A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[sk7326]

So it is possible to build a WS contender (or even champion), without decimating the farm.

 

LOL about Baltimore and KC.

 

To a degree - the Red Sox farm was still in the Top 10 at the beginning of their playoff contendership. Atlanta is clearly still a step away from making a true win now move. The Cubs were in terrific shape when they made their first playoff. These teams will all make their own flags fly forever deals if the situation warrants - they would be derelict not to if the chance strikes.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox topped my Seattle Mariners in this ranking of farm systems:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

 

Does anyone still think our farm will replenish itself by magic or something? I've heard for 2 years, we'd build it back up.

 

It's not easy, these days. The system ain't what it used to be. Winning doesn't help. Limited international budgets don't help.

 

We will need farm infusions starting in 2020 or 2021 at the latest. I can't see where that's coming from.

 

I'm okay with the situation, because we won a ring by trading away a lot of highly ranked/rated prospects. DD got some top talent in most of the deals.

 

I will say, I wasn't expecting a 29th ranking, especially since nobody great just graduated this year.

[sk7326]

Does anyone still think our farm will replenish itself by magic or something? I've heard for 2 years, we'd build it back up.

 

It's not easy, these days. The system ain't what it used to be. Winning doesn't help. Limited international budgets don't help.

 

We will need farm infusions starting in 2020 or 2021 at the latest. I can't see where that's coming from.

 

I'm okay with the situation, because we won a ring by trading away a lot of highly ranked/rated prospects. DD got some top talent in most of the deals.

 

I will say, I wasn't expecting a 29th ranking, especially since nobody great just graduated this year.

 

Smart international signings and the odd trade here and there. It will be tough, but every team faces this during its lifecycle. Also the 29th ranking comes from one riff on another publications rankings. That is a lot of error.

[moonslav59]

Top Prospect Count:

 

55+

6 ATL

5 SDP

4 CWS

 

7 teams with none, including BOS

 

50+

12 ATL

12 SDP

11 CWS

9 TBR

 

3 teams with none (BAL, BOS, SEA)

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The interesting thing about these rankings is also the depth. There are 8 teams with 30+ prospects, yet BAL is third to last and the Yanks come in at 21. That’s due to the young depth in the systems. The Yanks lost a lot of high end talent to graduation and trades but they’re starting to replenish at the lower levels. Baltimore was devoid of talent until making some moves at the deadline and having a high pick last year. The Sox only have 20 prospects that they graded out, meaning they don’t have impact guys and don’t have depth. They’re 29th in projected WAR (stupid stat) but 28th in actual prospect numbers. Couple that with the lack of proximity and you’ve got a pretty dead farm system.

[moonslav59]

The interesting thing about these rankings is also the depth. There are 8 teams with 30+ prospects, yet BAL is third to last and the Yanks come in at 21. That’s due to the young depth in the systems. The Yanks lost a lot of high end talent to graduation and trades but they’re starting to replenish at the lower levels. Baltimore was devoid of talent until making some moves at the deadline and having a high pick last year. The Sox only have 20 prospects that they graded out, meaning they don’t have impact guys and don’t have depth. They’re 29th in projected WAR (stupid stat) but 28th in actual prospect numbers. Couple that with the lack of proximity and you’ve got a pretty dead farm system.

 

Add to that is the fact that we didn't just lose anyone to graduation. True, Devers is young and was in the minors not too long ago. Same with Beni, but many teams have a weak farm do to recent graduations- not us.

[notin]

Add to that is the fact that we didn't just lose anyone to graduation. True, Devers is young and was in the minors not too long ago. Same with Beni, but many teams have a weak farm do to recent graduations- not us.

 

But it would be deeper, except the Sox chose to exchange it for Kimbrel, Sale, Pomeranz and a World Series trophy...

[sk7326]

Add to that is the fact that we didn't just lose anyone to graduation. True, Devers is young and was in the minors not too long ago. Same with Beni, but many teams have a weak farm do to recent graduations- not us.

 

This year was a tough year on the farm - injuries in particular. We'll see what happens.

[moonslav59]

But it would be deeper, except the Sox chose to exchange it for Kimbrel, Sale, Pomeranz and a World Series trophy...

 

Oh, I know why, My point was more directed at those that felt we'd rebuild the farm in a short time, even though doing so has gotten a lot more difficult for perennial winning, high-spending teams like the Sox.

