Sale velocity thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale averaged 90.1mph with his FB yesterday, the lowest velo in a game in his career. One has to assume he’s as much a wild card as any for the Sox. His struggles really magnify what could be an interesting rotation dilemma for the Sox in the ALDS

[Kimmi]

Sale averaged 90.1mph with his FB yesterday, the lowest velo in a game in his career. One has to assume he’s as much a wild card as any for the Sox. His struggles really magnify what could be an interesting rotation dilemma for the Sox in the ALDS

 

I think it's wishful thinking on your part Jacko. I think he'll get it figured out by then. Our rotation will be fine.

 

You need to worry about your own rotation. Then again, you might not make it far enough to even have that worry.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it's wishful thinking on your part Jacko. I think he'll get it figured out by then. Our rotation will be fine.

 

You need to worry about your own rotation. Then again, you might not make it far enough to even have that worry.

 

Certainly possible, but I think you are wishful thinking on Sale. Something is up for sure.

[moonslav59]

Sale averaged 90.1mph with his FB yesterday, the lowest velo in a game in his career. One has to assume he’s as much a wild card as any for the Sox. His struggles really magnify what could be an interesting rotation dilemma for the Sox in the ALDS

 

Are you sure?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

[Carpin]

I might be wrong, but I don't see Sale last game, the chart only has 26 games and he has started 27

[Slasher9]

Lol. Yeah...Jacksonianmarch is not trolling.

[fxkatt]

I think speed is a problem--unless Sale was in hold-back mode. But he also threw 100 pitches in 5 innings, which is not too promising.

 

However, in the Yanks series, it may not matter too much, since Severino will pitch on Tuesday, and would only get one start vs. Sox (if my math is right). So you have Happ and some question marks to rely on in the four other games. Despite my little concerns I like the Sox odds.

 

If there is a Sale problem, I think it would present much more in the subsequent longer series.

[sk7326]

Not a great game and Sale has to make sure he is ready to go. That said he still whiffed 8 of 19 batters he faced ... so life isn't that terrible.

[fxkatt]

Not a great game and Sale has to make sure he is ready to go. That said he still whiffed 8 of 19 batters he faced ... so life isn't that terrible.

 

Good point. If he can give us 6 innings and strike out 9, I'm sure all will be fine.

[moonslav59]

Good point. If he can give us 6 innings and strike out 9, I'm sure all will be fine.

 

I'm going with 6 IP 12 Ks and 1 ER.

[FredLynn]

Certainly possible, but I think you are wishful thinking on Sale. Something is up for sure.

 

I have to agree with Jacko here...something is up for sure. Maybe Sale will get it figured out before his next start; maybe he is just injured and we aren't being told the extent of it. Sale was quoted as saying that he wasn't where he hoped to be right now, and I don't think its a rope-a-dope. I think he wants to pitch and while I appreciate his competitive nature its pretty clear that he is not right.

[moonslav59]

I have to agree with Jacko here...something is up for sure. Maybe Sale will get it figured out before his next start; maybe he is just injured and we aren't being told the extent of it. Sale was quoted as saying that he wasn't where he hoped to be right now, and I don't think its a rope-a-dope. I think he wants to pitch and while I appreciate his competitive nature its pretty clear that he is not right.

 

He's got 9 or 10 days off before game 1.

 

We'll see.

[S5Dewey]

I think it's wishful thinking on your part Jacko. I think he'll get it figured out by then. Our rotation will be fine.

 

You need to worry about your own rotation. Then again, you might not make it far enough to even have that worry.

 

OUCH! That's going to leave a mark!!

[sk7326]

Good point. If he can give us 6 innings and strike out 9, I'm sure all will be fine.

 

The Orioles obviously suck - but if you're striking out 40% of guys you face, the stuff can't be that bad. Granted, the last time he saw them he struck out 12 of the 16 batters he faced, so it's a dropoff there. But again, striking out 75% of the hitters you face is absurd. (Seriously, that was a higher rate than Clemens hit in his 20 strikeout game in 1986)

[Carpin]

Are you sure?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

It's updated now, the difference it's HUGE!!

[notin]

It's updated now, the difference it's HUGE!!

 

He had one other game this year with that velocity. It was against Atlanta. While the Braves did get 6 runs against him, he still managed to strike out 8 hitters in 4.1 IP...

[Carpin]

He had one other game this year with that velocity. It was against Atlanta. While the Braves did get 6 runs against him, he still managed to strike out 8 hitters in 4.1 IP...

