A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Our season did start out awesome:

 

19-2

 

Then...

 

11-12

 

15-5

 

6-7

 

21-5

 

4-3

 

13-3

 

2-6

 

13-5

 

5-7

 

Then, the playoffs

 

Put our two best stretches together and we were 40-7 (85%)!

 

The amazing thing is that even if you take that away, we went 68-47 in the other games. That's still better than a 59% winning percentage... enough to win any other MLB division, except Houston's.

 

In our worst 5, cherry-picked stretches, we went 28-35. That's a .444 winning percentage, which was better than 8 MLB teams last year.

 

Without those 5 stretches we were 80-19 -- an 81% winning rate!

Edited February 11, 2019 by moonslav59

[BillyWilliams]

Put our two best stretches together and we were 40-7 (85%)!

 

The amazing thing is that even if you take that away, we went 68-47 in the other games. That's still better than a 59% winning percentage... enough to win any other MLB division, except Houston's.

 

In our worst 5, cherry-picked stretches, we went 28-35. That's a .444 winning percentage, which was better than 8 MLB teams last year.

 

Without those 5 stretches we were 80-19 -- an 81% winning rate!

 

And without the bullet Lincoln had a great night at the theatre..........

[BillyWilliams]

2019 MLB projections are split on these teams

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If baseball carries any lesson from year to year, it's that few of us really know anything about what's going to happen in October before the first pitch is thrown in March. But with seven more weeks to go before Opening Day, predictions are all baseball fans have -- and

[moonslav59]

And without the bullet Lincoln had a great night at the theatre..........

 

I also showed where the Sox would be, if you took away their two best stretches.

[notin]

And without the bullet Lincoln had a great night at the theatre..........

 

 

Actually “Our American Cousin” was panned by numerous critics, with one going so far as to say “Lincoln was the luckiest guy at the show” that night.

 

 

 

 

Ok, maybe not....

[kenmeister]

2019 MLB projections are split on these teams

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If baseball carries any lesson from year to year, it's that few of us really know anything about what's going to happen in October before the first pitch is thrown in March. But with seven more weeks to go before Opening Day, predictions are all baseball fans have -- and

 

Thanks; I went from that link to this one:

404 Not Found: /news/red-sox-opening-day-roster-prediction/c-303762786. | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The projected roster from the article is:

 

CATCHERS

Christian Vazquez

Blake Swihart

 

INFIELDERS

Mitch Moreland

Steve Pearce

Dustin Pedroia

Xander Bogaerts

Rafael Devers

 

OUTFIELDERS

Andrew Benintendi

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Mookie Betts

J.D. Martinez

 

UTILITY PLAYERS

Brock Holt

Eduardo Nunez

 

STARTING PITCHERS

Chris Sale

David Price

Rick Porcello

Nathan Eovaldi

Eduardo Rodriguez

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

Matt Barnes

Ryan Brasier

Steven Wright

Heath Hembree

Tyler Thornburg

Brian Johnson

Colton Brewer

 

 

I hadn't even heard of Colton Brewer before I read the article.

[harmony]

Our season begins March 28th with a 4 game road trip to Seattle (no off days until after game 11).

 

With no injuries, I'm assuming we start with Sale, Price, Porcello & Eovaldi

 

4 at Oakland: ERod, (6 man rotation to start the year?), Wright or Johnson, Sale & Price

 

3 at Arizona: Porcello, Eovaldi & ERod

 

Day off/ travel to BOS

 

4/9 TOR

Day off

4/11 TOR

4 vs BAL

 

then, at the Yanks for 2

Last year the World Series champion Red Sox went 3-4 at Seattle and Oakland.

 

According to Roster Resource's Mariner site, this year in Seattle the Red Sox will face Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, Marco Gonzales and Felix Hernandez:

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

 

... avoiding feared:) Seattle lefthander Wade LeBlanc:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201806160.shtml

 

However, according to Roster Resource's Red Sox site, this year in Seattle the Sox will face Leake, Gonzales, Hernandez and LeBlanc:

 

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-boston-red-sox/

[moonslav59]

Thanks; I went from that link to this one:

404 Not Found: /news/red-sox-opening-day-roster-prediction/c-303762786. | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

The projected roster from the article is:

 

CATCHERS

Christian Vazquez

Blake Swihart

 

INFIELDERS

Mitch Moreland

Steve Pearce

Dustin Pedroia

Xander Bogaerts

Rafael Devers

 

OUTFIELDERS

Andrew Benintendi

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Mookie Betts

J.D. Martinez

 

UTILITY PLAYERS

Brock Holt

Eduardo Nunez

 

STARTING PITCHERS

Chris Sale

David Price

Rick Porcello

Nathan Eovaldi

Eduardo Rodriguez

 

RELIEF PITCHERS

Matt Barnes

Ryan Brasier

Steven Wright

Heath Hembree

Tyler Thornburg

Brian Johnson

Colton Brewer

 

 

I hadn't even heard of Colton Brewer before I read the article.

