A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

We will add a pen piece.

 

And look for Devers to take a step forward.

 

Yes, and don't be surprised if JBJ has a career year. Beni, too.

[S5Dewey]

Since this is the "realistic" thread I may as well chime in with a bit of realism.

 

Going into 2017 we had a lot of posters who were saying, "We don't really need a big bat in the middle of our order. We've got enough hitters with a high OPS to make up for it". That, along with Kimbrel's 35 saves, propelled the Sox to a winning the division by 2 games over the MFY's. However, that lack of a big bat contributed the the Sox being eliminated in 4 games in the ALDS, scoring just 8 runs in their three losses.

 

In 2018 DD added that big bat and JDM along with Kimbrel's 42 saves brought a WSC to Boston.

 

Now we've got posters discounting those 77 saves over two division championships saying that maybe having a big closer isn't all that important. Heck, anybody can do that, right?? Even having a replacement level "closer". Besides, everyone is supposed to have an 'uptick' this year, so we'll just throw someone out there to close. It'll work. After all, what could possibly go wrong?

 

For me, I'm going back to what Doji said a couple of months ago. Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one. Face it. Not having that proven closer is going to severely hamper our chances for B2B WSC's.

 

It looks to me like DD has most of his eggs in the Kimbrel basket and I sure hope it works out because the rest of the division (that's the Y's and TB) have gotten stronger.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and don't be surprised if JBJ has a career year. Beni, too.

 

Agreed. I expect JBJ to not have one of his major slides this season and to have a more consistent year.

 

On the topic of JBJ, I just read that just last month, Dombrowski was pushing a trade for him harder than for any other veteran player, but that he couldn't find a return package to his liking. I'm a little disappointed in hearing that.

[Kimmi]

Since this is the "realistic" thread I may as well chime in with a bit of realism.

 

Going into 2017 we had a lot of posters who were saying, "We don't really need a big bat in the middle of our order. We've got enough hitters with a high OPS to make up for it". That, along with Kimbrel's 35 saves, propelled the Sox to a winning the division by 2 games over the MFY's. However, that lack of a big bat contributed the the Sox being eliminated in 4 games in the ALDS, scoring just 8 runs in their three losses.

 

In 2018 DD added that big bat and JDM along with Kimbrel's 42 saves brought a WSC to Boston.

 

Now we've got posters discounting those 77 saves over two division championships saying that maybe having a big closer isn't all that important. Heck, anybody can do that, right?? Even having a replacement level "closer". Besides, everyone is supposed to have an 'uptick' this year, so we'll just throw someone out there to close. It'll work. After all, what could possibly go wrong?

 

For me, I'm going back to what Doji said a couple of months ago. Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one. Face it. Not having that proven closer is going to severely hamper our chances for B2B WSC's.

 

It looks to me like DD has most of his eggs in the Kimbrel basket and I sure hope it works out because the rest of the division (that's the Y's and TB) have gotten stronger.

 

I stand by my opinion that the Sox offense would have improved dramatically even without the addition of JD.

 

I stand by my opinion that we don't need a big name closer this year. That is not the same as saying that we don't need great relief pitchers and a strong bullpen. I just don't think you have to pay a fortune to get there.

[oldtimer]

Agreed. I expect JBJ to not have one of his major slides this season and to have a more consistent year.

 

On the topic of JBJ, I just read that just last month, Dombrowski was pushing a trade for him harder than for any other veteran player, but that he couldn't find a return package to his liking. I'm a little disappointed in hearing that.

 

I think DD is facing the reality of trying to come in under the second tier luxury tax threshold and also looking forward to the following years. He may not want to trade JBJ but on the other hand he needs to look at where he might cut salaries while having the least impact on the team. Hence the JBJ talk and the Kimbrel and Kelly talk and situation. It sounds like the JBJ avenue is closed for now and the Kimbrel situation is fluid. Having limits financially is the reality and how to navigaqte those is what all the talk is about. DD is in the middle and won't please everyone but hopefully will do an intelligent job of keeping the pieces togther to be very competitive.

[OH FOY]

I think the JBJ so called Trade Talks was to explore of looking to move a Player with a Decent Contract, at a High Point for Prospects. Going to need them sooner then you think. 1 Team is the surprising thing., that wont work, you need more then 1 Team, to try to get Teams to bid against each other. Not worth your time if Reports are just 1 Team.

