A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

If the goal of selling is to free up cash, look to trade Sale, Price, and JDM.

 

Not realistic IMHO. They're not going to rip the guts out of the team.

 

Porcello is the most likely to be traded, because his contract's up.

[kenmeister]

So... give up on 2020 as well?

 

Doesn’t that depend on what they get in return?

[notin]

Not realistic IMHO. They're not going to rip the guts out of the team.

 

Porcello is the most likely to be traded, because his contract's up.

 

Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Holt and Nunez.

 

The latter four get a wild card prospect at best. But more likely just a lot of Josh Tobias / Marcus Wilson types...

[kenmeister]

Not realistic IMHO. They're not going to rip the guts out of the team.

 

Porcello is the most likely to be traded, because his contract's up.

 

Until he stunk up London, I would have agreed.

[dgalehouse]

I don't think there is any thought of being sellers at this point . Given the sorry state of the A.L. , it doesn't take much to get one of the wild card spots . For example , this week we have six games against the woeful Blue Jays and the pitiful Tigers . Another chance to gain at least a couple , if not more , games in the standings before the All Star break .

[kenmeister]

Eovaldi’s return may still give the Sox a boost.

[notin]

Eovaldi’s return may still give the Sox a boost.

 

For 72 hours, at which time he’ll get injured again...

[moonslav59]

I don't think there is any thought of being sellers at this point . Given the sorry state of the A.L. , it doesn't take much to get one of the wild card spots . For example , this week we have six games against the woeful Blue Jays and the pitiful Tigers . Another chance to gain at least a couple , if not more , games in the standings before the All Star break .

 

There may come a time where DD thinks, even if we have a chance for the wild card, we aren't going anywhere once in the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure this will ever happen, but in 4 weeks we will know more.

[notin]

There may come a time where DD thinks, even if we have a chance for the wild card, we aren't going anywhere once in the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure this will ever happen, but in 4 weeks we will know more.

 

He’s going to have to make a decision himself before then. Trades don’t get thrown together in a coupe hours

[moonslav59]

He’s going to have to make a decision himself before then. Trades don’t get thrown together in a coupe hours

 

Yes, I know, but I wouldn't be surprised to find out he is working both angles in preparation to be a buyer or a seller (or both).

 

I wonder if his contract running out soon makes him much less likely to choose the seller path.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

My second half projections:

 

First half/ Second half

44-38/ 52-28

 

OPS

2018 Player 2019

.924 Bogey .900

.897 Devers .875

.893 JD M .925

.859 Moreland .750

.838 Betts .950

.801 Vaz .725

.800 Holt .725

.798 Beni .850

.785 Chavis .725

.714 JBJ .775

.571 Nunez .725

.564 Leon .550

.503 Pearce .750

 

Pitchers (listed by most first half IP)

ERA

first Pitcher second

3.82 Sale 2.80

4.52 Porcello 4.20

4.87 ERod 3.75

3.36 Price 3.25

2.72 Walden 3.00

5.59 Velazquez 4.50

1.70 Workman 2.20

4.19 Barnes 3.00

4.24 Brewer 4.25

3.34 Brasier 3.25

2.52 Hembree 3.25

6.00 Eovaldi 4.00

6.43 Johnson 4.75

0.00 Wright 3.50

 

 

52-28? With, perhaps, the worst BP in the AL. Moon, I love your sense of humor.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Btw, the BP has been so bad that it's provided a smoke screen covering how bad the starting pitching has been.

[kenmeister]

Btw, the BP has been so bad that it's provided a smoke screen covering how bad the starting pitching has been.

 

Very good point. When the starter goes less than 1 inning, it sets the BP up for failure. Porcello's start was criminal. Price had one like that recently too.

[moonslav59]

52-28? With, perhaps, the worst BP in the AL. Moon, I love your sense of humor.

 

I amended it to 28-52 after the weekend.

[moonslav59]

Very good point. When the starter goes less than 1 inning, it sets the BP up for failure. Porcello's start was criminal. Price had one like that recently too.

 

Up until recently, the pen has over achieved based on their expectations and past history.

 

This is all on DD. Yes, Cora's "restgate" helped (hurt) early, but we are beyond that. We should be seeing better starting pitching due to all that rest. Instead, they are flopping.

[a700hitter]

Up until recently, the pen has over achieved based on their expectations and past history.

