Blake Swihart

[notin]

Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager will undergo surgery on a tendon in his left hand:

 

Kyle Seager has surgery, to miss April

WWW.MLB.COM

---

PEORIA, Ariz. -- Kyle Seager has been the most durable third baseman in the Majors for the past seven years, but that iron-man status hit a bump on Monday as the Mariners announced the 31-year-old was to have surgery to repair a tendon in his left hand on Tuesday and

 

The Mariners could hope to trade the expiring contract of Eduardo Nunez upon Seager's return (as the Giants did with the Red Sox in 2017).

 

Seattle reportedly is in a the market for a defensively adept catcher to complement bat-first Omar Narvaez.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-still-looking-to-add-another-right-handed-hitting-catcher/

 

Jay Groome has a cavernous gap between his projected ceiling and his projected floor.

 

http://soxprospects.com/players/groome-jay.htm

 

The Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, have a projected Opening Day payroll of $143.6 million, down from about $171 million last year:

 

 

 

As much as Dombrowski loves trading prospects, he did put significant effort into Groome, basically molding the entire draft around him. He might not be so eager to dump him just yet, especially for a legacy infielder whose ceiling might be Tzu-Wei Lin.

 

Now maybe Nunez and Leon ($7.75mill) for Anthony Swarzak ($8.5mill) makes more sense for both sides. The Refd Sox would need to be very confident in the return of Pedroia and/or the ability of Lin to step in should Dustin falter before making any deal involving Nunez...

[oldtimer]

The Red Sox could clear about $7.5 million in payroll space by trading Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon and Jay Groome to Seattle for 19-year-old shortstop Cesar Izturis Jr.:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=izturi002ces

 

In other words, a salary dump.

 

With Pedroia iffy this year and Nunez reportedly recovered from his knee injury, I think we should keep Nunez as a solid utility player who can give us the big hit at times. Leon by himself may find a home as a backup catcher and possibly we can get something back to boost our minors while dumping $2.45 mil from payroll. Not much, but we should take every saving we can get for a non essential player.

[moonslav59]

Yes, I'm not sure Holt & Lin are enough IF depth.

 

Remember, trading Leon does not really "save" $2.45M, since even if we add a min wage guy, we save only about $1.8M.

[harmony]

As much as Dombrowski loves trading prospects, he did put significant effort into Groome, basically molding the entire draft around him. He might not be so eager to dump him just yet, especially for a legacy infielder whose ceiling might be Tzu-Wei Lin.

 

Now maybe Nunez and Leon ($7.75mill) for Anthony Swarzak ($8.5mill) makes more sense for both sides. The Refd Sox would need to be very confident in the return of Pedroia and/or the ability of Lin to step in should Dustin falter before making any deal involving Nunez...

I suspect the Seattle Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, would need a long-term asset to offset the underwater $7.5 million in obligations to Sandy Leon and Eduardo Nunez, who hope to rebound from last year's fWAR of a negative 0.9 and a negative 0.4, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=2_30

 

Nunez is somewhat redundant to Brock Holt, the likely backup to Dustin Pedroia.

 

One issue is whether a trade of Jay Groome alone would net a better asset (at a better price) than what the Red Sox could acquire with an additional $7.5 million in payroll.

Edited March 12, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

I suspect the Seattle Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, would need a long-term asset to offset the underwater $7.5 million in obligations to Sandy Leon and Eduardo Nunez, who hope to rebound from last year's fWAR of a negative 0.9 and a negative 0.4, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=2_30

 

Nunez is somewhat redundant to Brock Holt, the likely backup to Dustin Pedroia.

 

One issue is whether a trade of Jay Groome alone would net a better asset (at a better price) than what the Red Sox could acquire with an additional $7.5 million in payroll.

 

Wouldn’t unloading $8.5mill worth of Anthony Swarzak more than offset the $7.5mill from acquiring Nunez and Leon? Not sure how Seattle goes underwater in a deal where they save $1mill.

