I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second

[Dojji]

This kid is going to fly under the radar if guys like me don't toot his horn from time to time so permit me to do exactly that

 

He wasn't part of the recent World Series success, and our rotation is stacked right now which makes it hard for him to fight for a job here, but let's give the guy some love anyway, because what he's done has actually been moderately impressive.

 

This year Johnson pitched just short of 100 innings with an ERA+ of just a tick over 100. For a replacement starter that's fantastic work, and exactly what we needed him to be this year. And he did it for a medium sized sample of innings, no SSS here, especially for a guy who is still learning how to be a big leaguer and isn't a feature of the regular starting rotation.

 

The reason I want to bring this up is that if Johnson can pitch at approximately the same level over a full season workload, he's not a tweener or a fringy starter. if this is the real Brian Johnson he could replace Rick Porcello tomorrow.

 

In fact unless something disastrous happens to him next year, such as an injury or major regression, I might expect that to be the plan in 2020.

 

It's been a long time since this team developed a competent, homegrown starting pitcher. Wright came close but health issues put him in the gray area, but Johnson's looking like he might be the one. Right now he's a mediocre #3 starter or a great #5. If he can take one more step forward he could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come.

[harmony]

Steamer projects Boston lefthander Brian Johnson with a 2019 ERA of 5.09 and a WAR of 0.3 in 23 starts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14272&position=P

 

Marcel projects Johnson with a 2019 ERA of 4.15 in 91 innings:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsbr02.shtml#all_pitching_proj

Edited November 14, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

I’m not a huge Brian Johnson fan, but I see his role next year as one of 3 options

 

1. Back-of-the-rotation starter. If the Sox don’t sign Eovaldi , he might be the guy. If the Sox do sign Eovaldi, does Johnson’s presence make Rodriguez trade bait?

2. Bullpen lefty. As he wasn’t so good out of the pen, and was better in the rotation, this seems illogical. But it’s also probably the most likely outcome.

3. Trade bait. He can’t be demoted and the Sox have needs. While there was apparently interest in him last March, not really sure it involved actual useful players. His trade value doesn’t appear stellar to me.

[notin]

This kid is going to fly under the radar if guys like me don't toot his horn from time to time so permit me to do exactly that

 

He wasn't part of the recent World Series success, and our rotation is stacked right now which makes it hard for him to fight for a job here, but let's give the guy some love anyway, because what he's done has actually been moderately impressive.

 

This year Johnson pitched just short of 100 innings with an ERA+ of just a tick over 100. For a replacement starter that's fantastic work, and exactly what we needed him to be this year. And he did it for a medium sized sample of innings, no SSS here, especially for a guy who is still learning how to be a big leaguer and isn't a feature of the regular starting rotation.

 

The reason I want to bring this up is that if Johnson can pitch at approximately the same level over a full season workload, he's not a tweener or a fringy starter. if this is the real Brian Johnson he could replace Rick Porcello tomorrow.

 

In fact unless something disastrous happens to him next year, such as an injury or major regression, I might expect that to be the plan in 2020.

 

It's been a long time since this team developed a competent, homegrown starting pitcher. Wright came close but health issues put him in the gray area, but Johnson's looking like he might be the one. Right now he's a mediocre #3 starter or a great #5. If he can take one more step forward he could be a fixture in the rotation for years to come.

 

Why would we consider Wright (acquired from Cleveland for Lars Anderson) a homegrown pitcher and not consider Eduardo Rodriguez (acquired from Baltimore for Andrew Miller) one?

[sk7326]

What Brian Johnson can't do (save for that astonishing start a couple of years ago) is provide Rick Porcello's bulk - which is incredibly valuable over the marathon. Eduardo Rodriguez was a competent homegrown starter with higher upside. He was acquired via trade, but you have to count that. I like Johnson but I am realistic.

 

That said, the value of multi-inning arms is higher than ever - and if Johnson can give them 100 innings in a swing role (and he has a better chance of doing that than Velasquez), so much the better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Johnson is a homer prone 4-5 inning pitcher who is well beyond the age of standard prospects. Porcello gives you 200IP or close to it every year. Johnson won’t get anywhere near that. Add in that your chief rival in the division murders lefties and you’ve got an issue

[moonslav59]

Johnson is a homer prone 4-5 inning pitcher who is well beyond the age of standard prospects. Porcello gives you 200IP or close to it every year. Johnson won’t get anywhere near that. Add in that your chief rival in the division murders lefties and you’ve got an issue

 

I hope to God we don't need Johnson going 200 IP next year. I like him as a complimentary piece, but he is not the prospect gem some are looking to discover or create out of thin air.

Edited November 14, 2018 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Johnson is a homer prone 4-5 inning pitcher who is well beyond the age of standard prospects. Porcello gives you 200IP or close to it every year. Johnson won’t get anywhere near that. Add in that your chief rival in the division murders lefties and you’ve got an issue

 

Johnson consumed 99 innings of spot starts/long relief with an ERA+ of 105 for $548,000. That made him a good value piece.