[S5Dewey]

I stand by my opinion that the Sox offense would have improved dramatically even without the addition of JD.

 

I stand by my opinion that we don't need a big name closer this year. That is not the same as saying that we don't need great relief pitchers and a strong bullpen. I just don't think you have to pay a fortune to get there.

 

I agree that you don't have to pay a fortune to get a great closer, but at the same time you have a better chance of landing one - and therefore a better chance of a 2nd WSC - than if you just throw guys out there and hope for the best. We may stumble onto something like we did with Koji... but there's a better chance that we won't.

 

I'm in "win now" mode. While I don't believe in the cliff at the same time I do believe that it's going to be harder to compete for even a division championship in a couple of years so I want the best team I can get on the field in 2019.

 

IMO DD is playing the same waiting game that he did with JDM, He's waiting until the price is right, hoping that nobody else is willing to pay more than the Sox, and then he'll swoop in with an offer that Kimbrel can't refuse.

[OH FOY]

Agree on Kimbrel

Disagree on JD, he was huge this year for the Sox. Glad we got him.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that you don't have to pay a fortune to get a great closer, but at the same time you have a better chance of landing one - and therefore a better chance of a 2nd WSC - than if you just throw guys out there and hope for the best. We may stumble onto something like we did with Koji... but there's a better chance that we won't.

 

I'm in "win now" mode. While I don't believe in the cliff at the same time I do believe that it's going to be harder to compete for even a division championship in a couple of years so I want the best team I can get on the field in 2019.

 

IMO DD is playing the same waiting game that he did with JDM, He's waiting until the price is right, hoping that nobody else is willing to pay more than the Sox, and then he'll swoop in with an offer that Kimbrel can't refuse.

 

It's as simple as this: if we lose the division this year or lose in the playoffs because of a weak bullpen, it makes us look a little stupid for having such a ginormous payroll with so little of it devoted to such an important area.

[notin]

It's as simple as this: if we lose the division this year or lose in the playoffs because of a weak bullpen, it makes us look a little stupid for having such a ginormous payroll with so little of it devoted to such an important area.

 

Nah. You just described the 2011-2015 Tigers, which many consider it a Dombrowski success story.

 

But for the record, I think he gets two good relievers. Hopefully their arms stay on this year...

[sk7326]

Anybody giving a reliever more than 3 years is playing with fire

[dgalehouse]

You need talent to win . You need to spend to get and keep talent . Saying " I think this and that , I expect this and that , this might happen, this could happen, so and so will have a good year , I think we'll be fine , etc ." will not get it done. It just doesn't work like that . Edited January 6, 2019 by dgalehouse

[dgalehouse]

Since this is the "realistic" thread I may as well chime in with a bit of realism.

 

Going into 2017 we had a lot of posters who were saying, "We don't really need a big bat in the middle of our order. We've got enough hitters with a high OPS to make up for it". That, along with Kimbrel's 35 saves, propelled the Sox to a winning the division by 2 games over the MFY's. However, that lack of a big bat contributed the the Sox being eliminated in 4 games in the ALDS, scoring just 8 runs in their three losses.

 

In 2018 DD added that big bat and JDM along with Kimbrel's 42 saves brought a WSC to Boston.

 

Now we've got posters discounting those 77 saves over two division championships saying that maybe having a big closer isn't all that important. Heck, anybody can do that, right?? Even having a replacement level "closer". Besides, everyone is supposed to have an 'uptick' this year, so we'll just throw someone out there to close. It'll work. After all, what could possibly go wrong?

 

For me, I'm going back to what Doji said a couple of months ago. Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one. Face it. Not having that proven closer is going to severely hamper our chances for B2B WSC's.

 

It looks to me like DD has most of his eggs in the Kimbrel basket and I sure hope it works out because the rest of the division (that's the Y's and TB) have gotten stronger.

 

Amen .

[notin]

You need talent to win . You need to spend to get and keep talent . Saying " I think this and that , I expect this and that , so and so will have a good year , I think we'll be fine , etc ." will not get it done. It just doesn't work like that .

 

 

But is your point that the Sox aren’t spending? They have a payroll in excess of $230mill, which is probably the largest in MLB history or very close to it.

 

It’s not a lack of spending here...

[dgalehouse]

But is your point that the Sox aren’t spending? They have a payroll in excess of $230mill, which is probably the largest in MLB history or very close to it.

