Blake Swihart

[vegasbob]

And I don’t see that changing. I think Swihart gets DFAd right before opening day. And at that stage in the game, he might even clear waivers...

 

Probably the best move of all, assuming no trade discussions including any of these 3 during Feb?March. There is also the possibility of the real DL list arising from an injury to any of them, or the phantom DL list for a "pulled" hammy that could stretch out a few weeks more. Further, Sandy Leon needs to show that he can hit something with fresh legs and body this ST. If no sign of hitting, it's not out of the question that he is the DFA despite being a favored receiver by Sale.

Also easy to forget that Vaz was lost for weeks with the broken finger and the team didn't miss a beat since Swihart was there. Somehow we won 108 games carrying all three of these guys with Swihart showing his positional and PH/PR flexibility on a few occasions . Of course Pedey wasn't taking up a roster slot , and his return to steady playing time is not settled yet by any means. Hold these 3 until at least late March and see what develops.

[moonslav59]

OPS from 2016-2018

 

.664 Leon (872 PAs- fueled largely by his 2016 season)

 

.641 Swihart (288 scattered PAs)

 

.635 Vazquez (798 PAs- fueled largely by his 2017 season)

 

It's been basically a wash, but Leon has been much lower after 2016:

.650 Vaz

.615 Swi

.579 Leon

 

To me, it comes down to defense and staff handling- not offense.

 

[moonslav59]

Also easy to forget that Vaz was lost for weeks with the broken finger and the team didn't miss a beat since Swihart was there. Somehow we won 108 games carrying all three of these guys with Swihart showing his positional and PH/PR flexibility on a few occasions .

 

As Harvey Keitel said in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not start suc%$#' each others &^%#s quite yet..."

 

We went 46-21 in Vaz's starts.

 

We went 55-23 in Leon's starts.

 

We went 19-22 in Swihart's starts. (Granted, Swihart caught Johnson, Pom and Velazquez more than any other starters.)

[Nick]

How does it work on his pay? Do we need to DFA him before opening day to avoid owing him his money?

 

I still think we trade him for a "non-descript minor leaguer" maybe slightly better.

 

With his experience (3 years +), he can declare for free agency but I'm not sure how the money would work. My guess is his contract is not guranteed. In theory, arbitration figures are typically below market value so Leon should get a contract larger than what he agreed to if he declares for free agency.

 

What I'm saying is that why would Sox as an example let go of Betts to save $20M and get NOTHING in return? Same would apply to Sandy. I would also think Swihart would have some value in a trade.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Nick

[harmony]

With his experience (3 years +), he can declare for free agency but I'm not sure how the money would work. My guess is his contract is not guranteed. In theory, arbitration figures are typically below market value so Leon should get a contract larger than what he agreed to as a free agent.

Blake Swihart has two years and 164 days of MLB service and therefore cannot declare free agency if he clears waivers:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

[cp176]

I do think Swihart has value, and I'm fine with him as our 25th man. It's nice having a guy that can catch when we may want to PH for our catchers once or twice a game. He can play other positions and seems athletic, which mean he may improve.

 

The only reason I'm saying trade him is because DD said they are not going with 3 catchers.

 

I think we can get a decent minor leaguer for him or trade him with someone else for a slight upgrade.

 

I have not written him off as a catcher, but our window may close after 2019, and I don't want to mess with the good thing we have going with our staff. Keeping him around for 2020 might be the best reason for keeping him. We may be able to afford a learning curve with him then.

 

 

I don't really disagree with you here. My whole point being that none of these 3 causes me to have palpitations with respect to their talent levels. If he can get anything of value for either of the three, it would not surprise me to see to any of the three traded. If he can't get a decent return and back they come, not a bad thing. We have two known solid backstops and one great big unknown..

[Nick]

Blake Swihart has two years and 164 days of MLB service and therefore cannot declare free agency if he clears waivers:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

 

I'm assuming you knew I was talking about Sandy..but original OP may have been about Swihart.

