A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

There’s no “leash” on DD. I’m sure Henry set a budget and DD is not going to surpass it without some sort of a special circumstance that DD would have to get approval for.

 

Where I’m confused this off-season is the Pearce and Eovaldi re-signings. Decent relievers who’d be high leverage guys in your current pen are signing for under $3mil. You could have added two of them if you let Pearce walk and at least made your pen respectable rather than the abject dumpster fire it is right now. Or, If the Sox went that route, Pearce would probably still be an FA and he’d be signing a MiLB deal with a decent guarantee.

 

For Eovaldi, he’s not the best arm on the market. He’s not better than Keuchel. Yet he signed for the AAV expected of Keuchel and DD put a 4th year out there before the market did anything. Now, DD gets his guy as he usually does, but he read the tea leaves wrong here. I think he could have gotten Eovaldi for a Lance Lynn deal $30/3 and have gotten Pearce for $2-$3 mil and he’d have $10 mil more to play with to fix the pen

 

You maybe right. But why not wait and see? DD obviously disagrees with you. Sox management seems almost giddy about the plethora of bullpen arms.

Edited February 19, 2019 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I still believe Larry was 100 percent responsible for us signing sandavol and Hanley.

 

But i believe it was Ben who drew the line in the sand on paying Lester. Henry is admitting he should not have listened to Ben.

 

I do not know who is holding the leash on desperate Dave, but someone is keeping him from signing kimbrel.

 

So you still haven't figured out who sets the budget, and you somehow missed every story about how much luxury tax it would cost to sign Kimbrel. Nice work.

[Bellhorn04]

You maybe right. But why not wait and see? DD obviously disagrees with you. Sox management seems almost giddy about the plethora of bullpen arms.

 

Wait and see - good one, Nick.

[notin]

Hard to believe any pitcher 30 or over should be given a 6 year contract. The question is where do you draw the line? Is it 4 years or 5 years for someone who has been great?

 

 

There can be no hard line. It has to be case by case. Some pitchers might be worth it. Others will appear very risky from the onset of free agency...

[Bellhorn04]

There can be no hard line. It has to be case by case. Some pitchers might be worth it. Others will appear very risky from the onset of free agency...

 

And it's a competitive market with limited goods, right? Nobody really wants to give out the long term big money deals, but if you don't, the next guy will, and you lose the player.

[moonslav59]

Let's not forget that Moreland has gotten hurt in both of his seasons here. He's played hurt for some of the other time here.

 

With a weak hitting catcher position and an iffy 2B going into 2019, I think DD felt we can't have a weak 1B offensively.

 

Pearce has begun to show he can hit righties pretty well, so he can be more than a platoon 1Bman, if needed.

 

OPS vs RHPs the last 3 seasons

 

Pearce/Moreland

2016: .795/ .700

2017: .767/ .784

2018: .828/ .780

 

I like the signing.

 

I think DD's plan is to let the pen shake itself out and go looking for a way less expensive RP'er mid season.

 

I guess one could argue it's just as easy to find a decent 1Bman mid season, if needed, and that makes sense, too.

 

Let's see how it works out.

 

Bottom line: I love the team we have right now.

 

[notin]

And it's a competitive market with limited goods, right? Nobody really wants to give out the long term big money deals, but if you don't, the next guy will, and you lose the player.

 

Well, the next guy might. But really, so far only Corbin and Eovaldi have gotten them. Keuchel meanwhile is still waiting for the proverbial “next guy.”...

[notin]

Let's not forget that Moreland has gotten hurt in both of his seasons here. He's played hurt for some of the other time here.

 

With a weak hitting catcher position and an iffy 2B going into 2019, I think DD felt we can't have a weak 1B offensively.

 

Pearce has begun to show he can hit righties pretty well, so he can be more than a platoon 1Bman, if needed.

 

OPS vs RHPs the last 3 seasons

 

Pearce/Moreland

2016: .795/ .700

2017: .767/ .784

2018: .828/ .780

 

I like the signing.

 

I think DD's plan is to let the pen shake itself out and go looking for a way less expensive RP'er mid season.

 

I guess one could argue it's just as easy to find a decent 1Bman mid season, if needed, and that makes sense, too.

 

Let's see how it works out.

 

Bottom line: I love the team we have right now.

 

 

I can admit I wanted DD to package some money (including Moreland) to Philadelphia for Carlos Santana.

 

But I guess the status quo on a 108 win team isn’t necessarily a bad thing...

[moonslav59]

I can admit I wanted DD to package some money (including Moreland) to Philadelphia for Carlos Santana.

 

But I guess the status quo on a 108 win team isn’t necessarily a bad thing...

 

The term "status quo" is a bit deceiving as we have many players back for a full season that were only here for part of 2018- not even counting Pedey.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the next guy might. But really, so far only Corbin and Eovaldi have gotten them. Keuchel meanwhile is still waiting for the proverbial “next guy.”...

 

Right. I'm thinking more in terms of a certified hot commodity like Sale - assuming he is sound physically.

[moonslav59]

Cora rested our players often last year, but several of our best players missed time last year due to injury, or they weren't on the team for much of the year. Of course, we will have injuries this season, but there is a lot of potential for more and/or better production from many of our players on the roster right now.

 

Games played in 2018:

 

3 Pedroia

50 Pearce

80 Vaz

121 Devers

136 Betts

136 Bogey

144 JBJ

148 Beni

 

12 Eovaldi

18 C Smith

20 Poyner

20 Wright

25 Thornburg

34 Brasier

43 Workman

 

23 GS ERod

27 GS Sale

30 GS Price

 

 

 

 

 

[Slasher9]

When we are talking about 6+ year extensions for 30+ year old pitchers, I shudder.