 

That would mean out-of-options Workman is traded, DL's or DFA'd, so Brewer could make the roster. I doubt they do that. Wright might start on the DL.

 

I might add Velazquez before Brewer, especially since we start the season with 11 straight games with no days off. My guess is, we may start with a 6 man rotation (Johnson?), so Velazquez may be needed as our long man.

 

The rest has no surprises, except for Swihart over Leon (not happening, IMO).

 

If Pedey starts on the DL, it would be Swihart (no options) vs Lin as the 25th man.

[oldtimer]

That would mean out-of-options Workman is traded, DL's or DFA'd, so Brewer could make the roster. I doubt they do that. Wright might start on the DL.

 

I might add Velazquez before Brewer, especially since we start the season with 11 straight games with no days off. My guess is, we may start with a 6 man rotation (Johnson?), so Velazquez may be needed as our long man.

 

The rest has no surprises, except for Swihart over Leon (not happening, IMO).

 

If Pedey starts on the DL, it would be Swihart (no options) vs Lin as the 25th man.

 

You have been pushing Leon over Swihart for a long time whereas the projected lineup disagrees with you. What you say isn't going to happen is actually quite likely.

[Jack Flap]

You have been pushing Leon over Swihart for a long time whereas the projected lineup disagrees with you. What you say isn't going to happen is actually quite likely.

 

Worth noting that the projected lineup at the link is just one writer's opinion...Peter Abraham's first projection, for comparison's sake, has the Sox trading Swihart and keeping Leon, and puts Workman and Velazquez in the bullpen. At this point, their guesses are probably as good as mine and yours.

[notin]

That would mean out-of-options Workman is traded, DL's or DFA'd, so Brewer could make the roster. I doubt they do that. Wright might start on the DL.

 

 

 

What is this “DL” you speak of?

[moonslav59]

You have been pushing Leon over Swihart for a long time whereas the projected lineup disagrees with you. What you say isn't going to happen is actually quite likely.

 

I disagree. The article printed is one person's opinion.

 

If the Sox really liked Swihart over Leon, why didn't Swihart catch even close to the amount Leon did last year?

 

Chris Sale & David Price both do exceptionally better with Leon. I'll be surprised if they choose Swihart over Leon. The only way I see that happening, is if we trade Leon for a decent RP'er (doubtful) that would help us more than losing Leon would hurt us.

 

We may keep all 3 catchers, especially if Pedey or someone else begins the season on the DL (likely).

 

Plus, I did say "not happening, in my opinion", so I'm not trying to come off as the final word authority.

 

To me, it would be a huge mistake to keep Swihart over Leon, unless management thinks Swihart has grown a lot over the last year and/or maybe Leon has declined a lot. I didn't see signs of that last year, except for Leon struggling when forced to catch nearly FT while Vaz was hurt.

 

[moonslav59]

What is this “DL” you speak of?

 

Disabled List (or phantom DL).

[notin]

You have been pushing Leon over Swihart for a long time whereas the projected lineup disagrees with you. What you say isn't going to happen is actually quite likely.

 

 

While not a popular opinion, I think Leon is the one catcher they should keep.

 

While I’m probably wrong here, I think it should be Swihart vs Vazquez or the starting job. If Swihart wins, trade Vazquez. If Vazquez wins, try to trade Swihart or simply DFA him late enough in Spring Training that most teams will largely have their rosters set and won’t claim him...

[notin]

Disabled List (or phantom DL).

 

 

The Diabled List??!? That’s so 2018.

 

Got to get with the times.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25947020/major-league-baseball-rename-disabled-list-injured-list%3fplatform=amp

[moonslav59]

While not a popular opinion, I think Leon is the one catcher they should keep.

 

While I’m probably wrong here, I think it should be Swihart vs Vazquez or the starting job. If Swihart wins, trade Vazquez. If Vazquez wins, try to trade Swihart or simply DFA him late enough in Spring Training that most teams will largely have their rosters set and won’t claim him...

 

The differential between Leon and Vaz or Swihart with Sale and Price is enormous.

 

I'm with you. Leon is the last catcher I trade or DFA.

 

I think Vaz has more stamina, and he does well with Porcello, so I'd choose him over Swihart, but trading Vaz might free up enough money to get a better RP'er.

 

I knida think keeping all 3 makes sense, unless Pedey looks super healthy.

[moonslav59]

The Diabled List??!? That’s so 2018.

