a QO, he was dealt to SF midseason. And we resigned Kuroda, so cmon now, that’s a guy on the roster

 

So, we should re-sign Porcello as part of a rebuild?

 

Signing Kuroda and 4 other big names was an attempt to win not to rebuild. Why can't you just admit it.

[moonslav59]

In the winter of 14-15, the Yanks signed Miller to the biggest non closer deal in MLB history. They also signed Headley.

 

$88M on 2 guys. One could view them as part of a rebuild, but it's not part of a don't be mediocre plan during the rebuild, you're trying to peddle on us.

 

I may be mistaken, but I remember the bulk of the fire sale occured in 2016 and not over a 4 year period.

[jacksonianmarch]

So, we should re-sign Porcello as part of a rebuild?

 

Signing Kuroda and 4 other big names was an attempt to win not to rebuild. Why can't you just admit it.

 

I think there is a miscommunication between you and I.

 

I wanted the Yanks to blow it up in 2013, but they clearly didnt. Yes, they spent big to try to stay competitive, but starting in 2013, they stopped dealing young talent for veterans. This allowed them to build. Yes, they spent a lot of money, but they no longer dealt away long term talent for short term players. By stopping the outflow of prospects, they were able to build a very strong farm led by Judge, Severino, Sanchez, Andujar, etc. When they finally blew it up, their farm was there, ready to provide big league talent. The timing was impeccable and we actually got better.

 

The reason why I am making the comparison is that the Yanks had tons of money on the docket with a lot of the money paid to players no longer performing well, and their team building strategy was almost entirely by FA signings. This led them down the path to further financial obligation with rather minimal improvement. This was also in a different time. There was no draft pick compensation for going over the threshold by any amount, so all the penalty entailed was money. The sox are currently similar to the 2013 Yanks. Keep adding money and all you're gonna see is marginal improvement with pretty high stakes penalties.

[d-money]

So is this team looking to compete next year or what? Yankees have everything in front of them to win a championship. The Sox are not a small market team.

[moonslav59]

I think there is a miscommunication between you and I.

 

I wanted the Yanks to blow it up in 2013, but they clearly didnt. Yes, they spent big to try to stay competitive, but starting in 2013, they stopped dealing young talent for veterans. This allowed them to build. Yes, they spent a lot of money, but they no longer dealt away long term talent for short term players. By stopping the outflow of prospects, they were able to build a very strong farm led by Judge, Severino, Sanchez, Andujar, etc. When they finally blew it up, their farm was there, ready to provide big league talent. The timing was impeccable and we actually got better.

 

The reason why I am making the comparison is that the Yanks had tons of money on the docket with a lot of the money paid to players no longer performing well, and their team building strategy was almost entirely by FA signings. This led them down the path to further financial obligation with rather minimal improvement. This was also in a different time. There was no draft pick compensation for going over the threshold by any amount, so all the penalty entailed was money. The sox are currently similar to the 2013 Yanks. Keep adding money and all you're gonna see is marginal improvement with pretty high stakes penalties.

 

Tell me what I got wrong in our "disconnect?"

 

1) You claim mediocrity makes it harder to rebuild (I agree).

2) You keep talking about the Yankee rebuild like it's the only way to rebuild (I disagree).

3) You keep saying the rebuild cannot be quick in these situations (You maybe be correct.)

4) You claimed the Yankee rebuild was 4 years long-hinting it might take us that long.

 

I point out these facts:

1) The Yankee rebuild was not 4 years long.

2) The Yankees remained mediocre (84-87 wins) for the 4 years you cliam they were rebuilding- a very clear example of mediocrity.

3) The Yankees tried hard to win when they signed 5 guys to big deals- 4 were QO FAs and Tanaka got 7 years. (You denied Beltran was a QO FA and say Kurda should not count because he was a Yankee to begin with, like Porcello is right now going into a FA winter.)

4) The Yankees did draft and acquire a few prospects over the 4 years you speak of, but the bulk of the farm boost came from the fire sale that was at the very tail end of the 4 year rebuild you keep speaking of.

 

Tell me where I'm wrong.

 

Tell me where I misunderstand your positions stated.

 

Look, I agree we need some sort of fire sale to quicken the rebuild. It is likely essential we need to trade JD, JBJ (if tradable) and Betts. If Price or Eovaldi show improvement, next year, we may have to try and trade them. I'm not sure about ERod or Barnes, but if we don't wait 3 years into a 4 year rebuild, like Cashman did, to have a fire sale, we can hasten the rebuild.

 

We sold in 2012 and won in 2013.

 

We sold in 2014 and began winning the division 3 times in a row less than 2 years later.

 

Sell and then spend can bring quick results. Look closer at the Yankee model, and you'll see it was not really a 4 year rebuild. You were mediocre for 4 years, and you only turned it around after the fire sale.

 

You can rebuild while mediocre.

 

You can rebuild quickly and thoroughly.

[notin]

So is this team looking to compete next year or what? Yankees have everything in front of them to win a championship. The Sox are not a small market team.

