A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

Per rotoworld, the Giants plan on making reliever Will Smith available once the closer market thins out.

 

Smith is a relief stud. If the Sox can score Smith (for Dalbec and Hernandez?) and sign, say, Kelvin Herrera, how would that make people feel about this bullpen?

How do Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez land a "relief stud"?

[moonslav59]

I'm not glorifying the saves . Just pointing out what actually happened. And not everybody can match that . Some have blown leads and lost big games . That has happened a lot , even to the best . You are dismissing a nine year body of work that is as good, or better , than anyone has ever accomplished. Kimbrel is 30 years old and has always been healthy , strong and durable . Could he decline in ability? Of course. So could any of the others . I'm sorry. I don't get it . If you prefer Cody Allen because you think he can " bounce back " , so be it . I am looking for the Sox to repeat in 2019 . As far as somebody walking in 2020 or beyond, let's cross that bridge when we get to it . We need a strong, deep bullpen to win this season .

 

I'm not dismissing those 9 years. I said he was the best.

 

Key word: was.

 

Of course I'd prefer CK over Allen everyday of the week.

 

Can you respond to the scenario I put before you and assume the budget is real and is a restriction?

[S5Dewey]

I am looking for the Sox to repeat in 2019 . As far as somebody walking in 2020 or beyond, let's cross that bridge when we get to it . We need a strong, deep bullpen to win this season .

 

How perspectives change after the team wins. It wasn't that long ago that one WSC was all we were asking for. "Just one. It's been 80+ years. All I want is ONE before I die."

Now after four WSC's in 15 seasons we're saying, "We've got a legitimate shot at another one but I'm willing to pass that chance up because I'm more worried about 2020-2025.

 

I dunno. Maybe I'm different from most here. My day to day demeanor isn't dependent on whether the Sox won or lost on the previous day. I love the wins but I also accept the fact that a team can't win every day... or every year, but IMO when the opportunity is right in front of you to go B2B you take your best shot at it. If it works, great, and if it doesn't it's still only baseball and (I hope!) my life will go on.

[cp176]

How perspectives change after the team wins. It wasn't that long ago that one WSC was all we were asking for. "Just one. It's been 80+ years. All I want is ONE before I die."

Now after four WSC's in 15 seasons we're saying, "We've got a legitimate shot at another one but I'm willing to pass that chance up because I'm more worried about 2020-2025.

 

I dunno. Maybe I'm different from most here. My day to day demeanor isn't dependent on whether the Sox won or lost on the previous day. I love the wins but I also accept the fact that a team can't win every day... or every year, but IMO when the opportunity is right in front of you to go B2B you take your best shot at it. If it works, great, and if it doesn't it's still only baseball and (I hope!) my life will go on.

 

I don't think that you are much different than the normal Sox fan. We all don't want nor do we need to play GM. I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of us who look forward to this upcoming season with the same hopes and expectations that we will have in let's say 2025 if we are still here.

I do think think that there is a pretty good chance that Kimbrel comes back. Certainly not for the number of years that he is looking for though. As for his impending decline that some here say is inevitable to begin if it already hasn't simply because he is 30, I'm not sure that I buy it with respect to this guy. I didn't like what I saw from him over the second half of last year but I don't think that he is done anytime soon. His health is good and looks to me as though his velocity is still right where it needs to be. Someone will take a shot with him and he is going to strengthen anybody's bullpen.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re not getting Smith for nothing and that proposal is nothing.

 

This thread has been very interesting and shows what a team at the end of their window needs to think about. If you get a top notch reliever or two, your chances to repeat in 2019 rise yet your chances after 2019 drop. It’s the classic carpe diem vs playing the long game argument. Here’s my take on this. With how the CBA has changed things and with the lux tax line really altering large market thinking, you don’t get the opportunity to be the lead dog very often or for very long. The Sox were the lead dog in 2018. They’re returning everyone except for two very capable relief arms. The loss of those relief arms could kill the Sox in a year where a lot of key players are in contract years. I understand that signing Kimbrel makes it harder to re-sign JD and Xander, but I also understand that repeat champs hasn’t happened since the Yanks 3-peat. You’re likely staring at a vastly inferior team come 2020 anyway. DD has to seize the day and make his 2019 squad the juggernauts they were last year

[oldtimer]

I don't think that you are much different than the normal Sox fan. We all don't want nor do we need to play GM. I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of us who look forward to this upcoming season with the same hopes and expectations that we will have in let's say 2025 if we are still here.

