A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Stop worrying about that stuff. If JH's and DD's decision is to sign Kimbrel, so be it.

 

I'm not worried about it, but I'm going off certain assumptions that may or may not turn out to be wrong.

 

It's more wonder than worry.

 

(Or, we sign Kimbrel then trade him when we want to reset.)

[moonslav59]

Most IP since 2016:

 

618 Porcello

599 Sale

 

518 Happ

481 CC Sab

481 Price

456 Severino

 

417 Paxton

410 Gray

374 ERod

 

235 Eovaldi

234 Wright

 

 

[moonslav59]

How does it keep you favorites? You lose Kelly and Kimbrel and bring in a guy who was awful last year with the hopes he finds it in the pressure cooker of Boston? The Yanks got better already. They are probably getting even better before the season. And you are getting worse

 

How is having Eovaldi, Pearce and maybe Sale & Pedey for a whole season not part of your equation?

 

To me, those 4 alone more than make up for losing CK & JK, and DD is not done yet.

 

Yes, Allen was not good last year, but I thought you looked at 3 year records...I guess just when it suits you.

 

DD may trade for someone better than Allen or Brach. He may get Allen and trade for someone

 

You easily assume the first 4 month Sev will be the whole 2019 Sev. You assume Paxton will pitch more than 165 IP for the first time in his life. You assume Happ and CC will continue to defy normal age progression. You assume Tanaka will be the old Tanaka. I guess that all could happen. I guess most could happen.

 

Would it be surprising, if most does not happen?

 

Look, I know we have questions. Just about all our starters have big what ifs, too.

 

[moonslav59]

I am not averse to keeping Swihart, but I am if Cora is not going to play him very much. Play him about as much as Holt and Nunez play, or let him go.

 

If Pedey is back for any meaningful playing time, Holt & Nunez will be squeezed, Neither can catch.

[moonslav59]

Our 1b position didn't solidify until August.

 

Meaning they did okay for 2 months.

 

Pearce vs LHPs and Moreland vs RHPs have long records of plus play and even times of excellence.

 

To project better numbers from Voit & Byrd than Pearce & Moreland is about as rosy colored glasses as one can get.

[harmony]

To project better numbers from Voit & Byrd than Pearce & Moreland is about as rosy colored glasses as one can get.

For what it's worth, Steamer projects that Luke Voit and Greg Bird will combine for 1.9 fWAR in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=9&lg=all&players=0

 

… while Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland combine for 1.7 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

Edited January 9, 2019 by harmony

[cp176]

You cannot project Eovaldi. He very well may end up with an injury as he is prone to do.

 

Projecting ERod to be healthy but Paxton not to be is absolutely hilarious.

 

Happ outpitched Price. He has outpitched Price 3 years running. Price has already seen a drop in his fastball velocity and it clearly affected his performance. But yes, let's look at Happ's age and just call that a win for Price.

 

Steven Wright just had another surgery. He had micro fracture before that. Expecting him to do anything in 2019 is a puppy dog and rainbows fantasy

 

Johnson and Velasquez are replacement level players.

 

As I said earlier, you cannot project Eovaldi's year anymore than anyone else. It is all a guess and you know it. Red Sox fans hopefully see what he might do in a very positive light. You say he might have an injury (all of them might), I say he could also wind up being a Cy Young candidate (vey few of them can). You cannot tell.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our 1b position didn't solidify until August.

 

Meaning they did okay for 2 months.

 

Pearce vs LHPs and Moreland vs RHPs have long records of plus play and even times of excellence.

 

To project better numbers from Voit & Byrd than Pearce & Moreland is about as rosy colored glasses as one can get.

 

Moreland isn’t some RHP masher. His platoon splits are better, but last year he was a below average hitter against everyone for his position. Pearce is a hit or miss guy who seems to alternate good and bad seasons at an advanced age. He was the balls last year. Can you project that he will be the same this year? Based on his history, you cannot.

 

I predict the Yanks 1b spit will outhit the Sox for a few reasons. First, if Bird is healthy, he’s the superior player of all 4 of the options (Moreland, Voit, Pearce, Moreland). Second, Voit wasn’t some shot in the dark, he was targeted due to his exit velocities. He was 11th in all of baseball on exit velocity. Yes, his BABIP was high, but he’s a 30HR hitter waiting to happen and if he shows his minor league contact skills, he should be able to hit .250-.270 which will be really good for us.

 

Also, if we get Manny, Andujar will be our 1b and he’s a better hitter than anything you have there

[BillyWilliams]

For what it's worth, Steamer projects that Luke Voit and Greg Bird will combined for 1.9 fWAR in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=9&lg=all&players=0

 

… while Steve Pearce and Mitch Moreland combine for 1.7 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0

 

Doh!!

 

LMAO

[BillyWilliams]

Our 1b position didn't solidify until August.

 

Meaning they did okay for 2 months.