[harmony]

I'm assuming you knew I was talking about Sandy..but original OP may have been about Swihart.

No reason to believe the post was about Sandy Leon:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart

[oldtimer]

I don't really disagree with you here. My whole point being that none of these 3 causes me to have palpitations with respect to their talent levels. If he can get anything of value for either of the three, it would not surprise me to see to any of the three traded. If he can't get a decent return and back they come, not a bad thing. We have two known solid backstops and one great big unknown..

 

I generally agree with your point of view, but would rank Vasquez on top with Swihart and Leon being a wash.

[BillyWilliams]

Red Sox: Catcher

The Red Sox have a wide-open race for the starting catcher spot. Last year, the club carried three catchers for most of the season in Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart. Vazquez and Leon essentially shared the position, with Swihart serving in more of a utility role. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Alex Cora are both on record as saying that arrangement is no longer sustainable. One of the three will likely get traded, leaving the other two to battle for the top spot. Swihart has the most offensive upside in the group, and seems to be far more in the mix to win the job than he was a year ago. Swihart has made significant improvement defensively in the last year thanks to exhaustive work with catching instructors Jason Varitek and Chad Epperson. Leon is the best defender of the three, but his bat went nearly silent last season. Vazquez is coming off a down year at the plate but has a cannon arm. The area he needs to improve most at is game calling. -- Ian Browne

 

2019 MLB Spring Training battles to watch

WWW.MLB.COM

---

As we get closer to the 2019 regular season, it's a good time to check in on position battles around MLB. There are several intriguing competitions taking place during Cactus League and Grapefruit League play, from top prospects making bids to earn spots on their clubs' Opening Day rosters, to

[notin]

OPS from 2016-2018

 

.664 Leon (872 PAs- fueled largely by his 2016 season)

 

.641 Swihart (288 scattered PAs)

 

.635 Vazquez (798 PAs- fueled largely by his 2017 season)

 

It's been basically a wash, but Leon has been much lower after 2016:

.650 Vaz

.615 Swi

.579 Leon

 

To me, it comes down to defense and staff handling- not offense.

 

 

Would you trade Vazquez for Danny Salazar?

 

Salazar makes $4.5 mill this year nd has one arb year left. Vazquez has 3 years $13.5 mill left plus an option and a $4.5mill AAV. Steamer projects Salazar to be worth 1.0 fWAR in 31 games (6 starts) and Vazquez to be worth 0.9 fWAR IN 279 PA (about half a season).

 

Cleveland’s catching situation is dicey, with Roberto Perez and Kevin Plawecki as potential starters and they have a manager possibly slightly familiar with Vazquez, who was drafted in 2008.

 

Salazar was once one of the most promising starters in MLB until he was completely derailed by injuries. If he can recover - BIG IF - he could easily replace starter depth lost if - small if - Porcello leaves for free agency. Until then, Salazar could function as a reliever in the Sox weakest area - the bullpen.

 

Salazar is a HUGE gamble, but so is anyone else who could be acquired for any Sox catcher...

[moonslav59]

Would you trade Vazquez for Danny Salazar?

 

Salazar makes $4.5 mill this year nd has one arb year left. Vazquez has 3 years $13.5 mill left plus an option and a $4.5mill AAV. Steamer projects Salazar to be worth 1.0 fWAR in 31 games (6 starts) and Vazquez to be worth 0.9 fWAR IN 279 PA (about half a season).

 

Cleveland’s catching situation is dicey, with Roberto Perez and Kevin Plawecki as potential starters and they have a manager possibly slightly familiar with Vazquez, who was drafted in 2008.

 

Salazar was once one of the most promising starters in MLB until he was completely derailed by injuries. If he can recover - BIG IF - he could easily replace starter depth lost if - small if - Porcello leaves for free agency. Until then, Salazar could function as a reliever in the Sox weakest area - the bullpen.

 

Salazar is a HUGE gamble, but so is anyone else who could be acquired for any Sox catcher...