 

Last graduated top prospects:

Devers

Beni

ERod

Swihart

 

Last traded top prospects (after start of 2017 season):

Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi)

Ty Buttrey (Kinsler)

Shaun Anderson (Nunez)

 

Not exactly on the level of Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espinoza, Dubon, Basabe & others, but a pretty good haul in return, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

This year was a tough year on the farm - injuries in particular. We'll see what happens.

 

Injuries and PED suspensions.

 

Groome is the best of our prospects to get hurt.

Chavis was suspended for PEDs.

Casas & Flores are just 18

Mata is just 19

 

Dalbec & Darwinzon Hernandez showed some promise, but I'm not sure they will ever crack anyone's top 50 MLB prospect list. Feltman has been talked up by some. Houck and Chatham seem like longshots.

 

We are going to need some major strides by some of these guys to move up in the rankings and have some hope for some help from the farm.

 

[Dojji]

Lost in all the noise is the fact that we'd been in a drafting slump under Cherington for years BEFORFE DD ever got here. Theo had not drafted well in his last few years, and I'm honestly not certain if we have any decent Cherington draft picks in system outside of maybe Devers (was JBJ a Cherington guy? Unsure.

 

DD came in and saw a very top heavy farm system already here. Our drafting and development, especially of starting pitchers, was grim for at least a decade (Brian Johnson is making a bit of noise this year, but until he takes a step forward next year Clay Buchholz is STILL the last relatively successful fully homegrown statrting pitcher this team developed!) Under those circumstances he was clearly going to need to fully reinvent the farm system anyway within the first 3 years of his term as President, no matter what else he did. If he'd gone gentler on the farm it still would have been a wasteland in a year or two due to mediocre drafts, and we'd have no ring to show for it.

 

Just saying, the drafting and development machine breaking down isn't something that happened when DD got here. Some of us seem to have forgotten that outside a few studs in the mid to high minors we were already frustrated with the farm for years before that.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Besides, people here are talking as if GMs don't routinely come into a new job and clean house on prospects their predecessor believed in and they don't. The difference this time is, he managed to take those assets and turn them into an all time great team.

[moonslav59]

Lost in all the noise is the fact that we'd been in a drafting slump under Cherington for years BEFORFE DD ever got here. Theo had not drafted well in his last few years, and I'm honestly not certain if we have any decent Cherington draft picks in system outside of maybe Devers (was JBJ a Cherington guy? Unsure.

 

Ben drafted or signed as Int'l FAs: Beni, Devers, Johnson, Moncada, Kopech & Basabe (who helped get Sale), A Espinoza (who got us Pom), Chavis (our current top prospect), Guerra (part of Kimbrel trade) and D Hernandez (maybe the top sleeper in our farm).

 

Farm building was not Ben's weakness. Top FA signings were.

[moonslav59]

Besides, people here are talking as if GMs don't routinely come into a new job and clean house on prospects their predecessor believed in and they don't. The difference this time is, he managed to take those assets and turn them into an all time great team.

 

No doubt.

 

He picked some winners.

[jacksonianmarch]

And you have to give him credit for it. The Sox haven’t developed well after hitting a lottery with the B’s. The concerning thing I’m seeing with DD is that he seems to be drafting out of the BA handbook and not giving a s*** about boom or bust players. He seems to shoot for the moon on every pick and he hasn’t hit on any. It’s time he develops some players who may have limited ceilings but high floors so they can at least develop some above league average minor leaguers capable of filling in. Heck, just getting replacement level journeyman costs a few million. He needs to have guys who can at least place hold at league minimum and he doesn’t have that

[jacksonianmarch]

No doubt.

 

He picked some winners.

 

The one thing about DD is that he doesn’t settle for good. If he’s gonna make a big deal, he goes for top available talent. He’s not afraid to overpay. This won him a title in Miami. This won him a pennant in Detroit. It won him a title in Boston. Detroit is headed for a long rebuild, but people forget how good his teams were. A rotation with Scherzer, Verlander, and Price one year. All time greats like Cabrera in the lineups. He had some great teams that were fun to watch

[sk7326]

Lost in all the noise is the fact that we'd been in a drafting slump under Cherington for years BEFORFE DD ever got here. Theo had not drafted well in his last few years, and I'm honestly not certain if we have any decent Cherington draft picks in system outside of maybe Devers (was JBJ a Cherington guy? Unsure.