 

Pearce vs LHPs and Moreland vs RHPs have long records of plus play and even times of excellence.

 

To project better numbers from Voit & Byrd than Pearce & Moreland is about as rosy colored glasses as one can get.

 

I guess Steamers has rosy colored glasses?!

[Bellhorn04]

Doh!!

 

LMAO

 

So the projections are basically dead even.

[Bellhorn04]

I predict the Yanks 1b spit will outhit the Sox for a few reasons. First, if Bird is healthy, he’s the superior player of all 4 of the options (Moreland, Voit, Pearce, Moreland).

 

Bird has only played 176 games and has only mustered a .736 OPS despite being a lefty supposed power hitter playing in the Stadium.

 

Here is where YOUR rose-colored specs really show.

[BillyWilliams]

So the projections are basically dead even.

 

No, the projections predict that the Yanks duo will slightly outperform the sox tandem.

 

The reason I laughed was because of moon's post.........

[moonslav59]

No, the projections predict that the Yanks duo will slightly outperform the sox tandem.

 

The reason I laughed was because of moon's post.........

 

He who laughs last....

 

The only way the Yanks end up with a better 1B WAR this year is if they trade for another one or move Andujar there.

 

Bank on it!

[BillyWilliams]

He who laughs last....

 

The only way the Yanks end up with a better 1B WAR this year is if they trade for another one or move Andujar there.

 

Bank on it!

 

I'm not saying they will or they won't.

 

Just had to laugh at your comment and then harmony posted Steamers' prediction.

[harmony]

The debate of two fans with hometown biases.

[notin]

Bird has only played 176 games and has only mustered a .736 OPS despite being a lefty supposed power hitter playing in the Stadium.

 

Here is where YOUR rose-colored specs really show.

 

And I’m 176 games, he’s been worth 0.8 fWAR. His 311 plate appearances last year is the most he’s had in a season since 2015.

 

He hasn’t been very good, but on the bright side he doesn’t play all that much...

[moonslav59]

Doh!!

 

LMAO

 

So, Steamer is some kind of God?

 

Pick your ass off the floor and get a grip. Go ahead and believe Greg Bird and Luke Voit will do well next year. Maybe, you'll get lucky.

 

Then, you can laugh.

 

Yes, Peatce has been up and down, but his downs have been equal or better than Bird & Voit.

 

OPS

Pearce

.890 2018

.757 2017

.867 2016

.711 2015

.930 2014

(.829 from 2014 to 2018)

 

Moreland

.758 2018

.769 2017

.720 2016

.812 2015

(.765 from 2015-2018)

 

Greg Bird

.736 from 2015-2018 (659 PA)

.898 AAA over 3 seasons

.881 minors over 7 seasons

 

Luke Voit

.922 from 2017-2018 (just 285 PAs)

.930 in AAA (610 PAs over 2 seasons)

.829 in minors over 6 seasons

 

2016-2018 Splits

v RHPs

.873 Voit (199 PAs- the smallest sample size of the 4)

.789 Pearce (587)

.755 Moreland (1248)

.646 G Bird (380)

 

v LHPs

1.028 Voit (just 86 PAs)

.908 Pearce (314)

.837 Bird (101)

.725 Moreland (290)

 

Maybe Voit continues these numbers, and you have the last laugh. Maybe Bird starts hitting like he did in the minors. I'm going with the vets that have shown they can do well in their splits and should combine for a pretty nice overall OPS.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Did you notice a trend with Pearce? Great-Terrible-Great-Terrible-Great. I wonder what's coming up?

[a700hitter]

Did you notice a trend with Pearce? Great-Terrible-Great-Terrible-Great. I wonder what's coming up?

You can hope, but Pearce is a solid platoon type guy. He compliments Moreland very well. Neither should be overused, but the whole is greater than the sum of their parts.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying they will or they won't.

 

Just had to laugh at your comment and then harmony posted Steamers' prediction.

 

Like Steamer proves something?

[BillyWilliams]

So, Steamer is some kind of God?

 

Pick your ass off the floor and get a grip. Go ahead and believe Greg Bird and Luke Voit will do well next year. Maybe, you'll get lucky.

 

Then, you can laugh.

 

Yes, Peatce has been up and down, but his downs have been equal or better than Bird & Voit.

 

OPS

Pearce

.890 2018

.757 2017

.867 2016

.711 2015

.930 2014

(.829 from 2014 to 2018)

 

Moreland

.758 2018

.769 2017

.720 2016

.812 2015

(.765 from 2015-2018)

 

Greg Bird

.736 from 2015-2018 (659 PA)

.898 AAA over 3 seasons

.881 minors over 7 seasons

 

Luke Voit

.922 from 2017-2018 (just 285 PAs)

.930 in AAA (610 PAs over 2 seasons)

.829 in minors over 6 seasons

 

2016-2018 Splits

v RHPs

.873 Voit (199 PAs- the smallest sample size of the 4)

.789 Pearce (587)

.755 Moreland (1248)

.646 G Bird (380)

 

v LHPs

1.028 Voit (just 86 PAs)

.908 Pearce (314)

.837 Bird (101)

.725 Moreland (290)

 

Maybe Voit continues these numbers, and you have the last laugh. Maybe Bird starts hitting like he did in the minors. I'm going with the vets that have shown they can do well in their splits and should combine for a pretty nice overall OPS.

