In the Off Season - Should we consider Trading Mookie Betts?

[SCM33]

The good news for Betts is very few teams have a history of giving out huge contracts like the Red Sox, and even fewer GMs have a history of giving out mega contracts that rivals Dombrowski’s...

 

That might be true, but he has already started giving out mega contracts between Sale and Bogaerts. Every owner has a limit. The Redsox are already far and above what every other team is spending, and they are continuing to extend players.

 

My feeling is that John Henry will come to his limit before Betts, not after. Again, we are already the highest payroll in baseball, by a lot.

[dgalehouse]

Signing extensions is the overwhelming trend right now . Signing Mookie will cost a lot , but may not be as difficult as you might think . It would be dumb to extend guys like Sale and Bogaerts , then let Mookie get away. Even if he became a free agent , there are very few teams that would be in on it . Very few . I expect him to stay , one way or the other.

[notin]

Signing extensions is the overwhelming trend right now . Signing Mookie will cost a lot , but may not be as difficult as you might think . It would be dumb to extend guys like Sale and Bogaerts , then let Mookie get away. Even if he became a free agent , there are very few teams that would be in on it . Very few . I expect him to stay , one way or the other.

 

 

Unless it was a risk aversion strategy. Maybe DD thought Betts would be too difficult, so the idea of saving budget for him by letting Sale and Bogaerts walk was a bad idea that might have left him with nothing.

 

Two birds in the hand...

[Jasonbay44]

There really aren't many examples, but also, this is a different time.

 

Jose Canseco 5/23.5 was a big number 30 years ago.......

Manny Ramirez 8/160 was a big number 20 years ago.....

 

These guys now, are asking for 1/2 a billion dollars. Its crazy, and they have sucked the fun out of being a fan. I havent gone to a game in a couple years, and to be honest, I dont know if I ever really want to go to another game. Not while my 15$ beer, 10$ hot dog and 8$ bottle of water are funding the whole greedy operation.

 

That's one thing I like about Baltimore. Tickets are like $10 and you can sit where ever you want (because no one is there), and you can bring any food you want into stadium

[notin]

That's one thing I like about Baltimore. Tickets are like $10 and you can sit where ever you want (because no one is there), and you can bring any food you want into stadium

 

 

And if you bring a glove, you can be the starting right fielder...

[jad]

That's one thing I like about Baltimore. Tickets are like $10 and you can sit where ever you want (because no one is there), and you can bring any food you want into stadium

 

Yes, but as I'm sure you know (since this discussion comes up over and over again in sports), ticket prices have essentially nothing to do with the salaries of players, nor do the price of beer and hot-dogs. They are set by a relatively simple computation--what price do you set for admission (or for a hot-dog) that maximizes the take. No team will sell a ticket for $10 that can sell for $50. Whether players make 10 million a year or $1/hour does not affect this calculation.

[S5Dewey]

Yes, but as I'm sure you know (since this discussion comes up over and over again in sports), ticket prices have essentially nothing to do with the salaries of players... . Whether players make 10 million a year or $1/hour does not affect this calculation.

 

Then to take this one step further, ticket sales is all profit for the owners.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, but as I'm sure you know (since this discussion comes up over and over again in sports), ticket prices have essentially nothing to do with the salaries of players, nor do the price of beer and hot-dogs. They are set by a relatively simple computation--what price do you set for admission (or for a hot-dog) that maximizes the take. No team will sell a ticket for $10 that can sell for $50. Whether players make 10 million a year or $1/hour does not affect this calculation.

 

Then to take this one step further, ticket sales is all profit for the owners.

 

I think there's an 'indirect' relationship between ticket prices and salaries. The Red Sox charge high ticket prices and they sell them. That helps them have the high revenues that in turn enables them to pay the high salaries.

 

John Henry understands that to maximize revenues you need to put strong (and well-paid) teams on the field. And winning championships don't hurt.

[Slasher9]

I think there's an 'indirect' relationship between ticket prices and salaries. The Red Sox charge high ticket prices and they sell them. That helps them have the high revenues that in turn enables them to pay the high salaries.

 

John Henry understands that to maximize revenues you need to put strong (and well-paid) teams on the field. And winning championships don't hurt.

 

due to Revenue Sharing the visiting team will get in the neighborhood of ~35% of the home team ticket revenue.

[BillyWilliams]

The good news for Betts is very few teams have a history of giving out huge contracts like the Red Sox, and even fewer GMs have a history of giving out mega contracts that rivals Dombrowski’s...

 

While that may have been true, with all the new mega TV deals more and more teams have the ability to hand out huge contracts.

 

See Machado, Manny.

 

As the great Bob Dylan once said, The Times They Are A-Changin'

[notin]

While that may have been true, with all the new mega TV deals more and more teams have the ability to hand out huge contracts.

 

See Machado, Manny.

 

As the great Bob Dylan once said, The Times They Are A-Changin'

 

They’ve given out ONE. The Sox do have a longer and more significant history, along with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants and more recently the Cubs.

 

Certainly some unforeseen teams will get in on the bidding, but I think we all expect Boston to be heavily involved...

[Bellhorn04]

They’ve given out ONE.

 

The Padres, you mean? The Hosmer contract was pretty hefty, though only half of Machado's in total value.

[BillyWilliams]

They’ve given out ONE. The Sox do have a longer and more significant history, along with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants and more recently the Cubs.

 

Certainly some unforeseen teams will get in on the bidding, but I think we all expect Boston to be heavily involved...

 

As I stated, that's how things were, things are different moving forward with many teams receiving large swaths of cash from the new TV deals.

