A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

I agree, but the thinking might be that the created budget space would allow us to improve our pen by more than our OF defense suffers by trading JBJ.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but I'm not sure what the plans are for this club to reset. If their plan is to reset after 2019 and JBJ is not in their 2020 plans, then this deal now makes more sense, especially if trading JBJ allows us to greatly improve our pen.

 

. We don't have access to the bottom line. I would venture a guess that , despite the high payroll, the Sox turned an impressive net profit last year . Don't worry so much about tomorrow. Tomorrow never comes. Win now !!!!

[moonslav59]

. We don't have access to the bottom line. I would venture a guess that , despite the high payroll, the Sox turned an impressive net profit last year . Don't worry so much about tomorrow. Tomorrow never comes. Win now !!!!

 

We won NOW, already. We will be highly competitive this year.

 

DD has a bottom line. We'll see what it is. I'm sure, if his bottom line is high enough to get a top RP'er, he'll do it.

[notin]

. We don't have access to the bottom line. I would venture a guess that , despite the high payroll, the Sox turned an impressive net profit last year . Don't worry so much about tomorrow. Tomorrow never comes. Win now !!!!

 

 

But unfortunately the really is DD’s job to worry about tomorrow...

[Northern Star]

. We don't have access to the bottom line. I would venture a guess that , despite the high payroll, the Sox turned an impressive net profit last year . Don't worry so much about tomorrow. Tomorrow never comes. Win now !!!!

 

No offense to you whatsoever, but this attitude is prevalent in society and drives, for example, the thinking of big business and investors, and even the government. It's shortsighted and irresponsible.

[dgalehouse]

No offense to you whatsoever, but this attitude is prevalent in society and drives, for example, the thinking of big business and investors, and even the government. It's shortsighted and irresponsible.

 

It is not recommended for everybody in every walk of life or every situation.

[notin]

It makes perfect sense. What D.D. has done is assemble the best team in baseball. He has been praised for it . If what he is now doing is starting to disassemble it , people will tend to lose faith. Not at all amazing.

 

 

He also built the most expensive team in baseball and apparently that part of it might not be so sustainable...

[Bellhorn04]

We won NOW, already. We will be highly competitive this year.

 

DD has a bottom line. We'll see what it is. I'm sure, if his bottom line is high enough to get a top RP'er, he'll do it.

 

I think there will be very few of us who won't be shocked if he doesn't acquire one top RP'er.

[notin]

I think there will be very few of us who won't be shocked if he doesn't acquire one top RP'er.

 

At this point, that just leaves Kimbrel, right? Who else would be top?

 

I expect him to add at least one and possibly/hopefully two relievers...

[Bellhorn04]

At this point, that just leaves Kimbrel, right? Who else would be top?

 

I expect him to add at least one and possibly/hopefully two relievers...

 

I was including Herrera and Allen. Maybe not top, technically, but well-known commodities.

[dgalehouse]

At this point, that just leaves Kimbrel, right? Who else would be top?

 

I expect him to add at least one and possibly/hopefully two relievers...

 

Ottavino is maybe the only other one who could realistically be called " top. " And even that might be a stretch.

[Bellhorn04]

With regard to the win-now philosophy, I think the Sox basically announced they were in win-now mode this year when they signed Pearce. That move made no sense otherwise. And to me it still doesn't make sense they would sign Pearce at the expense of not getting any relievers.

[cp176]

With regard to the win-now philosophy, I think the Sox basically announced they were in win-now mode this year when they signed Pearce. That move made no sense otherwise. And to me it still doesn't make sense they would sign Pearce at the expense of not getting any relievers.

 

Here comes Craig!

[dgalehouse]

Most of the discussion has been about the closer position. But we really could use two good bullpen arms. At least one of whom has the ability to close . And the options are getting fewer . The Yankees bullpen looks very formidable. Let's not let our bullpen become our Achilles ' heel .

[notin]

I was including Herrera and Allen. Maybe not top, technically, but well-known commodities.

 

I was hesitant to call them top, but I think both are good and likely options....

[notin]

With regard to the win-now philosophy, I think the Sox basically announced they were in win-now mode this year when they signed Pearce. That move made no sense otherwise. And to me it still doesn't make sense they would sign Pearce at the expense of not getting any relievers.

 

If nothing else, the rush to sign Pearce was puzzling. Beyond being a World Series hero, he’s really not some elite missing piece...

[Bellhorn04]

If nothing else, the rush to sign Pearce was puzzling. Beyond being a World Series hero, he’s really not some elite missing piece...

 

He's a luxury piece, nice to have, but not essential. Which is part of why I think there's still some cash in the sock drawer for a reliever.

[Kimmi]

I think DD is facing the reality of trying to come in under the second tier luxury tax threshold and also looking forward to the following years. He may not want to trade JBJ but on the other hand he needs to look at where he might cut salaries while having the least impact on the team. Hence the JBJ talk and the Kimbrel and Kelly talk and situation. It sounds like the JBJ avenue is closed for now and the Kimbrel situation is fluid. Having limits financially is the reality and how to navigaqte those is what all the talk is about. DD is in the middle and won't please everyone but hopefully will do an intelligent job of keeping the pieces togther to be very competitive.

 

Dombrowski does have a harsh reality facing him, unless Henry decides to throw all caution to the wind and exceed the luxury tax year after year. I get why he would try to trade JBJ, but then he creates another hole. Next year might make more sense to explore these trades.

