A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Nick]

This isn't homerism.

 

Why not answer my 3 questions?

 

Plus, how are most GMs hired? By the team seeking who it wants or candidates going to the teams with openings?

 

This whole story reeks of a untruths.

 

I'd have said the same about the Yanks, Patriots and other winning teams I hate. People want to work for winners.

 

Look, I'm not saying every soul in the world would want the Sox GM job, but there's no way what happened to Ben & DD is keeping anyone from being interested in the job.

 

It's a joke that anyone thinks that Red Sox job is unattractive. I'd say THAT guy is a puss**.

[moonslav59]

Have you posted a list of Red Sox players who remain under contract or team control in 2020 and their first FA years?

 

A while back, but here it is:

 

FAs after ....

 

2019

Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Holt, Cashner, Owings (JD?)

 

2020

Betts, JBJ, Workman, Wright, Leon, (JD?)

 

2021

ERod, Barnes, Hembree, Vaz (option for '22)

 

2022

Price

Eovaldi

JD (if he didn't before)

Beni

Pedroia

Vaz

Marco

 

Sale & Bogey signed for 2023+

Last Arbs: Devers, Johnson, Brasier

[jacksonianmarch]

Hembree is pitching today.

 

Yes, for his contract. Multiple IL stints for the elbow, PRP injection, returned with horrendous results. My bet is he’s on the operating table within a month

[moonslav59]

Yes, for his contract. Multiple IL stints for the elbow, PRP injection, returned with horrendous results. My bet is he’s on the operating table within a month

 

Highly speculative.

 

H'es under contract next year. The Sox would have shut him down and put him under the knife, if they felt he needed it.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but the guy is still pitching.

[jacksonianmarch]

Highly speculative.

 

H'es under contract next year. The Sox would have shut him down and put him under the knife, if they felt he needed it.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but the guy is still pitching.

 

He isn't being shut down because if the sox are trying to stay under, they need to know whether to tender him a contract.

[moonslav59]

He isn't being shut down because if the sox are trying to stay under, they need to know whether to tender him a contract.

 

Hembree's meager arb contract will not make or break the 2020 budget.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hembree's meager arb contract will not make or break the 2020 budget.

 

Every penny counts if you're trying to stay under. My bet is they get under by the skin of their teeth

[jacksonianmarch]

So there has been some news coming out of late.

 

1. The sox plan to stay under the first threshold for 2020

2. The sox plan to negotiate an extension with Mookie Betts

3. The sox plan to negotiate an extension with Rafael Devers

 

For the first one, this would be tricky. If the plan is to keep Betts, then you'd have to deal off JDM (or hope he opts out). That lineup is far less deadly without JDM and if you want anything great in return (top 100 prospects, plug and play big leaguer), you would probably have to eat some money. Then the question is, how competitive would the team be? The Yanks and Rays are deep and still rising in the division. The sox will be limited by their cap number and their aging and fragile rotation. Henry is all about timing, and I bet he sees the timing as poor for the sox to contend next year.

 

For the second one, I think this is a ploy for PR. Mookie said he is gonna go to FA. The sox are going to make the RSN aware they are gonna do everything they can to re-sign him..... right before he is dealt.

 

For the third one, if the sox are able to extend, it would probably be akin to the Bregman deal where they don't touch the pre-arb season next year and the extension kicks in afterwards for lux tax purposes

[moonslav59]

Every penny counts if you're trying to stay under. My bet is they get under by the skin of their teeth

 

True, but Hembree is a non factor. He could pitch great or s***** his last 5-10 appearances of 2019, and it won't matter. If we need to non tender him to stay under, we'd do it with any late 2019 results.

[moonslav59]

So there has been some news coming out of late.