I do think think that there is a pretty good chance that Kimbrel comes back. Certainly not for the number of years that he is looking for though. As for his impending decline that some here say is inevitable to begin if it already hasn't simply because he is 30, I'm not sure that I buy it with respect to this guy. I didn't like what I saw from him over the second half of last year but I don't think that he is done anytime soon. His health is good and looks to me as though his velocity is still right where it needs to be. Someone will take a shot with him and he is going to strengthen anybody's bullpen.

 

Like I sense you are, I too am an older guy who has watched and rooted for the Sox for many years while watching the good and great players come and go during their careers. I can imagine the difficulties a GM faces doing business with the players and agents whiile living within the constraints applied on him by MLBB and the owners. I appreciate what DD and the others were able to do and really don't expect another WS in my lifetime, but will be pleased if it does happen.

 

The expectations of players are much greater than in the past and I don't blame them for asking for all that they can get. The GM living with his reality will make an offer that is in the best interest of the club. In Kimbrel's case, that will take into his age at 30 (still pretty young) and his arm which has remained good as evidenced by his good velocity. I think most folks on this site would like him back but would suggest doing it with a contract offer that includes no more than 3 years to reduce the risk, and at a total dollar amount that keeps us under the second tier of the penalty threshhold. That probably needs to include a little room for unforseen issues like with Pedroia's health. I trust DD to manage the club payroll and will support his conclusions as he is in a much better position to know the situatioon holistically than I.

[Bellhorn04]

You’re not getting Smith for nothing and that proposal is nothing.

 

This thread has been very interesting and shows what a team at the end of their window needs to think about. If you get a top notch reliever or two, your chances to repeat in 2019 rise yet your chances after 2019 drop. It’s the classic carpe diem vs playing the long game argument. Here’s my take on this. With how the CBA has changed things and with the lux tax line really altering large market thinking, you don’t get the opportunity to be the lead dog very often or for very long. The Sox were the lead dog in 2018. They’re returning everyone except for two very capable relief arms. The loss of those relief arms could kill the Sox in a year where a lot of key players are in contract years. I understand that signing Kimbrel makes it harder to re-sign JD and Xander, but I also understand that repeat champs hasn’t happened since the Yanks 3-peat. You’re likely staring at a vastly inferior team come 2020 anyway. DD has to seize the day and make his 2019 squad the juggernauts they were last year

 

It's not really DD's call as to how much money is left to spend of course.

[notin]

How do Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez land a "relief stud"?

 

 

The same way Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero did?

 

Smith has been worth 4.1 fWAR over the past 3 seasons, the exact same amount Alex Colome was worth in the three seasons prior to his trade to Seattle. The difference is Smith, unlike Colome, has only one year left on his current contract...

[cp176]

Like I sense you are, I too am an older guy who has watched and rooted for the Sox for many years while watching the good and great players come and go during their careers. I can imagine the difficulties a GM faces doing business with the players and agents whiile living within the constraints applied on him by MLBB and the owners. I appreciate what DD and the others were able to do and really don't expect another WS in my lifetime, but will be pleased if it does happen.

 

The expectations of players are much greater than in the past and I don't blame them for asking for all that they can get. The GM living with his reality will make an offer that is in the best interest of the club. In Kimbrel's case, that will take into his age at 30 (still pretty young) and his arm which has remained good as evidenced by his good velocity. I think most folks on this site would like him back but would suggest doing it with a contract offer that includes no more than 3 years to reduce the risk, and at a total dollar amount that keeps us under the second tier of the penalty threshhold. That probably needs to include a little room for unforseen issues like with Pedroia's health. I trust DD to manage the club payroll and will support his conclusions as he is in a much better position to know the situatioon holistically than I.

 

We share a lot of the same views I think. Following this team with all its ebbs and flows is what I have done now since 1955(I was 4). I've been a fan of every team as well as every GM that we have had since that time. There were a couple of times when my patience was certainly tested but I am loyal. I might question moves that are made but I realize that I am in no position to claim that I am an expert in what needs to be done. Over the years this current ownership team has been incredible and I expect that they will continue to be so.

