A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[mvp 78]

LOL, it's just as credible as what anyone in here posts.......

 

I've never said I wasn't a nobody.

[mvp 78]

Anyone's opinion is legitimate whether we agree with it or not.

 

IMO, this just isn't true at all.

[BillyWilliams]

IMO, this just isn't true at all.

 

Well, that's your opinion.

[notin]

Well, that's your opinion.

 

 

And by your own argument, it’s legitimate...

[Slasher9]

Don't even ask about the Daily Telegraph claim... LOL.

 

What a nobody.

 

I think we should raise $75 so that moon can be an IBWAA member.

i'll kick in some cash for that!

[BillyWilliams]

And by your own argument, it’s legitimate...

 

Correct, that doesn't mean it's right or that I agree with it though.

[BillyWilliams]

But back to baseball.

 

What do you guys think about pedroia saying if he had a do over he wouldn't opt for the surgery?

[S5Dewey]

Don't even ask about the Daily Telegraph claim... LOL.

 

What a nobody.

 

I think we should raise $75 so that moon can be an IBWAA member.

 

I'm in!

[cp176]

Jack oh Jack where are you. Are these recent postings better than the recurring analytics discussion or any of the other over talked about topics. It is what goes on.

[dgalehouse]

The level of discourse here has deteriorated just a little bit. Need to make a sincere effort to get things back on track towards our usual impeccable standards .

[BillyWilliams]

the level of discourse here has deteriorated just a little bit. Need to make a sincere effort to get things back on track towards our usual impeccable standards .

 

lol

[kenmeister]

Maybe an ace could be...

 

ACE: 180+ IP & 3.50 ERA (Last year, 20 met this criteria)

 

#2: 160+ IP & 4.00 ERA (Last year 23 met this but not ace criteria)

 

#3: 140+ IP & 4.50 ERA (Last year 26 met this criteria but not the higher ones) 88 pitchers had 140+ IP

 

#4: 120+ IP & 4.80 ERA (Last year 18 pitchers met this criteria) 106 pitchers has 120+ IP

 

#5: 100+ IP & 5.00 ERA (Last year 22 pitcher met this criteria) 112 out of 128 pitchers met one of these criteria.

 

To get to a sample size of 150 (30 teams x 5 starters, we have to drop the IP to about 80 IP (145 last year). That shows just how important IP'd are.

 

Only 32 pitchers had 180+ IP last year (13 with 200+).

 

If you go strictly by groups of 30 to determine #1, 2, 3 , and 5's, this would be the ERA cut-offs at 70+ IP (155 pitchers) in 2018:

 

1's: 1.70-3.31

2's: 3.31-3.77

3's: 3.78-4.21

4's: 4.25-4.70

5's: 4.71-5.77

 

 

I love how much work you put into your posts here. Those thresholds look great. Of course thirty years ago it was different, but times have changed and the 200 IP pitcher is more scarce.

 

And by the way, our #4 and #5 pitchers should be far, far better than league average.

[mvp 78]

But back to baseball.

 

What do you guys think about pedroia saying if he had a do over he wouldn't opt for the surgery?

 

He probably shouldn't have had the surgery then. Wonder who pushed for it?

[harmony]

I love how much work you put into your posts here. Those thresholds look great. Of course thirty years ago it was different, but times have changed and the 200 IP pitcher is more scarce.

 

And by the way, our #4 and #5 pitchers should be far, far better than league average.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

[mvp 78]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

The Orioles rotation is a thing of beauty.

[BillyWilliams]

He probably shouldn't have had the surgery then. Wonder who pushed for it?

 

I would imagine they consult with a few different doctors for their opinions.

[dgalehouse]

Change of pace : Saw Mookie the other night on a TV show called " Celebrity Bowling Invitational." Don't know when it was taped . The idea is that they pair a celebrity with a professional bowler . Mookie was teamed with a pro named Tommy Jones . They won and took home the trophies by defeating seven other teams of celebrities & pro bowlers . Mookie continues to be on quite a roll . No pun intended .

[mvp 78]

I would imagine they consult with a few different doctors for their opinions.

 

Well, I figured he saw several doctors. I just wonder if either the Sox or Pedey were bigger proponents of the surgery. If the Sox wanted the surgery and Pedroia regrets it, it could cause issues later on.

[Slasher9]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

 

wait a second. WTF!? they have the Red Sox ahead of the Yankees??? that can't be right. yankees are better than the Red Sox!!! that's what jacksonianmarch tells me!

[BillyWilliams]

Well, I figured he saw several doctors. I just wonder if either the Sox or Pedey were bigger proponents of the surgery. If the Sox wanted the surgery and Pedroia regrets it, it could cause issues later on.