 

PREACH sister!

[moonslav59]

PREACH sister!

 

Then why are so many fans upset we let Lester get away?

[BillyWilliams]

IMO, we should offer him a 3 year extension, max. Raise the AAV if necessary.

 

Why bother?

[BillyWilliams]

I think you might have underestimated what Keuchel’s demands were. While probably lower now, he was reportedly looking for closer to a $22-25mill AAV. While he is better than Eovaldi, Eovaldi was the hot name at the time and getting better offers than the Lynn type deal already.

 

While signing Pearce and ignoring the pen seemed silly, I think Dombrowski is counting on his ability to build cheaper bullpens and has a long history of using inexperienced closers. I would not be surprised if he planned to avoid spending heavily on a closer from Day One. Whether or not you agree with this strategy, it is something he has done multiple times with multiple teams with mixed results, that obviously include some successes.

 

Not to mention, your thoughts at the time for Pearce was he would get multiple years at a much higher AAV. Maybe if the Sox had waited him out, he might have settled for a $2-3 mill deal. But even then, I don’t think DD was bringing in a new high salary closer. He seems to really like Brasier...

 

What teams made these offers?

[Slasher9]

Then why are so many fans upset we let Lester get away?

 

i think he was 29 when we low balled him?

i dont think we needed to give Lester a 6 year deal to stay in Boston. would he have signed for a solid offer at 5 years? yes.

[moonslav59]

i think he was 29 when we low balled him?

i dont think we needed to give Lester a 6 year deal to stay in Boston. would he have signed for a solid offer at 5 years? yes.

 

Lester was born in January of 1984. He turned 31 before his first FA year.

 

The word was the Sox were avoiding any longer term deals for a SP'er over 30.

 

They broke their rule with Price.

[Slasher9]

Lester was born in January of 1984. He turned 31 before his first FA year.

 

The word was the Sox were avoiding any longer term deals for a SP'er over 30.

 

They broke their rule with Price.

 

right. but when was the low ball offer made? also - do you consider a 5 year contract LTC?

alternately, our low ball offer was 4 years/$70MM. many of us believed it could have been done at 4 years $100MM. would 4 years be LTC?

i dont think we can compare the Lester debacle to a LTC issue. it was just a flat-out embarrassing offer.

[kenmeister]

Then why are so many fans upset we let Lester get away?

 

I felt that Lester had the physique to pitch well into his mid 30s, so I wasn't concerned about the length of the deal.

[moonslav59]

I wanted Lester back.

 

I even wish we bid $1 more than the Cubs, after we traded him.

 

I was just pointing out the context.

 

As it turned out, Porcello has been pretty close to the dollar per performance as Lester, and Porcello's deal ends after 2019, while Lester has his advanced age years left.

[Bellhorn04]

What teams made these offers?

 

MLBTR had a lot of teams in on Eovaldi. Presumably Dombrowski had to beat more than a 3/30 offer.

[BillyWilliams]

MLBTR had a lot of teams in on Eovaldi. Presumably Dombrowski had to beat more than a 3/30 offer.

 

So just rumors and nothing confirmed?

[Bellhorn04]

Lester was born in January of 1984. He turned 31 before his first FA year.

 

The word was the Sox were avoiding any longer term deals for a SP'er over 30.

 

They broke their rule with Price.

 

I think it was John Henry that made those comments, and then he quickly changed his mind, yes. So what though? He's the owner and he's allowed to make the odd error in judgment.

 

I'm just kind of tired of hearing that particular story, I guess. It wasn't really some sort of carved-in-stone public pronouncement.

[Bellhorn04]

So just rumors and nothing confirmed?

 

Obviously. As you know that's the way it often works with this stuff.

[notin]

What teams made these offers?

 

Without digging too deep, Philadelphia was in on him. I think it’s a safe bet Dombrowski didn’t just throw those numbers out there without there being competitive offers. Otherwise he would have just extended him before he filed for free agency..,

[BillyWilliams]

Without digging too deep, Philadelphia was in on him. I think it’s a safe bet Dombrowski didn’t just throw those numbers out there without there being competitive offers. Otherwise he would have just extended him before he filed for free agency..,

 

Maybe he tried but nate wanted to see what was out there.........

[notin]

Maybe he tried but nate wanted to see what was out there.........

 

 

Probably exactly what happened. And it looks like Nate got offers close but not quite as good as 4 years $68mill...

[BillyWilliams]

Probably exactly what happened. And it looks like Nate got offers close but not quite as good as 4 years $68mill...

 

We'll never know.

 

But had dd waited it looks like the prices for SP's would have dropped. Hindsight is 20/20.

[notin]

We'll never know.

 

But had dd waited it looks like the prices for SP's would have dropped. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

A simple search through the MLBTR archives lists the Red Sox, Phillies, Astros, Padres, Brewers, Braves, Giants, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels as all being interested in Eovaldi, which represents one third of MLB. And those are just the teams whose interest was public.

 

Certainly all didn’t make offers, but that’s too much interest to think a discount could be had.

[Bellhorn04]

Lester was born in January of 1984. He turned 31 before his first FA year.

 

The word was the Sox were avoiding any longer term deals for a SP'er over 30.

 

They broke their rule with Price.

 

Another point about this so-called 'rule' is that they actually 'broke it' right away with Lester when they went back and offered him 6/135.