 

This is all on DD. Yes, Cora's "restgate" helped (hurt) early, but we are beyond that. We should be seeing better starting pitching due to all that rest. Instead, they are flopping.

Price has been fine. He's pitching to a lower ERA than last season. Sale has pitched to a 2.82 ERA in May and 2.73 ERA in June, since he pitched himself into shape. He should have won a bunch of games in those months but for terrible offensive support and a lousy pen. Since ERod pitched himself into shape he is pitching at better than his career standards for May and June. Porcello is the one starter who has been significantly worse than his career norms since the first month. Of course, the 5th spot has been a horror show, but that is due to injury and lack of depth, not underperformance. As a whole, I don't see our starters taking much blame when 3 of the 5 are performing to or better than career norms.

[a700hitter]

Only the pathetic Mets have more blown saves than the Red Sox. There is your deficiency. deGrom and Sale should form a support group.

[Slasher9]

i blame Fat Benni!!!

[moonslav59]

Price has been fine. He's pitching to a lower ERA than last season. Sale has pitched to a 2.82 ERA in May and 2.73 ERA in June, since he pitched himself into shape. He should have won a bunch of games in those months but for terrible offensive support and a lousy pen. Since ERod pitched himself into shape he is pitching at better than his career standards for May and June. Porcello is the one starter who has been significantly worse than his career norms since the first month. Of course, the 5th spot has been a horror show, but that is due to injury and lack of depth, not underperformance. As a whole, I don't see our starters taking much blame when 3 of the 5 are performing to or better than career norms.

 

ERod and Porcello are pitching worse than last year. Both are not past prime, so that is a decline in my book.

 

Sale and Price have done better after the first couple weeks, but they have still been inconsistent, and Sale's recent ERA is still higher than last year.

 

Our 5th starter, alone, has killed our pen with overuse, and we have often started a pen arm in the 5 slot.

[moonslav59]

I was speaking about mostly just recent starts.

 

Cherry-picked sample sizes, granted, but here are some recent SP'er numbers:

 

Sale: 5.29 ERA last 3 starts (3.30 last 9 starts)

Price: 6.57 ERA last 3 starts (4.38 last 5 starts)

Porcello: 7.43 ERA last 3 starts (6.03 last 7 starts)

ERod: 5.30 ERA last 3 starts (5.00 last 9 starts)

 

Yes, our pen has sucked recently, but so have our highly paid SP'ers.

 

Price:

 

[moonslav59]

How about this?

 

Get KC to dump some salary, but lessen the budget hit by getting them to take some of our lesser salary dumps with some prospects.

 

We get:

Danny Duffy (LH's SP'er) $13M x 3 (~$4.3M towards 2019 tax budget)

Ian Kennedy (RH'd Closer) $14M x 2 (~$4.7M for 2019)

Total: $9M towards 2019 budget, $27M in 2020 and $13M in 2021

 

KC gets:

Steve Pearce $6.25M/1 (~$2.35M owed at deadline)

Eduardo Nunez $6M/1 (~$2.15M owed at deadline)

Total: $4.5M in 2019

They save $4.5M this year, $27M next year and $13M in 2021 ($45M total)

Plus prospects:

Dalbec

Duran

Shawaryn

 

Maybe get them to take Castillo to even up some 2020 money.

[oldtimer]

How about this?

 

Get KC to dump some salary, but lessen the budget hit by getting them to take some of our lesser salary dumps with some prospects.

 

We get:

Danny Duffy (LH's SP'er) $13M x 3 (~$4.3M towards 2019 tax budget)

Ian Kennedy (RH'd Closer) $14M x 2 (~$4.7M for 2019)

Total: $9M towards 2019 budget, $27M in 2020 and $13M in 2021

 

KC gets:

Steve Pearce $6.25M/1 (~$2.35M owed at deadline)

Eduardo Nunez $6M/1 (~$2.15M owed at deadline)

Total: $4.5M in 2019

They save $4.5M this year, $27M next year and $13M in 2021 ($45M total)

Plus prospects:

Dalbec

Duran

Shawaryn

 

Maybe get them to take Castillo to even up some 2020 money.

 

I don't like the idea of trading away our better young talent when it is unlikely to lead to post season success. We need to be taking a hard look at out outfield for 2020 and Duran may be one that will come along.

 

I doubt that any team would want to take Pearce and Nunez. Cora still is saying the team can win the world series. He is fanticizing.