 

well, ultimately the decision was his

[BillyWilliams]

wait a second. WTF!? they have the Red Sox ahead of the Yankees??? that can't be right. yankees are better than the Red Sox!!! that's what jacksonianmarch tells me!

 

Actually what that link shows is pretty much what jacksonian march has been saying. The difference is really at the top with sale over Sevy, the next three slots favor the Yanks.

[Slasher9]

Actually what that link shows is pretty much what jacksonian march has been saying. The difference is really at the top with sale over Sevy, the next three slots favor the Yanks.

 

we are looking at a different link then...

3.1

2.6 = 2.6

2.7 ~ 2.8

1.9 > 1.3

 

but yeah...lets call paxton the difference maker! welcome to the AL East mr paxton.

hope you dont wilt under the bright lights of the big bad east like so many West coast pretenders have in the past.

too bad he wasnt on the team last year. the 8 gb might have gone all the way down to 4 gb..... maybe even made the ALDS a tiny bit exciting?

[BillyWilliams]

we are looking at a different link then...

3.1

2.6 = 2.6

2.7 ~ 2.8

1.9 > 1.3

 

but yeah...lets call paxton the difference maker! welcome to the AL East mr paxton.

hope you dont wilt under the bright lights of the big bad east like so many West coast pretenders have in the past.

too bad he wasnt on the team last year. the 8 gb might have gone all the way down to 4 gb..... maybe even made the ALDS a tiny bit exciting?

 

I said the next three slots. The Yanks 3 combine for 9.4 while the sox 3 combine for 8.4

[moonslav59]

I love how much work you put into your posts here. Those thresholds look great. Of course thirty years ago it was different, but times have changed and the 200 IP pitcher is more scarce.

 

And by the way, our #4 and #5 pitchers should be far, far better than league average.

 

If you want to win, yes.

 

This is the current range:

1's: 1.70-3.31

2's: 3.31-3.77

3's: 3.78-4.21

4's: 4.25-4.70

5's: 4.71-5.77

 

This is probably what you need to have a good chance at a ring:

1: 2.50-3.00

2: 3.00- 3.50

3: 3.40-3.90

4: 3.70-4.10

5: 4.00-4.50

 

[moonslav59]

We will have injuries.

 

We will likely have some decline from a player or two (or more). Then, there's losing Kimbrel, which has been beaten to death several times over.

 

Here is where we might see some gains:

 

Maybe...

 

100-150 more PAs from Devers (plus improved defense)

Better production from Devers over all his 2019 PAs

 

150-250 more PAs from Pearce

 

70-90 more PAs from Betts and Bogey

 

Better health from Nunez & Vazquez

Vaz & Leon hitting their career norms (close to 100 pts better than 2018)

 

Pedey going from 13 PAs to 113, 213, 313 or 413 PAs of decent production.

 

JBJ stretching his 4 months of 2018 consistent offense to 6 months in 2019.

 

10-20 more starts from Eovaldi

 

6-8 more starts from ERod

 

4-6 more starts from Sale

 

3 more starts from Price

 

(Total, we could see 30-33 more starts from these guys.)

[Larry Cook]

Do you get the feeling kimbrel wants to come back and his agent is trying to squeeze a few more dollars out of desperate Dave?

[Larry Cook]

Do you get the feeling kimbrel wants to come back and his agent is trying to squeeze a few more dollars and years out of desperate Dave?

[moonslav59]

Do you get the feeling kimbrel wants to come back and his agent is trying to squeeze a few more dollars and years out of desperate Dave?

 

Not at all.

 

I do think he might be regretting not taking the QO.

[Kimmi]

Interpretation: " Sure. Show me the money".

 

True, but I also think that with the way things have gone in free agency the past 2 seasons, not to mention the uncertainty of the next CBA, these young guys are going to be more eager to signing extensions before they reach FA.

[Kimmi]

Quality starts should be changed to something like this:

 

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6.1+ IP 3 runs or less

8+ IP 4 runs or less

 

If letting up 3 runs in 6 IP- a 4.50 ERA, why isn't 4 runs in 8 IP a quality start? At least that should be added.

 

I get the 5 IP puts a strain on your pen, but 2 runs in 5 IP is an ERA of 3.60, which is so much better than 4.50 that it makes up for the 1 IP less.

 

 

While I think Quality Starts gives a good indication that the pitcher pitched well enough to give his team a chance to win, it is a little whack in its criteria. Your post points this out very well.

 

Game Scores are a good and simple alternative to Quality Starts.