Dave Dombrowski

[dgalehouse]

We are fortunate that our current ownership has never embraced the theory of what many of our fans think the "farm" exists for. Our lower level talent pool really does have some interesting kids there. As long as Henry keeps the club and has DD as the GM, this team competes for many many years. Let's go. Someone here said that DD traded away "elite" pieces to acquire Sale and Kimbrel. What really makes any of those traded elite? We have a young team, an excellent GM, and an owner who seems to identify with doing what it takes to win. Not just now but year after year. with respect to this elite talent (lol) that was traded away, sorry I for one am very content with the players that they were used to bring in for us.

 

Since they call it a farm system , I like to use the farm analogy . There is a time to sow and a time to reap. You can't hold on to the crop forever. You have to harvest it. Keep what you need and take the rest to market. If you can market our prospects for some of the best players in the game , you do it. More young players of that caliber , and better , are coming along all the time.

[Kimmi]

The biggest gamble I see in signing Mookie to a long term contract at "whatever it costs" is that we don't know what salaries are going to be when Mookie turns 28. With the current escalation of salaries what he might sign for today could be a pittance of what he could sign for in three years. Or, if this escalation ends it could be an overpay.

 

IMO he has the skills - the "tools", if you will - to be productive in 10 years barring injuries. If the decision were mine I'd take the chance. As I've said before, I'd hand him a blank signed contract and tell him to fill in the blanks. (Not quite literally do that, but I think you can see what I mean).

 

I think most Red Sox fans would take the chance on Mookie, and I can understand why they feel that way.

 

I think the most I would go is an 8 year extension from now, meaning 6 years from when he becomes a free agent.

 

And even that is more than I'd prefer.

[SoxHop]

You folks can argue about what you think Betts is worth and for how many years. No one here knows nor does anyone really know what John Henry will pay to keep him. At some point, they will sit down with Mookie and find out just how much it will take to keep him and how many years as well. I would be stunned if he gets away. He is a great young baseball talent for sure but that is only part of it. His smile, his attitude, and the way he approaches the game make him the face of this franchise. You want kids to come to the games dragging their parents along Betts is the one who can draw them. As long as he is in Boston, he will bring in the big money.

 

He's brings the most fun to watching the game I've had in a long time. The dude is just super cool. Like epic cool. I think he kind of has surpassed my previous favorite players, or at least on the charts of how much fun I have watching the guy. Pedro won't go down without a fight.

 

I think Betts should play Han Solo in the next Star Wars movie.

[Kimmi]

8 years, 280 million, AAV of 35 million would seem to be in the ballpark.

 

From when he reaches free agency?

 

Yikes, that makes me shudder. Beyond just the years, the $35 million AAV makes me shudder as well.

[Kimmi]

Good idea. Why not take it further and make it $1M a year for the final 10 years, where he could be used as a coach, if he's done playing by then.

 

$300M x 10 plus $1M x 10= $310M/20 ($15.5M AVV).

 

You guys are just talking crazy now.

[Spudboy]

You guys are just talking crazy now.

 

I'm not.

 

I go six years max. 27-35 per.

 

My contract ideas are still pretty f***ed.

 

But I always hate long term-big dollar deals.

[moonslav59]

I've often made lists of all the largest and longest deals in MLB and how so many of them were failures or near failures- some even from day 1.

 

However, I feel Mookie is different, and I don't think it's because of homerism or bias.

 

He'll be younger than most free agents, and his skillset looks like it will age well. He'll turn 28 right before his FA winter. A 10 year deal would give us 6 years before he turns 34 and 4 years from ages 34 to 37. It's not like Pujols.

[SoxHop]

I'm not.

 

I go six years max. 27-35 per.

 

My contract ideas are still pretty f***ed.

 

But I always hate long term-big dollar deals.

 

He's gone if that's the best you can do. Imagine he walks away?

 

I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong. His contract singing is going to be a pain in the ass.

[S5Dewey]

I've often made lists of all the largest and longest deals in MLB and how so many of them were failures or near failures- some even from day 1.

 

However, I feel Mookie is different, and I don't think it's because of homerism or bias.

 

He'll be younger than most free agents, and his skillset looks like it will age well. He'll turn 28 right before his FA winter. A 10 year deal would give us 6 years before he turns 34 and 4 years from ages 34 to 37. It's not like Pujols.

 

I don't see any reason he wouldn't be productive at age 37. He may not be the best player in baseball at 37 but he'll still be someone we want out there.

[Jack Flap]

I think Betts should play Han Solo in the next Star Wars movie.

 

Cool idea, but I think his schedule is going to be full playing James Bond.

[Bellhorn04]

He's gone if that's the best you can do. Imagine he walks away?

