I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second

[Dojji]

So if I’m reading this correctly the numbers agree with me that Velazquez could be better than Johnson.

 

Could be? Absolutely. Many things "could be" true.

 

That said HV is incredibly useful right where he is. Do you have any idea how rare a real, high quality long relief man is? There really are not all that many of them.

 

Also -- when asked to face batters multiple times through a lineup, HV has not fared all that well. Could be a combination of small sample size and not being fully "stretched out," but the guy's so dominant in his own role that I'm reluctant to experiment.

[Dojji]

Why not have him in the pen to start the season? Good long reliever, mopup guy who can handle multi-inning stints.

 

Then, when one of the rotation goes down, as they inevitably will, Johnson can start.

 

His flexibility is a big part of his potential value.

 

Johnson could play that role, or even be used to give a starter a week off here and there as needed.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Why not have him in the pen to start the season? Good long reliever, mopup guy who can handle multi-inning stints.

 

Then, when one of the rotation goes down, as they inevitably will, Johnson can start.

 

His flexibility is a big part of his potential value.

 

Because the Red Sox have other guys who can do that including Wright and Velazquez. If they get desperate, they could also call on Shawaryn. Thus, along with the top 5 starters, the Red Sox would have Wright as the 6th starter, Velazquez as the 7th starter, and Shawaryn as the 8th starter. This is tremendous depth, freeing the Red Sox to trade away a quality pitcher like B.Johnson for a really good prospect.

[notin]

If the Sox sign Eovaldi, Johnson might be in a fight for a roster spot with Wright and Workman. Johnson has the advantage of being left-handed but the disadvantage of being the worst pitcher of the three. If injuries do not create a spot for Johnson, he might be traded or released.

 

Velasquez has options and probably starts the season in Pawtucket, barring significant injuries. But he will get his innings in...

[Bellhorn04]

Because the Red Sox have other guys who can do that including Wright and Velazquez. If they get desperate, they could also call on Shawaryn. Thus, along with the top 5 starters, the Red Sox would have Wright as the 6th starter, Velazquez as the 7th starter, and Shawaryn as the 8th starter. This is tremendous depth, freeing the Red Sox to trade away a quality pitcher like B.Johnson for a really good prospect.

 

Wright's health is a major question mark to put it kindly.

[notin]

Wright's health is a major question mark to put it kindly.

 

Johnson probably needs at least one more injury to make the team. Hey, if Thornburg isn’t recovered enough to get an arbitration offer, that might work...

[cp176]

Annnnd..... Here we go again!

 

Where is Hanley when we need him and how about bringing back Ben. lol lol lol

 

It is the boring off season and the tired old drum continues to be beaten. Still better than nothing.

[cp176]

Counting on Wright I think for anything is somewhat of a pipe dream. In the last two seasons, he has pitched fewer than 60 innings in each. If he comes back at all, it should probably be seen as gravy on them tatoes.

 

Sadly i feel about the same way about Pedroia. I am just glad that second base looks fairly well covered whether or not he comes back and stays healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

Because the Red Sox have other guys who can do that including Wright and Velazquez. If they get desperate, they could also call on Shawaryn. Thus, along with the top 5 starters, the Red Sox would have Wright as the 6th starter, Velazquez as the 7th starter, and Shawaryn as the 8th starter. This is tremendous depth, freeing the Red Sox to trade away a quality pitcher like B.Johnson for a really good prospect.

 

I don't think you get a really good prospect for Johnson. And the 2019 team is definitely in win now mode. You trade him only if there's no place for him. IMHO

[moonslav59]

So if I’m reading this correctly the numbers agree with me that Velazquez could be better than Johnson.

 

They look pretty close to me, but HV has been better in MLB and AAA. He's older, too.

 

Both look like decent 6th starters/ long relief guys to me. Counting on more is wishful thinking.

[moonslav59]

I don't think you get a really good prospect for Johnson. And the 2019 team is definitely in win now mode. You trade him only if there's no place for him. IMHO

 

In theory, trading Johnson & Swihart for a better 6th starter (ML ready) makes sense, especially if the guy we get has options remaining, but it's not always easy to do when most teams are facing rule 5 roster crunches.

[kenmeister]

They look pretty close to me, but HV has been better in MLB and AAA. He's older, too.

 

Both look like decent 6th starters/ long relief guys to me. Counting on more is wishful thinking.

 

I'm in the camp where you never really know until you give a guy a chance.

 

For instance, let's take a look at this pitcher.

 

Age 26 season: 7-13 in 28 starts, 160.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.512 WHIP

Age 27 season: 14-11 in 33 starts, 219.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed

Age 28 season: 13-10 in 33 starts, 201.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed

Age 29 season: 12-14 in 31 starts, 210.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed (but also in strikeouts, and hit by pitch)

 

You would probably say he's a respectable innings eater who is 'effectively wild'. But at age 30, he put it all together.

 

Age 30 season: 19-8 in 34 starts, 255.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 308 strikeouts

 

And from then on, he went on to become a 300 game winner. That pitcher, of course, is Randy Johnson, and I'm not saying Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson or if we'd stuck with Kason Gabbard etc. could be Randy, but what I am saying is that Montreal gave up on him, and Seattle stuck with him, and he blossomed out of mediocre numbers. I'd like to think the 5th spot in the rotation is the 'experiment', where we give someone promising a chance to show what he can do. Not that I'll complain if we resign Eovaldi though.

[moonslav59]

I'm in the camp where you never really know until you give a guy a chance.

 

For instance, let's take a look at this pitcher.

