ALDS rehash and ALCS assessment

[Bellhorn04]

Don't blame me. Blame Dombrowski...

 

Trade him for who then?

[notin]

Trade him for who then?

 

Not sure. Up to DD.

 

But we are talking about a guy who didn't exactly win a lot of admirers with his lack of hustle in a post-season game and really, is not all that reliable about showing up for work.

 

The Sox will probably be looking to upgrade in the pen including at closer if they don't re-sign Kimbrel, and possibly at catcher or third base (with Devers maybe sliding across the diamond). They can't afford to have a drunken sailor free agent spending spree and don't have too many marketable prospects. When it comes to trade bait, and DD certainly likes making trades, one has to think Rodriguez and maybe Swihart are both far from untouchable.

 

Maybe a deal involving Rodriguez for Jake Lamb?

[jung]

So its time for me to return to an oft repeated theme of my posts in the regular season game threads, going to the opposite field.

 

Once JBJ just gave up his usual nonsense and decided to try to recover some semblance of performance at the plate by going oppo, it turned his whole season around. While he still has a huge hole right where most LH hitters like the ball (low and inside) the only reason he can hit up and in is because by concentrating on going oppo, his head is not all over the place and his shoulders are not flying open so often. When he finally hit bottom this year, the entire strike zone was a hole for his swing...and 6" either side of it was a hole for his swing.

 

Beni, was really not on track for the season we expected from him until he really focused on oppo in the second half of the season. Beni ended up with more opposite field hits than any MLB player, either league!

 

Add JD, Holt and Vaz and Mookie to Beni and JBJ and we have 6 guys in the "willing to go oppo" hitting corp two of them, Beni and JBJ that recovered their seasons doing it. JBJ might have rescued his career from "defensive specialist" banishment doing it. There is no other team currently still playing nor that began the post season that goes oppo more than the Red Sox and that is what distinguishes this team from the fence crashers that in the main represent MLB these days.

 

The rest of these teams can't move a runner over...they can't hit and run with any consistency. They can't manufacture a run. Witness the Brewers/Dodgers game last night with ducks all over the pond all night long and two teams that could not even get one to 3rd and home. Witness how feeble that Yankee lineup looked when they were not allowed to fence crash.

 

The distinguishing feature of this Red Sox team is that while hitting many more HR's this year than last, they are the only team that entered the post season fully committed to hitting to all fields, moving runners, manufacturing runs.

 

By the way, when the Astros are right they this year were the second best team in baseball at moving runners and manufacturing runs. Guriel is not hitting, Correa is not hitting and now Altuve is limping.

Edited October 17, 2018 by jung

[Maxbialystock]

So its time for me to return to an oft repeated theme of my posts in the regular season game threads, going to the opposite field.

 

Once JBJ just gave up his usual nonsense and decided to try to recover some semblance of performance at the plate by going oppo, it turned his whole season around. While he still has a huge hole right where most LH hitters like the ball (low and inside) the only reason he can hit up and in is because by concentrating on going oppo, his head is not all over the place and his shoulders are not flying open so often. When he finally hit bottom this year, the entire strike zone was a hole for his swing...and 6" either side of it was a hole for his swing.

 

Beni, was really not on track for the season we expected from him until he really focused on oppo in the second half of the season. Beni ended up with more opposite field hits than any MLB player, either league!

 

Add JD, Holt and Vaz and Mookie to Beni and JBJ and we have 6 guys in the "willing to go oppo" hitting corp two of them, Beni and JBJ that recovered their seasons doing it. JBJ might have rescued his career from "defensive specialist" banishment doing it. There is no other team currently still playing nor that began the post season that goes oppo more than the Red Sox and that is what distinguishes this team from the fence crashers that in the main represent MLB these days.

 

The rest of these teams can't move a runner over...they can't hit and run with any consistency. They can't manufacture a run. Witness the Brewers/Dodgers game last night with ducks all over the pond all night long and two teams that could not even get one to 3rd and home. Witness how feeble that Yankee lineup looked when they were not allowed to fence crash.

 

The distinguishing feature of this Red Sox team is that while hitting many more HR's this year than last, they are the only team that entered the post season fully committed to hitting to all fields, moving runners, manufacturing runs.

 

By the way, when the Astros are right they this year were the second best team in baseball at moving runners and manufacturing runs. Guriel is not hitting, Correa is not hitting and now Altuve is limping.