 

1. The sox plan to stay under the first threshold for 2020

2. The sox plan to negotiate an extension with Mookie Betts

3. The sox plan to negotiate an extension with Rafael Devers

 

For the first one, this would be tricky. If the plan is to keep Betts, then you'd have to deal off JDM (or hope he opts out). That lineup is far less deadly without JDM and if you want anything great in return (top 100 prospects, plug and play big leaguer), you would probably have to eat some money. Then the question is, how competitive would the team be? The Yanks and Rays are deep and still rising in the division. The sox will be limited by their cap number and their aging and fragile rotation. Henry is all about timing, and I bet he sees the timing as poor for the sox to contend next year.

 

For the second one, I think this is a ploy for PR. Mookie said he is gonna go to FA. The sox are going to make the RSN aware they are gonna do everything they can to re-sign him..... right before he is dealt.

 

For the third one, if the sox are able to extend, it would probably be akin to the Bregman deal where they don't touch the pre-arb season next year and the extension kicks in afterwards for lux tax purposes

 

PR might be part of the reasoning, but I think we make a legitimate offer to Betts, this winter, that is fair and generous. If he takes it, great. If he refuses, there will be no Lester-like debacle. To me, the main reason for making a solid winter offer is to know whether we should trade him or not. If he turns down what we think he's worth, it makes sense to trade him, even if maybe that offer would have turned out to be the highest, and we'd have gotten him anyway. Besides, nothing will stop us from offering the same deal after he becomes a FA.

 

The Sox have a long history of accurately valuing their own players at the time the reach or near free agency, with the exception of Lester and maybe Lackey.

 

I'd like to see us be a good team, next year, but I'd also be okay with hastening the return to glory by maybe trading away a piece or two to brighten our extended future.

 

If we reset, I can't see us having a good chance at winning it all in 2020. I'm not saying we can't. We still have a solid core, and if health is on our side, we could look more like the 2018 Sox than the 2019 Sox, but my guess is, we wait until the deadline in 2020 to decide on trading JD and/or Betts and Workman. We may even look to trade players that will be FAs after 2021: ERod & Barnes, if we are already dismantling the team.

[Swiharts Ghost]

MLBTR reports...

 

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2019 at 7:07pm CDT

 

The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

 

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019. Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball. There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150...

 

This is big news Thankyou !!

[Larry Cook]

PR might be part of the reasoning, but I think we make a legitimate offer to Betts, this winter, that is fair and generous. If he takes it, great. If he refuses, there will be no Lester-like debacle. To me, the main reason for making a solid winter offer is to know whether we should trade him or not. If he turns down what we think he's worth, it makes sense to trade him, even if maybe that offer would have turned out to be the highest, and we'd have gotten him anyway. Besides, nothing will stop us from offering the same deal after he becomes a FA.

 

The Sox have a long history of accurately valuing their own players at the time the reach or near free agency, with the exception of Lester and maybe Lackey.

 

I'd like to see us be a good team, next year, but I'd also be okay with hastening the return to glory by maybe trading away a piece or two to brighten our extended future.

 

If we reset, I can't see us having a good chance at winning it all in 2020. I'm not saying we can't. We still have a solid core, and if health is on our side, we could look more like the 2018 Sox than the 2019 Sox, but my guess is, we wait until the deadline in 2020 to decide on trading JD and/or Betts and Workman. We may even look to trade players that will be FAs after 2021: ERod & Barnes, if we are already dismantling the team.

 

Dismantling seems kind of harsh!

 

In my mind, we did not properly work out starters in spring training, they subsequently broke down and we were eliminated from entry to the post season faster than Yankees fans seeking entrance to Mensa!

 

The one pitcher (rodriguez) who was worked properly in spring training had a career year.

 

So the task remains, if we think we can fix the starting pitching and add a closer, we have a roster that can win it all next season.

 

1.) I think price rebounds post surgery and does his usual thing next season.

2.) rodriguez will regress some, but still should be solid.

3.) I think evaldi improves next season, if he can stay healthy.

4.) we have to replace Porcello.

5.) where is sale’s shoulder and elbow? My guess is he is one pitch from Tommy John next season, so we need a viable option for him,

[moonslav59]

Dismantling seems kind of harsh!

