A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Not true.

 

I would take a well-pitched, well-defended, 1-0 game any day of the week over a 11-10 slugfest.

 

What's funny about that statement by Nick is that we have a solid zero number of chicks on this site who dig the long ball. We're zero for one LOL

 

So there's no chance of corroboration whatsoever.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox Notes‏ @SoxNotes 19m19 minutes ago

 

Red Sox since being swept by the Tigers in a doubleheader on Apr. 23:

 

.765 win % (13-4, T-1st in MLB)

 

121 runs scored (1st in MLB)

 

.283 AVG (1st in MLB)

 

.383 OBP (1st in MLB)

 

95 BB (1st in MLB)

 

2.74 ERA (1st in AL)

 

.190 opponent AVG (1st in MLB)

 

.586 opponent OPS (1st in MLB)

 

 

We have also had the best run differential in MLB at +69 since April 17th, per Bob Nightengale.

 

It's the other teams that should be worried.

 

The numbers are looking good, and the ye test backs 'em up.

 

I love our chances.

[notin]

What's funny about that statement by Nick is that we have a solid zero number of chicks on this site who dig the long ball. We're zero for one LOL

 

So there's no chance of corroboration whatsoever.

 

 

That’s because it’s from an ad campaign so old, the three then-active Major Leaguers involved are either enshrined in Cooperstown or held outside the Hall for chemically inducing those long balls...

[mvp 78]

What's funny about that statement by Nick is that we have a solid zero number of chicks on this site who dig the long ball. We're zero for one LOL

 

So there's no chance of corroboration whatsoever.

 

I'm sending up the VA signal right now!

[notin]

Chavis for Bumgarner would be great for the Giants, idiocy by DD. Chavis has a better future, is under team control for a long time and therefore costs way less, and is less likely to get a serious injury. Oh, and he so far has been just what the doctor ordered for the Sox offense. Bumgarner will be just another arm who may or may not be able to handle lineups that include DH's instead of pitchers.

 

In 2013 that other GM gave up Iglesias to get Peavy, but already had two SS's, one of whom is now a mainstay on the Sox. The Sox currently have no backup for Chavis at 2B, and please don't tell me Nunez is--or Holt for that matter.

 

 

Chavis plus for Bumgarner/Panik is actually a reasonable trade.

 

Underwriting Bumgarner as “just another arm” while extolling the future of Chavis (who is only 6 years younger than Bumgarner) like his success is etched in stone is homerism at its strongest.

 

It’s a little early for deals, since the Giants will likely want any and all offers on the table before making a deal. But if the Sox want/need a starting pitcher of Bumgarner’s ability, Chavis - who could just as easily be written off as “another infielder with no position” were you to dismiss him as quickly as you did Bumgarner - is probably a reasonable asking price...

[FredLynn]

Chavis plus for Bumgarner/Panik is actually a reasonable trade.

 

Underwriting Bumgarner as “just another arm” while extolling the future of Chavis (who is only 6 years younger than Bumgarner) like his success is etched in stone is homerism at its strongest.

 

It’s a little early for deals, since the Giants will likely want any and all offers on the table before making a deal. But if the Sox want/need a starting pitcher of Bumgarner’s ability, Chavis - who could just as easily be written off as “another infielder with no position” were you to dismiss him as quickly as you did Bumgarner - is probably a reasonable asking price...

 

While we could use a guy like Bumgartner I think our main need is not SP-its the bullpen. We don't need to give up Chavis to get a bullpen arm. Kimbrel is still out there.

[mvp 78]

I'd trade Chavis for Bumgarner without question. Price, EO and ERod have huge health questions. Porcello has performance questions.

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Chavis for Bumgarner without question. Price, EO and ERod have huge health questions. Porcello has performance questions.

 

I would, too, although Bumgarner has many questions, too.

 

It would likely take more than Chavis to get Bum & Panik.

 

I'd try to get SF to take some salary back... maybe Chavis, Nunez, Thornburg and a prospect.

[notin]

I would, too, although Bumgarner has many questions, too.

 

It would likely take more than Chavis to get Bum & Panik.

 

I'd try to get SF to take some salary back... maybe Chavis, Nunez, Thornburg and a prospect.

