Blake Swihart

[Slasher9]

Swihart's upside went out the door a long time ago.

 

agreed.

[Slasher9]

the trade jbj thread is starting early this year folks!

 

damn you!

[mvp 78]

damn you!

 

Don't blame me. Dojji started it by saying that CFers with great defense but mediocre offense aren't worth dog s***!

[notin]

Don't blame me. Dojji started it by saying that CFers with great defense but mediocre offense aren't worth dog s***!

 

JBJ will have stellar offensive numbers this year...

[mvp 78]

JBJ will have stellar offensive numbers this year...

 

Would love to see it. Aside from the Eck nonsense, he seems like a cool cat.

[Dojji]

The trade JBJ thread is starting early this year folks!

 

JBJ produced 2 oWAR. That's not mediocre. It's not great, but adjusted for position he's reasonably solid, even in a down year.

[Dojji]

Don't blame me. Dojji started it by saying that CFers with great defense but mediocre offense aren't worth dog s***!

 

Because that's totally fair and does justice to the level of thought I put into that post.

[mvp 78]

Because that's totally fair and does justice to the level of thought I put into that post.

 

It was a joke. Next time I'll be sure to hit everyone over the head with a hammer of sarcasm. I thought the sarcasm was clear... Alas!

 

People were complaining about a potential trade JBJ thread post a few days ago. I was just referencing that.

[Dojji]

ah, I missed that

[cp176]

1: Swihart has not shown any realistic ability to hit better than Leon or Vazquez.

 

2: Both Vazquez and Leon have produced significant samples of offensive production superior to Swihart's 2015 production.

 

3: You're talking about a catching tandem that just won the World Series, and the pitchers are effusive in their praise of those catchers' ability.

 

4: Catcher is one of the two positions, shortstop being the other one, where mediocre offensive production is tolerable as long as the defense is good enough.

 

5: Between Leon and Vazquez, 70 efforts to steal a base were recorded (and if that seems low considering their combined workload, that's because it hella is) , with 22 of those being caught. That's a 30% success rate, significantly above the league average . So not only were the overall attempts incredibly low (an average year sees somewhre around 120 to 150 attempts to steal on your catchers, and even with Swihart thrown in there were only 89 such attempts on the Boston catching teams which is, again, WAY small, half an attempt per game is TINY) but even those who were brave enough to give it a go, or fast enough to pull it off, were nabbed fairly regularly

 

In other words Vazquez and Leon did a whizzbang job at controlling the running game, they created a fear factor that scared off a lot of first base coaches and even the guys who felt they were fast enough to make an effort (in other words, we're probably talking mostly about elite runners here) were gunned down at a level above the league average. Combine that with the great work our boys did on the basepaths and it's very easy to understand exactly why we had such a competitive advantage against a lot of other good teams.

 

Now let's look at Swihart. He played 33 games and saw 19 steal attempts, of which he caught 5. That's a significant increase in the willingness of baserunners to try something on Swihart comprared to other catchers and he only caught baserunners at about an average level. Bottom line here is that while Swihart isn't bad at controlling the running game he's nowhere near as good as either Leon or ESPECIALLY Vazquez, who is a superstar at this aspect of catching defense.

 

Final analysis baserunners aren't anywhere near as afraid of Swihart as they are of L and V and will try his arm more, resulting in increased scoring chances for the opposing team than if we stick to L and V, regardless of other factors of offense or defense. I'm reluctant to surrender an advantage of that magnitude in the name of a single hitter hitting a few extra hundred OPS points, even if Swihart would definitely hit it might not be worth it -- but to surrender an advantage this huge for merely the CHANCE of a slight offensive uptick -- on a team whose offense is already at juggernaut levels -- is patently ridiculous.

 

Absolutely overwhelming amount of information. Now, like I said before not that it matters, it is highly likely that if given the chance he would be at least adequate behind the plate and even more likely would outhit both of the non-hitters who currently lie ahead of him on the depth chart. It will be ok but we really don't need two backup catchers leading the way for us.

[Dojji]

They are not backup catchers. Not every catcher who has trouble at the plate is a backup.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely overwhelming amount of information. Now, like I said before not that it matters, it is highly likely that if given the chance he would be at least adequate behind the plate and even more likely would outhit both of the non-hitters who currently lie ahead of him on the depth chart. It will be ok but we really don't need two backup catchers leading the way for us.

 

There certainly is a good chance Swihart can and will outhit Leon and/or Vaz, but there is very little evidence to support that idea, except the career OPS based on 597 PAs by Swihart. There's a good chance Vaz out hits them all and a lesser but still significant chance Leon can hit like he did a few years back.