 

I’ve been told repeatedly on this site a team needs an ace to win a World Series. Do the Yankees have one?

[moonslav59]

I’ve been told repeatedly on this site a team needs an ace to win a World Series. Do the Yankees have one?

 

Only in their pen.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tell me what I got wrong in our "disconnect?"

 

1) You claim mediocrity makes it harder to rebuild (I agree).

2) You keep talking about the Yankee rebuild like it's the only way to rebuild (I disagree).

3) You keep saying the rebuild cannot be quick in these situations (You maybe be correct.)

4) You claimed the Yankee rebuild was 4 years long-hinting it might take us that long.

 

I point out these facts:

1) The Yankee rebuild was not 4 years long.

2) The Yankees remained mediocre (84-87 wins) for the 4 years you cliam they were rebuilding- a very clear example of mediocrity.

3) The Yankees tried hard to win when they signed 5 guys to big deals- 4 were QO FAs and Tanaka got 7 years. (You denied Beltran was a QO FA and say Kurda should not count because he was a Yankee to begin with, like Porcello is right now going into a FA winter.)

4) The Yankees did draft and acquire a few prospects over the 4 years you speak of, but the bulk of the farm boost came from the fire sale that was at the very tail end of the 4 year rebuild you keep speaking of.

 

Tell me where I'm wrong.

 

Tell me where I misunderstand your positions stated.

 

Look, I agree we need some sort of fire sale to quicken the rebuild. It is likely essential we need to trade JD, JBJ (if tradable) and Betts. If Price or Eovaldi show improvement, next year, we may have to try and trade them. I'm not sure about ERod or Barnes, but if we don't wait 3 years into a 4 year rebuild, like Cashman did, to have a fire sale, we can hasten the rebuild.

 

We sold in 2012 and won in 2013.

 

We sold in 2014 and began winning the division 3 times in a row less than 2 years later.

 

Sell and then spend can bring quick results. Look closer at the Yankee model, and you'll see it was not really a 4 year rebuild. You were mediocre for 4 years, and you only turned it around after the fire sale.

 

You can rebuild while mediocre.

 

You can rebuild quickly and thoroughly.

 

Every one of the years you rebuilt, your farm was already good. This year is different. Also, every year of your rebuild saw a major drop-off in committed payroll, which wont be the case next year

 

Yes, the Yankees stayed mediocre and spent like maniacs. But their "rebuild" was in their handling of farm assets. You remember how the Yanks operated previously, right? Minor leaguer with a pulse, deal them off for now assets. Well, that changed when we got eliminated by Detroit. It took 4 years and a sell off to rebuild through mediocrity starting with bloated contracts and a poor farm system. It was augmented by spending and adding to the team. This is the current example that the sox will follow. They will try to stay relevant. They will still hand out contracts. They will eventually sell off. Their fastest return to glory using that route was shown by the Yanks at 4 years.

 

Our farm was already really good when we blew it up. The narrative that the rebuild was only due to dealing off assets is pure fiction. Judge, Andujar, Sanchez, Sevy, Montgomery were all in our system. The sell off allowed us to add Torres, Frazier and Sheffield (plus others) which allowed us to strengthen our position. But our farm was already really good when we sold off

Edited October 14, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

Every one of the years you rebuilt, your farm was already good. This year is different. Also, every year of your rebuild saw a major drop-off in committed payroll, which wont be the case next year

 

Yes, the Yankees stayed mediocre and spent like maniacs. But their "rebuild" was in their handling of farm assets. You remember how the Yanks operated previously, right? Minor leaguer with a pulse, deal them off for now assets. Well, that changed when we got eliminated by Detroit. It took 4 years and a sell off to rebuild through mediocrity starting with bloated contracts and a poor farm system. It was augmented by spending and adding to the team. This is the current example that the sox will follow. They will try to stay relevant. They will still hand out contracts. They will eventually sell off. Their fastest return to glory using that route was shown by the Yanks at 4 years.

 

Our farm was already really good when we blew it up. The narrative that the rebuild was only due to dealing off assets is pure fiction. Judge, Andujar, Sanchez, Sevy, Montgomery were all in our system. The sell off allowed us to add Torres, Frazier and Sheffield (plus others) which allowed us to strengthen our position. But our farm was already really good when we sold off

 

The sell off was absolutely essential to the rebuild. I never said it was everything, but your trade-off and then jumping back into spending- like bringing Chapman back and signing 2 other top RPers was major. The sell-off was more than just about the prospects you got back, it was about freeing up budget space for future signings, in some cases.

 

Yes, you had rebuilt the farm before that sell-off to respectability while being mediocre. You drafted well with mediocre and low picks (like Judge at 32), yet you say we cannot build up our farm while being mediocre. Am I correct on this? You don't see a disconnect there?

 

Yes, our farm was good when we had our sell-offs, that's a good point. It's not good, now, but it has shown a jump in the most recent rankings, and who knows if we'll have some boost from low or mediocre picks from years past. The best part of the Sox 2012 sell-off was the budget space it freed up and allowed us to sign Vic & Napoli.