 

Sounds like a hobby horse you are riding--but there can be little doubt that the best way to beat those big shifts is to go to the opposite field and not to try to hit over them. Thus the Sox also seem to be hitting fewer dingers.

 

I wonder is there are collaborative stats about the Yankees who, if anything, seemed to finish the season hitting more home runs. Did they go to the opposite field less than other teams?

[jung]

Sounds like a hobby horse you are riding--but there can be little doubt that the best way to beat those big shifts is to go to the opposite field and not to try to hit over them. Thus the Sox also seem to be hitting fewer dingers.

 

I wonder is there are collaborative stats about the Yankees who, if anything, seemed to finish the season hitting more home runs. Did they go to the opposite field less than other teams?

 

The MFY's didn't move runners over for one thing. They didn't hit behind runners. They certainly did not hit and run effectively. They didn't manufacture runs and neither is anybody else in the post season other than the Red Sox. In fact, other than the Sox, none of these teams hit and run effectively even down in their batting orders where they should be looking to hit and run.

 

There is more to cobbling together a 108 regular season record and having a decent post season offense than hitting HR's. In fact, if hitting HR's is all you do to generate offense, you are not an effective post season team and you are not likely to go very far. The only opposite field hitting the Yankees did is aiming for that short RF porch in the stadium and doinking a HR over the fence.

 

I suspect that if the Astros were the team they can be and have been, they would be doing it almost as much as the Red Sox. Correa and Gurriel are not hitting to any fields, Altuve is limping and Bregman is having a difficult time figuring out what the heck is supposed to do given that dynamic.

Edited October 17, 2018 by jung

[mvp 78]

POINT

 

@PeteAbe

 

#RedSox stayed with 11 pitchers to keep Blake Swihart on the roster.

 

So far in the postseason he has pinch hit in the 8th inning of a 16-1 game and played one inning in the field.

 

They could sure use Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson right about now.

 

COUNTER POINT

 

@billjamesonline

 

If we weren't carrying Swihart we would be reluctant to pinch hit for a catcher. It is carrying Swihart that ENALBES us to pinch hit for the catcher.

[dgalehouse]

Sox took three out of four in eliminating a very good Yankee team. Now they have taken three out of four ( admittedly with some tense moments) from the reigning, defending World Champion Astros. On the verge of dethroning and eliminating an excellent club and moving on to the Fall Classic. Undefeated on the road. Yet , much of Red Sox Nation is nervous , worried , angry and upset. Playoff paranoia running wild.

[S5Dewey]

Sox took three out of four in eliminating a very good Yankee team. Now they have taken three out of four ( admittedly with some tense moments) from the reigning, defending World Champion Astros. On the verge of dethroning and eliminating an excellent club and moving on to the Fall Classic. Undefeated on the road. Yet , much of Red Sox Nation is nervous , worried , angry and upset. Playoff paranoia running wild.

 

Have you been WATCHING these games? We've got reason to be paranoid!

[notin]

Sox took three out of four in eliminating a very good Yankee team. Now they have taken three out of four ( admittedly with some tense moments) from the reigning, defending World Champion Astros. On the verge of dethroning and eliminating an excellent club and moving on to the Fall Classic. Undefeated on the road. Yet , much of Red Sox Nation is nervous , worried , angry and upset. Playoff paranoia running wild.

 

We are nervous because the Astros series hasn't been the only one with tense moments. Remember game 4 against NY?

[dgalehouse]

Have you been WATCHING these games? We've got reason to be paranoid!

 

Of course I have been watching. This is big time post season baseball . Intense pressure and competition. Very exciting. No need to be paranoid. We have a great team. We are 6-2 . What were your expectations ?

[dgalehouse]

We are nervous because the Astros series hasn't been the only one with tense moments. Remember game 4 against NY?

 

Of course I do. We won that one too.

[S5Dewey]

Of course I have been watching. This is big time post season baseball . Intense pressure and competition. Very exciting. No need to be paranoid. We have a great team. We are 6-2 . What were your expectations ?

 

The question of whether you've been watching was rhetorical. I knew the answer. :-)

 

I expected this series to go 6-7 games without the expectation that the Sox would advance. The Astros are a good team as are the Red Sox so to say that I "expected" the Sox to win would be unrealistic. I hoped they'd win but I didn't "expect" them to. I would have expected them to win if they'd been playing, say, Baltimore.

