A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

I has a feeling Cora wanted Leon all along. I never understood the reasoning for Swihart other than to hope to build trade value had he got off to an .850 start.

 

My guess is that DD or someone thought Swihart could be an adequate backup catcher and OPS 100 points higher than Leon.

[moonslav59]

That could certainly be true about the pen. But in the big picture the pen wasn't the real problem, it was the starters. E-Rod was the only one who pitched well and pitched all season.

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Cashner, Johnson, Velazquez and whoever we called up from the minors ranged from bad to hurt to horrendous.

 

The blown saves sucked, and I get the argument that you can't say the pen did okay with so many blown saves, but I'm going to say it anyway. The pen did okay. They kept us in games that the starters put us in deep holes.They went extra innings often. They provided many "pen games," many of which ended up with 4, 5 or less runs allowed.

 

Eearlier, this year, I went back and looked at every game- one by one- to determine who was mostly at fault for our losses and who was mostly the reason we won each game- the starter or the pen.It wasn't even close. The pen won us way more games and lost way fewer games than the starters. The record since that study does not appear to have favored the starters. Our pen has been pretty good the last 6-8 weeks.

 

The SP'ing in by far the major reason for the negative turn-around.

 

[sk7326]

My guess is that DD or someone thought Swihart could be an adequate backup catcher and OPS 100 points higher than Leon.

 

I think a lot of the staff thought Swihart had the most raw talent of their catchers and it was worth looking into it. It didn't work out - though the FO did steer out of it fairly quickly.

[moonslav59]

My guess is that DD or someone thought Swihart could be an adequate backup catcher and OPS 100 points higher than Leon.

 

I've said all along, even a 200 or 300 point advantage from one guy will not make up for a 1.00 rise in team ERA.

 

As it turned out, the OPS advantage was near negligible, and the ERA spike was way over 1.50.

 

CERA by Starter:

 

Porcello

4.44 Leon

6.37 Vaz

13.50 Swi

 

Sale

3.79 Leon

6.68 Vaz

 

(An argument could be made that Leon should have caught every game by Sale & Porcello.)

 

Price:

4.15 Vaz (4.27 career)

5.59 Leon (2.96 career)

 

ERod

3.58 Vaz (3.99 career)

4.34 Leon (4.05 career)

10.39 Swi (4.44 career)

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by moonslav59

[sk7326]

The blown saves sucked, and I get the argument that you can't say the pen did okay with so many blown saves, but I'm going to say it anyway. The pen did okay. They kept us in games that the starters put us in deep holes.They went extra innings often. They provided many "pen games," many of which ended up with 4, 5 or less runs allowed.

 

Eearlier, this year, I went back and looked at every game- one by one- to determine who was mostly at fault for our losses and who was mostly the reason we won each game- the starter or the pen.It wasn't even close. The pen won us way more games and lost way fewer games than the starters. The record since that study does not appear to have favored the starters. Our pen has been pretty good the last 6-8 weeks.

 

The SP'ing in by far the major reason for the negative turn-around.

 

 

This team has 3 players who are going to get MVP votes this year and one who will get a couple of Cy ones and somehow won't get 90 wins. It was all about the starting pitching collapsing.

[Bellhorn04]

Eearlier, this year, I went back and looked at every game- one by one- to determine who was mostly at fault for our losses and who was mostly the reason we won each game- the starter or the pen.It wasn't even close. The pen won us way more games and lost way fewer games than the starters. The record since that study does not appear to have favored the starters.

 

That was good stuff when you did that. Sometimes the only way to analyze things is to go through every damn game log.

[kenmeister]

That could certainly be true about the pen. But in the big picture the pen wasn't the real problem, it was the starters. E-Rod was the only one who pitched well and pitched all season.

 

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Cashner, Johnson, Velazquez and whoever we called up from the minors ranged from bad to hurt to horrendous.

 

I'd still bring Porcello back for the right price. He's a workhorse and even on a "bad" year his record was a respectable 14-12. Given that Sale, Price, & Eovaldi can't seem to pitch more than half a season, someone who doesn't hit the injured list is pretty important.

[Slasher9]

I still say overblown. It's trying to blame everything on the simplest, most convenient reason.

 

yet people within the organization and embedded with the organizations keep bringing it up. Its late september and still being brought up. to me that does NOT scream "overblown".

[Slasher9]

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, Cashner, Johnson, Velazquez and whoever we called up from the minors ranged from bad to hurt to horrendous.

 

correct. and if spring training was actually utilized both physically and mentally nobody would have gotten hurt and all would have pitched to a sub 3 ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

yet people within the organization and embedded with the organizations keep bringing it up. Its late september and still being brought up. to me that does NOT scream "overblown".