[fxkatt]

Competition for Betts in free agency, would depend a great deal on the timing. What big market teams will need him in a couple years? And which will have "cap room" for him? These past two years have been, on average, bad for free agents. So Betts, if he wants the top dollar money, better figure out just how the wind is blowing before he rejects any unsatisfactory Boston offer.

[dgalehouse]

Competition for Betts in free agency, would depend a great deal on the timing. What big market teams will need him in a couple years? And which will have "cap room" for him? These past two years have been, on average, bad for free agents. So Betts, if he wants the top dollar money, better figure out just how the wind is blowing before he rejects any unsatisfactory Boston offer.

 

Before he figures out which way the wind is blowing, he needs to figure out what the score is and what inning it is before trying to take an extra base .

[fxkatt]

Before he figures out which way the wind is blowing, he needs to figure out what the score is and what inning it is before trying to take an extra base .

 

Belichick would trade him tomorrow--for a third round pick. Focus, focus is the Patriot mantra.

[Jasonbay44]

If a player got traded every time they did something stupid, Eduardo Nunez would've played for every team at least twice already.

[Bellhorn04]

It wouldn't surprise me if Mookie has a bit of a difficult season this year, partly because of all the attention his contract situation has drawn.

[notin]

It wouldn't surprise me if Mookie has a bit of a difficult season this year, partly because of all the attention his contract situation has drawn.

 

 

That’s on him. He’s had multiple chances to sign extensions involving life-altering money...

[Bellhorn04]

That’s on him. He’s had multiple chances to sign extensions involving life-altering money...

 

Oh, I know. It certainly didn't bother him last year. But this offseason they really shone the spotlight on him.

[mvp 78]

It wouldn't surprise me if Mookie has a bit of a difficult season this year, partly because of all the attention his contract situation has drawn.

 

Just wait until NEXT season.

[Slasher9]

Belichick would trade him tomorrow--for a third round pick. Focus, focus is the Patriot mantra.

 

hard to compare. football contracts are not guaranteed. coaches/GMs can fcuk with players. Baseball is a different animal. kid gloves....

[fxkatt]

hard to compare. football contracts are not guaranteed. coaches/GMs can fcuk with players. Baseball is a different animal. kid gloves....

 

I was replying in a humorous way to a funny comment, but to me it's not so much NFL player contracts that make BB move great players he wants out, but BB himself. He seems to know just when these players need to go no matter how high he drafted them or at what level they're performing. This is esp true with some of his star defensive players who he has unloaded at the peak of their careers, or when they were the best linebacker or d-lineman on the team. He leaves a lot of experts scratching their head, but in the end, he is often proven right.

[Kimmi]

It wouldn't surprise me if Mookie has a bit of a difficult season this year, partly because of all the attention his contract situation has drawn.

 

It's not just the contract situation. He's the reigning MVP and a reigning WS Champ. Even without an impending huge free agency payout, that is a lot to live up to. All the speculation about his contract only makes things more difficult.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles a bit. OTOH, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins MVP again.

[jung]

I would not trade him. I wish Mookie had a larger physical frame. But I still would not trade him.

 

I keep having visions of Mookie crashing into a Catcher or a largish infielder or even Beni or JBJ or the wall in the OF and crumbling in a heap or struggling with fatigue through the long regular season. Thank God he is so agile. Mookie does look a bit thicker to me this year than last...not much, but a little. I am liking that.

[S5Dewey]

From a fan's standpoint we shouldn't even consider trading him. He's great to watch whether on offense or defense and his WAR reflects his overall value to the team.

 

From an economic and baseball standpoint we should at least be willing to kick the tires on trading him. Let's say he puts up a WAR of 8 this year and it would take $30M/year to keep him. We should be looking at the possibility of trading him for, say two 3's and a 2 if we could sign those three guys for less than $30M. That would lower our salary without impacting the number of wins the team gets.

[Bellhorn04]

From an economic and baseball standpoint we should at least be willing to kick the tires on trading him. Let's say he puts up a WAR of 8 this year and it would take $30M/year to keep him. We should be looking at the possibility of trading him for, say two 3's and a 2 if we could sign those three guys for less than $30M. That would lower our salary without impacting the number of wins the team gets.

 

It sounds simple, but in reality of course there is a vast amount of uncertainty involved. What are the chances of the 'two 3's and a 2' being two 3's and a 2 year in and year out? What is their contract status at the time of the trade (years left)? There are a lot of 'permutations and combinations'.

 

There's uncertainty involved with Mookie's future performance too, of course.

[notin]

From a fan's standpoint we shouldn't even consider trading him. He's great to watch whether on offense or defense and his WAR reflects his overall value to the team.

 

From an economic and baseball standpoint we should at least be willing to kick the tires on trading him. Let's say he puts up a WAR of 8 this year and it would take $30M/year to keep him. We should be looking at the possibility of trading him for, say two 3's and a 2 if we could sign those three guys for less than $30M. That would lower our salary without impacting the number of wins the team gets.

 

 

If your wife was an 8, would you trade her for two 3’s and a 2?

 

 

(I know she’s a 10, but I’m using your numbers to make my point.)

[notin]

It sounds simple, but in reality of course there is a vast amount of uncertainty involved. What are the chances of the 'two 3's and a 2' being two 3's and a 2 year in and year out? What is their contract status at the time of the trade (years left)? There are a lot of 'permutations and combinations'.

 

There's uncertainty involved with Mookie's future performance too, of course.

 

 

Actually no.

 

Getting 8 WAR out of 3 players is not as good as getting 8 WAR out of one. If for no other reason that with the one player, you’re still going to need 2 more...

[S5Dewey]

Actually no.

 

Getting 8 WAR out of 3 players is not as good as getting 8 WAR out of one. If for no other reason that with the one player, you’re still going to need 2 more...

 

But if you can get 8 WAR out of three guys and pay them less, isn't that a good deal?