 

In my mind, we did not properly work out starters in spring training, they subsequently broke down and we were eliminated from entry to the post season faster than Yankees fans seeking entrance to Mensa!

 

The one pitcher (rodriguez) who was worked properly in spring training had a career year.

 

So the task remains, if we think we can fix the starting pitching and add a closer, we have a roster that can win it all next season.

 

1.) I think price rebounds post surgery and does his usual thing next season.

2.) rodriguez will regress some, but still should be solid.

3.) I think evaldi improves next season, if he can stay healthy.

4.) we have to replace Porcello.

5.) where is sale’s shoulder and elbow? My guess is he is one pitch from Tommy John next season, so we need a viable option for him,

 

We can't reset and replace Porcello with anything costly. There are too many injury issues hanging over the staff.

 

I think we'll wait until the deadline to either buy or sell, and it could be a big sale.

[a700hitter]

This sounds like he may opt out:

 

JD Martinez Comments On Opt-Out

 

By Dylan A. Chase | September 29, 2019 at 9:50pm CDT

Eyebrows were raised from Charlestown to South End today when, at the questioning of Boston Globe report Pete Abraham, Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez seemed to express ambivalence about the prospect of returning to the team in 2020 (link). Martinez has a much-discussed opt-out to consider this offseason, and Abraham asked him whether the prospect of joining his fourth team in five years is truly an attractive one. “I don’t mind moving around,” Martinez told the reporter. “I kind of like it.”

That’s hardly the sort of “I love being here” boilerplate you often here when players are asked about potential opt-outs or extension prospects. It may be a bit dramatic to read too much into the comments of a player likely eager to conclude what has been a frustrating season in Beantown, but the 32-year-old will indeed have a difficult decision to make this offseason. As part of the five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston in February of 2018, Martinez has an opt-out this offseason that would actually pay him $2.5MM if he elects to forego the remaining three years and $62.45MM on his contract. Essentially, Martinez will have to reconcile his desire to stay in Boston long-term with the ability of his agent Scott Boras to find a deal elsewhere in excess of that $62.45MM guarantee.

 

If Boras wants to market Martinez as the best DH option on the open market this season, he will no doubt be able to assemble some convincing presentations. Though this season didn’t quite see the former Astro, Tiger, and Diamondback replicate the offensive assault he placed on baseballs in the previous two years (170 and 167 wRC+ figures in 2018 and 2017, respectively), he still mounted a .305/.383/.559 line in 2019–output resulting in a 139 wRC+.

 

Though the market has not been kind to corner/DH types in recent years, Martinez should represent a more appealing free agent option than, say, Edwin Encarnacion, over whom the Yankees hold a $20MM club option. Nelson Cruz, still a Statcast darling at age 39, could challenge Martinez for DH supremacy among free agents, but the Twins would be smart to exercise that player’s $12MM club option for 2020.

 

Put another way: it’s quite possible that this year’s DH market will consist of Martinez, Avisail Garcia, and a handful of past-30 question marks like Mark Trumbo. If Martinez’s comments to Abraham are any indication, that might be a market context he is willing–if not eager–to place himself within.

[S5Dewey]

The hard part is getting 6 innings every start.

 

We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS.

 

If we knew Sale, Price and ERod could go 6 each start, we wouldn't need 6 from the 4-5 slots, but we can't count on 6 from anybody but maybe ERod in 2020.

 

There are a couple of things worth pointing out from the above posts.

 

First, saying Porcillo is a 5.5 ERA pitcher is a bit disingenuous. Yes, 5.52 in 2019 but his career ERA is 4.36. 2019 was also the first time in his career that his ERA was over 5.00. It's like saying JBJ is now a 20 HR/yr guy because he hit 21 in 2019 - even though it was the 2nd best year in his career.

 

Also, there's a big difference between the contribution of a 5 ERA pitcher who pitches 6 innings and one who pitches 4 innings. The guy who pitches six innings is giving up 3.3 R/P Outing in 6 innings while the 5.0 ERA guy who's only pitching 4 innings is giving up 6 runs in his 4 innings.