 

 

The more salary you require them to take back, the greater the prospect haul you need to include. And in doing so, you reduce the likelihood of having a minimum wage contributing MLB player in the future the Sox might need to offset the larger contracts like Betts. Especially since there will be other teams in on Bumgarner, many of whom will not be asking the Giants to take their version of Nunez or Thornburg.

 

Better off just paying the penalty now and mitigating the risk of even the smaller contributors to the future...

[mvp 78]

I would, too, although Bumgarner has many questions, too.

 

It would likely take more than Chavis to get Bum & Panik.

 

I'd try to get SF to take some salary back... maybe Chavis, Nunez, Thornburg and a prospect.

 

Maybe get their starting 1b/3b who is OPSing 911 too?

[dgalehouse]

I vote an emphatic no on Chavis for Bumgarner . Both thumbs down.

[harmony]

I vote an emphatic no on Chavis for Bumgarner . Both thumbs down.

Deja vu:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1217263-mlb-trade-rumors-would-the-red-sox-deal-will-middlebrooks-for-cole-hamels

[Bellhorn04]

I vote an emphatic no on Chavis for Bumgarner . Both thumbs down.

 

Personally I'm going to wait till I see a more credible source on this rumor...

[mvp 78]

Personally I'm going to wait till I see a more credible source on this rumor...

 

It's not credible in the least.

[dgalehouse]

Deja vu:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1217263-mlb-trade-rumors-would-the-red-sox-deal-will-middlebrooks-for-cole-hamels

Chavis is not Middlebrooks . Harm , let's face it , the Mariners are not a good team . Many deficiencies. Last place in the A.L. West may be the destination. A big step back .

[notin]

While we could use a guy like Bumgartner I think our main need is not SP-its the bullpen. We don't need to give up Chavis to get a bullpen arm. Kimbrel is still out there.

 

 

Keuchel, too.

 

Bumgarner isn’t likely to be traded until someone takes Keuchel off the market.

 

But the appeal of Bumgarner over Keuchel is two fold.

 

1. While Keuchel has been good in the postseason, Bumgarner has been stellar, with both an NLCS MVP and a WS MVP on his resume.

 

2. Keuchel will require a significant long term commitment. The younger Bumgarner might not, unless he makes an extension a stipulation to waive his no trade provisions...

[notin]

Personally I'm going to wait till I see a more credible source on this rumor...

 

 

Right now it’s just message board fodder. Probably never close to anything real, and by the time SF is ready to trade Mad Bum, Chavis might even slump himself right off their radar.

 

But if DD pursues something like this, I would expect Chavis to be one of the first names a lot of teams mention. At least how it stands today...

[dgalehouse]

I'm still trying to figure out how we blew last night's game . And I watched every pitch . Two thoughts : 1 - Alex Cora needs to tell the analytic geeks ," I'm the manager of this nine . Mookie will hit leadoff. That is best for this team . " 2 - Those who say they are not concerned about the bullpen are deluding themselves.

[notin]

Chavis is not Middlebrooks . Harm , let's face it , the Mariners are not a good team . Many deficiencies. Last place in the A.L. West may be the destination. A big step back .

 

 

Chavis doesn’t have to be Middlebrooks to prove this point. If he actually does settle into mediocrity at some point, he won’t be the first prospect to do so after a blazing start.

 

What if he turns out to be another Eric Wedge?

[notin]

I'm still trying to figure out how we blew last night's game . And I watched every pitch . Two thoughts : 1 - Alex Cora needs to tell the analytic geeks ," I'm the manager of this nine . Mookie will hit leadoff. That is best for this team . " 2 - Those who say they are not concerned about the bullpen are deluding themselves.

 

 

1. So the analytical geeks get no credit for any past success because the Sox lost once?

 

2. I do agree the bullpen will need help at some point. But not much will happen there until the buyers and sellers establish themselves. Especially since DD is ignoring the waiver wire...

[dgalehouse]

Chavis doesn’t have to be Middlebrooks to prove this point. If he actually does settle into mediocrity at some point, he won’t be the first prospect to do so after a blazing start.

 

What if he turns out to be another Eric Wedge?

 

What if he turns out to be excellent? Some of the same people who wept bitter tears about trading prospects and " decimating " the farm , are now calling for trading Chavis for MadBum . The same people who cry about the farm system and brag about our current rotation now want to do this deal . The same people who are so worried about exceeding the luxury tax limit , now want to do this . Crazy . Crazy , I tell you .