 

Career numbers:

.678 Swihart

.632 Vaz

.626 Leon

 

Last 2 years:

.650 Vaz

.615 Swihart

.579 Leon

 

Last 3 years:

.664 Leon

.641 Swihart

.635 Vaz

 

Best year in last 4 seasons:

.845 Leon in 2016 (283 PAs)

.735 Vaz in 2017 (345 PAs)

.712 Swihart 2015 (309 PAs)

 

AAA

.720 Leon (498)

.712 Vaz (457)

.615 Swihart

 

AA

.843 Swihart (387)

.731 Vaz (484)

.614 Leon (510)

 

Minors

.734 Vaz (2208)

.726 Swihart (1719)

.654 Leon (2319)

 

 

 

 

[cp176]

They are not backup catchers. Not every catcher who has trouble at the plate is a backup.

 

It is just as likely that either Vazquez or Leon are replaceable immediately if the situation warranted it. It doesn't, thus it is not an issue. They are both adequate since they both have defensive attributes.

[cp176]

There certainly is a good chance Swihart can and will outhit Leon and/or Vaz, but there is very little evidence to support that idea, except the career OPS based on 597 PAs by Swihart. There's a good chance Vaz out hits them all and a lesser but still significant chance Leon can hit like he did a few years back.

 

Career numbers:

.678 Swihart

.632 Vaz

.626 Leon

 

Last 2 years:

.650 Vaz

.615 Swihart

.579 Leon

 

Last 3 years:

.664 Leon

.641 Swihart

.635 Vaz

 

Best year in last 4 seasons:

.845 Leon in 2016 (283 PAs)

.735 Vaz in 2017 (345 PAs)

.712 Swihart 2015 (309 PAs)

 

AAA

.720 Leon (498)

.712 Vaz (457)

.615 Swihart

 

AA

.843 Swihart (387)

.731 Vaz (484)

.614 Leon (510)

 

Minors

.734 Vaz (2208)

.726 Swihart (1719)

.654 Leon (2319)

 

 

 

 

 

ok - I get all this Moon. At least you gave me numbers and did not try to educate me. At this point in time, I could care less whether we start the season with both Vazquez and Leon as our catchers. My opinion, and that is all that it is, if Swihart had the opportunities that the above mentioned have had, we all might be surprised. Looks like he won't get them - so be it. No big deal but regardless of all of Dojji's "advice" as well as your numbers I am not going to be convinced that he is not a far superior athlete to either one of these guys.

There are people here who will interpret what I have just said as me being opposed to keeping and using Vazqueth and Leon over Swihart. That is ********. It is not what I am saying.

[Bellhorn04]

ok - I get all this Moon. At least you gave me numbers and did not try to educate me. At this point in time, I could care less whether we start the season with both Vazquez and Leon as our catchers. My opinion, and that is all that it is, if Swihart had the opportunities that the above mentioned have had, we all might be surprised. Looks like he won't get them - so be it. No big deal but regardless of all of Dojji's "advice" as well as your numbers I am not going to be convinced that he is not a far superior athlete to either one of these guys.

 

Of course he's a better athlete. But this is baseball, not track and field.

 

(Sorry cp. That was pure snark but I couldn't resist.)

[cp176]

Of course he's a better athlete. But this is baseball, not track and field.

 

(Sorry cp. That was pure snark but I couldn't resist.)

 

I'll take it from you! I have a ton of Canadian friends down here in the southlands, my guess is that you are much like them. I like them.

[notin]

They are not backup catchers. Not every catcher who has trouble at the plate is a backup.

 

 

What about a catcher who ranks 45th in fWAR among all catchers with 100 PA or more over the last 2 seasons?

[notin]

 

5: Between Leon and Vazquez, 70 efforts to steal a base were recorded (and if that seems low considering their combined workload, that's because it hella is) , with 22 of those being caught. That's a 30% success rate, significantly above the league average . So not only were the overall attempts incredibly low (an average year sees somewhre around 120 to 150 attempts to steal on your catchers, and even with Swihart thrown in there were only 89 such attempts on the Boston catching teams which is, again, WAY small, half an attempt per game is TINY) but even those who were brave enough to give it a go, or fast enough to pull it off, were nabbed fairly regularly

 

In other words Vazquez and Leon did a whizzbang job at controlling the running game, they created a fear factor that scared off a lot of first base coaches and even the guys who felt they were fast enough to make an effort (in other words, we're probably talking mostly about elite runners here) were gunned down at a level above the league average. Combine that with the great work our boys did on the basepaths and it's very easy to understand exactly why we had such a competitive advantage against a lot of other good teams.