[notin]

You’re not getting Smith for nothing and that proposal is nothing.

 

 

It’s not a nothing offer.

 

Hernandez’ stock rose with his AFL performance. Smith has one year left on his contract. If you compare Smith to Alex Colome performance-wise, he’s about the same pitcher (4.1 fWAR the in 3 seasons prior). In the past 18 months, Colome has been traded twice, once for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero and once for Omar Navarez. The trade to Seattle was when he still had 2 years left...

[notin]

How perspectives change after the team wins. It wasn't that long ago that one WSC was all we were asking for. "Just one. It's been 80+ years. All I want is ONE before I die."

Now after four WSC's in 15 seasons we're saying, "We've got a legitimate shot at another one but I'm willing to pass that chance up because I'm more worried about 2020-2025.

 

I dunno. Maybe I'm different from most here. My day to day demeanor isn't dependent on whether the Sox won or lost on the previous day. I love the wins but I also accept the fact that a team can't win every day... or every year, but IMO when the opportunity is right in front of you to go B2B you take your best shot at it. If it works, great, and if it doesn't it's still only baseball and (I hope!) my life will go on.

 

As a fan, you have the luxury of saying “Forget 2020! Go for it now!! Strike while the iron is hot!! And all those other cliches!!”

 

But my point is DD would be negligent in his job to act in such a manner. Not only is thinking about 2020 and beyond part of his job, really, so is thinking about July, 2019.

 

Injuries are inevitable. Leaving yourself unprepared for this is foolish...

[SoxnCycles]

I stand by my opinion that the Sox offense would have improved dramatically even without the addition of JD.

 

I stand by my opinion that we don't need a big name closer this year. That is not the same as saying that we don't need great relief pitchers and a strong bullpen. I just don't think you have to pay a fortune to get there.

 

I don't understand how the idea of building a great pen without spending a fortune gets twisted into "we don't need a good closer".

 

If Kimbrel can be signed to a reasonable contract, say 2/24 or something similar, fine.

No way should the Sox even come close to what he's asking for.

Let's see how he feels about coming back in the middle of Feb.

[S5Dewey]

As a fan, you have the luxury of saying “Forget 2020! Go for it now!! Strike while the iron is hot!! And all those other cliches!!”

 

But my point is DD would be negligent in his job to act in such a manner. Not only is thinking about 2020 and beyond part of his job, really, so is thinking about July, 2019.

 

Injuries are inevitable. Leaving yourself unprepared for this is foolish...

 

I have long maintained that one reason the Sox went 84 years without a WSC was because they were always in "Wait 'til Next Year!" mode. DD went all out last year to do what was necessary to set the team up for 2018 & 2019. The Sox won it all in 2018 so do we now rest on our laurels and be sure 2020 looks ok or does the team gear up for one more big run before the exodus of star players? That exodus IS going to happen, whether we win it all again in 2019 or not.

[notin]

I have long maintained that one reason the Sox went 84 years without a WSC was because they were always in "Wait 'til Next Year!" mode. DD went all out last year to do what was necessary to set the team up for 2018 & 2019. The Sox won it all in 2018 so do we now rest on our laurels and be sure 2020 looks ok or does the team gear up for one more big run before the exodus of star players? That exodus IS going to happen, whether we win it all again in 2019 or not.

 

Keeping 2020 in mind is NOT the same as resting on laurels, andd the fact that so many key players are free agents after 2019 is more of a reason to keep 2020 in mind than it is to just worry about it later. My guess is Dombrowski plans on having a job then, too.

 

If the goal was solely 2019, why Eovaldi over Kimbrel? Eovaldi was only with the Sox for 12 starts and 54 IP - hardly numbers one would associate with a core starting pitcher.

 

The answer very likely he was brought back with not only 2019 in mind, but also 2020 and beyond, as Sale and Porcello could both depart.

 

Kimbrel might return still. But not with a contract that Dombrowski figures to hamper his ability to re-sign Betts or whoever. I do think he knows what he’s doing and his plan isn’t simply 2019 and then “see what happens.” Because he knows that if the team sucks in 2020, no one will say “Yeah but we won it all in 2018, so it’s ok.” Just like no one said it about Cherington in 2014...

[harmony]

It’s not a nothing offer.