 

I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong. His contract singing is going to be a pain in the ass.

 

As much as we all love him, this is very true.

[Bellhorn04]

From when he reaches free agency?

 

Yikes, that makes me shudder. Beyond just the years, the $35 million AAV makes me shudder as well.

 

Oh I know, it's shudder-worthy for sure.

 

But Zack Greinke is the current AAV bar-holder at very close to 35 million.

[notin]

Since they call it a farm system , I like to use the farm analogy . There is a time to sow and a time to reap. You can't hold on to the crop forever. You have to harvest it. Keep what you need and take the rest to market. If you can market our prospects for some of the best players in the game , you do it. More young players of that caliber , and better , are coming along all the time.

 

You do realize this isn't always true, right?

[notin]

I don't see any reason he wouldn't be productive at age 37. He may not be the best player in baseball at 37 but he'll still be someone we want out there.

 

Albert Pujols, mentioned in the post you replied to, had a .672OPS at age 37. This is comparable to the OPS of the Sox players fans complain about like Bradley and Nunez.

 

I would never assume a 37yo is going to even be good, let alone someone we want out there. Pedroia is only 34 and fans want him to voluntarily retire and forego the remainder of the his deal...

[Bellhorn04]

The question nobody who accuses DD of decimating the farm system can really answer is how else he was supposed to assemble a good pitching staff from what he was left with.

[notin]

The question nobody who accuses DD of decimating the farm system can really answer is how else he was supposed to assemble a good pitching staff from what he was left with.

 

Outside of Sale, exactly who did he acquire with all the prospects that rebuilt this staff again?

[Bellhorn04]

Outside of Sale, exactly who did he acquire with all the prospects that rebuilt this staff again?

 

Well, I'm not going for the 'outside of Sale' thing. Nice try though.

 

Sale

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

Thornburg

C Smith

 

Right now at least 2 out of 5 of those moves look bad, of course. But that's not really the point. The point is that the pitching staff was in tatters and absolutely necessitated acquisitions by trade or by free agency for the team to contend for the division.

[notin]

Well, I'm not going for the 'outside of Sale' thing. Nice try though.

 

Sale

Pomeranz

Kimbrel

Thornburg

C Smith

 

Right now at least 2 out of 5 of those moves look bad, of course. But that's not really the point. The point is that the pitching staff was in tatters and absolutely necessitated acquisitions by trade or by free agency for the team to contend for the division.

 

Thornburg and Smith are not really great supports for your argument. Pomeranz has definitely fallen out of favor despite a good last year. So it's Sale and a closer.

 

Why do you keep saying Dombrowski had n pitching and had to rebuild the entire staff? He did inherit Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree and Workman. Or do you think Thornburg and Smith are more important than the bulk of the staff?

 

Side note - which acquistion took more baseball accumen - emptying the farm for Chris Sale or trading a pending free agent for Rick Porcello? Chris Sale and his talent were hardly a secret to anyone with a pulse. But why is it when a GM acquires a player like Porcello and watches him turn into a high level pitcher, it is written off as "luck"?

[Bellhorn04]

Why do you keep saying Dombrowski had n pitching and had to rebuild the entire staff? He did inherit Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, Hembree and Workman. Or do you think Thornburg and Smith are more important than the bulk of the staff?

 

Look at their 2015 numbers and health status, please. That's what DD was looking at.

[oldtimer]

You guys are just talking crazy now.

 

I still like the idea of setting a budget for the team, in the form of a pay pyramid with the most valuable guys at the top but with an eye on paying all the players. If you pay enormous amounts for one or two players that takes away from what can be paid to the more journeyman types, who nevertheless contribute to the team. The league really sets the total amount available and assuming the big market teams will be willing to pay that much, then the distribution among the players can be argued, but clearly has to leave enough to get quality supporting players.

 

As far as the length of time allowed for a contract, I see it as dependent upon the age of the player. Most players start to decline in their early 30's and by their mid 30's the change in capability becomes evident. Then their are injuries which haunt the careers of most players. Pitchers are in a special category as few of them are still able to produce into their later 30's so the risk goes up. Most pitchers also incur injuries so are more fragile. I would set the 10 year limit on the absolute star who is 25 or 26. Between 27 and 30 I would go with 7 or 8 years, just over 30 5 years and 33 up maybe 2 or 3 years as an upper limit.

 

Historically, we will be carrying Pedey for a few years, perhaps as a reward for his long and valuable service. Panda was a mistake and Price might turn out to become a burden. If we lose a guy when staying within reasonable guidelines it is too bad, but remember, other teams are accepting the risk that management sets as being too high for us to accept. In the long run, being prudent should work out the best.