[dgalehouse]

1. So the analytical geeks get no credit for any past success because the Sox lost once?

 

2. I do agree the bullpen will need help at some point. But not much will happen there until the buyers and sellers establish themselves. Especially since DD is ignoring the waiver wire...

 

Lost once ? No matter what you think of the geeks , the manager should be calling the shots . I have doubts that that is the case here right now .

[moonslav59]

I'm still trying to figure out how we blew last night's game . And I watched every pitch . Two thoughts : 1 - Alex Cora needs to tell the analytic geeks ," I'm the manager of this nine . Mookie will hit leadoff. That is best for this team . " 2 - Those who say they are not concerned about the bullpen are deluding themselves.

 

Cora IS an "analytic geek!"

[harmony]

Chavis is not Middlebrooks . Harm , let's face it , the Mariners are not a good team . Many deficiencies. Last place in the A.L. West may be the destination. A big step back .

Awkward point to change the subject.

 

With a beef-up farm system and key players under years of team control, the Seattle Mariners today have a brighter future than the M's did a year ago.

 

Despite "stepping back" this year with little anticipation of contending, the Mariners have exceeed expectations amid a stiff schedule that so far has included 25 of 45 games on the road and 26 games against 2018 postseason qualifiers*. Even so the Mariners have won as many games as the Red Sox, although the teams are headed in different directions this year.

 

Let's enjoy this season.

 

* as a point of reference, the Red Sox have played only 10 of 42 games against 2018 postseason qualifiers.

Edited May 15, 2019 by harmony

[S5Dewey]

 

* as a point of reference, the Red Sox have played only 10 of 42 games against 2018 postseason qualifiers.

 

That must mean more to some folks than others.

 

Red Sox chances of making the post-season: 78.7%

Seattle's chances of making the post-season: 2.6%

[harmony]

That must mean more to some folks than others.

 

Red Sox chances of making the post-season: 78.7%

Seattle's chances of making the post-season: 2.6%

Good to see the gap has narrowed since the start of the season when the Red Sox were at 90.3 percent the and Mariners at 2.3 percent.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-03-19&dateDelta=

[notin]

Lost once ? No matter what you think of the geeks , the manager should be calling the shots . I have doubts that that is the case here right now .

 

 

But your doubts are based on what? A prejudice against analytics? FWIW, Cora strongly embraces them and apparently by choice. And he does so because he believes they work, largely due to his experiences in Houston and Boston.

 

And really, managers using available analytics is something with a looong history in MLB. The only thing that changes are the analytics they use. That and we have several websites that tell the public data and information that we didn’t have access to when Earl Weaver was managing...

[notin]

What if he turns out to be excellent? Some of the same people who wept bitter tears about trading prospects and " decimating " the farm , are now calling for trading Chavis for MadBum . The same people who cry about the farm system and brag about our current rotation now want to do this deal . The same people who are so worried about exceeding the luxury tax limit , now want to do this . Crazy . Crazy , I tell you .

 

 

No one is “calling for” a Bumgarner/Chavis trade. No one. So far all we have is some people who say it’s a good idea or a fair trade. As far as anyone knows, neither side has even acknowledged there is anything to this rumor beyond it being just that, a rumor.

 

But I will reiterate my viewpoint, which is that if DD pursues an angle like this, it is a fair trade for both sides. If I were GM, I’d only pull the trigger after knowing the full scope of the deal and (assuming the full scope was acceptable) had some sort of insurance about Bumgarner’s health, since he’s only pitched 240 IP in the last two seasons combined.

 

Chavis might be excellent. He might be mediocre. And three years from now, he might fall into the abyss of Garin Cecchini/Steve Lomasney types that no one remembers. The odds are heavily stacked against him being excellent - so few are - but he has beaten them to date. Once the league gets a second look at him and how he adjusts will be a big factor in seeing what he really is...

[notin]

Cora IS an "analytic geek!"

 

 

They pretty much all are. Teams aren’t managed by guys playing hunches like James Gammons’ Lou Brown in “Major League”. They’re managed by guys analyzing the whole situation like Luke Edwards’ Billy Haywood in “Little Big League”, but with more data. (And much older than 12 or whatever he was.)

[Slasher9]

Lost once ? No matter what you think of the geeks , the manager should be calling the shots . I have doubts that that is the case here right now .

 

how did it work last year though?