 

Because it's got the pungent aroma of controversy and finger-pointing. Like chicken and beer. That stuff always has legs.

[Slasher9]

Something that is almost forgotten about the early stage dysfunction was the backup catcher controversy.

 

Apparently DD was the one who made the call of starting the season with Swihart instead of Leon. Leon was DFA'd and could have been a goner if any other teams were interested.

 

Then the pitching and Swihart get off to a crappy start and back comes Leon.

 

good point.

#leongate

[Bellhorn04]

correct. and if spring training was actually utilized both physically and mentally nobody would have gotten hurt and all would have pitched to a sub 3 ERA.

 

Even Cashner?

[moonslav59]

I think a lot of the staff thought Swihart had the most raw talent of their catchers and it was worth looking into it. It didn't work out - though the FO did steer out of it fairly quickly.

 

Not the pitching "staff"- maybe the coaching staff, yes.

[Elktonnick]

Something that is almost forgotten about the early stage dysfunction was the backup catcher controversy.

 

Apparently DD was the one who made the call of starting the season with Swihart instead of Leon. Leon was DFA'd and could have been a goner if any other teams were interested.

 

Then the pitching and Swihart get off to a crappy start and back comes Leon.

 

I think Sale was the big reason for bringing Leon back. I believe Sale did not care to pitch to either Vazquez or Swihart. Whatever the catching controversy added to the mix it all comes back to there being internal divisions on pitching which apparently gave the front office the appearance of chaos dysfunction and DD's isolation that so many have spoken about.

 

For me the big issue will be: will JH go outside the organization for DD's replacement ? And, will the departure of DD result in a major shakeup in the way the Sox approach pitching that so many like Jim Rice are advocating.

[Slasher9]

Even Cashner?

 

we would never had to trade for him!

[moonslav59]

I think Sale was the big reason for bringing Leon back. I believe Sale did not care to pitch to either Vazquez or Swihart. Whatever the catching controversy added to the mix it all comes back to there being internal divisions on pitching which apparently gave the front office the appearance of chaos dysfunction and DD's isolation that so many have spoken about.

 

For me the big issue will be: will JH go outside the organization for DD's replacement ? And, will the departure of DD result in a major shakeup in the way the Sox approach pitching that so many like Jim Rice are advocating.

 

Personally, I think we need to shake up our whole philosophy on pitching- from drafting, developing, coaching, evaluating, attending to their physical needs and more. That probably means bringing in an outsider with a known history of success with pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

For me the big issue will be: will JH go outside the organization for DD's replacement ? And, will the departure of DD result in a major shakeup in the way the Sox approach pitching that so many like Jim Rice are advocating.

 

Maybe there will be some changes in approach.

 

I would point out, though, that in 2018 our pitching, with virtually the same personnel, was pretty damn good.

 

Baseball is just a tough game to figure out sometimes.

[Bellhorn04]

we would never had to trade for him!

 

OK, well played.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe there will be some changes in approach.

 

I would point out, though, that in 2018 our pitching, with virtually the same personnel, was pretty damn good.

 

Baseball is just a tough game to figure out sometimes.

 

 

Pitcher's break. Some injuries are worse than others. Not hard to figure out. Depth on the mound is imperative in today's game. Players don't adapt to soreness or play through pain. They feel a tweak and end up on the IL for 2 months. This is what happened to the sox. Not a single viable contingency beyond the predicted starting 5. You need a good starting five plus 3-4 players who are at least capable of filling in (prospects, retreads, etc). The sox had zero

[kenmeister]

Even Cashner?

 

While he flamed out as a starter, I thought he was pretty good in the pen. I hope we bring him back next year as our long reliever (over Johnson/Velazquez/Wright)

[sk7326]

Personally, I think we need to shake up our whole philosophy on pitching- from drafting, developing, coaching, evaluating, attending to their physical needs and more. That probably means bringing in an outsider with a known history of success with pitchers.

 

What is interesting is that Dombrowski really did in his drafting reflect a bit of a sea change from the predecessors who often chose the relative safety of position players. But Dombrowski actually drafted pitchers. Of course Groome gets hurt right away - and that shows the risk in the approach. But acquiring pitching talent has decidedly been an organizational blind spot.

[moonslav59]

What is interesting is that Dombrowski really did in his drafting reflect a bit of a sea change from the predecessors who often chose the relative safety of position players. But Dombrowski actually drafted pitchers. Of course Groome gets hurt right away - and that shows the risk in the approach. But acquiring pitching talent has decidedly been an organizational blind spot.