[harmony]

Wouldn’t unloading $8.5mill worth of Anthony Swarzak more than offset the $7.5mill from acquiring Nunez and Leon? Not sure how Seattle goes underwater in a deal where they save $1mill.

Seattle could target assets such as Jay Groome to contend beyond 2019 and therefore could be willing to assume underwater short-term liabilities such as Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon. The Mariners have already slashed more than $25 million from their payroll and could easily take on the $7.5 million owed Nunez and Leon without depleting a thin bullpen by trading Anthony Swarzak.

 

Sandy Leon (5-10, 225) could be a decent defensive mentor to fellow squat Venezuelan Omar Narvaez (5-11, 220).

Edited March 12, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

Seattle could target assets such as Jay Groome to contend beyond 2019 and therefore could be willing to assume underwater short-term liabilities such as Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon. The Mariners have already slashed more than $25 million from their payroll and could easily take on the $7.5 million owed Nunez and Leon without depleting a thin bullpen by trading Anthony Swarzak.

 

Sandy Leon (5-10, 225) could be a decent defensive mentor to fellow squat Venezuelan Omar Narvaez (5-11, 220).

 

While the Red Sox have reportedly dangled Groome in trade scenarios before, they are not likely to do so merely to dump two players in the final years of their deals in order to acquire a potential utility infielder. Like Seattle, Boston also hopes to contend beyond 2019.

 

Your proposal is so lopsided I’m surprised it didn’t slide off the webpage...

[harmony]

While the Red Sox have reportedly dangled Groome in trade scenarios before, they are not likely to do so merely to dump two players in the final years of their deals in order to acquire a potential utility infielder. Like Seattle, Boston also hopes to contend beyond 2019.

 

Your proposal is so lopsided I’m surprised it didn’t slide off the webpage...

Perhaps but the Red Sox could always sweeten the deal.

 

This year Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon are owed a combined $7.5 million coming off a season in which the pair combined for a negative 1.3 fWAR, valued at a negative $10.3 million. Regression should help close that $17.8 million gap but their contracts remain underwater.

 

Makeup concerns surround Jay Groome, who turns 21 this year coming off Tommy John surgery after posting an ERA of 5.37 in 17 minor league starts, none above the Class A level.

 

That's quite a package.

[notin]

Perhaps but the Red Sox could always sweeten the deal.

 

This year Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon are owed a combined $7.5 million coming off a season in which the pair combined for a negative 1.3 fWAR, valued at a negative $10.3 million. Regression should help close that $17.8 million gap but their contracts remain underwater.

 

Makeup concerns surround Jay Groome, who turns 21 this year coming off Tommy John surgery after posting an ERA of 5.37 in 17 minor league starts, none above the Class A level.

 

That's quite a package.

 

 

And yet you think it might improve the Mariners.

 

I do doubt the Sox trade Groome or want Izturis. And probably need Nunez until they have an idea about their infield.

 

And while they probably want some financial wiggle room, it’s not so likely to be at the expense of the farm system. Especially since they can simply cut Leon and save $2.48mill, keep their better pitching prospect and their infield depth. The idea that the Sox have to include Groome to move Nunez for nothing is beyond silly. You could have at least included a worthwhile prospect coming back to Boston...

[harmony]

And yet you think it might improve the Mariners.

 

I do doubt the Sox trade Groome or want Izturis. And probably need Nunez until they have an idea about their infield.

 

And while they probably want some financial wiggle room, it’s not so likely to be at the expense of the farm system. Especially since they can simply cut Leon and save $2.48mill, keep their better pitching prospect and their infield depth. The idea that the Sox have to include Groome to move Nunez for nothing is beyond silly. You could have at least included a worthwhile prospect coming back to Boston...

Why would the Mariners trade a prospect of value for two underwater contracts and one of baseball's most disappointing prospects?

 

Seattle would be taking a $7.5 million longshot gamble that Jay Groome will amount to anything.