 

It’s not a lack of spending here...

 

But that is what people are calling for . They want to stop spending.

[Bellhorn04]

But that is what people are calling for . They want to stop spending.

 

They don't want to spend on the bullpen, you mean.

[dgalehouse]

Can we match up against the Yankees late in games ? Barnes , Brasier and maybe Cody Allen . Versus Chapman , Betances and Britton. Hmmmmm . I don't know .

[dgalehouse]

They don't want to spend on the bullpen, you mean.

 

Exactly.

[notin]

But that is what people are calling for . They want to stop spending.

 

Yes. They’re dialing back because they probably need to.

 

And unless he can make some ancillary deals to clear salary, closer will not be a position with a huge chunk of payroll. This is what it looks like he is doing. It is kind of surprising that if anyone echoes this plan, they get derided with “You don’t get how important closer is!!” despite it being reality and not messageboard BS. But if anyone says anything negative about DD Oor praises Cherington, suddenly it’s “How dare you not genuflect at the alter of Dombrowski!!!”.

 

It’s truly amazing how many people place the ultimate faith in everything DD has done and yet still have no faith in what he is doing....

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. They’re dialing back because they probably need to.

 

And unless he can make some ancillary deals to clear salary, closer will not be a position with a huge chunk of payroll. This is what it looks like he is doing. It is kind of surprising that if anyone echoes this plan, they get derided with “You don’t get how important closer is!!” despite it being reality and not messageboard BS. But if anyone says anything negative about DD Oor praises Cherington, suddenly it’s “How dare you not genuflect at the alter of Dombrowski!!!”.

 

It’s truly amazing how many people place the ultimate faith in everything DD has done and yet still have no faith in what he is doing....

 

And what you're doing here is engaging in a lot of 'tarring everyone with the same brush'. I don't think the posters on this forum are quite as guilty of groupthink as you're making it sound.

[moonslav59]

MLBTRs reports..

 

Of the pricey veterans the Red Sox reportedly considered trading last month, they “pushed” center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. harder than anyone else, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears (subscription required). However, the Red Sox couldn’t find a deal to their liking for JBJ, Rosenthal notes. The Diamondbacks were the only team publicly connected to Bradley around that time, though there were conflicting reports about whether they were truly interested in him. As of now, it seems the soon-to-be 29-year-old Bradley will once again man center in Boston in 2019, his second-last second of arbitration eligibility. Bradley will make a projected $7.9MM during the upcoming season.

[notin]

And what you're doing here is engaging in a lot of 'tarring everyone with the same brush'. I don't think the posters on this forum are quite as guilty of groupthink as you're making it sound.

 

There is a lot of that going back and forth out here.

 

DD isn’t working without a plan here.

 

I assumed his comment that Barnes or Brasier could close was merely a negotiation tactic. Maybe it isn’t. But if people have faith in his ability to judge baseball talent and put together a winning team, why does that faith suddenly fall short there?

 

I still have doubts he brings back Kimbrel, but I also don’t think that the bullpen will be ignored between now and July...

[dgalehouse]

I just think it will be very difficult to repeat with a second rate bullpen. We lost Kimbrel and Kelly . So far , we have done nothing to fill their shoes. More and more of the top tier relievers are now off the board. I hope that D.D. has a plan. That is all .

[moonslav59]

I think DD is facing the reality of trying to come in under the second tier luxury tax threshold and also looking forward to the following years. He may not want to trade JBJ but on the other hand he needs to look at where he might cut salaries while having the least impact on the team. Hence the JBJ talk and the Kimbrel and Kelly talk and situation. It sounds like the JBJ avenue is closed for now and the Kimbrel situation is fluid. Having limits financially is the reality and how to navigaqte those is what all the talk is about. DD is in the middle and won't please everyone but hopefully will do an intelligent job of keeping the pieces togther to be very competitive.

 

I'd hate to see the Sox trade my favorite player, JBJ, but it does make some sense. It would allow us to get a RP'er and stay under the $40M mark this year, and it would help us get under the luxury tax line after 2019, if we choose to reset for 2020.

 

I guess trading JBJ would mean JD, Holt, Pearce and maybe others like Swihart, Nunez, Moreland or Lin play more OF. We could see Moreland at 1B, Pearce at DH and JD in LF/RF for a few games. We lose heavily on defense, but on offense, we may stay about even.