 

Hernandez’ stock rose with his AFL performance. Smith has one year left on his contract. If you compare Smith to Alex Colome performance-wise, he’s about the same pitcher (4.1 fWAR the in 3 seasons prior). In the past 18 months, Colome has been traded twice, once for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero and once for Omar Navarez. The trade to Seattle was when he still had 2 years left...

To be precise, the cost-conscious Tampa Bay Rays traded two-plus years of Alex Colome and four months of Denard Span (who had a net $8 million remaining on his contract) to Seattle for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. Despite six years of team control, Moore was a post-prospect who had recorded five quality MLB starts the previous season. Romero posted a 2.95 ERA in 25 starts last year as a 20-year-old in Single A.

 

The more recent trade of Colome netted four years of catcher Omar Narvaez, who posted 2.1 fWAR last year in only 97 games.

 

Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are the sixth- and seventh-ranked* prospects in a bottom-third farm system. They have limited trade value.

 

* according to MLB.com Prospect Watch. SoxProspects rank Hernandez No. 4 and Dalbec No. 5.

Edited January 7, 2019 by harmony

[BillyWilliams]

I don't understand how the idea of building a great pen without spending a fortune gets twisted into "we don't need a good closer".

 

If Kimbrel can be signed to a reasonable contract, say 2/24 or something similar, fine.

No way should the Sox even come close to what he's asking for.

Let's see how he feels about coming back in the middle of Feb.

 

There's no way in hell kimbrel signs for 2/24.

 

What are you smoking?!

[notin]

To be precise, the cost-conscious Tampa Bay Rays traded two-plus years of Alex Colome and four months of Denard Span (who had a net $8 million remaining on his contract) to Seattle for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. Despite six years of team control, Moore was a post-prospect who had recorded five quality MLB starts the previous season. Romero posted a 2.95 ERA in 25 starts last year as a 20-year-old in Single A.

 

The more recent trade of Colome netted four years of catcher Omar Narvaez, who posted 2.1 fWAR last year in only 97 games.

 

Bobby Dalbec and Darwinzon Hernandez are the sixth- and seventh-ranked* prospects in a bottom-third farm system. They have limited trade value.

 

* according to MLB.com Prospect Watch. SoxProspects rank Hernandez No. 4 and Dalbec No. 5.

 

 

The only real difference than is Span. The prospects dealt by the Mariners were weak, to be kindMoore was ranked 8th in the Mariners farm in mid-season 2017 by some and Romero was outside the top 20 of what was also a bottom third farm system. And citing their post-trade accomplishments doesn’t change what their status at the time of deal was. It’s not like improving is something limited to Mariner minor leaguers.

 

Actually predicting a trade like this is difficult, but plenty of deals are made because GMs often value players differently than fans and scouting organizations. The Sox do lack the prospects to add major pieces, but could certainly add a reliever similar to Smith (who, again, has only one year of control left) using some combination of players like Chavis, Dalbec and Hernandez, whose status has apparently risen with his recent AFL success.

[a700hitter]

I don't understand how the idea of building a great pen without spending a fortune gets twisted into "we don't need a good closer".

 

If Kimbrel can be signed to a reasonable contract, say 2/24 or something similar, fine.

No way should the Sox even come close to what he's asking for.

Let's see how he feels about coming back in the middle of Feb.

2/24 is not realistic.

[notin]

2/24 is not realistic.

 

Maybe for Ottavino? Not for Kimbrel.

 

Now maybe Kimbrel comes back on a 1year / $18-20 mill deal, assuming Henry allows the expense as long as it doesn’t hamper a reset (if the budget constraints are real)...

[BillyWilliams]

Maybe for Ottavino? Not for Kimbrel.

 

Now maybe Kimbrel comes back on a 1year / $18-20 mill deal, assuming Henry allows the expense as long as it doesn’t hamper a reset (if the budget constraints are real)...

 

The Yanks are said to be hot on Ottavino.

 

My guess is they would jump all over him at 2/24

[notin]

The Yanks are said to be hot on Ottavino.

 

My guess is they would jump all over him at 2/24

 

 

If both teams offer 2/$24, then why does he choose setting up in New York over closing in Boston?

 

And if the Yankees sign him, will it be an obstacle in the pursuit of Machado?..

[BillyWilliams]

If both teams offer 2/$24, then why does he choose setting up in New York over closing in Boston?