 

I've always been high on Salazar, but he's more like Buch than Buch did.

 

He's probably worth the gambe, though.

 

I just do not want to see Leon catch more than 80 games, tops. I don't want to see Swihart catch more than 20 or 30, unless there's an injury. I'd lose on both counts by trading Vaz, but Salazar offers too much upside. I'd say yes.

[harmony]

Would you trade Vazquez for Danny Salazar?

 

Salazar makes $4.5 mill this year nd has one arb year left. Vazquez has 3 years $13.5 mill left plus an option and a $4.5mill AAV. Steamer projects Salazar to be worth 1.0 fWAR in 31 games (6 starts) and Vazquez to be worth 0.9 fWAR IN 279 PA (about half a season).

 

Cleveland’s catching situation is dicey, with Roberto Perez and Kevin Plawecki as potential starters and they have a manager possibly slightly familiar with Vazquez, who was drafted in 2008.

 

Salazar was once one of the most promising starters in MLB until he was completely derailed by injuries. If he can recover - BIG IF - he could easily replace starter depth lost if - small if - Porcello leaves for free agency. Until then, Salazar could function as a reliever in the Sox weakest area - the bullpen.

 

Salazar is a HUGE gamble, but so is anyone else who could be acquired for any Sox catcher...

Cleveland might not want Christian Vazquez and his guaranteed money when the Guardians already have two comparable catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=5&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

Vazquez and Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez have comparable contracts:

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/cleveland-Guardians-2/

 

... although Perez has a shorter guarantee at slightly lower salaries.

 

Cleveland catcher Kevin Plawecki has a 2019 salary of $1.1375 million as a Super Two with four years of team control.

Edited February 19, 2019 by harmony

[notin]

Cleveland might not want Christian Vazquez and his guaranteed money when the Guardians already have two comparable catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=5&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

 

Vazquez and Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez have comparable contracts:

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/cleveland-Guardians-2/

 

... although Perez has a shorter guarantee at slightly lower salaries.

 

Cleveland catcher Kevin Plawecki has a 2019 salary of $1.1375 million as a Super Two with four years of team control.

 

 

Of course they might not want him. But by acquiring Vazquez, they would increase their chances of one catcher breaking out. Plawecki still has options left and, really, isn’t much of a catcher anyway. At least defensively.

 

If Cleveland pursued a trade like this, they would increase their catching depth, which, like Boston, is their worst position.

 

Now thy might prefer a catcher better than Vazquez (of course they do), but they’re not going to get one for Danny Salazar...

[cp176]

Red Sox: Catcher

The Red Sox have a wide-open race for the starting catcher spot. Last year, the club carried three catchers for most of the season in Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart. Vazquez and Leon essentially shared the position, with Swihart serving in more of a utility role. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Alex Cora are both on record as saying that arrangement is no longer sustainable. One of the three will likely get traded, leaving the other two to battle for the top spot. Swihart has the most offensive upside in the group, and seems to be far more in the mix to win the job than he was a year ago. Swihart has made significant improvement defensively in the last year thanks to exhaustive work with catching instructors Jason Varitek and Chad Epperson. Leon is the best defender of the three, but his bat went nearly silent last season. Vazquez is coming off a down year at the plate but has a cannon arm. The area he needs to improve most at is game calling. -- Ian Browne

 

2019 MLB Spring Training battles to watch

WWW.MLB.COM

---

As we get closer to the 2019 regular season, it's a good time to check in on position battles around MLB. There are several intriguing competitions taking place during Cactus League and Grapefruit League play, from top prospects making bids to earn spots on their clubs' Opening Day rosters, to

 

So this kind of verifies my feelings about the game. You can certainly be an expert in certain aspects of the game but if you want some one to actually teach the game you need someone who has a complete grasp of the game. Anyone can know the fundamentals, not everyone can teach them - If you are talking catching, Varitek is a good choice.