 

ERA is a nice stat if one considers the number of innings pitched but obviously all 5.0 ERA pitchers aren't created equal. While I'm not trying to make a case that Poricllo is worth $20M at the same time a starter who only gives up 3.3 runs in 6 innings is a pitcher who's keeping his team in the game. That's worth quite a lot to a team that scores runs like the Red Sox do.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Best case scenario JD opts out and we find a sucker to trade for price

[Nick]

There are a couple of things worth pointing out from the above posts.

 

First, saying Porcillo is a 5.5 ERA pitcher is a bit disingenuous. Yes, 5.52 in 2019 but his career ERA is 4.36. 2019 was also the first time in his career that his ERA was over 5.00. It's like saying JBJ is now a 20 HR/yr guy because he hit 21 in 2019 - even though it was the 2nd best year in his career.

 

Also, there's a big difference between the contribution of a 5 ERA pitcher who pitches 6 innings and one who pitches 4 innings. The guy who pitches six innings is giving up 3.3 R/P Outing in 6 innings while the 5.0 ERA guy who's only pitching 4 innings is giving up 6 runs in his 4 innings.

 

ERA is a nice stat if one considers the number of innings pitched but obviously all 5.0 ERA pitchers aren't created equal. While I'm not trying to make a case that Poricllo is worth $20M at the same time a starter who only gives up 3.3 runs in 6 innings is a pitcher who's keeping his team in the game. That's worth quite a lot to a team that scores runs like the Red Sox do.

 

ERA is based on per nine innings pitched. A guy giving up 6 runs in 4 inning will have an ERA of 6 x 9/4 or 13.50 and not 5.0.

 

Now I agree that starting pitcher with 5.0 ERA who pitches 6 innings has more value than a guy who pitches 4 innings per start.

[moonslav59]

ERA is based on per nine innings pitched. A guy giving up 6 runs in 4 inning will have an ERA of 6 x 9/4 or 13.50 and not 5.0.

 

Now I agree that starting pitcher with 5.0 ERA who pitches 6 innings has more value than a guy who pitches 4 innings per start.

 

What's worth more, a guy who lets up 4.5 in 6 innings or 2.5 in 4 innings?

[Bellhorn04]

What's worth more, a guy who lets up 4.5 in 6 innings or 2.5 in 4 innings?

 

Neither are worth anything LOL

[moonslav59]

Neither are worth anything LOL

 

Well, Porcello let up just under 4 per 6, and you said he'll be hard to replace. That's almost 4.5 in 6.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, Porcello let up just under 4 per 6, and you said he'll be hard to replace. That's almost 4.5 in 6.

 

Porcello had an awful season. Like Dewey, I don't really think he's a 5.5 ERA pitcher and I won't be surprised if he bounces back nicely next year.

 

It's his durability that will really be missed. He's a guy you never have to worry about taking the ball every 5th day - a very rare commodity now.

[moonslav59]

Porcello had an awful season. Like Dewey, I don't really think he's a 5.5 ERA pitcher and I won't be surprised if he bounces back nicely next year.

 

It's his durability that will really be missed. He's a guy you never have to worry about taking the ball every 5th day - a very rare commodity now.

 

He's on the wrong side of 30, now, and he has a 4.80 ERA (1.32 WHIP) the last 3 years combined.

 

Getting 6 IP almost every start and a 4.80 ERA is pretty good for a #4 or 5, but I'm not so sure about him being closer to 4.80 than 5.50, next year.

 

He probably needs a chance of scenery.

[sk7326]

No team assures 4-5 years.

 

I do think there may be a little apprehension after watching a guy win 3 straight divisions and WS ring and get canned over one season, but I think most GM candidates can see there's more to it than that, and they would love to work under Henry and know they will have a budget larger than just about everyone after 2020.