 

The thing I didn't expect was the meltdown of Craig Kimbrel, which leaves the outcome of every game he pitches in doubt. I expect my closer to throw strikes and get people out without giving up multiple baserunners. Hence my paranoia. And hence my statement that we have reason to be paranoid.

[Jasonbay44]

POINT

 

@PeteAbe

 

#RedSox stayed with 11 pitchers to keep Blake Swihart on the roster.

 

So far in the postseason he has pinch hit in the 8th inning of a 16-1 game and played one inning in the field.

 

They could sure use Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson right about now.

 

COUNTER POINT

 

@billjamesonline

 

If we weren't carrying Swihart we would be reluctant to pinch hit for a catcher. It is carrying Swihart that ENALBES us to pinch hit for the catcher.

 

Could really use Hector Velazquez or Brian Johnson? Do we really want them pitching in playoff games? I wouldn't think so. What would they possibly add that E-Rod doesn't? I agree with the second point of it making it easier for Cora to use guys as pinch hit for the catchers. Plus, Moreland clearly isn't right and if something were to happen to say, Pearce, having Swihart as insurance is important IMO.

[oldtimer]

So its time for me to return to an oft repeated theme of my posts in the regular season game threads, going to the opposite field.

 

Once JBJ just gave up his usual nonsense and decided to try to recover some semblance of performance at the plate by going oppo, it turned his whole season around. While he still has a huge hole right where most LH hitters like the ball (low and inside) the only reason he can hit up and in is because by concentrating on going oppo, his head is not all over the place and his shoulders are not flying open so often. When he finally hit bottom this year, the entire strike zone was a hole for his swing...and 6" either side of it was a hole for his swing.

 

Beni, was really not on track for the season we expected from him until he really focused on oppo in the second half of the season. Beni ended up with more opposite field hits than any MLB player, either league!

 

Add JD, Holt and Vaz and Mookie to Beni and JBJ and we have 6 guys in the "willing to go oppo" hitting corp two of them, Beni and JBJ that recovered their seasons doing it. JBJ might have rescued his career from "defensive specialist" banishment doing it. There is no other team currently still playing nor that began the post season that goes oppo more than the Red Sox and that is what distinguishes this team from the fence crashers that in the main represent MLB these days.

 

The rest of these teams can't move a runner over...they can't hit and run with any consistency. They can't manufacture a run. Witness the Brewers/Dodgers game last night with ducks all over the pond all night long and two teams that could not even get one to 3rd and home. Witness how feeble that Yankee lineup looked when they were not allowed to fence crash.

 

The distinguishing feature of this Red Sox team is that while hitting many more HR's this year than last, they are the only team that entered the post season fully committed to hitting to all fields, moving runners, manufacturing runs.

 

By the way, when the Astros are right they this year were the second best team in baseball at moving runners and manufacturing runs. Guriel is not hitting, Correa is not hitting and now Altuve is limping.

 

Funny how both of JBJ's big home runs were hit to right field. Beni also doubled high off the right center field wall last night.

[moonslav59]

So its time for me to return to an oft repeated theme of my posts in the regular season game threads, going to the opposite field.

 

Once JBJ just gave up his usual nonsense and decided to try to recover some semblance of performance at the plate by going oppo, it turned his whole season around. While he still has a huge hole right where most LH hitters like the ball (low and inside) the only reason he can hit up and in is because by concentrating on going oppo, his head is not all over the place and his shoulders are not flying open so often. When he finally hit bottom this year, the entire strike zone was a hole for his swing...and 6" either side of it was a hole for his swing.

 

Beni, was really not on track for the season we expected from him until he really focused on oppo in the second half of the season. Beni ended up with more opposite field hits than any MLB player, either league!

 

Add JD, Holt and Vaz and Mookie to Beni and JBJ and we have 6 guys in the "willing to go oppo" hitting corp two of them, Beni and JBJ that recovered their seasons doing it. JBJ might have rescued his career from "defensive specialist" banishment doing it. There is no other team currently still playing nor that began the post season that goes oppo more than the Red Sox and that is what distinguishes this team from the fence crashers that in the main represent MLB these days.

