2019 Spring Training Thread

[kenmeister]

Also, Cora is extremely impressed with the condition that ERod is in.

 

I’m putting him down for 18 wins then

[moonslav59]

I’m putting him down for 18 wins then

 

That would be sweet.

 

We have 5 guys that could win 18, if they get 32 starts (very likely not all at once).

[BillyWilliams]

Sale says he feels great.

 

Where is your concern for Paxton, a guy who has never pitched over 161 innins?

 

He's what? Your number 2 guy?

 

Your number 5 is like 57 years old.

 

Happ looked good last year, but he's on the wrong side of prime.

 

 

I certainly did express my concern with Paxton's health (and disappointment with the trade, I wanted Kluber). But I kept it on the Yankee thread about Paxton, ya know, kinda where it's supposed to be posted, not on the sox ST thread.

 

As for Happ and CC, they put up almost the same ERA as price and had a much better ERA than porcello. While I certainly have health concerns with CC, Happ has been pretty consistent the past few years and performed very well for us after the trade despite your constant droning on and on about players "on the wrong side of prime".

[Slasher9]

Spring Training topic:

Boston enters Spring Training as the defending world series champions.

Boston Red Sox 2018 World Series Champions.

[mvp 78]

Spring Training topic:

Boston enters Spring Training as the defending world series champions.

Boston Red Sox 2018 World Series Champions.

 

Big if true!

[Nick]

Why so much pissing contest?

 

Sox fans are pretty happy with their team. We all realize Yankees CAN win. But we still like our chances.

 

Allocation of resources. With our outfield defense, offensive firepower, good starting pitching, we think we can outscore our opponents.

 

I will say it again. I'd be more worried having signed Kimbrel to a 4 year contract than not having him. Let that sink in.

 

There's a strong possibility we'll gain additional cap space depending how the spring training shakes out.

 

We'll have enough cap space to improve the team, again, in July.

 

On paper, this is our best starting five in quite some time. Throw in healthy Wright and our rotation is stellar.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Nick

[mvp 78]

We all realize Yankees CAN win.

 

Nope.

[moonslav59]

I certainly did express my concern with Paxton's health (and disappointment with the trade, I wanted Kluber). But I kept it on the Yankee thread about Paxton, ya know, kinda where it's supposed to be posted, not on the sox ST thread.

 

As for Happ and CC, they put up almost the same ERA as price and had a much better ERA than porcello. While I certainly have health concerns with CC, Happ has been pretty consistent the past few years and performed very well for us after the trade despite your constant droning on and on about players "on the wrong side of prime".

 

Fair enough on Paxton.

 

I guess I just don't put as much weight on just last year's production level.

 

I like Happ. He's good, but he's due to decline, despite not doing so last year, when his age indicated he probably should have.

 

I've been waiting for CC to drop, but it hasn't happened. Surely, he could have another good year in him, but to me, the odds are he gets worse.

 

Price and Porcello are not at the ages where you'd expect a significant decline.

 

Eovaldi is a question mark much like Paxton is. If they both pitch to their ability and put up 200 innings, it would be a big boost. Paxton has a better record and numbers, but I think Eovaldi might surprise people this year.

 

Did I forget to mention how happy I am we have..

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

[BillyWilliams]

Fair enough on Paxton.

 

I guess I just don't put as much weight on just last year's production level.

 

I like Happ. He's good, but he's due to decline, despite not doing so last year, when his age indicated he probably should have.

 

I've been waiting for CC to drop, but it hasn't happened. Surely, he could have another good year in him, but to me, the odds are he gets worse.

 

Price and Porcello are not at the ages where you'd expect a significant decline.

 

Eovaldi is a question mark much like Paxton is. If they both pitch to their ability and put up 200 innings, it would be a big boost. Paxton has a better record and numbers, but I think Eovaldi might surprise people this year.

 

Did I forget to mention how happy I am we have..

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

You insist on "age related decline" and then give 2 examples of how it hasn't really hit CC or Happ yet. So it's really just wishing on your behalf until we see otherwise. Some guys are just able to reinvent themselves at the latter stages of their careers.

 

One could argue that price has started to decline since 2015 and that porcello is the pitcher he has shown the past 2 seasons, which is a 4.25+ ERA pitcher........

[jacksonianmarch]

Chris Sale finished the year with less innings than Paxton, has a bum shoulder and had a significant velocity decline. Probably not the best guy to be touting when you don't even know if he is healthy. And Paxton took awhile to develop. He did miss time in 2017 with arm issues, but his missed time in 2018 was due to being hit by a comebacker. I would take Paxton's likelihood to succeed over Sale's based on the injuries alone. Edited February 12, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[BillyWilliams]

Chris Sale finished the year with less innings than Paxton, has a bum shoulder and had a significant velocity decline. Probably not the best guy to be touting when you don't even know if he is healthy. And Paxton took awhile to develop. He did miss time in 2017 with arm issues, but his missed time in 2018 was due to being hit by a comebacker. I would take Paxton's likelihood to succeed over Sale's based on the injuries alone.