 

Age 26 season: 7-13 in 28 starts, 160.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.512 WHIP

Age 27 season: 14-11 in 33 starts, 219.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed

Age 28 season: 13-10 in 33 starts, 201.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed

Age 29 season: 12-14 in 31 starts, 210.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, led the league in walks allowed (but also in strikeouts, and hit by pitch)

 

You would probably say he's a respectable innings eater who is 'effectively wild'. But at age 30, he put it all together.

 

Age 30 season: 19-8 in 34 starts, 255.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 308 strikeouts

 

And from then on, he went on to become a 300 game winner. That pitcher, of course, is Randy Johnson, and I'm not saying Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson or if we'd stuck with Kason Gabbard etc. could be Randy, but what I am saying is that Montreal gave up on him, and Seattle stuck with him, and he blossomed out of mediocre numbers. I'd like to think the 5th spot in the rotation is the 'experiment', where we give someone promising a chance to show what he can do. Not that I'll complain if we resign Eovaldi though.

 

I actually think our pen is a higher priority than filling a rotation slot, but Wright's injury is worrisome. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting the year with just Johnson, Velzquez and Shawaryn as our 5th starter and starter depth. If I knew Wright was going to be okay, I'd feel better about that plan.

 

I'd love Eovaldi, but I would not want to give him 3 or more years. That might mean we won't bring him back. I'd be okay with that, if we sign 2 solid pen arms, one of whom can close. Then, maybe sign a 6th starter type as insurance.

[Dojji]

Wright's health is a major question mark to put it kindly.

 

He's still on the depth chart for a reason.

[moonslav59]

He's still on the depth chart for a reason.

 

The big question is does he start the season on the DL, the 60 day DL (which prolongs a roster move) or active?

[Kimmi]

I don't need to argue this. The real world has proven you wrong unless you "No True Scotsman" your way around several rather obvious moments in history.

 

The real world has done no such thing.

[Kimmi]

Why not have him in the pen to start the season? Good long reliever, mopup guy who can handle multi-inning stints.

 

Then, when one of the rotation goes down, as they inevitably will, Johnson can start.

 

His flexibility is a big part of his potential value.

 

I do like his flexibility, though the fact that he has no options remaining kind of hinders his flexibility in another sense.

[moonslav59]

Players with zero options:

 

Wright

Johnson

Workman

Hembree

 

Swihart

Leon

Vaz

Nunez

Pearce

Porcello

[Kimmi]

Players with zero options:

 

Wright

Johnson

Workman

Hembree

 

Swihart

Leon

Vaz

Nunez

Pearce

Porcello

 

The lack of options in that first group of pitchers creates a roster dilemma for the team, because none of those guys are good/healthy enough to have guaranteed spots. That said, I prefer to keep as many of those guys as realistically possible, even though that might mean that someone a little more deserving of a roster spot starts the year in AAA.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of these roster rules are a real nuisance.

[moonslav59]

The lack of options in that first group of pitchers creates a roster dilemma for the team, because none of those guys are good/healthy enough to have guaranteed spots. That said, I prefer to keep as many of those guys as realistically possible, even though that might mean that someone a little more deserving of a roster spot starts the year in AAA.

 

Ithink trading two from Johnson, Hembree & Swihart for a better 5/6 starter or set-up man would solve a lot of problems.

[Bellhorn04]

Ithink trading two from Johnson, Hembree & Swihart for a better 5/6 starter or set-up man would solve a lot of problems.

 

See any possible matchups for such a deal?

[moonslav59]

See any possible matchups for such a deal?

 

It's not easy, since many teams aren't looking to add out-of-options players with mediocre outlooks.

 

I'm not an expert on other team's player talents, especially marginally better players than Johnson & Hembree.

[notin]

Could be? Absolutely. Many things "could be" true.

 

That said HV is incredibly useful right where he is. Do you have any idea how rare a real, high quality long relief man is? There really are not all that many of them.

 

Also -- when asked to face batters multiple times through a lineup, HV has not fared all that well. Could be a combination of small sample size and not being fully "stretched out," but the guy's so dominant in his own role that I'm reluctant to experiment.

 

 

Shouldn’t that be more applicable for a right fielder than a long reliever/spot starter?

[notin]

See any possible matchups for such a deal?

 

It’s no biggie finding someone who’d take Hembree and Johnson. But for that package the Sox would need to find a team with no definitive catcher and a fifth starter who is or is about to get a little too pricey...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s no biggie finding someone who’d take Hembree and Johnson. But for that package the Sox would need to find a team with no definitive catcher and a fifth starter who is or is about to get a little too pricey...

 

You mean Hembree, Johnson and Swihart?

 

The world of #5 starters is kind of a fringe zone anyway, like the world of middle relievers, it's in constant flux. Johnson already is a prototype 5/6 starter.

[moonslav59]

You mean Hembree, Johnson and Swihart?

 

The world of #5 starters is kind of a fringe zone anyway, like the world of middle relievers, it's in constant flux. Johnson already is a prototype 5/6 starter.

 

The idea was to get someone better than Johnson or Hembree and not so "fringy" as the other team builds depth and balance.

[notin]

You mean Hembree, Johnson and Swihart?

 

The world of #5 starters is kind of a fringe zone anyway, like the world of middle relievers, it's in constant flux. Johnson already is a prototype 5/6 starter.

 

Eh. I look at Johnson as a borderline starter that could and should be upgraded...

[moonslav59]

Eh. I look at Johnson as a borderline starter that could and should be upgraded...

 

Agreed,

 

Ideally, we sign Eovaldi and Johnson offers very nice depth as a 6/7 starter with HV and maybe Wright, if healthy.

[dgalehouse]

Regarding Wright and Pedroia : The Sox esteemed team physician, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz , offered his expert medical opinion: The good doctor said ; " Knee injuries can be tricky " . Edited November 26, 2018 by dgalehouse