[notin]

Johnson consumed 99 innings of spot starts/long relief with an ERA+ of 105 for $548,000. That made him a good value piece.

 

He might be a nice value piece, but it’s flat out silly to think he can replace Porcello, whose barely 2 years older and infinitely more accomplished...

[moonslav59]

Johnson consumed 99 innings of spot starts/long relief with an ERA+ of 105 for $548,000. That made him a good value piece.

 

Yes, Johnson filled a big need for us. I'm glad he finally showed what we all hoped he might be able to do.

 

It would be great, if he could improve.

[Slasher9]

he will continue to fill the exact same role he has filled going forward (spot starter/long relief) as long as there is no need to get him off the 40 man.

although his name is johnson...he will never replace Big Dik Rik as a solid #3 SP.

[moonslav59]

he will continue to fill the exact same role he has filled going forward (spot starter/long relief) as long as there is no need to get him off the 40 man.

although his name is johnson...he will never replace Big Dik Rik as a solid #3 SP.

 

But, you doesn't hasta call me Johnson..."

[TylerD]

I’m not a huge Brian Johnson fan, but I see his role next year as one of 3 options

 

1. Back-of-the-rotation starter. If the Sox don’t sign Eovaldi , he might be the guy. If the Sox do sign Eovaldi, does Johnson’s presence make Rodriguez trade bait?

2. Bullpen lefty. As he wasn’t so good out of the pen, and was better in the rotation, this seems illogical. But it’s also probably the most likely outcome.

3. Trade bait. He can’t be demoted and the Sox have needs. While there was apparently interest in him last March, not really sure it involved actual useful players. His trade value doesn’t appear stellar to me.

 

Oh we will sign Eovaldi..... We will.

[radatz17]

I pretty much agree that what Johnson has shown to date may be the best that he ever will be as a major league pitcher.

 

Hope I am wrong if he stays with the Sox, but if Dombrowski can get anything for him this winter he should probably make

the trade.

 

Johnson has just not shown me enough to think that he will have an important spot on the 2019 squad. He could even be let

go at the end of spring training since he has no more minor league options.

[sk7326]

Johnson will be important - the way he was important this year. You need guys like him to get through the 162 game marathon. I wouldn't pay a ton for him - the ceiling is modest - but I respect what he brings to the party.

[Jasonbay44]

I would much rather have Porcello at his price, than risking having Brian Johnson be a main piece of the rotation. He's a good depth piece/fill in starter, but Porcello is a workhorse who doesn't get hurt. If we have Johnson take his role, were likely very very f***ed.

 

Johnson stepped up this season and got rid of the "sucks" tag and was pleasantly surprised by him, but I don't want him as more than a long reliever/spot starter, he's good at that role, let him be. People forget, there was whispers of him being DFA'd in spring training and early in the season and now we want him pitching 200+ innings? Yikes.

[Bellhorn04]

I would much rather have Porcello at his price, than risking having Brian Johnson be a main piece of the rotation. He's a good depth piece/fill in starter, but Porcello is a workhorse who doesn't get hurt.

 

Porcello has really been amazingly durable throughout his career.

[moonslav59]

Porcello has really been amazingly durable throughout his career.

 

..and he started eating many innings at a very early age.

[moonslav59]

I would much rather have Porcello at his price, than risking having Brian Johnson be a main piece of the rotation. He's a good depth piece/fill in starter, but Porcello is a workhorse who doesn't get hurt. If we have Johnson take his role, were likely very very f***ed.

 

Johnson stepped up this season and got rid of the "sucks" tag and was pleasantly surprised by him, but I don't want him as more than a long reliever/spot starter, he's good at that role, let him be. People forget, there was whispers of him being DFA'd in spring training and early in the season and now we want him pitching 200+ innings? Yikes.

 

Let's see how Johnson does next year, then we can think about how to replace Porcello.

 

$20M is a lot, but Porcello's innings pitched have a lot of value, even when he is kind of mediocre at times.

[Kimmi]

I would much rather have Porcello at his price, than risking having Brian Johnson be a main piece of the rotation. He's a good depth piece/fill in starter, but Porcello is a workhorse who doesn't get hurt. If we have Johnson take his role, were likely very very f***ed.

 

Johnson stepped up this season and got rid of the "sucks" tag and was pleasantly surprised by him, but I don't want him as more than a long reliever/spot starter, he's good at that role, let him be. People forget, there was whispers of him being DFA'd in spring training and early in the season and now we want him pitching 200+ innings? Yikes.

 

+100 There is no way that I'm replacing Porcello with Johson.

 

I like Johnson as a depth piece. The problem with him is that he has no more options, which somewhat limits the roster moves

[notin]

 

Johnson stepped up this season and got rid of the "sucks" tag and was pleasantly surprised by him, but I don't want him as more than a long reliever/spot starter, he's good at that role, let him be. People forget, there was whispers of him being DFA'd in spring training and early in the season and now we want him pitching 200+ innings? Yikes.

