A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[OH FOY]

Buxton of the Twins was #1 overall Prospect 2 years in a row.

[OH FOY]

Talking about Buxton, he might need a change of scenery, if JBJ is moved. He might be a better CF then Bradley, and he has struggled with the Twins, much cheaper too, and younger.

Twins gave up on Hicks, and turned out pretty good with the Yanks, as a CF, when he is not hurt.

[Slasher9]

For me no problem if you like going to sites and thinking everything is a sure thing by them.

I need more, basically its how they perform as they move up in Leagues and tougher competition and Age that your facing compared to how old you are.

 

i think the point is the trade value of espinoza at the time he was dealt for Pom. Pom who was a reliever for years and then a starter for 1/2 a year was not the pitcher to obtain with the trade value of espinoza. it does not matter whether or not espi ever pitches in the MLB - it was his potential that should have been bundled for a TOTR SP (see: sale, chris).

[moonslav59]

i think the point is the trade value of espinoza at the time he was dealt for Pom. Pom who was a reliever for years and then a starter for 1/2 a year was not the pitcher to obtain with the trade value of espinoza. it does not matter whether or not espi ever pitches in the MLB - it was his potential that should have been bundled for a TOTR SP (see: sale, chris).

 

Pom had actually started more than 1/2 year before the trade.

22 starts in 2012 (no relief).

4 in 2013.

10 starts in 2014.

9 starts in 2015.

17 starts in 2016 before the trade.

 

[notin]

i think the point is the trade value of espinoza at the time he was dealt for Pom. Pom who was a reliever for years and then a starter for 1/2 a year was not the pitcher to obtain with the trade value of espinoza. it does not matter whether or not espi ever pitches in the MLB - it was his potential that should have been bundled for a TOTR SP (see: sale, chris).

 

I can see your point.

 

On the other hand, Pomeranz himself was a former highly ranked prospect just like Espinoza. He actually made a lot of starts prior to coming to Boston, but had frequent arm troubles, which usually limited him and relegated him to the occasional bullpen role. And also why so many teams gave up on him so quickly. He certainly had talent. Just trouble staying on the field.

 

Espinoza was in the same boat. He had a ton of talent, but also was starting to experience some arm troubles of his own. And in his case, he simply never got better. There are reasons to say this deal was justified, and the results did bear it out as well...

[notin]

Pom had actually started more than 1/2 year before the trade.

22 starts in 2012 (no relief).

4 in 2013.

10 starts in 2014.

9 starts in 2015.

17 starts in 2016 before the trade.

 

 

And in 2013, he only pitched in 8 games, which is why only 4 starts...

[notin]

Talking about Buxton, he might need a change of scenery, if JBJ is moved. He might be a better CF then Bradley, and he has struggled with the Twins, much cheaper too, and younger.

Twins gave up on Hicks, and turned out pretty good with the Yanks, as a CF, when he is not hurt.

 

I love Buxton, but he is another one who simply cannot stay healthy. As it stands now, he might not even be ready to start the 2020 season.

 

Buxton has only played 152 games in 2018 and 2019 combined, counting his minor league appearances...

[notin]

Buxton of the Twins was #1 overall Prospect 2 years in a row.

 

It seems like a lot of those guys who make multiple appearances in the top 5 tend to be busts more frequently than you might think. Names like Corey Patterson and Jesus Montero being prime examples. (Although Joe Mauer and Jason Heyward worked out.)

[jacksonianmarch]

Buxton had a big WAR in a small sample size this year. The guys who play with reckless abandon are often hurt

[notin]

Buxton had a big WAR in a small sample size this year. The guys who play with reckless abandon are often hurt

 

See Castillo, Rusney...

[moonslav59]

I can see your point.

 

On the other hand, Pomeranz himself was a former highly ranked prospect just like Espinoza. He actually made a lot of starts prior to coming to Boston, but had frequent arm troubles, which usually limited him and relegated him to the occasional bullpen role. And also why so many teams gave up on him so quickly. He certainly had talent. Just trouble staying on the field.

 

Espinoza was in the same boat. He had a ton of talent, but also was starting to experience some arm troubles of his own. And in his case, he simply never got better. There are reasons to say this deal was justified, and the results did bear it out as well...

 

Espi had arm troubles before the trade?

[notin]

Espi had arm troubles before the trade?

 

Wasn’t his first T.J. while still in Boston?

[Slasher9]

Espi had arm troubles before the trade?

 

No. He was completely healthy at the time of the trade.

[moonslav59]

No. He was completely healthy at the time of the trade.

 

Yes, you are right.

 

He pitched in 8 games for the Fort Wayne Tin Caps (starting 7 of them) before injuring his arm and needing his first Tommy John surgery.

[notin]

Yes, you are right.

 

He pitched in 8 games for the Fort Wayne Tin Caps (starting 7 of them) before injuring his arm and needing his first Tommy John surgery.

 

My mistake.

 

Bottom line, while I thought that deal was an overpay at the time, I don’t know if Dombrowski gave up Espinoza because he simply conceded to the high price or because his people advised him that Espinoza might be a health risk.

 

If we judge that trade by hindsight, it certainly worked out for Boston...

[Bellhorn04]

My mistake.

 

Bottom line, while I thought that deal was an overpay at the time, I don’t know if Dombrowski gave up Espinoza because he simply conceded to the high price or because his people advised him that Espinoza might be a health risk.

 

If we judge that trade by hindsight, it certainly worked out for Boston...

 

It worked out OK. But Pomeranz turned out to be a bit of a dud after a promising start.