 

he has enough pitches to be effective, the point is that it's a big coincidence to have this drop in velocity coming out of "shoulder issue", I'm sure he can be effective even with a drop in velocity, but something is going up or, probably he was just holding back and not putting a lot of effort in his pitches.

[notin]

he has enough pitches to be effective, the point is that it's a big coincidence to have this drop in velocity coming out of "shoulder issue", I'm sure he can be effective even with a drop in velocity, but something is going up or, probably he was just holding back and not putting a lot of effort in his pitches.

 

He might be holding back. These last few games mean nothing and his primary goal should be to get back in game shape without getting hurt...

[BillyWilliams]

he has enough pitches to be effective, the point is that it's a big coincidence to have this drop in velocity coming out of "shoulder issue", I'm sure he can be effective even with a drop in velocity, but something is going up or, probably he was just holding back and not putting a lot of effort in his pitches.

 

I doubt that considering his post game comments.

[Maxbialystock]

jacksonianmarch might be trolling, but he certainly has a point. You can't ignore his last outing. it's not definitive, but is worrisome, especially if the Yankees are in the ALDS.

 

Also, it's not just the one game. He was great in July, went on the DL, came back, and has been up and down since then. He has not pitched more than 5 innings since July 27. Since going on the DL in July-August (2 weeks), he has pitched in 5 games. He was super in the first one on August 12: 5 inning, 12 K's, 1 hit, 0 runs, and 68 pitches. But since then, 1 inning, 3 inngs, 3.1 innings (2 earned runs), and 4.2 innings (3 earned runs vs. Orioles and 92 pitches).

 

Then there's the whole issue of earlier seasons, especially 2017, running out of gas in September/Oct.

[Maxbialystock]

About Sale being effective with a fast ball in the low 90's. He has always been a power pitcher and thrives on it, so mixing things up will be a big change and I think require a lot more than one game (see para below about that game) to make the adjustment.

 

Also, he basically throws just two breaking pitches--slider and changeup. Both are good, but don't have sharp breaks and I think depend on the fastball being really fast. If the Orioles lineup can get 3 runs in 4.2 innings when Sale is going with his low 90's fast ball (even high 80s), I think the Yankees can give him some grief.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lots of heads in the sand

[Maxbialystock]

Lots of heads in the sand

 

We're entitled.

 

The only head that needs to stay out of the sand is Cora's. He knows all of what I wrote and a lot more. So I can't believe he isn't thinking about options, the simplest of which is to tell Wright or someone like him to be ready to go early. That doesn't mean to warm up, only to be mentally ready. Eovaldi might be an even better choice.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you're right. Almost to the point of watching Sale's warmup and being willing to scratch him immediately before the game

[Maxbialystock]

If he struggle or flops, it will be such a shame because to me he has been the consummate ace: great stuff, never challenges signals, stays focused, gives his all, and really fields his position well. I have no idea how he is around people and other players, but to me he sets a great example. I'm trying to say he really deserves to do well in the postseason.

[Slasher9]

Sale could throw 0 pitches in teh ALDS and if we face the yankees we will still advance.

thats how much better we are.

if its oakland? more competitive but we still advance. the loss of Sale will be felt more in ALCS (if he's lost).

[Slasher9]

I doubt that considering his post game comments.

 

oh fun. your still here.

excited for the play in game?

[Maxbialystock]

Sale could throw 0 pitches in teh ALDS and if we face the yankees we will still advance.

thats how much better we are.

if its oakland? more competitive but we still advance. the loss of Sale will be felt more in ALCS (if he's lost).

 

Could you 'splain that please.

[Slasher9]

Could you 'splain that please.

 

i like our hitters vs either of the 2 possible ALDS opponents. i am not afraid of either pitching staff. i believe our offense goes off vs either of them.

i believe we will struggle more on offense in the ALCS vs either of the 2 possible contenders. they have + arms that can shut us down. in that scenario i would like to have Sale for 1, 4, 7.

[vegasbob]

Despite the Dl stints and carefully managed pitch counts, Sale has delivered 29 innings since thwe A-S break in 7 starts ( 4.1 average). If this was a fake-out move to confuse his playoff opposition then it has been masterful. The reality is much more like Chris Sale has a chronic shoulder inflammation problem exacerbated by his normally high torque, violent delivery . I believe he is hurt but will try to gut it out based on his competitive personality. The results will speak for themselves.

 

I would give it a 33% chance he pitches one game in the off season, 33% he makes 2 starts, 33% that he dominates and wins 2 games, and 1% that he is actually fine and going the rope-a-dope route. I think there is a 50% + chance that he will have some type of corrective surgery procedure on the shoulder this off season and they will keep him sidelined until about the A-S break in 2019.