 

It is amazing how quickly our opinions change on players. Johnson from “DFA!!” to “Obvious Replacement for Most Recent Cy Young Winner.” Or Jor Kelly from “Not on the playoff roster!” to “closer of the future.”

 

Maybe if Manny Machado helps an old lady cross the street, he can get canonized on this board as “Saint Manny”...

[Bellhorn04]

It is amazing how quickly our opinions change on players. Johnson from “DFA!!” to “Obvious Replacement for Most Recent Cy Young Winner.”

 

That is the opinion of one person, the one who started this thread.

[Bellhorn04]

..and he started eating many innings at a very early age.

 

For a long while I looked at it that Ben basically traded Lester for Porcello, and I wasn't happy about it. It's taken me a long time to warm up to Porcello. But in 2018 he showed us a lot in every way, and he became part of Red Sox history. So it's time to say it...

 

Thanks Ben!

[Jasonbay44]

Porcello has really been amazingly durable throughout his career.

And to me that is very important. Porcello is wildly inconsistent from year to year. literally went from Cy Young to leading AL in losses and posting a negative WAR, but the innings he eats and his ability to stay healthy is crucial, especially with Sale and E-Rods injury histories.

 

For a long while I looked at it that Ben basically traded Lester for Porcello, and I wasn't happy about it. It's taken me a long time to warm up to Porcello. But in 2018 he showed us a lot in every way, and he became part of Red Sox history. So it's time to say it...

 

Thanks Ben!

I hated the trade at the time, especially as a HUGE Lester fan, but Porcello has won me over. I hated him year 1, but I ate crow and like him now. His comments and efforts in the playoffs made a fan and big time supporter of him.

[Jasonbay44]

It is amazing how quickly our opinions change on players. Johnson from “DFA!!” to “Obvious Replacement for Most Recent Cy Young Winner.” Or Jor Kelly from “Not on the playoff roster!” to “closer of the future.”

 

Maybe if Manny Machado helps an old lady cross the street, he can get canonized on this board as “Saint Manny”...

I mean this is always common on here. The Joe Kelly example is a funny one because the guy is so damn inconsistent I'm just not even going to make comments about him anymore. I thought he was a good reliever, then he s*** himself almost all regular season to the point where I thought "there is no way this guy can be on the playoff roster".. then he has an absolutely dominant playoff run and was a key cog in winning the world series... That being said, no way do I want him as the teams future closer lol.

[moonslav59]

For a long while I looked at it that Ben basically traded Lester for Porcello, and I wasn't happy about it. It's taken me a long time to warm up to Porcello. But in 2018 he showed us a lot in every way, and he became part of Red Sox history. So it's time to say it...

 

Thanks Ben!

 

Once the Lester re-signing was botched, the Lester>Cespedes>Porcello deal worked out fine, especially after the extension.

 

I'd have rather had Lester, but within the context Ben was in, we came out alright.

 

Here's a look at Lester and Porcello from 2015-2018. Remember, Lester is in the no-DH league.

 

Innings

Porcello 790

Lester 770

 

fWAR

Lester 13.6

Porcello 11.7

 

ERA-

Lester 81

Porcello 95

 

WHIP

Lester 1.19

Porcello 1.23

 

Pay

Lester: $95M/4 & still owed $60M/3 at ages 35-37.

Porcello: $74M/4 & still owed $21M/1 at age 30.

[Bellhorn04]

Once the Lester re-signing was botched, the Lester>Cespedes>Porcello deal worked out fine, especially after the extension.

 

I'd have rather had Lester, but within the context Ben was in, we came out alright.

 

Here's a look at Lester and Porcello from 2015-2018. Remember, Lester is in the no-DH league.

 

Innings

Porcello 790

Lester 770

 

fWAR

Lester 13.6

Porcello 11.7

 

ERA-

Lester 81

Porcello 95

 

WHIP

Lester 1.19

Porcello 1.23

 

Pay

Lester: $95M/4 & still owed $60M/3 at ages 35-37.

Porcello: $74M/4 & still owed $21M/1 at age 30.

 

Lester 1 ring

Porcello 1 ring

[Tedballgame]

That is the opinion of one person, the one who started this thread.

My opinion is that Johnson is a mediocre MLB pitcher with below average stuff, below average control and a horrendous pickoff move. He should only be used in an emergency. Not too valuable.

[notin]

My opinion is that Johnson is a mediocre MLB pitcher with below average stuff, below average control and a horrendous pickoff move. He should only be used in an emergency. Not too valuable.

 

I think his most valuable ability is pitching for minimum wage...

[moonslav59]

Lester 1 ring

Porcello 1 ring

 

Yes, good add.

 

To me, this is what makes the Porcello deal look good:

 

Pay

Lester: $95M/4 & still owed $60M/3 at ages 35-37.

Porcello: $74M/4 & still owed $21M/1 at age 30.