 

 

 

I never said they were some kind of god, pull your head out of your ass a read what I posted.

 

I found it funny that you claimed anyone that expected the Yankee duo to outperform the sox tandem must have "rose colored glasses".

 

Then harmony immediately posted Steamers' predictions that did just that, and they surely don't have "rose colored glasses".

 

I found it amusing.

[moonslav59]

Did you notice a trend with Pearce? Great-Terrible-Great-Terrible-Great. I wonder what's coming up?

 

.757 is not terrible.

 

I'll take .890> .575> .867 over wings and prayers.

[moonslav59]

I never said they were some kind of god, pull your head out of your ass a read what I posted.

 

I found it funny that you claimed anyone that expected the Yankee duo to outperform the sox tandem must have "rose colored glasses".

 

Then harmony immediately posted Steamers' predictions that did just that, and they surely don't have "rose colored glasses".

 

I found it amusing.

 

They make projections like you and I.

 

If they come up short on the Yankee 1Bmen, then yes, they will have had rose colored glasses.

[harmony]

They make projections like you and I.

 

If they come up short on the Yankee 1Bmen, then yes, they will have had rose colored glasses.

And conversely, if the Yankee first basemen outperform the Red Sox first-baggers, moonslav clearly wears the rose-colored glasses.

 

I simply cited a source with no obvious bias.

[moonslav59]

And conversely, if the Yankee first basemen outperform the Red Sox first-baggers, moonslav clearly wears the rose-colored glasses.

 

It wouldn't be the first time I've projected more than we ended up getting, but as everyone here knows, I've never been a big Moreland supporter.

 

To me, it's more about the unrealistic hopes Yanks fans and apparently Steamer has for Bird & Voit.

 

If they end up out performing Moreland & Pearce, I'll readily admit I was wrong. I've done it before.

 

[notin]

Did you notice a trend with Pearce? Great-Terrible-Great-Terrible-Great. I wonder what's coming up?

 

Better than Voit’s trend of minors, majors, minors, majors. What do you suppose is next?

 

Or Bird’s trend of DL, DL, DL? Where does that pattern go next?

[moonslav59]

Some other questions about the 2019 Yanks:

 

We've already beaten the 1B position to death, and nobody can say the Yanks or Sox will be above average at this normally big offensive position.

 

SS: Did will return, but how well will he recover from TJ surgery? How long will it take for him to regain his bat and arm? (Machado would change this)

 

2B: Torres is certainly a very promising player. His .820 OPS last year blows away any numbers the Sox put up, but he has under 500 career PAs in MLB and his .755 OPS over his last 221 PAs may be a sign of his true level on offense. His minor leagie OPS is .781 over 1602 PAs. No doubt, he's a promising young player, but he could take a step back from .820.

 

3B: Andujar is a very promising young player. He reminds me of Devers, especially on defense. He's 23 and the sky seems to be the limit for both him and Devers. If the Yanks sign Machado, one wonders if he will be traded, moved to 1B or whatever. Like Devers, there are questions.

 

LF: Gardner is 35. He's been under .715 in 2 of his last 3 seasons. If Sanchez or Andujar DH, then Gardner makes a nice 4th OF'er, but if he's used in the OF more often than not, then once could call this a weak point on the team.

 

Age: While the Yanks are certainly loaded with some fine young talent and prime players, they will be relying more much older players in key roles than the Sox will be doing. We have more over 33, but the players 35 and older in key roles show the Yanks with 3 and the Sox with zero.

 

38 Sabathia (5th starter) turns 39 in July

36 JA Happ (3-4 starter) turns 37 in Oct

35 Gardner (OF) turns 36 in August

 

Sox

35 Pearce (1B short platoon) turns 36 in April

35 Pedey (2B out last year) turns 36 in AUG

 

34 Wright (6th starter) turns 35 in AUG

 

33 Price (#2 SP'er) turns 34 in AUG

33 Moreland (1B long platoon) turns 34 in Sept

 

[Bellhorn04]

Better than Voit’s trend of minors, majors, minors, majors. What do you suppose is next?

 

Or Bird’s trend of DL, DL, DL? Where does that pattern go next?

 

Easy man, you're going to tie the poor guy in knots.

[notin]

Some other questions about the 2019 Yanks:

 

We've already beaten the 1B position to death, and nobody can say the Yanks or Sox will be above average at this normally big offensive position.

 

 

 

The Sox and Yankees 1b situations both have potential to be the least productive in the American League outside of Baltimore. Debate does need to die...