[Elktonnick]

I don't like the idea of trading away our better young talent when it is unlikely to lead to post season success. We need to be taking a hard look at out outfield for 2020 and Duran may be one that will come along.

 

I doubt that any team would want to take Pearce and Nunez. Cora still is saying the team can win the world series. He is fanticizing.

 

The Manager has been projecting the image of Alfred E Neuman What Me Worry since opening day.

[moonslav59]

I don't like the idea of trading away our better young talent when it is unlikely to lead to post season success. We need to be taking a hard look at out outfield for 2020 and Duran may be one that will come along.

 

I doubt that any team would want to take Pearce and Nunez. Cora still is saying the team can win the world series. He is fanticizing.

 

They can take them or just pay $5M. They might be able to trade them and pay all but $4M of the $5M owed and save another million.

 

I'm not saying I'm for this trade, but I'd only do it, if we show some life.

[moonslav59]

I don't like the idea of trading away our better young talent when it is unlikely to lead to post season success. We need to be taking a hard look at out outfield for 2020 and Duran may be one that will come along.

 

Duran is not as good as his brief numbers show.

 

Dalbec is a long shot.

 

Shawaryn is far from our "better" young talent.

 

Our best prospects are the far away ones:

 

Casas

Mata

Flores

Jimenez

Lugo

Groome

Diaz, Decker & Howlett

 

Our only "near ML ready" hopes are as role players, at best:

Chatham

DHern

Houck

Feltman

(Dalbec )

(Duran- not so close)

Ward

[oldtimer]

Duran is not as good as his brief numbers show.

 

Dalbec is a long shot.

 

Shawaryn is far from our "better" young talent.

 

Our best prospects are the far away ones:

 

Casas

Mata

Flores

Jimenez

Lugo

Groome

Diaz, Decker & Howlett

 

Our only "near ML ready" hopes are as role players, at best:

Chatham

DHern

Houck

Feltman

(Dalbec ) they can do.

(Duran- not so close)

Ward

 

So why was Shawaryn broughht up if he was not thought of as one of the better prospects. His big problem nas been with location. He may still have value. Look at Tarpley of the Yankees. He was bombed by the Sox, et he will probably be pitching in the majors and be successful. These young guys need time and the real opportnity to show what

[moonslav59]

So why was Shawaryn broughht up if he was not thought of as one of the better prospects. His big problem nas been with location. He may still have value. Look at Tarpley of the Yankees. He was bombed by the Sox, et he will probably be pitching in the majors and be successful. These young guys need time and the real opportnity to show what

 

He was something like our 24th try!

 

We've tried 10 starters, and he has yet to get a start.

 

He was the best of the ML ready heep on the farm.

[devildavid]

I don't think there is any thought of being sellers at this point . Given the sorry state of the A.L. , it doesn't take much to get one of the wild card spots . For example , this week we have six games against the woeful Blue Jays and the pitiful Tigers . Another chance to gain at least a couple , if not more , games in the standings before the All Star break .

 

The woeful Blue Jays kicked our ass at Fenway.

[devildavid]

It is the entire team, and it isn’t. The lineup over the past two games were nails, but the defense of Chavis killed them. The starter today was passable, the starter yesterday was abysmal. Yesterday, the mop up men sucked. Today, the bridge and “closer” blew it. I don’t think you need to tweak your offense at all.

 

It's the entire team. They keep finding ways to lose, and have beefed up their offensive stats in blowouts against teams like the Orioles and the recent slugfest losses to the Yankees. Their hitting stats really don't translate into wins because they keep finding new ways to lose. The Yankees are showing a fighting, winning spirit while the Sox may be resting on last season's laurels. Last years offense had a knack of adding on in key moments while this years offense seems to miss those opportunities.

[moonslav59]

It's the entire team. They keep finding ways to lose, and have beefed up their offensive stats in blowouts against teams like the Orioles and the recent slugfest losses to the Yankees. Their hitting stats really don't translate into wins because they keep finding new ways to lose. The Yankees are showing a fighting, winning spirit while the Sox may be resting on last season's laurels. Last years offense had a knack of adding on in key moments while this years offense seems to miss those opportunities.

 

The question is, can we turn it around? (Can we regain the mojo of 2018?)

 

It's not really about hitting better. It's about hitting when you need it.

 

It is about pitching better but mainly about pitching better when it counts.

 

These kinds of things just kind of happen or they don't. I'm not sure there's anything management can do, except to hope the players pull together and bring on the transformation.