A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[OH FOY]

Bad Pitching always catches up to you in the Play-offs. During season you get by with so many bad teams.

[Slasher9]

It’s still the first stat they show every time a pitcher steps on the mound. Just like BA is the first stat they show every time a batter steps in the box.

[dgalehouse]

It’s still the first stat they show every time a pitcher steps on the mound. Just like BA is the first stat they show every time a batter steps in the box.

 

The basic , traditional stats are still what the average fan looks at . Not too many are into the advanced , analytical alphabet soup stats that are so prevalent these days . You won't hear a lot of talk about xyzWoba or bFip in the bleachers .

[notin]

It’s still the first stat they show every time a pitcher steps on the mound. Just like BA is the first stat they show every time a batter steps in the box.

 

The common use of wins to evaluate a pitcher is also the reason a sportswriter developed ERA...

[harmony]

The basic , traditional stats are still what the average fan looks at . Not too many are into the advanced , analytical alphabet soup stats that are so prevalent these days . You won't hear a lot of talk about xyzWoba or bFip in the bleachers .

That's why they'll remain in the bleachers (having fun nonetheless).

[jacksonianmarch]

Bad Pitching always catches up to you in the Play-offs. During season you get by with so many bad teams.

 

we are over .600 against teams with a winning record

[Maxbialystock]

Bad Pitching always catches up to you in the Play-offs. During season you get by with so many bad teams.

 

You don't think the Sox did that last year and that the overwhelming majority of talksox posters insist that they do it again this year? We have some here who think the Sox actually must sweep any last place or below .400 team they face. I don't expect that. But I do watch with great interest any game against a team with a winning record or better still playing .600 or better ball.

 

Last year the Sox got off to a great start, but then lost some games. Meanwhile, the Yankees were coming on like a freight train and somewhere around June I think the Sox played 3 at NY and only won 1 of the 3. But I was delighted--to a degree--because they played the Yankees tough in all three games and could have won all three. That's when I decided the 2018 Sox were as good as their won-lost record, which U somewhat distrusted.

 

Now the question is whether these Sox are better than this year's won-lost record, so once again I'm looking at the games against the Rays, Yankees, Twins, Guardians, Astros, etc. Of course I didn't like losing 2 of 3 to the lowly Orioles, but that can happen, which is actually great for MLB if not the the Sox.

 

Now the Sox are playing 14 straight against the Rays and Yankees--which to me is great iis a great time to be a Sox fan with access to TV/internet.

 

Oh, and I definitely agree that bad pitching can/will catch up to you in the playoffs. That applies to the Yankees, and, since their pitching is actually better than ours, it definitely applies to us.

Edited July 26, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Like it, keep it simple. I always look at Innings Pitched and hits allowed next. The very good ones give up very little hits. Then walks and then K's. And last HRS allowed, to innings pitched.

 

I like ERA- and OPS Against.

 

I use WHIP a lot, because it's easier to find.

 

I'm not big on K/9 or xFIP, but the K/BB ratio is of better use for me.

 

IP is important for placing value on a pitcher but does not really help with determining who is better at getting someone out.

 

[cp176]

You should always look at a pitcher's won - lost record in conjunction with his ERA . If they are both good , you probably have a good pitcher . If one or the other is out of line , you can look for a reason why .

 

Of course this is an accurate statement. Most stats are flawed as is just about everything else. There are always different ways to look at things and of course it is necessary to use all tools available when evaluating anything but as a very general statement I like pitchers who win. In the long run, I guess I think that the pitchers who win more than they lose are pretty good.

[moonslav59]

Of course this is an accurate statement. Most stats are flawed as is just about everything else. There are always different ways to look at things and of course it is necessary to use all tools available when evaluating anything but as a very general statement I like pitchers who win. In the long run, I guess I think that the pitchers who win more than they lose are pretty good.

 

Team record in starts would cover that better than the pitcher's W-L record, but even that really penalizes pitchers who have poor run support and/or a pen that can't close the deal in low scoring, close games.

[Bellhorn04]

The basic , traditional stats are still what the average fan looks at . Not too many are into the advanced , analytical alphabet soup stats that are so prevalent these days . You won't hear a lot of talk about xyzWoba or bFip in the bleachers .

 

Even the fans in the bleachers now know a pitcher's W-L record is a very unreliable indicator of performance.

[moonslav59]

Even the fans in the bleachers now know a pitcher's W-L record is a very unreliable indicator of performance.

 

The guy in the restroom, though, has no clue.

[cp176]

Even the fans in the bleachers now know a pitcher's W-L record is a very unreliable indicator of performance.

 

I think that everyone knows that taken in isolation a pitcher's won loss record is an unreliable means of evaluating a pitcher's overall performance. We know that. I'm a fairly good fan of the game but I have to say that I find the advanced stat overload cumbersome and for the most part meaningless to me. I'm not going to be making the trades or signing the players to come to play. I want to watch them play. I think that there is a place for all of us. I do not think that understanding what every advanced stat in existence being used today necessarily makes a person a better fan of the actual game of baseball. They serve a purpose just not for everyone.

[Slasher9]

Even the fans in the bleachers now know a pitcher's W-L record is a very unreliable indicator of performance.

 

Exactly. So why does NESN, ESPN, and every other mlb team station still show these stats first and foremost?

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. So why does NESN, ESPN, and every other mlb team station still show these stats first and foremost?

 

Part of that is just what you might call force of habit or sticking with the familiar, I guess.

 

I think a starting pitcher's W-L record is still something of interest, and in some cases it can be indicative of how they've pitched. It's just another one of those numbers that have to be looked at in context to other numbers, especially run support.