 

Now let's look at Swihart. He played 33 games and saw 19 steal attempts, of which he caught 5. That's a significant increase in the willingness of baserunners to try something on Swihart comprared to other catchers and he only caught baserunners at about an average level. Bottom line here is that while Swihart isn't bad at controlling the running game he's nowhere near as good as either Leon or ESPECIALLY Vazquez, who is a superstar at this aspect of catching defense.

 

Final analysis baserunners aren't anywhere near as afraid of Swihart as they are of L and V and will try his arm more, resulting in increased scoring chances for the opposing team than if we stick to L and V, regardless of other factors of offense or defense. I'm reluctant to surrender an advantage of that magnitude in the name of a single hitter hitting a few extra hundred OPS points, even if Swihart would definitely hit it might not be worth it -- but to surrender an advantage this huge for merely the CHANCE of a slight offensive uptick -- on a team whose offense is already at juggernaut levels -- is patently ridiculous.

 

 

Swihart threw out 26% of would-be base stealers. At that sample size of 19, he’s actually right in line with Vazquez and Leon. And he should be; he has an outstanding arm.

 

And also because they are working with the same pitching staff, whom bases are really stolen (or not) off of...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Cora says he doesn’t have a pecking order for the three catchers. ‘They’re all good,’ he said. Still expects that the team will open the year with just two catchers.

[SCM33]

Swihart makes this team.

 

Regardless of what the numbers say, he had his road paved in to the starting lineup prior to getting hurt. They arent going to give up on the guy who had all that potential because he was hurt. Especially considering he has the ability to play multiple positions (including DH, he played 6 positions last year).

 

It sounds stupid, bc I cant back it up with numbers, but he has lost a huge portion of his career due to injury, being promoted too fast, etc. He can hit. Just watching his approach, you can see that he at least has the tools to figure it out.

 

Sandy Leon is on his way out.

[moonslav59]

Swihart makes this team.

 

Regardless of what the numbers say, he had his road paved in to the starting lineup prior to getting hurt. They arent going to give up on the guy who had all that potential because he was hurt. Especially considering he has the ability to play multiple positions (including DH, he played 6 positions last year).

 

It sounds stupid, bc I cant back it up with numbers, but he has lost a huge portion of his career due to injury, being promoted too fast, etc. He can hit. Just watching his approach, you can see that he at least has the tools to figure it out.

 

Sandy Leon is on his way out.

 

What road map?

 

Word was we were trying to trade for Beltran, so we wouldn't have to play Swihart.

 

He's had plenty of chances while healthy and only did real well back in 2014 while in AA.

 

Maybe Leon goes, but I hope not.

 

We'll see how much the staff ERA suffers, if Swihart gets significant time behind the plate.

[SCM33]

What road map?

 

Word was we were trying to trade for Beltran, so we wouldn't have to play Swihart.

 

He's had plenty of chances while healthy and only did real well back in 2014 while in AA.

 

Maybe Leon goes, but I hope not.

 

We'll see how much the staff ERA suffers, if Swihart gets significant time behind the plate.

 

Road map? Started Playing professionally at 19, was in the MLB as a Catcher at the age of 23 after short stops in AA and AAA.

 

At age 24, they named him the starting LF due to his offensive potential, even though he had no experience in the OF, until he got hurt.

 

We haven't traded him yet. He has managed to stick with this team regardless of the opportunities hes gotten. He is not going anywhere. They need to at least see what he can do when healthy.

[moonslav59]

Road map? Started Playing professionally at 19, was in the MLB as a Catcher at the age of 23 after short stops in AA and AAA.

 

At age 24, they named him the starting LF due to his offensive potential, even though he had no experience in the OF, until he got hurt.

 

We haven't traded him yet. He has managed to stick with this team regardless of the opportunities hes gotten. He is not going anywhere. They need to at least see what he can do when healthy.

 

They were actively looking for a LF'er while Swihart was playing LF. Believe what you wish, but there was never a road map, IMO.

 

BTW, he wasn't hurt last year and Leon was hitting something like .102 after July 27th. If there was a road map, why didn't he play more last year? The only time he played consistently was when Vaz was hurt.

 

BTW, how long did he last as our starting catcher to open 2016? (Hint: more than 5 and lass than 7 games.) There was no injury on that map.

 

[SCM33]

They were actively looking for a LF'er while Swihart was playing LF. Believe what you wish, but there was never a road map, IMO.

 

BTW, he wasn't hurt last year and Leon was hitting something like .102 after July 27th. If there was a road map, why didn't he play more last year? The only time he played consistently was when Vaz was hurt.

 

BTW, how long did he last as our starting catcher to open 2016? (Hint: more than 5 and lass than 7 games.) There was no injury on that map.