 

Can you please pass along what you are smoking??

 

You take sale over Paxton every day and twice on Sunday.............

[jacksonianmarch]

Can you please pass along what you are smoking??

 

You take sale over Paxton every day and twice on Sunday.............

 

I absolutely do...if healthy. If you're talking a recurrent mystery shoulder complaint causing sapped velocity and no cause, I call a labral injury. If healthy, Sale is FAR superior to Paxton. Not even close. I just think Sale is hiding a bad injury

[moonslav59]

You insist on "age related decline" and then give 2 examples of how it hasn't really hit CC or Happ yet. So it's really just wishing on your behalf until we see otherwise. Some guys are just able to reinvent themselves at the latter stages of their careers.

 

One could argue that price has started to decline since 2015 and that porcello is the pitcher he has shown the past 2 seasons, which is a 4.25+ ERA pitcher........

 

No, it's not wishing. The age curve often has outlier seasons, so I expect the two I mentioned to fall back to the curve.

[notin]

I absolutely do...if healthy. If you're talking a recurrent mystery shoulder complaint causing sapped velocity and no cause, I call a labral injury. If healthy, Sale is FAR superior to Paxton. Not even close. I just think Sale is hiding a bad injury

 

 

Yes this was evident after watching his fastball velocity decline from 94.4 mph in 2017 all the way down to 94.7 mph in 2018.

 

 

Or were you referring to his velocity at the end of the season? Those 4 games?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

Really on the last outing was a “decline.” The other 3 looked like his April numbers...

Edited February 12, 2019 by notin

[Kimmi]

I’m putting him down for 18 wins then

 

I'm in.

 

This is ERod's year.

[Kimmi]

Steven Wright will be wearing a knee brace when pitching this season. He says that he will never e 100% again.

 

That doesn't sound very encouraging.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Bah this is taking too long. I'm ready for the game threads to begin.

[dgalehouse]

Bah this is taking too long. I'm ready for the game threads to begin.

 

This stuff , while sometimes repetitive , redundant and tedious , is a 1000 % saner than the game threads .

[bkzwhitestrican]

This stuff , while sometimes repetitive , redundant and tedious , is a 1000 % saner than the game threads .

 

Yes that's what I miss! I don't really comment on GTs unless the Yanks are playing, but I enjoy skulking in the background and reading everyone's overreactions

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes this was evident after watching his fastball velocity decline from 94.4 mph in 2017 all the way down to 94.7 mph in 2018.

 

 

Or were you referring to his velocity at the end of the season? Those 4 games?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

 

Really on the last outing was a “decline.” The other 3 looked like his April numbers...

 

Im absolutely talking about his end of season decline. He was way down from his average. Even in the World Series, his final start he was at least 3mph off from what he was prior to the DL stints.

[notin]

Im absolutely talking about his end of season decline. He was way down from his average. Even in the World Series, his final start he was at least 3mph off from what he was prior to the DL stints.

 

But that’s still just 4 games plus some postseason after a pretty good layoff. Interestingly, his first game back was one of his hardest throwing. So that begs the question - was he throwing softer because that was all he could do? Or because he was trying to find his optimum velocity again?

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, the first game back when he threw harder was the followed by another lengthy DL stint. When he returned from the final DL stint, he wasn’t the same guy

[moonslav59]

Well, the first game back when he threw harder was the followed by another lengthy DL stint. When he returned from the final DL stint, he wasn’t the same guy

 

One assumes both DL stints were for the same injury, so the throwing strong after the first stint kin of shows there was no major issue. Now, if his second stint was the result of a worsening of the original issue, then maybe there will be lasting effects.

 

Nobody really knows for sure- not even his doctors, but I'm trusting Sale when he says all is good.

[moonslav59]

Well, the first game back when he threw harder was the followed by another lengthy DL stint. When he returned from the final DL stint, he wasn’t the same guy

 

Did you notice his first game back after the second stint he threw harder than opening day? In fact, he threw harder than his first 7 games of 2018.

 

His lowest velocity games in 2018 were...

 

start

27th start (last start)

4th start

2nd start

26th start

3rd start

6th start

7th start

25th start

1st start

13th start

5th start

12th start

11th,18th start & 24th start (first start after 2nd DL)

 

It doesn't look as hopeless as you make it out to be.

 

The most concerning part is that his velocity went down every one of his last 3 starts of the regular season, but that's not much different from the start of the season.

 

Start of season:

95>92>93>91>96>93>93

 

Return after first DL (short)

97

 

Return after 2nd DL (longer)

96>94>93>90

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

[Slasher9]

CC Sabathia > Chris Sale. got it.

hopefully we can score a lot of runs this season because our pitching is so terrible.

[moonslav59]

2nd half Yankee Starter Numbers:

 

ERA Pitcher WHIP

5.57 Severino 1.43

3.95 Paxton 1.12 (SEA)

3.91 CC Sab 1.40

2.85 Tanaka 1.13

2.69 Happ 1.05

 

Red Sox

1.55 Sale 0.69

2.25 Price 0.97

3.22 Eovaldi 1.27

4.54 Porcello 1.07

5.79 ERod 1.55

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

CC Sabathia > Chris Sale. got it.

hopefully we can score a lot of runs this season because our pitching is so terrible.