 

Fact is, DD has drafted less pitching with his first picks (since 2007):

 

Theo's last 5 years

2007:1st pick LHP (Hagadone) 4th (Huntzinger) 5th (Province)

2008: 1st RHP (Kelly) 2nd (B Price) 4th (Fife) 5th (Weiland)

2009: 2nd (Wilson)6th (Kline)

2010: 3rd (Ranaudo) 4th (Workman)

2011: 1st (Barnes) 3rd (Owens)

 

Ben

2012: 2nd (Johnson) 3rd (Light) 4th (Callahan) 5th (Maddox) 6th (Buttrey) (next 3 RHPs)

2013: 1st (T Ball) 2nd (Stanki) 4th (M Smith) 5th (Littrell)

2014: 2nd (Kopech) 4th (Cosart) 5th (McAvoy)

2015: 5th (Lakins) 6th (B Taylor) 7th (L Allen) Not a bad pitcher draft for low picks.

 

DD

2016: 1st (Groome) 3rd (Anderson) 5th (Shawaryn) 6th (Nogosek)

2017: 1st (Houck) 4th (Thompson) 5th (Scherff) 6th (Schellenger)

2018: 3rd (Feltman) 5th (T Ward)

2019: 3rd (Zeferjahn) 4th (Song)

 

Since 2007, we've drafted pitchers more than non pitchers (only Theo's last 4 years).

 

All 4 year sample sizes:

 

Top 2 Picks:

DD 2 out of 8

Ben 4 out of 8

Theo 4 out of 8

Total: 10 out of 24 (6 out of last 16)

 

Top 6 Picks:

DD 12 out of 24

Ben 14 out of 24

Theo 10 out of 24

Total: 36 out of 72 (26 out of last 48)

 

Edited September 27, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[S5Dewey]

Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

Aside from the LT and salary issues, I found this quote to be interesting:

 

"The circumstances of Dombrowski’s departure remain a hot topic, ..... Henry explains that differences arose in the immediate aftermath of last year’s World Series win and couldn’t be bridged throughout the ensuing campaign."

[moonslav59]

Aside from the LT and salary issues, I found this quote to be interesting:

 

"The circumstances of Dombrowski’s departure remain a hot topic, ..... Henry explains that differences arose in the immediate aftermath of last year’s World Series win and couldn’t be bridged throughout the ensuing campaign."

 

Someday, we may learn the specifics. I wonder, if that was when the contract issue arose.

[S5Dewey]

Someday, we may learn the specifics. I wonder, if that was when the contract issue arose.

 

It would make sense. If DD was looking for an extension while in the afterglow of the WSC and JH refused to give it to him, THEN the team went into the swoon... that would explain it.

[S5Dewey]

I have to admit that this is disappointing. I thought (hoped?) the FO would see the talent on the team and give it another shot, then reset the tax after the big contracts became unmanageable. Now we may be looking at another season like this one, only without the talent to turn it around quickly.

[moonslav59]

I have to admit that this is disappointing. I thought (hoped?) the FO would see the talent on the team and give it another shot, then reset the tax after the big contracts became unmanageable. Now we may be looking at another season like this one, only without the talent to turn it around quickly.

 

We could have the same team- maybe healthier, but without just JBJ.

 

We'd have enough money to spend on a cheap defensive only CF'er and a pen arm.

[jacksonianmarch]

To get under the lux tax you need to lose more than JBJ. When I did my analysis on the Sox, I think the Sox had $26 mil below the final threshold if the whole team returned. Losing JBJ and his projected $10 mil salary still has you over the first threshold by $4 mil

[moonslav59]

To get under the lux tax you need to lose more than JBJ. When I did my analysis on the Sox, I think the Sox had $26 mil below the final threshold if the whole team returned. Losing JBJ and his projected $10 mil salary still has you over the first threshold by $4 mil

 

Not by my calculations. I have us at about $4-6M under, if we lose JBJ's $10M estimated arb cost. (Leon or another catcher at min wage. No Wright.)

 

Tax Dollars (*arb estimate)

31 Price

27* Betts

26 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

11* ERod

10* JBJ

7* Beni

3* Barnes

4 Vaz

3* Workman

2* Hembree

2* Leon

1* Wright

Nobody else over $1M

$2M for the rest of the 40 man roster

 

Total $187M without JBJ, Wright & Leon

+$15M Player benefits

 

$202M Total

 

$6M to spend on FAs.

 

If my arb numbers are low, maybe we trade Hembree.

 

I also think we may look to trade JD or Eovaldi, but that would radically change the talent level of the team, assuming both are healthy all 2020.