[cp176]

I generally agree with your point of view, but would rank Vasquez on top with Swihart and Leon being a wash.

 

I agree with you for the time being but if Varitek is working hard specifically with Swihart is it not possible that the Sox think more highly of him than the majority of posters here do? If his catching skills continue to improve and the big if - he doesn't get traded- and he hits just a little (pretty low bar there), it is certainly possible that he becomes our number 1 before it is all over. I'm not saying that it will happen just that it might.

[BillyWilliams]

OPS from 2016-2018

 

.664 Leon (872 PAs- fueled largely by his 2016 season)

 

.641 Swihart (288 scattered PAs)

 

.635 Vazquez (798 PAs- fueled largely by his 2017 season)

 

It's been basically a wash, but Leon has been much lower after 2016:

.650 Vaz

.615 Swi

.579 Leon

 

To me, it comes down to defense and staff handling- not offense.

 

 

sox beat writer ian browne claims that game calling is the weakest part of vaz's game.

[harmony]

Of course they might not want him. But by acquiring Vazquez, they would increase their chances of one catcher breaking out. Plawecki still has options left and, really, isn’t much of a catcher anyway. At least defensively.

 

If Cleveland pursued a trade like this, they would increase their catching depth, which, like Boston, is their worst position.

 

Now thy might prefer a catcher better than Vazquez (of course they do), but they’re not going to get one for Danny Salazar...

The Guardians may be weakest in the outfield:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=C

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=LF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RF

[Kimmi]

sox beat writer ian browne claims that game calling is the weakest part of vaz's game.

 

And yet, I'm pretty sure that Vazquez got the nod over Leon in the postseason because the Sox liked what they saw with Vaz' game calling.

[moonslav59]

sox beat writer ian browne claims that game calling is the weakest part of vaz's game.

 

Yes, I saw that, and it's been known the Sox "call the pitches" from the bench, so that's one reason I call it "staff handling" and not "pitch calling."

 

Vaz has gotten better numbers with the same pitchers than Swihart, but admittedly Swihart's sample sizes are very small, except with pitchers like Johnson, Pom and Velazquez.

 

"Weakest part of his game" may not mean weak, although weaker than hitting implies a net negative affect.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

And yet, I'm pretty sure that Vazquez got the nod over Leon in the postseason because the Sox liked what they saw with Vaz' game calling.

 

Vaz doesn't call the pitches.

 

I think it's more about comfort level and Leon being burnt out, physically.

 

[moonslav59]

I've posted the CERAs by pitcher-catcher match-ups, now here's the OPS against:

 

This makes Vaz look worse than the ERA/CERA numbers look.

 

Sale

.561 Leon (1250 PAs)

.616 Flowers (2227)

.622 AJ Pier. (806)

.632 Navarro (388)

.643 Vaz (218)

.680 Avila (449)

.725 Phegley (363)

(Swihart has 0 time with Sale.)

(Some stark differentials.)

 

Price

.599 Avila (451)

.616 Jaso (713)

.634 JMolina (1878)

.636 Leon (769)

(.646 Swihart with just 48 PAs & 5.73 ERA)

.661 Navvaro (542)

.691 McCann (433)

.705 Shoppach (705)

.735 Vaz (1113)

(Leon has 100 points on Vaz.)

 

Porcello

.731 Leon (1889)

.735 Avila (2253)

.737 Vaz (564)

.774 Swihart (498)

.779 Laid (1285)

.831 Holaday (373)

(It doesn't seem to matter as much with Porcello)

 

ERod

.662 Swihart (301)

.677 Leon (415)

.723 Vaz (1178)

.778 Hanigan (221)

 

Johnson

.727 Leon 203

.759 Swihart 199

.888 Vaz 153

 

Velazquez

.660 Leon 130

.794 Swihart 87

.796 Vaz 237

 

Kimbrel

.495 Vaz 332

.499 Leon 306

.500 McCann 633

(.813 Swihart with just 25 PAs)

(Pretty close)

 

Joe Kelly

.619 Vaz 409

.698 Swihart 288

.721 YMolina 688

.751 T Cruz 333

.761 Hanigan 403

.785 Leon 250

(Weird Leon dynamic.)