 

Got to get with the times.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25947020/major-league-baseball-rename-disabled-list-injured-list%3fplatform=amp

 

The haven't made this official, have they?

[notin]

The haven't made this official, have they?

 

I believe so.

 

And the biggest benefit is we get to call the phantom injured list by the friendly moniker of “Phil”...

[moonslav59]

I believe so.

 

And the biggest benefit is we get to call the phantom injured list by the friendly moniker of “Phil”...

 

Is it still 10 days?

[Hitch]

Our season begins March 28th with a 4 game road trip to Seattle (no off days until after game 11).

 

With no injuries, I'm assuming we start with Sale, Price, Porcello & Eovaldi

 

4 at Oakland: ERod, (6 man rotation to start the year?), Wright or Johnson, Sale & Price

 

3 at Arizona: Porcello, Eovaldi & ERod

 

Day off/ travel to BOS

 

4/9 TOR

Day off

4/11 TOR

4 vs BAL

 

then, at the Yanks for 2

 

I love that start. Better for the players to remain in the warmer climbs and get a big road trip out of the way at the least taxing time of the season. Perfect.

[moonslav59]

While not a popular opinion, I think Leon is the one catcher they should keep.

 

While I’m probably wrong here, I think it should be Swihart vs Vazquez or the starting job. If Swihart wins, trade Vazquez. If Vazquez wins, try to trade Swihart or simply DFA him late enough in Spring Training that most teams will largely have their rosters set and won’t claim him...

 

I think someone would claim him. There are so many borderline back-up catchers out there, I think Swihart's upside and ability to play other positions might be enough for someone to claim him.

[moonslav59]

I love that start. Better for the players to remain in the warmer climbs and get a big road trip out of the way at the least taxing time of the season. Perfect.

 

I do, too.

 

11 games in a row kind a sucks, but if we start the year with Johnson as the 6th starter, we'd only use him once in the first 3 weeks of the season.

[Slasher9]

2019 MLB projections are split on these teams

WWW.MLB.COM

---

If baseball carries any lesson from year to year, it's that few of us really know anything about what's going to happen in October before the first pitch is thrown in March. But with seven more weeks to go before Opening Day, predictions are all baseball fans have -- and

 

And without the bullet Lincoln had a great night at the theatre..........

 

you can keep posting articles that say how many games the yankees will finish in front of the Red Sox in 2019...in the meantime i guess we will just have to take solace that we will raise a banner at this years home opener......

sigh.

[moonslav59]

And without the bullet Lincoln had a great night at the theatre..........

 

you can keep posting articles that say how many games the yankees will finish in front of the Red Sox in 2019...in the meantime i guess we will just have to take solace that we will raise a banner at this years home opener......

sigh.

 

The article does say....

 

Combine those two factors with what might be baseball's best defensive outfield, and FanGraphs believes the Red Sox will have the game's best run differential by a good margin.

 

So, not everything is bad.

[Kimmi]

Very true, and some players take longer to get over an issue that held them back, so their curve looks out of whack. Others seem to really respond to the experience aspect of the game. Dewey Evans comes to mind. Others, who maybe relied more on their physicality seem to drop quickly. Jim Rice comes to mind, although his eye sight troubles may have been the real reason.

 

I'm sure GMs are wise to all this, or are getting there quickly.

 

 

Every team now employs analysts who take all of this into account and advise the owners and the GMs on the projected aging curve of any player the team is interested in signing. Hopefully, the GMs are listening.

[Kimmi]

The article does say....

 

Combine those two factors with what might be baseball's best defensive outfield, and FanGraphs believes the Red Sox will have the game's best run differential by a good margin.

 

So, not everything is bad.

 

Though they should be taken with a grain of salt, I love to look at the computerized projections every year.

 

For me, it's a good gauge of the job the GM has done.

[harmony]

I think someone would claim him. There are so many borderline back-up catchers out there, I think Swihart's upside and ability to play other positions might be enough for someone to claim him.

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, ranks Blake Swihart 203rd in its 2019 WAR projections for catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Steamer does not capture pitch-framing and game-calling skills but those measures might not help Swihart.

[S5Dewey]

The Diabled List??!? That’s so 2018.

 

Got to get with the times.

 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25947020/major-league-baseball-rename-disabled-list-injured-list%3fplatform=amp

 

Eccch. Myself, I like the NFL's "PUP List".

[Jack Flap]

Everyone will still call it the DL out of habit for at least a year anyway.

[moonslav59]

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, ranks Blake Swihart 203rd in its 2019 WAR projections for catchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd

 

Steamer does not capture pitch-framing and game-calling skills but those measures might not help Swihart.

 

We'll see.