 

(Note" I do NOT want to trade JBJ. I'd rather trade Bogey or Porcello.)

 

[notin]

I just think it will be very difficult to repeat with a second rate bullpen. We lost Kimbrel and Kelly . So far , we have done nothing to fill their shoes. More and more of the top tier relievers are now off the board. I hope that D.D. has a plan. That is all .

 

 

Yet having an elite closer doesn’t preclude having a second rate bullpen. And not having one doesn’t guarantee it.

 

And there is an immense gray area between not spending Milton a closer and “anyone can close.” Just because someone sees why paying Kimbrel what he wants might not be the best idea doesn’t mean they want to hand the ninth inning to Heath Hembree...

Edited January 6, 2019 by notin

[notin]

I'd hate to see the Sox trade my favorite player, JBJ, but it does make some sense. It would allow us to get a RP'er and stay under the $40M mark this year, and it would help us get under the luxury tax line after 2019, if we choose to reset for 2020.

 

I guess trading JBJ would mean JD, Holt, Pearce and maybe others like Swihart, Nunez, Moreland or Lin play more OF. We could see Moreland at 1B, Pearce at DH and JD in LF/RF for a few games. We lose heavily on defense, but on offense, we may stay about even.

 

(Note" I do NOT want to trade JBJ. I'd rather trade Bogey or Porcello.)

 

 

Trading Bradley makes less sense than X On some levels. The Sox have a weak farm but it is especially barren of outfielders.

 

Milwaukee also reportedly likes X and has a glut of clser type relievers. The Sox could also sign Iglesias to backfill shortstop...

[dgalehouse]

Yet having an elite closer doesn’t preclude having a second rate bullpen. And not having one doesn’t guRyit.

 

And there is an immense gray area between not spending Milton a closer and “anyone can close.” Just because someone sees why paying Kimbrel what he wants might not be the best idea doesn’t mean they want to hand the ninth inning to Heath Hembree...

I understand all of that . However, we have seen the likes of Britton, Familia , Miller and Robertson sign elsewhere. The options are getting fewer and fewer . Now we are seeing names like Brach suggested. That would be taking the chance of wasting a terrific lineup by blowing late leads . If that is all we can afford, if that is the plan , so be it .

[dgalehouse]

Yes. They’re dialing back because they probably need to.

 

And unless he can make some ancillary deals to clear salary, closer will not be a position with a huge chunk of payroll. This is what it looks like he is doing. It is kind of surprising that if anyone echoes this plan, they get derided with “You don’t get how important closer is!!” despite it being reality and not messageboard BS. But if anyone says anything negative about DD Oor praises Cherington, suddenly it’s “How dare you not genuflect at the alter of Dombrowski!!!”.

 

It’s truly amazing how many people place the ultimate faith in everything DD has done and yet still have no faith in what he is doing....

 

It makes perfect sense. What D.D. has done is assemble the best team in baseball. He has been praised for it . If what he is now doing is starting to disassemble it , people will tend to lose faith. Not at all amazing.

[dgalehouse]

I'd hate to see the Sox trade my favorite player, JBJ, but it does make some sense. It would allow us to get a RP'er and stay under the $40M mark this year, and it would help us get under the luxury tax line after 2019, if we choose to reset for 2020.

 

I guess trading JBJ would mean JD, Holt, Pearce and maybe others like Swihart, Nunez, Moreland or Lin play more OF. We could see Moreland at 1B, Pearce at DH and JD in LF/RF for a few games. We lose heavily on defense, but on offense, we may stay about even.

 

(Note" I do NOT want to trade JBJ. I'd rather trade Bogey or Porcello.)

 

Trading JBJ would be another step toward breaking up the best team in baseball. It makes no sense to me . Perhaps they are looking ahead to his free agency and dealing with Boras . But it certainly would not help the Sox defend their title in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Trading JBJ would be another step toward breaking up the best team in baseball. It makes no sense to me . Perhaps they are looking ahead to his free agency and dealing with Boras . But it certainly would not help the Sox defend their title in 2019.

 

I agree, but the thinking might be that the created budget space would allow us to improve our pen by more than our OF defense suffers by trading JBJ.

 

Again, I'm not for trading JBJ, but I'm not sure what the plans are for this club to reset. If their plan is to reset after 2019 and JBJ is not in their 2020 plans, then this deal now makes more sense, especially if trading JBJ allows us to greatly improve our pen.