 

Barnes

.643 Vaz 417

.676 Leon 344

.861 Swihart 169

(Scary Swi numbers)

 

Hembree

.579 Swihart 97

.740 Leon 333

.843 Vaz 365

(Swi looks great here.)

 

Workman

.647 AJ Pier 182

(.670n Swihart with just 28 PAs)

.708 Vaz 282

.814 Leon 135

[notin]

A lot of these differences are being attributed solely to the catcher, but who the pitcher is facing (and where) also matters.

 

Over 200 PAs (a common sample size here), a single home run can be worth as much as 0.025 in OPS...

[Kimmi]

Vaz doesn't call the pitches.

 

I think it's more about comfort level and Leon being burnt out, physically.

 

 

You have posted that before, and I may be wrong, but I think Vaz does call his own pitches.

[cp176]

Vaz doesn't call the pitches.

 

I think it's more about comfort level and Leon being burnt out, physically.

 

 

That might explain why he looks to the dugout before and after every pitch. Just kidding with you but it is pretty obvious.

[moonslav59]

You have posted that before, and I may be wrong, but I think Vaz does call his own pitches.

 

I can't find a link to support my point, but I thought I read it somewhere, and Vaz always looks to the dug out for a long time between pitches.

 

I'm not 100% positive.

[notin]

Now the public statement by Dombrowski is he wants to trade a catcher for “starter depth” to protect against Sale and/or Porcello leaving.

 

The more I think about this, the more I realize this has to be a red herring. The Sox are NOT going to get protection for one of 9-10 fWAR worth of starting pitchers by trading any of their three backup catchers. Dombrowski can’t be this naive. The man has probably negotiated over 100 trades in his MLB career and must have a better notion of how other GMs value players. So this must be a negotiating ploy to add to the bullpen.

 

But even then, what can they get for any of them?

 

I figure the best matches might be:

 

1) Blake Swihart to Miami for Tayron Guerrero. Guerrero is a 28yo career minor leaguer who throws about 99mph but has battled some control. Sort of like Ryan Brasier. Miami has no urgent need for Swihart, but a 27yo backup catcher with experience at multiple positions can’t hurt a rebuilding franchise, who has the time to see if he can ever regain top prospect form.

2) Christian Vazquez to Atlanta for Aroldis Vizcaino. The Braves are reportedly looking for a closer , which means they don’t think the oft-injured Vizcaino is the guy. The money is roughly equal, and Vizcaino still throws about 97mph on his healthy days. The big obstacle is the Braves might not view catcher as their biggest need.

3) Vazquez to Oakland for Fernando Rodney. Oakland has only Josh Phegley and Chris Hermann on their 40-man roster as catchers, and both are older than Vazquez and probably shown the world their ceilings. The A’s are loaded at bullpen, and 42 year old Rodney, who got his start at closer under Dombrowski, is probably expendable. Money is about the same. The downside for Oakland is they do have Sean Murphy as one of their best prospects ready to step in at catcher. Personally I am no fan of Rodney and his propensity for walking hitters, but he has had a good career and still routinely tops 95mph.

4) Blake Swihart to Oakland for Frankie Montas. When not overstocking his team with 1b and CF, Beane does have a habit of acquiring versatile players. Former Sox prospect Montas is out of options and hasn’t forced his way into the rotation as many hoped he would. Swihart doesn’t create the same logjam in Oakland that Vazquez would. Montas and his 97mph fastball (a trait Dombrowski historically loves) could slide into the Sox pen this year and become a starter option in 2020. His projected 0.9 fWAR doesn’t make him look much more valuable than Swihart.

 

Thoughts?

[moonslav59]

Now the public statement by Dombrowski is he wants to trade a catcher for “starter depth” to protect against Sale and/or Porcello leaving.