 

The rest of these teams can't move a runner over...they can't hit and run with any consistency. They can't manufacture a run. Witness the Brewers/Dodgers game last night with ducks all over the pond all night long and two teams that could not even get one to 3rd and home. Witness how feeble that Yankee lineup looked when they were not allowed to fence crash.

 

The distinguishing feature of this Red Sox team is that while hitting many more HR's this year than last, they are the only team that entered the post season fully committed to hitting to all fields, moving runners, manufacturing runs.

 

By the way, when the Astros are right they this year were the second best team in baseball at moving runners and manufacturing runs. Guriel is not hitting, Correa is not hitting and now Altuve is limping.

 

Funny how teams keep putting the shift on the team (with great success) that hits to all fields.

[cp176]

Sox took three out of four in eliminating a very good Yankee team. Now they have taken three out of four ( admittedly with some tense moments) from the reigning, defending World Champion Astros. On the verge of dethroning and eliminating an excellent club and moving on to the Fall Classic. Undefeated on the road. Yet , much of Red Sox Nation is nervous , worried , angry and upset. Playoff paranoia running wild.

 

I think that New England fans are nervous by nature and then you add in the Kimbrel drama and anything goes I guess. I look at this differently. This is a different team with some significantly different people. I'll admit that yes I get a little nervous but I can't help thinking what it must feel like to be an Astros fan right about now. I expect our guys to win. I am not surprised by this at all. As a matter of fact although maybe it seems unlikely, I would not really be surprised if things get wrapped up tonight. We are seeing something special here. The Red Sox are winning more often than everyone else because they are better than everyone else. Yes I do think think they are better than the Astros.

[greenwell]

I think that New England fans are nervous by nature and then you add in the Kimbrel drama and anything goes I guess. I look at this differently. This is a different team with some significantly different people. I'll admit that yes I get a little nervous but I can't help thinking what it must feel like to be an Astros fan right about now. I expect our guys to win. I am not surprised by this at all. As a matter of fact although maybe it seems unlikely, I would not really be surprised if things get wrapped up tonight. We are seeing something special here. The Red Sox are winning more often than everyone else because they are better than everyone else. Yes I do think think they are better than the Astros.

 

I expect the sox to win, but still nervous. Price on short rest and Sale less than 100% could both be tough. I still like our chances if it gets to game 7, but don't want to go there.

[Maxbialystock]

Have you been WATCHING these games? We've got reason to be paranoid!

 

You are of course both right. We should be paranoid, but the Sox have also been fantastic in this postseason.

 

Here's one reason for continued anxiety. Sox ERA so far is 4.13. In 2013 it was 2.59. In 2007 it was 3.29. Clearly, our pitching won't hack it.

 

But guess what the team ERA was in the 2004 postseason? 4.47. And guess what the Astros--you know, best pitching staff in MLB by a country mile--is this postseason? 4.21.

 

So there is hope.

[jacksonianmarch]

Verlander has thrown in three elimination games to this point in his career, and he hasn’t allowed a run. David Price sucks in the playoffs and has never thrown on 3 days rest. Everything points to the Astros bringing this back to Boston. That being said, it’s gonna be real hard for Houston to take both games in the Fens

[moonslav59]

Verlander has thrown in three elimination games to this point in his career, and he hasn’t allowed a run. David Price sucks in the playoffs and has never thrown on 3 days rest. Everything points to the Astros bringing this back to Boston. That being said, it’s gonna be real hard for Houston to take both games in the Fens

 

I thought you were going to say, "that being said, watch the Sox win in 5."

[dgalehouse]

Verlander has thrown in three elimination games to this point in his career, and he hasn’t allowed a run. David Price sucks in the playoffs and has never thrown on 3 days rest. Everything points to the Astros bringing this back to Boston. That being said, it’s gonna be real hard for Houston to take both games in the Fens

 

Sox offense is rolling now. No reason they can't score off of Verlander. Houston is feeling the pressure and making blunders. Look for Boston to end it tonight. It amazes me how people keep underestimating this team. They have been the best all year and they are the best now. They will find a way to win.

[moonslav59]

Sox offense is rolling now. No reason they can't score off of Verlander. Houston is feeling the pressure and making blunders. Look for Boston to end it tonight. It amazes me how people keep underestimating this team. They have been the best all year and they are the best now. They will find a way to win.

 

I totally agree, and being the best does not mean you have to be the very best in every category, position and battling slot.