 

Ben drafted or signed as Int'l FAs: Beni, Devers, Johnson, Moncada, Kopech & Basabe (who helped get Sale), A Espinoza (who got us Pom), Chavis (our current top prospect), Guerra (part of Kimbrel trade) and D Hernandez (maybe the top sleeper in our farm).

 

Farm building was not Ben's weakness. Top FA signings were.

 

Yes - although with any free agents of THAT ilk, it's ownership as much as the GM who deserves credit/blame. I doubt that any GM has that level of signing authority - and besides "sign the top FAs in this year's class" is the sort of thing that is easy for an owner to understand and/or recommend.

 

That is the key with Dombrowski now - he has done everything in baseball ... built a champion, developed a farm system etc ... it's really ownership's priorities that matter here. He can do whatever.

[moonslav59]

And you have to give him credit for it. The Sox haven’t developed well after hitting a lottery with the B’s. The concerning thing I’m seeing with DD is that he seems to be drafting out of the BA handbook and not giving a s*** about boom or bust players. He seems to shoot for the moon on every pick and he hasn’t hit on any. It’s time he develops some players who may have limited ceilings but high floors so they can at least develop some above league average minor leaguers capable of filling in. Heck, just getting replacement level journeyman costs a few million. He needs to have guys who can at least place hold at league minimum and he doesn’t have that

 

While I agree, it may be presumptuous to expect his "boom or bust" players to have risen quickly at this point in their careers.

 

The problem is, we will need some sort of youth infusion by 2020 or 2021 at the latest, and nobody really jumps out as being that guy. Sure, we have guys like Feltman and Groome, but they seem like long shots.

 

We could have used a nice rookie for 2019 as well, maybe a 1Bman, 2Bman, 4th OF'er, pen arm, 5th starter...

[moonslav59]

The one thing about DD is that he doesn’t settle for good. If he’s gonna make a big deal, he goes for top available talent. He’s not afraid to overpay. This won him a title in Miami. This won him a pennant in Detroit. It won him a title in Boston. Detroit is headed for a long rebuild, but people forget how good his teams were. A rotation with Scherzer, Verlander, and Price one year. All time greats like Cabrera in the lineups. He had some great teams that were fun to watch

 

He's actually done better with his non-splash deals: Eovaldi, Pearce, Brasier, and last year's Nunez, Fister & Boyer.

 

He rarely misses on these choices.

[Bellhorn04]

He's actually done better with his non-splash deals: Eovaldi, Pearce, Brasier, and last year's Nunez, Fister & Boyer.

 

He rarely misses on these choices.

 

But if he didn't do well on the biggest 'splash deals' - Sale, Price, Kimbrel and JDM - the 'non-splash' deals wouldn't matter very much.

[notin]

But if he didn't do well on the biggest 'splash deals' - Sale, Price, Kimbrel and JDM - the 'non-splash' deals wouldn't matter very much.

 

Even Pomeranz was a good splash deal until last year...

[moonslav59]

But if he didn't do well on the biggest 'splash deals' - Sale, Price, Kimbrel and JDM - the 'non-splash' deals wouldn't matter very much.

 

True. He's done pretty well on all deals, big and small.

[Nick]

DD took the job on the heels of Sox finishing dead last three out of four years.

 

His first task was to right the ship. Signing Price, trading for Kimbrel and Pom were his first order of business.

 

He then moved towards competing for World Championship by first signing Sale and then adding JD to a lineup that seemed 'soft' the previous year.

 

He completed the pursuit by adding Eovaldi and Pearce at trade deadline.

 

Realistically we shouldn't count on Wright nor Pedey returning at 100% next year. They are incapacitated.

 

My priority would be to sign Eovaldi, then Pearce and if we can squeeze in Kelly then we'll be set. I think we can fill 2B internally. We did it in 2018.

 

Cot's has the Sox at $219M. Our fictitious budget is $246M ($40M plus the luxury tax limit of $206M). That only gives us $27M to work with.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

DD took the job on the heels of Sox finishing dead last three out of four years.

 

His first task was to right the ship. Signing Price, trading for Kimbrel and Pom were his first order of business.

 

He then moved towards competing for World Championship by first signing Sale and then adding JD to a lineup that seemed 'soft' the previous year.

 

He completed the pursuit by adding Eovaldi and Pearce at trade deadline.