 

Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon would be nothing more than short-term fillers. The Mariners could just as easily sign free agent third baseman Chase Headley until Kyle Seager returns. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 0.6 for Leon and 1.5 for Seattle's current backup catcher, David Freitas.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0

[notin]

So why does Seattle need them?

 

The Mariners probably should sign Headley.

 

Your deal makes zero sense for Boston. They get nothing except a minor league legacy shortstop who isn’t even a consensus top 40 in the Mariners’ organization.

 

I don’t think the Sox are as desperate to dump salary as you think. It’s possible Leon and Thornburg are at risk for getting cut, which would give the Sox an additional $4.25 mill. Trading Groome, disappointment or not, doesn’t justify the the mere $3mill difference...

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox save money by dumping Leon, whereas Swihart has a few more years of control. In addition, which catcher could the Red Sox dump and still bring back later in the season if necessary? Even if Leon signs with another team, how hard can it be to trade for him?

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox save money by dumping Leon, whereas Swihart has a few more years of control. In addition, which catcher could the Red Sox dump and still bring back later in the season if necessary? Even if Leon signs with another team, how hard can it be to trade for him?

 

When do we trade to get him back? After Sale & Price's ERA jumps 1.50?

 

Will he get a Mirrabelli escort back to Fenway?

Edited March 12, 2019 by moonslav59

[SCM33]

Vaz makes more than both.

 

Leon is older than both.

 

Who are the "other two?"

 

Didn't realize that Vasquez made more than the other 2.

 

Leon is older than the other 2. Leon sucks. You should get used to the fact that he is gone. If he somehow sticks around as Sale's binky, you should feel lucky. Make no mistake though. He f***ing sucks.

[SCM33]

When do we trade to get him back? After Sale & Price's ERA jumps 1.50?

 

Will he get a Mirrabelli escort back to Fenway?

 

That wont happen. Mirabelli could at least hit a little. We wont have to trade to get him back, we can just sign him off his couch, since nobody else will pay him to not hit, and play average defense.

[harmony]

That wont happen. Mirabelli could at least hit a little. We wont have to trade to get him back, we can just sign him off his couch, since nobody else will pay him to not hit, and play average defense.

More knowledgeable baseball followers rate Sandy Leon as a better-than-average defensive catcher:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp

[moonslav59]

Didn't realize that Vasquez made more than the other 2.

 

Leon is older than the other 2. Leon sucks. You should get used to the fact that he is gone. If he somehow sticks around as Sale's binky, you should feel lucky. Make no mistake though. He f***ing sucks.

 

Both Price and Sale do way better with Leon. If the differences are truly a result of who is catching them, that differential way out weighs the probable loss on offense between Vaz/Swi and Leon.

 

On salary: Vaz is slated to make- 19:$2.85M, 20:$4.2M, 21:$6.25M, 22:$7M club option ($0.25M buyout).

 

Leon makes $2.475M with one arb year left. If the arb guy agrees that he sucks, the Vaz-Leon salary difference will be much more next year. Vaz will likely make more than Leon & Swihart combined in 2020.

[moonslav59]

That wont happen. Mirabelli could at least hit a little. We wont have to trade to get him back, we can just sign him off his couch, since nobody else will pay him to not hit, and play average defense.

 

If you really think he is just an average defender, there's no use talking anymore.

[moonslav59]

More knowledgeable baseball followers rate Sandy Leon as a better-than-average defensive catcher:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp

 

He's the only catcher that was ranked in the top 10 by all voters in 2018.

[Slasher9]

That wont happen. Mirabelli could at least hit a little. We wont have to trade to get him back, we can just sign him off his couch, since nobody else will pay him to not hit, and play average defense.

 

wait...fullstop. do you believe Leon plays "average defense"?

do you believe Swihart plays "average defense"?

catching defense (game calling, framing, blocking, pitcher comfort, etc) >>>>>>>>>>>> 1 extra single every 5 games.....

cora feels the same as swihart got a grand total of 65 PA's as a Catcher in 2018....