 

And if the Yankees sign him, will it be an obstacle in the pursuit of Machado?..

 

I'm not saying he does, just that the Yanks might be willing to go even a little higher. And Britton did choose to set up in NY rather than close elsewhere, so you never know.

 

From what I have read, signing Ottavino would not impede signing Machado.

[notin]

I'm not saying he does, just that the Yanks might be willing to go even a little higher. And Britton did choose to set up in NY rather than close elsewhere, so you never know.

 

From what I have read, signing Ottavino would not impede signing Machado.

 

 

Did Britton have other actual offers? And if so, for how much?

 

I do realize not every offer gets reported by every website...

[BillyWilliams]

Did Britton have other actual offers? And if so, for how much?

 

I do realize not every offer gets reported by every website...

 

From what I read there were many teams interested in him.

 

And why wouldn't they be, when healthy the guy is pretty damn good.

[notin]

From what I read there were many teams interested in him.

 

And why wouldn't they be, when healthy the guy is pretty damn good.

 

But we all know that “interested” doesn’t mean “offers” and certainly not “good offers.”

 

My guess is he signed with the Yankees because they had the best or possibly only actual offer on the table...

[BillyWilliams]

But we all know that “interested” doesn’t mean “offers” and certainly not “good offers.”

 

My guess is he signed with the Yankees because they had the best or possibly only actual offer on the table...

 

Right, because one of the top relievers on the market only had poor offers or none aside from the Yanks..........

[dgalehouse]

I never really expected the Sox to sign Kimbrel . Too much money . Too many years . Never thought it was a matter of Kimbrel or bust . There were viable alternatives , albeit not as good . But now the viable alternatives are disappearing one by one . Britton to the Yankees hurts the most . It is getting to where it is Kimbrel or bust . Is D.D. playing the waiting game again , ala J.D.Martinez ? Or are we really preparing to go with Matt Barnes as the bell cow of the bullpen ?

[moonslav59]

I want us to try hard to win this year, and if the plan is to reset after 2019, I'd be fine with a 1 year deep decline (or cliff), if we try to set it up where we can become pretty competitive in 2021 and highly competitive afterwards.

 

I'm not sure how easy this will be to do, but my assumptions are based on Henry's willingness to go $39M over the line the year after we reset. The tax rate will be lower. We will have lost a few key players after 2019 (most likely Porcello & Sale), but Pablo will be off the books, and spending near $250M in 2021 should make any team highly competitive.

 

I just don't see how we can try very hard to win this year, be competitive in 2020 and highly competitive beyond that. When the reset is planned makes a big difference in the deals we make this winter. I can't see us going 2 more winters without resetting. If I'm wrong then so be it, but I'm pretty certain Henry has a reset as a high priority within the next 2 years.

 

I'd love to have a great closer, but I'd rather have Eovaldi than CK, so I'm fine with where DD chose to spend his limited funds this winter.

 

 

[notin]

Right, because one of the top relievers on the market only had poor offers or none aside from the Yanks..........

 

 

Which would make him unique how? It’s not like the news is overflowing with stockpiles of offers for relievers.

 

Oh that’s right. It’s because every player in MLB is so dying to play for the Yankees to the point where they all are willing to take less money and reduced roles. I hear Bryce Harper is willing to pay the Yankees for the honor of being their batboy...

[notin]

I never really expected the Sox to sign Kimbrel . Too much money . Too many years . Never thought it was a matter of Kimbrel or bust . There were viable alternatives , albeit not as good . But now the viable alternatives are disappearing one by one . Britton to the Yankees hurts the most . It is getting to where it is Kimbrel or bust . Is D.D. playing the waiting game again , ala J.D.Martinez ? Or are we really preparing to go with Matt Barnes as the bell cow of the bullpen ?

 

 

He is down to waiting on Kimbrel, but it’s not the same as with Martinez, who had no other teams bidding. The Braves are reportedly in on Kimbrel, but they’re usually not tough to outbid. But the Cubs and Angels, while no rumors yet, could both use closers and typically have a good bankroll to draw from.

 

I do think he is prepared to use Barnes, but I doubt that’s DD’s top choice either (despite that he will publicly say it was all along if it happens). But Kimbrel or not, the status quo for the pen is not a good idea...