 

 

2016? You mean the year he was playing LF?

Blake Swihart recovering from ankle injury

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- Blake Swihart was in high spirits as he rolled into the Red Sox clubhouse on a knee scooter before taking a seat at his locker on Sunday. The catcher/left fielder had a successful left ankle surgery on Aug. 15 and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.Sporting

 

Regardless, we will find out when Swihart remains on this roster at the end of the month.

[moonslav59]

2016? You mean the year he was playing LF?

Blake Swihart recovering from ankle injury

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- Blake Swihart was in high spirits as he rolled into the Red Sox clubhouse on a knee scooter before taking a seat at his locker on Sunday. The catcher/left fielder had a successful left ankle surgery on Aug. 15 and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.Sporting

 

Regardless, we will find out when Swihart remains on this roster at the end of the month.

 

No, in 2016 he was our starting catcher. He lasted 6 games as our staff was getting shelled. He was demoted. Some map.

Edited March 9, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

2016? You mean the year he was playing LF?

Blake Swihart recovering from ankle injury

WWW.MLB.COM

---

BOSTON -- Blake Swihart was in high spirits as he rolled into the Red Sox clubhouse on a knee scooter before taking a seat at his locker on Sunday. The catcher/left fielder had a successful left ankle surgery on Aug. 15 and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.Sporting

 

Regardless, we will find out when Swihart remains on this roster at the end of the month.

 

I'm not claiming I know what DD and Cora will choose.

 

I'm just giving my opinion on who I would choose.

[cp176]

What road map?

 

Word was we were trying to trade for Beltran, so we wouldn't have to play Swihart.

 

He's had plenty of chances while healthy and only did real well back in 2014 while in AA.

 

Maybe Leon goes, but I hope not.

 

We'll see how much the staff ERA suffers, if Swihart gets significant time behind the plate.

 

You obviously have your own strong opinion about what the make up of the catching staff should look like. Most of your arguments do make sense. A lot of this is simply how you choose to see things but I'm not sure that mentioning a potential trade for Carlos Beltran to keep Swihart out of left field (which you have mentioned before) is particularly solid. At the time that possibly bringing Beltran to Boston was discussed, I think that it had more to do with bringing an upgrade to the team in general regardless of who was being considered for left field. A trade for Beltran would have affected anyone being considered for left field - even Benintendi. Beltran was a pretty good player don't you think. Who knows what our catching status is going to be? If any of our current 3 are not with us this season, all will not be lost and the effect on our pitching staff will likely be minimal.

[Slasher9]

Unless he did amazing work over the short winter break the # of innings each catcher got in September should be pretty telling as to who Cora prefers. We were literally running away with the division and Blake hardly got a sniff as catcher. The only reason he made it onto the field in the postseason is because we thought it would be fun to play an 18 inning game......

[oldtimer]

I'm not claiming I know what DD and Cora will choose.

 

I'm just giving my opinion on who I would choose.

 

Leon's effect on payroll is roughly $2.5 mil whereas Swihart's is $910K. The money saved there might be used along with what we currently have later in the season if Leon goes. Swihart's capability at the plate is perceived to be superior from a BA standpoint. On the other hand, Swihart has more years of team control and is likely worth more in a trade.

 

Your arguments about defensive value also need to be accounted for. I think it will come down to which of Leon or Swihart get sought after by another club with backup caqtching needs

[moonslav59]

You obviously have your own strong opinion about what the make up of the catching staff should look like. Most of your arguments do make sense. A lot of this is simply how you choose to see things but I'm not sure that mentioning a potential trade for Carlos Beltran to keep Swihart out of left field (which you have mentioned before) is particularly solid. At the time that possibly bringing Beltran to Boston was discussed, I think that it had more to do with bringing an upgrade to the team in general regardless of who was being considered for left field. A trade for Beltran would have affected anyone being considered for left field - even Benintendi. Beltran was a pretty good player don't you think. Who knows what our catching status is going to be? If any of our current 3 are not with us this season, all will not be lost and the effect on our pitching staff will likely be minimal.

 

From what I heard, the Sox thought the Beltran deal was a done deal.

 

He certainly would have supplanted Swihart in LF.

 

I brought it up to point out that Sox management had no road map to get Swihart as a FT starter. He was a good choice to take over in an emergency-type situation, but IMO, there was no plan to make Swihart a FT starter.

 

I'm not even sure the catching job was 100% his to start 2016. I think they may have felt Vaz needed another week to get ready, and the plan was always for Vaz to be the number 1 catcher.

 

BTW, I'm not a Swihart hater. I'm more of a Leon booster.