 

We do pretty well just about everywhere and great in other areas.

 

108 wins was not luck.

 

People talk about all the injuries the Astros had this year, but the last time I remember the Sox getting 30+ starts out of our top 4 starters was back in 2004 (5 starters with 32+ starts).

 

(In 2007, we had 3 guys over 30 and Schill with 24 and in 2013 we had 4 guys over 27 starts.)

[greenwell]

Verlander has thrown in three elimination games to this point in his career, and he hasn’t allowed a run. David Price sucks in the playoffs and has never thrown on 3 days rest. Everything points to the Astros bringing this back to Boston. That being said, it’s gonna be real hard for Houston to take both games in the Fens

 

Gotta love the reverse lock. You've convinced me, the sox will win it tonight.

[S5Dewey]

I totally agree, and being the best does not mean you have to be the very best in every category, position and battling slot.

 

We do pretty well just about everywhere and great in other areas.

 

108 wins was not luck.

 

People talk about all the injuries the Astros had this year, but the last time I remember the Sox getting 30+ starts out of our top 4 starters was back in 2004 (5 starters with 32+ starts).

 

(In 2007, we had 3 guys over 30 and Schill with 24 and in 2013 we had 4 guys over 27 starts.)

 

Injuries? You want to talk about injuries? How about that short guy sitting on the bench with the bad knee? IMO that alone cost the team a few regular season wins (not that it matters) and I'd much rather have a healthy Pedroia out there for the playoffs than anyone we've put at 2B this year.

 

I've asked myself all year how good this team would be if they had Pedroia playing 2B and hitting near the top of the order. I find that scary - to everyone else in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Injuries? You want to talk about injuries? How about that short guy sitting on the bench with the bad knee? IMO that alone cost the team a few regular season wins (not that it matters) and I'd much rather have a healthy Pedroia out there for the playoffs than anyone we've put at 2B this year.

 

I've asked myself all year how good this team would be if they had Pedroia playing 2B and hitting near the top of the order. I find that scary - to everyone else in MLB.

 

Good point. Plus, not having Sale hardly at all since way back...

[Maxbialystock]

Here's a thought. Anyone else remember the ALCS in 2004 and the one in 2007? Both years the Sox were exactly where the Astros are right now, down 1-3 in games. Then both times the Sox took three straight.

 

I think Houston has that potential, so every Sox fan who is inclined to worry now officially has a sound basis for doing so. I have spoken.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with one point above. The Astros look like a team that hasn’t been here before and the Sox look like the defending champs. The Astros are playing not to lose at this point. They’ve lost their edge

[cp176]

Here's a thought. Anyone else remember the ALCS in 2004 and the one in 2007? Both years the Sox were exactly where the Astros are right now, down 1-3 in games. Then both times the Sox took three straight.

 

I think Houston has that potential, so every Sox fan who is inclined to worry now officially has a sound basis for doing so. I have spoken.

 

I'm really kind of glad though Max that you don't speak for me. lol

[cp176]

I totally agree, and being the best does not mean you have to be the very best in every category, position and battling slot.

 

We do pretty well just about everywhere and great in other areas.

 

108 wins was not luck.

 

People talk about all the injuries the Astros had this year, but the last time I remember the Sox getting 30+ starts out of our top 4 starters was back in 2004 (5 starters with 32+ starts).

 

(In 2007, we had 3 guys over 30 and Schill with 24 and in 2013 we had 4 guys over 27 starts.)

 

I like and of course agree with this post. No one is going to say that the Astros don't have a couple of the best players in the game - I really have enjoyed Bregman. I particularly love how he plays the game. Altove is of course playing hurt but still is certainly one of the best in the game. But we also have 2 or 3 of the best players in the game plus the rest of our guys - I will continue to think that they are the best team in baseball until someone comes close to proving this wrong.

[dgalehouse]

I agree with one point above. The Astros look like a team that hasn’t been here before and the Sox look like the defending champs. The Astros are playing not to lose at this point. They’ve lost their edge

 

The Astros are not playing like champs. They look shell shocked , nervous and tight. Kemp trying to take second on Mookie , three runs down , is one of the all time post season bone head plays. How about Correa blowing a double play by missing second base. Not to mention White , the pinch hitter who stood there like a statue with the bat on his shoulder .