 

In 2013, you just signed 2 guys to 7 year deals and still had some long term deals. I think you over-exaggerate our long term commitments and have totally written off Sale, Price and Eovaldi, which you have every right to do.

 

The Yanks may have had a better farm back in 2013-2014, maybe not, but

 

I happen to like this current set-up...

6 Bogey

5 Sale

3 Price

3 Eovaldi

3 Vaz

 

better than your starting point...

7 Ellsbury

7 Tanaka

4 ARod

4 McCann

3 Teixeira

3 Sabathia

3 Beltran

(Then, extended Gardner for 4 more years)

 

Only Sale & Bogey are signed beyond 3 years starting in 2020. That's radically different from where the Yanks were.

 

Edited October 14, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

Only in their pen.

 

I’ve been told that doesn’t count, despite the 2015 Royals...

[moonslav59]

I’ve been told that doesn’t count, despite the 2015 Royals...

 

It doesn't. Even then.

[notin]

Every one of the years you rebuilt, your farm was already good. This year is different. Also, every year of your rebuild saw a major drop-off in committed payroll, which wont be the case next year

 

Yes, the Yankees stayed mediocre and spent like maniacs. But their "rebuild" was in their handling of farm assets. You remember how the Yanks operated previously, right? Minor leaguer with a pulse, deal them off for now assets. Well, that changed when we got eliminated by Detroit. It took 4 years and a sell off to rebuild through mediocrity starting with bloated contracts and a poor farm system. It was augmented by spending and adding to the team. This is the current example that the sox will follow. They will try to stay relevant. They will still hand out contracts. They will eventually sell off. Their fastest return to glory using that route was shown by the Yanks at 4 years.

 

Our farm was already really good when we blew it up. The narrative that the rebuild was only due to dealing off assets is pure fiction. Judge, Andujar, Sanchez, Sevy, Montgomery were all in our system. The sell off allowed us to add Torres, Frazier and Sheffield (plus others) which allowed us to strengthen our position. But our farm was already really good when we sold off

 

Completely irrelevant.

 

If the Sox kickoff a “rebuild” by trading Betts - a movement with no equivalent in Yankee history, they could be halfway to where the Yankee farm system got in 4 years in one quick deal this December...

[Slasher9]

I’ve been told repeatedly on this site a team needs an ace to win a World Series. Do the Yankees have one?

 

Pitching = parades.

“Aces” certainly help that formula but guys on a hot streak (see: Lowe) can certainly do it.

Tanaka looks hot as hell right now and may start 3 games this alcs, I would if I were Boone.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pitching = parades.

“Aces” certainly help that formula but guys on a hot streak (see: Lowe) can certainly do it.

Tanaka looks hot as hell right now and may start 3 games this alcs, I would if I were Boone.

 

Never. Tanaka is a guy who operates very well on extra or full rest. Absolutely no way I bring him back on short rest. Not a prayer. He goes game 5 and is in the pen for a game 7. We need another pitcher to step up in a starting role. I am hoping Sevy can build off his start in the clincher vs Minn to keep us in it vs Cole.

[notin]

Pitching = parades.

“Aces” certainly help that formula but guys on a hot streak (see: Lowe) can certainly do it.

Tanaka looks hot as hell right now and may start 3 games this alcs, I would if I were Boone.

 

I get that. Plenty of teams have won without an “ace.” Heck, who was the “ace” of the 2018 Red Sox? Easy to answer in the first half of the season...

 

Signing an “ace” pitcher is an unimaginative way to solve a team’s rotation issues, and the best part for a GM is, the fan base seemingly understands when the contract goes bad...

[jacksonianmarch]

There's an "ace" and a postseason ace. Sale had always been an "ace" but by the time the postseason rolled around, he was too tired to be effective and generally sucked. I also find it interesting that a guy like Tanaka can be about as mediocre as one can be during the season, but once the bright lights come on, he channels his inner Greg Maddux. Some guys are built differently. Verlander is one of them. The bright lights don't affect him.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that. Plenty of teams have won without an “ace.” Heck, who was the “ace” of the 2018 Red Sox? Easy to answer in the first half of the season...

 

Sometimes the 'ace' is just the guy who's pitching best at the time. The ace of the 2018 postseason was the fellow on the cover of the DVD set. His initials are DP.

[Bellhorn04]

There's an "ace" and a postseason ace. Sale had always been an "ace" but by the time the postseason rolled around, he was too tired to be effective and generally sucked. I also find it interesting that a guy like Tanaka can be about as mediocre as one can be during the season, but once the bright lights come on, he channels his inner Greg Maddux. Some guys are built differently. Verlander is one of them. The bright lights don't affect him.

 

Verlander's postseason career got off to a rocky start.

[notin]

Sometimes the 'ace' is just the guy who's pitching best at the time. The ace of the 2018 postseason was the fellow on the cover of the DVD set. His initials are DP.

 

Then how is a GM supposed to acquire one?