[moonslav59]

wait...fullstop. do you believe Leon plays "average defense"?

do you believe Swihart plays "average defense"?

catching defense (game calling, framing, blocking, pitcher comfort, etc) >>>>>>>>>>>> 1 extra single every 5 games.....

cora feels the same as swihart got a grand total of 65 PA's as a Catcher in 2018....

 

It might be more than one single every 5 games, if you are talking about the difference between Leon & Swihart. It might be a few HRs a year, more doubles, singles and walks. If it is a double and a walk every 20 PAs, it would be like adding over .100 to Leon's SLG% and .100 to his OB%. That's over .200 in OPS (added to .550 is .750). Now, that might be high end estimates, but it is an example of how much great catching can make a difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am still puzzled as to the infatuation with this kid. He was a prize prospect whose bat didn't reach the dizzying heights projected and whose glove was overrated in the minors. He then suffered a career altering injury and lost valuable development time which made him a AAAA player. Time to cut the cord

[notin]

The alternative is Sandy Leon. Good defensive catcher but hardly a unique player. The Sox can take a chance...

[Bellhorn04]

I am still puzzled as to the infatuation with this kid. He was a prize prospect whose bat didn't reach the dizzying heights projected and whose glove was overrated in the minors. He then suffered a career altering injury and lost valuable development time which made him a AAAA player. Time to cut the cord

 

The infatuation is still there because of the sense that he has never really had a full shot at proving what he can do, which is probably true, and he seems to be in full health.

 

Maybe it's also because he looks much better at the plate than his numbers reflect...but that's more like personal speculation.

[Slasher9]

It might be more than one single every 5 games, if you are talking about the difference between Leon & Swihart. It might be a few HRs a year, more doubles, singles and walks. If it is a double and a walk every 20 PAs, it would be like adding over .100 to Leon's SLG% and .100 to his OB%. That's over .200 in OPS (added to .550 is .750). Now, that might be high end estimates, but it is an example of how much great catching can make a difference.

 

if i go by the back of their playing card the OPS difference is .626 vs .678.

me? i'll take less offense and Leon's defense/CERA every time over swihart and his extra basehit every few games.....

[Carpin]

The infatuation is still there because of the sense that he has never really had a full shot at proving what he can do, which is probably true, and he seems to be in full health.

 

Maybe it's also because he looks much better at the plate than his numbers reflect...but that's more like personal speculation.

 

I tend to agree with you, he was rushed to the majors, he deserves a real shot to make the roster; but he can't be a prospect forever, eventually somebody will need to take the hard decision if he doesn't perform.

[moonslav59]

I am still puzzled as to the infatuation with this kid. He was a prize prospect whose bat didn't reach the dizzying heights projected and whose glove was overrated in the minors. He then suffered a career altering injury and lost valuable development time which made him a AAAA player. Time to cut the cord

 

I think some are influenced (blinded?) by his CS%, and maybe think that makes him a decent to plus defender.

 

To me, this speaks volumes:

 

Career PAs caught with these Sox starters:

 

0 with Sale out of 5,932 PAs against (.000)

 

48 out of 7856 with Price (.006) and a 5.78 ERA

 

498 out of 7312 with Porcello (.068) and a 4.59 ERA

 

Total:546 out of 21,200 PAs or 2.5% of all their career PAs.

 

If we don't dare start him with our top 3 guys, and Vaz has worse numbers than Leon with all three, I think we are tempting fate by trading Leon.

 

[cp176]

We do not need two catchers who likely would be solid backups on many teams. Taking a chance with Swihart won't hurt a thing. Sandy Leon is a good defensive catcher but anyone thinking that Sandy is the biggest reason for the success of two big time big league pitchers I think is giving him more credit than he deserves.

[Kimmi]

More knowledgeable baseball followers rate Sandy Leon as a better-than-average defensive catcher:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp

 

{Swoon}

[mvp 78]

Leon > Vaz > Swihart