[notin]

It worked out OK. But Pomeranz turned out to be a bit of a dud after a promising start.

 

He had some injury problems in 2018 and never got going. But he was stellar in 2017.

 

The Sox got 2 1/2 years of Major League starts for a pitcher who threw 32 minor league innings in 2016. If we kept Espinoza and he got hurt, he’d actually have less value to the organization than Jay Groome...

[Bellhorn04]

Yep, the Hindsight Jury has acquitted the Espinoza trade.

[notin]

Yep, the Hindsight Jury has acquitted the Espinoza trade.

 

I think sometimes the Hindsight Jury needs to include the caveat that maybe the front office actually knew something...

[moonslav59]

My mistake.

 

Bottom line, while I thought that deal was an overpay at the time, I don’t know if Dombrowski gave up Espinoza because he simply conceded to the high price or because his people advised him that Espinoza might be a health risk.

 

If we judge that trade by hindsight, it certainly worked out for Boston...

 

Did it?

 

Pom certainly did well for some of the time here, but he was not ever a big part of us winning a ring. We don't know what Espi will do- post surgeries.

 

Plus, my point was never about not trading ESpi, it was about making more trades like Sale and not Pom, Thornburg and Kimbrel.

[Bellhorn04]

Did it?

 

Pom certainly did well for some of the time here, but he was not ever a big part of us winning a ring. We don't know what Espi will do- post surgeries.

 

Plus, my point was never about not trading ESpi, it was about making more trades like Sale and not Pom, Thornburg and Kimbrel.

 

More trades like Sale? Not sure that was actually possible.

[jacksonianmarch]

More trades like Sale? Not sure that was actually possible.

 

You dealt the #1 prospect in baseball and another top 20 guy in Kopech to get Sale. You cannot replicate that

[notin]

You dealt the #1 prospect in baseball and another top 20 guy in Kopech to get Sale. You cannot replicate that

 

The Sale deal was the cost of doing business. I would say the same about the Thornburg deal. The trade for Kimbrel was an overpay and the trade for Smith might have been a lack of homework.

 

The trades for Nunez and Kinsler I can call the cost of doing business, but in both cases the Sox gave up an arm who is actually doing well in MLB...

[OH FOY]

Guys going by DSL stats and saying DSL Prospects are over paying. Crazy. Any unreal Prospect there is so young, no Team would get rid of them, especially if they go to the real Minor Leagues, starting in Single A, and start dominating.

Never.

DSL and GCL are good to see young talent, but not the place to say he's the next Pedro.

Pedro never had any problem going to any league and dominated, against any age.

Edited September 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

Guys going by DSL stats and saying DSL Prospects are over paying. Crazy. Any unreal Prospect there is so young, no Team would get rid of them, especially if they go to the real Minor Leagues, starting in Single A, and start dominating.

Never.

DSL and GCL are good to see young talent, but not the place to say he's the next Pedro.

 

The only deal I would definitively say was an overpay was for Kimbrel. The Sox gave up two BA top 100 prospects at the time, along with another pitching prospect in the top 10 of a deep farm, and took on the entire contract.

 

Fans criticize the Thornburg deal because it didn't work out. But to give up a decent 1b/3b and an unranked INF prospect for 3 years of a pre-arbitration closer seems like the cost of doing business. Actually, compared to what other pre-arb closers like Ken Giles went for, it might even be a cheap deal. But it became a bad one because Thornburg got hurt and never recovered and Dubon panned out...

[S5Dewey]

I think sometimes the Hindsight Jury needs to include the caveat that maybe the front office actually knew something...

 

Now, THAT's not going to happen! :D

[Slasher9]

He had some injury problems in 2018 and never got going. But he was stellar in 2017.

 

The Sox got 2 1/2 years of Major League starts for a pitcher who threw 32 minor league innings in 2016. If we kept Espinoza and he got hurt, he’d actually have less value to the organization than Jay Groome...

 

perhaps he doesnt get hurt if he stays on the Sox. perhaps he stays healthy long enough for him to replace moncada in the Sale trade.

perhaps moncada is our 2bman for the next 5 years.

pom was a bust. he was a reliever that most here fawned over like he was a stud starter. he wasnt. and he never was going to be.

 

it was an overpay of epic proprtions.

[Bellhorn04]

perhaps he doesnt get hurt if he stays on the Sox. perhaps he stays healthy long enough for him to replace moncada in the Sale trade.

perhaps moncada is our 2bman for the next 5 years.

pom was a bust. he was a reliever that most here fawned over like he was a stud starter. he wasnt. and he never was going to be.

 

it was an overpay of epic proprtions.

 

Dombrowski was in a tough spot there. The rotation was depleted and the season threatening to fall apart. And Pomeranz was the best arm available at the time.

 

Sometimes you get forced into an overpay. Just ask Theo, trading Torres for the Chapman rental.

[dgalehouse]

The hype for Espinosa was all a misunderstanding . Some scout said he was " the next Pedro ". But he meant Pedro Beato , not Pedro Martinez .

[notin]

perhaps he doesnt get hurt if he stays on the Sox. perhaps he stays healthy long enough for him to replace moncada in the Sale trade.

perhaps moncada is our 2bman for the next 5 years.

pom was a bust. he was a reliever that most here fawned over like he was a stud starter. he wasnt. and he never was going to be.

 

it was an overpay of epic proprtions.

 

Pomeranz pitched in the All Star Game as a starter 4 days before we acquired him. His first full season in Boston, he was 17-6 with a 3.32ERA.