[notin]

Look at their 2015 numbers and health status, please. That's what DD was looking at.

 

If your argument for Dombrowski's ability to evaluate pitching hinges on him reviewing one year of data, you're not winning me over.

 

This guy is and has always been in a position to be an evaluator of talent. And he certainly knew Porcello before he got here...

[Bellhorn04]

If your argument for Dombrowski's ability to evaluate pitching hinges on him reviewing one year of data, you're not winning me over.

 

Fair enough, but go ahead and expand the 2015 staff's numbers to their career numbers and it doesn't change much.

[S5Dewey]

Albert Pujols, mentioned in the post you replied to, had a .672OPS at age 37. This is comparable to the OPS of the Sox players fans complain about like Bradley and Nunez.

 

I would never assume a 37yo is going to even be good, let alone someone we want out there. Pedroia is only 34 and fans want him to voluntarily retire and forego the remainder of the his deal...

 

Of course in talking about that .672 of Albert's you're only talking about the offensive side of the ball. IMO Mookie is the defensive player Pujols wishes he was. As with JBJ, I'll take that .672 when it comes along with great outfield defense. IMO Mookie is of the body type that won't be as heavy as Pujols is, which will help Mookie's defense.

 

Of course there are no guarantees with these contracts or even how salaries might escalate. Ten years is a long time in baseball years. Ten years ago it was 2008 and Boston was 4th in team payroll @ 133MM. In 2017 the Sox had an opening day 3rd highest payroll at ~$200MM. It increased buy ~50% over 9 years. It's not unreasonable to think that a $30M salary for Mookie when he's 37 may be in line with other salaries.

 

(I found it interesting that the last place Rays had a team payroll of just under $22M. In 2018 there are 21 players with a salary >$22M!).

 

I haven't seen much of an outcry for Pedey to retire and forfeit the rest of his salary except from one poster. (You know who you are, MVP! LOL) The suggestion I put forward earlier was that he retire, forfeit the rest of his contract AND be re-signed to a coaching contract for the same AAV as his original salary.

[notin]

Fair enough, but go ahead and expand the 2015 staff's numbers to their career numbers and it doesn't change much.

 

Porcello is the same pitcher he was in 2015? Or Kelly or Hembree? And certainly Roriguez’ career numbers in 2015 were premature.

 

Really Dombrowski has run this team the way a fan would - chase a lot of big name players for short term success. This is what he did in Detroit,too. And look at them.

 

Now in Detroit, he did see something he liked in JD Martinez and his gamble on him was extremely successful. If he can do something like that again, it can mitigate the financial aspect of having no farm...

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello is the same pitcher he was in 2015? Or Kelly or Hembree? And certainly Roriguez’ career numbers in 2015 were premature.

 

The point is the 2016 pitching staff shaped up as pretty terrible without some moves. E-Rod was a work in progress.

 

Obviously DD was given a mandate by Henry to turn things around quick. Missing the playoffs again in 2016 wasn't going to be acceptable. Henry said it would be a 'disaster', in fact, in Papi's final season.

[Bellhorn04]

This argument about the Sale deal that 'anyone could have done that' irks me too. What matters is that DD was the one who did it. He seized the opportunity.

 

Are Yankee fans consoled by the fact that Cashman could have done this too? I'm thinking not.

[Dojji]

The question nobody who accuses DD of decimating the farm system can really answer is how else he was supposed to assemble a good pitching staff from what he was left with.

Honestly most of the people who complained about this do realize why it was done.

 

It helps that the players we acquired are mostly in their 20s. If they can bridge until the farm can regenerate then it was a good gamble, and even if not, if we win some postseason banners, it is still worth it

[Spudboy]

This argument about the Sale deal that 'anyone could have done that' irks me too. What matters is that DD was the one who did it. He seized the opportunity.

 

Boom.

[Dojji]

Porcello is the same pitcher he was in 2015? Or Kelly or Hembree? And certainly Roriguez’ career numbers in 2015 were premature.

 

Really Dombrowski has run this team the way a fan would - chase a lot of big name players for short term success. This is what he did in Detroit,too. And look at them.

 

Now in Detroit, he did see something he liked in JD Martinez and his gamble on him was extremely successful. If he can do something like that again, it can mitigate the financial aspect of having no farm...

 

DD has run the team the way a fan wishes he could have run it. A real fan wouldn't have been anywhere near as efficient

[Kimmi]

I'm not.

 

I go six years max. 27-35 per.

 

My contract ideas are still pretty f***ed.

 

But I always hate long term-big dollar deals.

 

Even the $35 mil a year is hard to take, but if that allows us to sign for fewer years, I'd do it.