 

The more I think about this, the more I realize this has to be a red herring. The Sox are NOT going to get protection for one of 9-10 fWAR worth of starting pitchers by trading any of their three backup catchers. Dombrowski can’t be this naive. The man has probably negotiated over 100 trades in his MLB career and must have a better notion of how other GMs value players. So this must be a negotiating ploy to add to the bullpen.

 

But even then, what can they get for any of them?

 

I figure the best matches might be:

 

1) Blake Swihart to Miami for Tayron Guerrero. Guerrero is a 28yo career minor leaguer who throws about 99mph but has battled some control. Sort of like Ryan Brasier. Miami has no urgent need for Swihart, but a 27yo backup catcher with experience at multiple positions can’t hurt a rebuilding franchise, who has the time to see if he can ever regain top prospect form.

2) Christian Vazquez to Atlanta for Aroldis Vizcaino. The Braves are reportedly looking for a closer , which means they don’t think the oft-injured Vizcaino is the guy. The money is roughly equal, and Vizcaino still throws about 97mph on his healthy days. The big obstacle is the Braves might not view catcher as their biggest need.

3) Vazquez to Oakland for Fernando Rodney. Oakland has only Josh Phegley and Chris Hermann on their 40-man roster as catchers, and both are older than Vazquez and probably shown the world their ceilings. The A’s are loaded at bullpen, and 42 year old Rodney, who got his start at closer under Dombrowski, is probably expendable. Money is about the same. The downside for Oakland is they do have Sean Murphy as one of their best prospects ready to step in at catcher. Personally I am no fan of Rodney and his propensity for walking hitters, but he has had a good career and still routinely tops 95mph.

4) Blake Swihart to Oakland for Frankie Montas. When not overstocking his team with 1b and CF, Beane does have a habit of acquiring versatile players. Former Sox prospect Montas is out of options and hasn’t forced his way into the rotation as many hoped he would. Swihart doesn’t create the same logjam in Oakland that Vazquez would. Montas and his 97mph fastball (a trait Dombrowski historically loves) could slide into the Sox pen this year and become a starter option in 2020. His projected 0.9 fWAR doesn’t make him look much more valuable than Swihart.

 

Thoughts?

 

Well, if they are planning on resetting the tax and having at least 1 off year to rebuild, then getting a mediocre SP'er for a catcher could make sense, but you are right, they starter will not be a good one. He shouldn't be any better than Johnson or Velazquez.

 

The statement makes no sense to me. If he wanted to trade a catcher, he should have said he wanted to keep all 3. Now, teams know to just wait it out.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would consider trading Swihart for a prospect, but I would want a really good prospect in return, a CF prospect would be ideal. I would also consider trading Swihart for a relief arm, but the relief arm would need to be cost-controlled and ready to contribute in 2019.

 

If the Red Sox are unable to strike a deal, I wouldn't trade Swihart for below value. Instead, I would send S.Leon to AAA. Maybe someone picks him up, but they would have to take on his 2.5 million salary. Even if another team picks him up, the Red Sox could find a way to reacquire him if necessary. It goes without saying that Leon has a fringy bat, making him a somewhat marginal MLB player.

[BillyWilliams]

I would consider trading Swihart for a prospect, but I would want a really good prospect in return, a CF prospect would be ideal. I would also consider trading Swihart for a relief arm, but the relief arm would need to be cost-controlled and ready to contribute in 2019. Did you also get that pet unicorn you asked for for Christmas?

 

If the Red Sox are unable to strike a deal, I wouldn't trade Swihart for below value. Instead, I would send S.Leon to AAA. He would have to clear waivers first since he is out of options..... Maybe someone picks him up, but they would have to take on his 2.5 million salary. Even if another team picks him up, the Red Sox could find a way to reacquire him if necessary. It goes without saying that Leon has a fringy bat, making him a somewhat marginal MLB player.

 

....