 

It's a large budget. Now I am not sure that GMs will so obviously see it. "Okay, to the guy asked me to cash in our farm assets for the major league club. The boss greenlighted all these extensions and then sacked me when the talk show callers got mad at the team." This is a desirable job - but it's pretty great that the Steinbrenners are demonstrably better bosses.

[sk7326]

Porcello had an awful season. Like Dewey, I don't really think he's a 5.5 ERA pitcher and I won't be surprised if he bounces back nicely next year.

 

It's his durability that will really be missed. He's a guy you never have to worry about taking the ball every 5th day - a very rare commodity now.

 

Porcello at his current salary is insane. But bringing back Porcello for a lower number is not because of the durability. He had a terrible season - but stylistically can probably still be a useful back end starter. Weirdly his batted ball stats did not change all that much - at least in terms of hard contact. But he allowed more fly balls, and in juiced ball 2019 that is a very bad thing.

[sk7326]

Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

You spelled Mookie wrong

[jacksonianmarch]

It's a large budget. Now I am not sure that GMs will so obviously see it. "Okay, to the guy asked me to cash in our farm assets for the major league club. The boss greenlighted all these extensions and then sacked me when the talk show callers got mad at the team." This is a desirable job - but it's pretty great that the Steinbrenners are demonstrably better bosses.

 

Whomever JH picks needs to be given the keys and the directive. JH gets impatient. If he is committing to return to prominence, then he has to keep the checkbook open. If he commits to a rebuild, he needs to allow it to happen

[sk7326]

Whomever JH picks needs to be given the keys and the directive. JH gets impatient. If he is committing to return to prominence, then he has to keep the checkbook open. If he commits to a rebuild, he needs to allow it to happen

 

Right. My issue with the Dombrowski thing is that Henry is not copping to being responsible for the directive. It's a demanding fan base - like it should be for the prices they pay - and Henry has consistently shown very little stomach for absorbing criticism when anything does not turn out amazing.

[d-money]

So this team is shedding payroll to stink next year as well or what? How does that work? This is on management with some ridiculous contracts. Now they’re trying to wipe their hands off.

[moonslav59]

It's a large budget. Now I am not sure that GMs will so obviously see it. "Okay, to the guy asked me to cash in our farm assets for the major league club. The boss greenlighted all these extensions and then sacked me when the talk show callers got mad at the team." This is a desirable job - but it's pretty great that the Steinbrenners are demonstrably better bosses.

 

lmao

[moonslav59]

A look at some 2019 Sox numbers:

 

We came 1 HR short of having four 30 HR players:

36 JD

33 Bogey

32 Devers

29 Betts

23 Vaz

21 JBJ

19 Moreland

18 Chavis

13 Beni

 

XBH Leaders:

90 Devers

85 Bogey

74 Betts

71 JD

58 Beni

 

OPS (PAs listed if not qualified)

.939 Bogey

.939 JD

.916 Devers

.915 Betts

.835 Moreland (335)

.798 Vaz

.774 Benu

.771 Holt (295)

.766 Chavis (382)

.738 JBJ

.656 Travis (157)

.617 Marco (155)

.548 Leon (191)

.548 Nunez (174)

.503 Pearce (99)

 

ERA-

39 Workman

63 Taylor

78 Barnes

79 ERod

79 Walden

80 Hembree

85 Brewer

89 Price

91 Sale

92 DHern

100 Brasier

105 Weber

113 Velazquez

114 Porcello

120 Smith

124 Eovaldi

125 Johnson

129 Cashner

 

WHIP

1.03 Workman

1.09 Sale

1.18 Taylor

1.19 Walden

1.29 Brasier

1.31 Price

1.33 ERod

1.38 Barnes

1.39 Porcello

1.53 Velazquez

1.58 Eovaldi

1.62 Cashner

1.70 Brewer

 

xFIP

2.93 Barnes

2.93 Sale

3.33 Workman

3.37 Taylor

3.57 DHern

3.73 Price

4.10 ERod

4.17 Walden

4.89 Eovaldi

5.14 Porcello