[OH FOY]

I think E-Rod leads the AL in getting run support. I'll look at him differently now. Edited July 27, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

I think E-Rod leads the AL in getting run support. I'll look at him differently now.

 

E-Rod has been a human rabbit's paw the last 2 seasons with the run support.

[OH FOY]

Yeah, now lets get it done today.

[notin]

Exactly. So why does NESN, ESPN, and every other mlb team station still show these stats first and foremost?

 

Recognizability. Understandability. Familiarity.

 

Or are you saying they show W-L record because it’s really good indicator of a good pitcher?

[OH FOY]

55 games left, getting to the Far Turn. Getting close for Jockey to start using the Whip.

[moonslav59]

I think that everyone knows that taken in isolation a pitcher's won loss record is an unreliable means of evaluating a pitcher's overall performance. We know that. I'm a fairly good fan of the game but I have to say that I find the advanced stat overload cumbersome and for the most part meaningless to me. I'm not going to be making the trades or signing the players to come to play. I want to watch them play. I think that there is a place for all of us. I do not think that understanding what every advanced stat in existence being used today necessarily makes a person a better fan of the actual game of baseball. They serve a purpose just not for everyone.

 

Well said.

[dgalehouse]

It was 41 years ago that the Yankees came in to Fenway and turned the season around by sweeping the Red Sox in what became known as the Boston Massacre . Could we be witnessing the reverse of that right now ? Very possible . Stay tuned .

[moonslav59]

It was 41 years ago that the Yankees came in to Fenway and turned the season around by sweeping the Red Sox in what became known as the Boston Massacre . Could we be witnessing the reverse of that right now ? Very possible . Stay tuned .

 

I thought of the same thing while watching the game last night.

 

I've thought, all along, that the Yanks would have a rough patch at some point, despite getting several players back off the IL. This is a great time for that to start, but there are still many games to be played.

 

Yes, "stay tuned" to this developing story.

 

Things are also looking better for the 2nd WC slot, as Oakland is starting to struggle a little bit.

 

Next up: CLE needs to slump.

 

We are 9 down on the Yanks.

We are 4 down on CLE for the top WC slot.

We are 0.5 down on TB for the last WC slot (tied in loss column.)

We are tied with OAK for that slot.

[dgalehouse]

Even the fans in the bleachers now know a pitcher's W-L record is a very unreliable indicator of performance.

 

It is my belief that the average baseball fan is not into the ever growing , advanced metric alphabet soup of stats . When they look at pitchers , they look at wins , losses , ERA , saves , blown saves and strikeouts . When they look at hitters , they look at batting average , home runs , doubles , RBIs , runs scored and stolen bases . For those who enjoy the analytics , fine . Enjoy it . But I don't see it gaining widespread popularity any time soon .

[Bellhorn04]

It is my belief that the average baseball fan is not into the ever growing , advanced metric alphabet soup of stats . When they look at pitchers , they look at wins , losses , ERA , saves , blown saves and strikeouts . When they look at hitters , they look at batting average , home runs , doubles , RBIs , runs scored and stolen bases . For those who enjoy the analytics , fine . Enjoy it . But I don't see it gaining widespread popularity any time soon .

 

How do you know all this, Denny? Do you actually sit in the bleachers at a lot of games and talk to these average fans?

 

When I go on message boards (I visit some other ones as well), I see a lot of comments that use newer stats.

 

Which suggests to me that there are a lot of people interested in them - and it seems to me anything that promotes interest is a good thing.

[notin]

It is my belief that the average baseball fan is not into the ever growing , advanced metric alphabet soup of stats . When they look at pitchers , they look at wins , losses , ERA , saves , blown saves and strikeouts . When they look at hitters , they look at batting average , home runs , doubles , RBIs , runs scored and stolen bases . For those who enjoy the analytics , fine . Enjoy it . But I don't see it gaining widespread popularity any time soon .

 

Despite your campaigns to the contrary, the analytics have gained widespread popularity. And they will only be short-lived when they get replaced by newer, better ones. Which is why no one talks about VORP or Win Shares any more...

[dgalehouse]

How do you know all this, Denny? Do you actually sit in the bleachers at a lot of games and talk to these average fans?

 

When I go on message boards (I visit some other ones as well), I see a lot of comments that use newer stats.

 

Which suggests to me that there are a lot of people interested in them - and it seems to me anything that promotes interest is a good thing.

 

That is just it . The average fan does not post on message boards either . People that do are more likely to be into that sort of thing . I did say that this is my belief . I do know quite a few " average fans . " I don't feel the need to answer a question about sitting in the bleachers and questioning fans .

[dgalehouse]

Despite your campaigns to the contrary, the analytics have gained widespread popularity. And they will only be short-lived when they get replaced by newer, better ones. Which is why no one talks about VORP or Win Shares any more...

 

Widespread only among the advocates . Not the general fan base .

[notin]

Widespread only among the advocates . Not the general fan base .

 

Actually a lot of fans in the general fan base do accept them. A big reason is Fangraphs.

 

But some, like OPS, have made their way to the back of baseball cards.

 

A lot of sportswriters covering baseball rely on them in their articles. Jeff Passan is nationally syndicated and uses them frequently. Most of the Bleacher Report writers do as well. So anyone using Yahoo (who publishes Passan) or CNN (who publishes and links to many Bleacher Report features) reads articles daily covering baseball with advanced metrics...

Edited July 27, 2019 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

That is just it . The average fan does not post on message boards either .

 

Huh? There are plenty of what I would call average fans here, as there were on the old BDC site and other forums.

 

What you're saying is equivalent to saying the average person doesn't use social media.