[Kimmi]

I agree that you don't have to pay a fortune to get a great closer, but at the same time you have a better chance of landing one - and therefore a better chance of a 2nd WSC - than if you just throw guys out there and hope for the best. We may stumble onto something like we did with Koji... but there's a better chance that we won't.

 

I'm in "win now" mode. While I don't believe in the cliff at the same time I do believe that it's going to be harder to compete for even a division championship in a couple of years so I want the best team I can get on the field in 2019.

 

IMO DD is playing the same waiting game that he did with JDM, He's waiting until the price is right, hoping that nobody else is willing to pay more than the Sox, and then he'll swoop in with an offer that Kimbrel can't refuse.

 

The problem with 'win now' mode is that it might further steepen the upcoming cliff. The team is really good as it is. Dombrowski should be able to find us a great closer at a reasonable price. It may even be Kimbrel if his market keeps dropping.

[Kimmi]

It's as simple as this: if we lose the division this year or lose in the playoffs because of a weak bullpen, it makes us look a little stupid for having such a ginormous payroll with so little of it devoted to such an important area.

 

That won't happen.

 

If we lose the division or in the playoffs, it will be because of other reasons.

[Kimmi]

Anybody giving a reliever more than 3 years is playing with fire

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

They don't want to spend on the bullpen, you mean.

 

Nah, I don't want to spend, period.

[S5Dewey]

Dombrowski does have a harsh reality facing him, unless Henry decides to throw all caution to the wind and exceed the luxury tax year after year. I get why he would try to trade JBJ, but then he creates another hole. Next year might make more sense to explore these trades.

 

This is exactly what I'm thinking. This team's window is only going to be open for a short time. This is a great opportunity - undoubtedly the best in my lifetime - to make a serious run at B2B WSC's.

 

I think most of us agree that the Sox are going to run into a serious money crunch when many of these players reach free agency all at the same time. To me it would make A LOT more sense to do what he has to do for 2019 and then see what 2020 brings.

[Kimmi]

Yes. They’re dialing back because they probably need to.

 

And unless he can make some ancillary deals to clear salary, closer will not be a position with a huge chunk of payroll. This is what it looks like he is doing. It is kind of surprising that if anyone echoes this plan, they get derided with “You don’t get how important closer is!!” despite it being reality and not messageboard BS. But if anyone says anything negative about DD Oor praises Cherington, suddenly it’s “How dare you not genuflect at the alter of Dombrowski!!!”.

 

It’s truly amazing how many people place the ultimate faith in everything DD has done and yet still have no faith in what he is doing....

 

Thank you. Let's have a little faith in Dombrowski. Despite my criticism of him, he knows what he is doing.

 

When all is said and done with the bullpen, I am likely to be less happy with it than most of the posters here.

[Kimmi]

I just think it will be very difficult to repeat with a second rate bullpen. We lost Kimbrel and Kelly . So far , we have done nothing to fill their shoes. More and more of the top tier relievers are now off the board. I hope that D.D. has a plan. That is all .

 

And I will ask you again. Do you really think Dombrowski is going to go into the season with a second rate bullpen?

[notin]

U

This is exactly what I'm thinking. This team's window is only going to be open for a short time. This is a great opportunity - undoubtedly the best in my lifetime - to make a serious run at B2B WSC's.

 

I think most of us agree that the Sox are going to run into a serious money crunch when many of these players reach free agency all at the same time. To me it would make A LOT more sense to do what he has to do for 2019 and then see what 2020 brings.

 

I think Dombrowski - like most GMs - values trying for a sustainable run of excellence over two quick titles.

 

The attention span of most (all) fans is pretty short, and no matter how many times they hear about one title this year being enough to make them happy, we all know it isn’t to be believed. The Sox could win the World Series in2019, but if the 2020 team sucks, no one will mention 2019.

 

Remember on BDC some fans complaining “this team hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2004 World Series!!”. That was in the preseason of 2007!!

[Kimmi]

But unfortunately the really is DD’s job to worry about tomorrow...

 

Tomorrow only never comes if you don't plan for it.

[dgalehouse]

And I will ask you again. Do you really think Dombrowski is going to go into the season with a second rate bullpen?

 

I certainly hope not . Of course , there might be a difference of opinion on what constitutes a second rate pen .

[S5Dewey]

.

 

It’s truly amazing how many people place the ultimate faith in everything DD has done and yet still have no faith in what he is doing....

I don't think this is at all a fair representation of the faith the fans have in DD.

 

This assumes we know what he's doing. We don't. All we know is what he has done and what he hasn't done so far.

 

For all we know he may have decided that Barnes or Brasier is going to be the closer so he's not looking for anyone else to close.

 

OTOH, he may be waiting for the market to settle for closers hoping that he can sign Kimbrel to a deal, maybe one with an opt out.

 

We don't know.

[Kimmi]

This is exactly what I'm thinking. This team's window is only going to be open for a short time. This is a great opportunity - undoubtedly the best in my lifetime - to make a serious run at B2B WSC's.

 

I think most of us agree that the Sox are going to run into a serious money crunch when many of these players reach free agency all at the same time. To me it would make A LOT more sense to do what he has to do for 2019 and then see what 2020 brings.

 

Agreed.

 

I still wouldn't go all out for a closer if that means further restricting us financially in the coming years, but I agree with what you're saying overall.

[Kimmi]

I certainly hope not . Of course , there might be a difference of opinion on what constitutes a second rate pen .

 

IMO, our pen entering the season will be one that you will be happy with.