 

Realistically we shouldn't count on Wright nor Pedey returning at 100% next year. They are incapacitated.

 

My priority would be to sign Eovaldi, then Pearce and if we can squeeze in Kelly then we'll be set. I think we can fill 2B internally. We did it in 2018.

 

Cot's has the Sox at $219M. Our fictitious budget is $246M ($40M plus the luxury tax limit of $206M). That only gives us $27M to work with.

 

Good post. I might put RP'er ahead of Pearce on my list for 2 reasons:

 

1) Losing Kimbrel & Kelly is bigger than losing Pearce.

2) Good 1Bmen are usally easy to acquire mid-season.

 

Plus, we have Chavis, Swihart, Holt and maybe JD who can back up Moreland at 1B to start the season.

[Nick]

Good post. I might put RP'er ahead of Pearce on my list for 2 reasons:

 

1) Losing Kimbrel & Kelly is bigger than losing Pearce.

2) Good 1Bmen are usally easy to acquire mid-season.

 

Plus, we have Chavis, Swihart, Holt and maybe JD who can back up Moreland at 1B to start the season.

 

Would you give Kelly, a 4-year, $28M and Eovaldi a 4-year $60M? Would that get the job done?

[Nick]

C Vaz (1 Betts 2 Beni 3 Moreland 4 JD 5 Xander 6 Devers 7 Vaz 8 Lin 9 JBJ )

1B Moreland

2B Lin?

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Beni

CF JBJ

RF Betts

DH JD

Utility Leon, Nunez, Holt, Swihart

 

SP Price, Sale, Porcello, E Rod, Hector

RP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Scott, Poyner, Thornburg

 

26 players. Is that good enough to win it all?

Edited November 13, 2018 by Nick

[Nick]

Is it also slam dunk that JD will opt out after 2019 instead of 2020?

 

He's paid $23.75M for 2018, 2019 (opt out), and 2020 (opt out). Last two years he'll only get $19.375M.

 

Can he get a 4 year $100M after 2019 if he repeats this year's numbers? Why didn't he get that last year when he was year younger? Plenty of people had opportunity to sign him.

 

I think the championship window exists for two more years if we sign Eovaldi and JD does not opt out. Pablo contract will take care of arbitration raises for 2020.

 

We'll also have Moreland ($6.5M), Porcello ($22M) and Sale's ($15M) coming off the books for 2020. That's $43.5M. That's probably enough to sign one starter to go along with Price, E Rod and Eovaldi. Couple of guys need to step up from our farm system. Maybe Dalbec will be ready to play somewhere along with Chavis. Will our farm ever produce a reliable starting pitcher?

Edited November 13, 2018 by Nick

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen has to be addressed. We almost certainly lose Kimbrel and possibly Kelly as well. This would pretty much decimate an area that most thought was the weakest link on the team last year. Even if we move away from the traditional closer , and just try to mix and match in the late innings, we still need reliable arms in the pen. You obviously don't have the luxury of using your starters in the bullpen during the regular season. There are a few possibilities out there. Britton, Miller and Familia. But it definitely is an area of concern.

[sk7326]

Is it also slam dunk that JD will opt out after 2019 instead of 2020?

 

He's paid $23.75M for 2018, 2019 (opt out), and 2020 (opt out). Last two years he'll only get $19.375M.

 

Can he get a 4 year $100M after 2019 if he repeats this year's numbers? Why didn't he get that last year when he was year younger? Plenty of people had opportunity to sign him.

 

It will be interesting. It is clear the market is not itching to pay tons of money to less athletic 1B/DH sorts (I know JD played the OF, but he is a 1B/DH sort). And often when the guy downturns, it can be an Albert Pujols level cliff.

 

That said, I think the odds are like 50/50. I am not sure he will get many more years from opting out and going back into the pool. He could get more money.

[sk7326]

The bullpen has to be addressed. We almost certainly lose Kimbrel and possibly Kelly as well. This would pretty much decimate an area that most thought was the weakest link on the team last year. Even if we move away from the traditional closer , and just try to mix and match in the late innings, we still need reliable arms in the pen. You obviously don't have the luxury of using your starters in the bullpen during the regular season. There are a few possibilities out there. Britton, Miller and Familia. But it definitely is an area of concern.

 

Every offseason is a good offseason to add relief pitching.