 

That's a pretty dumb takeaway.

[jacksonianmarch]

2nd half Yankee Starter Numbers:

 

ERA Pitcher WHIP

5.57 Severino 1.43

3.95 Paxton 1.12 (SEA)

3.91 CC Sab 1.40

2.85 Tanaka 1.13

2.69 Happ 1.05

 

Red Sox

1.55 Sale 0.69

2.25 Price 0.97

3.22 Eovaldi 1.27

4.54 Porcello 1.07

5.79 ERod 1.55

 

 

 

 

When did Happ end up on the sox?

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets look at 2018 WAR (Fangraphs)

 

Yankees

Severino- 5.7

Paxton- 3.8

Tanaka- 2.7

Happ- 3.2

Sabathia- 2.5

 

Red Sox

Sale-6.5

Price- 2.7

Porcello- 2.7

ERod- 2.3

Eovaldi- 2.2

 

Total WAR, Yanks- 17.9, Sox- 16.4

 

Most pundits like the sox rotation better because they think David Price is still an ace and Chris Sale is a beast. Price is no longer an ace. Heck, Happ has out-WAR'd him two years running. Sale is a beast. He just may not be healthy. Our 2-5 out-WAR'd your 2-5 by 2.3 WAR. That's not insignificant. I know the injury bug can hit pitchers more than others. I know both sides have injury concerns. But where the sox have a distinct advantage (the ace slot), the injury concern is on the shoulder of the sox ace. That isn't deniable. Severino really hasn't had much in the way of injury concerns aside from a short DL stint for some elbow tightness two or three years ago.

 

Beyond the ace spot, yes, the Yanks have two older pitchers. The sox have one in Price. Both have been very effective when healthy. Price was very effective when healthy last year too. Price has had a bad elbow that caused him to miss more than half the 2017 season and a few weeks of 2018. Paxton seems to be injured yearly. Porcello seems to continuously take the mound 30+ times. 3 of the last 4 years, Happ has as well. Tanaka has started 27 games or more 3 years running but has been DL'd in consecutive seasons for lower body issues. ERod has been DL'd the past 2 years with lower body issues. CC has an arthritic knee and just had a frickin coronary stent placed. Eovaldi is a walking DL with a twice repaired UCL. The idea that either team is head and shoulders healthier than the other is pure folly. Both sides have injury risks. I just think (and back it up by STATS) that the Yankees rotation is more well rounded with the sox having a good supporting cast behind an unquestioned ace. If the ace isn't ace-like this year due to his shoulder, the Yanks will have the better rotation. If multiple injury risks on the Yanks side go down, the sox will have the better rotation.

[kenmeister]

Lets look at 2018 WAR (Fangraphs)

 

Yankees

Severino- 5.7

Paxton- 3.8

Tanaka- 2.7

Happ- 3.2

Sabathia- 2.5

 

Red Sox

Sale-6.5

Price- 2.7

Porcello- 2.7

ERod- 2.3

Eovaldi- 2.2

 

Total WAR, Yanks- 17.9, Sox- 16.4

 

Most pundits like the sox rotation better because they think David Price is still an ace and Chris Sale is a beast. Price is no longer an ace. Heck, Happ has out-WAR'd him two years running. Sale is a beast. He just may not be healthy. Our 2-5 out-WAR'd your 2-5 by 2.3 WAR. That's not insignificant. I know the injury bug can hit pitchers more than others. I know both sides have injury concerns. But where the sox have a distinct advantage (the ace slot), the injury concern is on the shoulder of the sox ace. That isn't deniable. Severino really hasn't had much in the way of injury concerns aside from a short DL stint for some elbow tightness two or three years ago.

 

Beyond the ace spot, yes, the Yanks have two older pitchers. The sox have one in Price. Both have been very effective when healthy. Price was very effective when healthy last year too. Price has had a bad elbow that caused him to miss more than half the 2017 season and a few weeks of 2018. Paxton seems to be injured yearly. Porcello seems to continuously take the mound 30+ times. 3 of the last 4 years, Happ has as well. Tanaka has started 27 games or more 3 years running but has been DL'd in consecutive seasons for lower body issues. ERod has been DL'd the past 2 years with lower body issues. CC has an arthritic knee and just had a frickin coronary stent placed. Eovaldi is a walking DL with a twice repaired UCL. The idea that either team is head and shoulders healthier than the other is pure folly. Both sides have injury risks. I just think (and back it up by STATS) that the Yankees rotation is more well rounded with the sox having a good supporting cast behind an unquestioned ace. If the ace isn't ace-like this year due to his shoulder, the Yanks will have the better rotation. If multiple injury risks on the Yanks side go down, the sox will have the better rotation.

 

E-Rod and Eovaldi are going to have WAY more than 4.5 WAR between them in 2019. Bank on it